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Markets · Options · Signal
June 12, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:07 ET
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S&P 500
739.97
+0.30%
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Nasdaq
718.72
+0.22%
|
Dow
511.86
+0.49%
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Russell 2k
293.73
+1.14%
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VIX
18.85
-3.03%
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20Y Bond
85.53
-0.52%
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Gold
384.67
-0.43%
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Silver
60.18
-1.05%
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Oil
129.06
+0.18%
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USD
27.96
+0.05%
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CNN Fear & Greed
31
Fear
wk -11 · mo -35
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 722.71 |
Res: 744.85 |
RSI: 50.0 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 686.37 |
Res: 721.21 |
RSI: 53.0 |
|
Econ Calendar |
2 high-impact · Fri Jun 12 – Fri Jun 12 · as of 10:07 ET |
| Fri Jun 12 |
| 02:00 |
GB |
GDP (MoM) (Apr) — est. -0.1%, prev. 0.3% |
| 02:00 |
DE |
German CPI (MoM) (May) — est. -0.2%, prev. 0.6% |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.05% |
-8bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.45% |
-10bps |
| Spread |
+40bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
99.75 |
-0.11% |
| VIX/3M |
0.89 |
Contango |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2682
$103.30 · $385.12
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z -1.22 · Watch · ρ 86%
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| BTC |
$63,283 |
-0.2% |
| ETH |
$1,661 |
-1.1% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0262 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
10:10 ET |
|
Materials
+1.69%
XLB
|
Energy
+1.30%
XLE
|
Utilities
+1.03%
XLU
|
|
Real Estate
+1.02%
XLRE
|
Technology
+0.87%
XLK
|
Financials
+0.77%
XLF
|
|
Industrials
+0.58%
XLI
|
Cons. Staples
+0.04%
XLP
|
Health Care
-0.12%
XLV
|
|
Communication
-0.62%
XLC
|
Cons. Discr.
-0.69%
XLY
|
In today's BULL regime, we're seeing a rotation into defensive-yielding sectors like Utilities, alongside cyclical strength in Materials and Energy, outpacing lagging Health Care.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 12 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a bull regime for 12 days, with the S&P 500 up 0.30% and Russell 2k leading the charge with a 1.14% move, while yields are expected to rise further to tackle inflation. Worth watching is the divergence between the bullish equity tone and the hawkish rate commentary from ECB's Kazimir, while Goldman traders see rates markets fairly pricing the Fed path.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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|
Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:09 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
|
R
mixed
16
“Daily Discussion Thread for June 12, 2026”
WSB 264 pts · 5/5 subs
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QQQ
mixed
16
“Imagine losing money on calls today”
WSB 72 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
MSFT
bullish
13
“Market is up but MSFT is down”
WSB 83 pts · 5/5 subs
|
SPY
mixed
11
“Bought 2 minutes before the news dropped.”
WSB 557 pts · 5/5 subs
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MOM
mixed
10
“White hot PPI in May: 1.1% MoM and 6.5% YoY”
WSB 1602 pts · 4/5 subs
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RKLB
mixed
8
“NASDAQ adds five companies to NASDAQ-100 index in quarterly rebalance”
WSB 356 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
SPCE
mixed
6
“Oh no. Everyone confused the tickers and are accidentally selling SPCE.”
WSB 682 pts · 4/5 subs
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BRK
bearish
6
“Hey everybody, all of a sudden the war, the oil supply shock, and the inflation …”
STK 608 pts
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|
Insider Wire |
3483 Form 4s filed · 10:07 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-06-07 to 2026-06-12
Executives and insiders are dumping shares ahead of earnings, particularly in tech, with notable sales by CEOs and CFOs in the tech hardware and semiconductor sectors.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
DELL |
Silver Lake Partners IV, … Insider |
$32.5M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$19.8M |
| SELL |
DELL |
Silver Lake Partners V DE… Insider |
$13.7M |
| SELL |
vicr |
VINCIARELLI PATRIZIO Chairman and CEO |
$5.6M |
| SELL |
vicr |
VINCIARELLI PATRIZIO Chairman and CEO |
$5.5M |
| SELL |
UCTT |
Savage Sheri CFO |
$1.3M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:10 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.1% |
5.4d |
+2.5% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
27.8% |
2.6d |
+12.3% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
16.5% |
1.7d |
-7.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| SOFI |
14.7% |
2.5d |
+15.7% |
LOW
|
| GME |
14.4% |
6.2d |
-0.7% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
14.1% |
4.6d |
+1.8% |
MODERATE
|
| CVNA |
13.6% |
6.0d |
+4.1% |
MODERATE
|
| MSTR |
11.4% |
2.5d |
-7.6% |
LOW
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|
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8132 scanned · 74 SEC-confirmed· 4 red · 47 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| LOAR |
0.49 |
0.85 |
0.67 |
65% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEVLADDER |
RED
|
| MNPR |
0.39 |
0.85 |
0.46 |
68% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
RED
|
| FTK |
0.59 |
0.65 |
0.46 |
54% |
GRINDADDELEV |
RED
|
| WS |
0.35 |
0.85 |
0.45 |
52% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.59 |
0.10 |
0.59 |
76% |
PREELEV |
YELLOW
|
| RBCAA |
0.31 |
0.65 |
0.48 |
98% |
PREGRINDADDELEVATMDDUP? |
YELLOW
|
| TRNS |
0.18 |
0.85 |
0.45 |
50% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| AMRX |
0.29 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
46% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| MLAB |
0.08 |
0.85 |
0.41 |
26% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| CBIO |
0.53 |
0.10 |
0.40 |
79% |
ELEVATM* |
YELLOW
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+ 41 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:07 ET |
ECB’s Kazimir Says Rates Must Be Lifted More to Tackle Inflation
BBG 10m ago
The ECB's commitment to tackling inflation, as stated by Kazimir, implies that interest rates may need to rise further. This could lead to a stronger EUR and higher short-term yields, potentially flattening the yield curve. Keep an eye on upcoming ECB meeting minutes and inflation data for further guidance on the central bank's future actions.
| BBG |
Rates Markets ‘Fairly Pricing’ Fed Path, Goldman Trader Says
According to a Goldman trader, rates markets are fairly pricing in the Fed's expected path, suggesting that interest rates may remain stable with minimal reaction to future Fed announcements. However, a hawkish Fed statement or strong economic data could still lead to a slight repricing. Monitor upcoming economic data and Fed speakers for potential surprises.
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1h ago |
| FJ |
SpaceX shares are expected to open at $174 in its NASDAQ debut vs IPO price of $135 per share. $SPCX
With SpaceX shares expected to open at $174 in its NASDAQ debut, investors may be positioning for a strong performance. Initial trading volatility is possible, and it's essential to monitor trading activity and investor sentiment. The IPO's success could have implications for the broader market and future IPOs.
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15m ago |
| FJ |
UniCredit on SpaceX: Mega IPOs Can Move Sentiment, but Only for a While - FJElite
UniCredit suggests that the SpaceX IPO may have a short-term impact on market sentiment but is unlikely to lead to a sustained market trend. Investors may be looking beyond the IPO hype and focusing on fundamentals. Keep an eye on market sentiment and trading activity to gauge the IPO's lasting impact.
|
52m ago |
| BBG |
Anticipation Building at Nasdaq for SpaceX IPO
As anticipation builds for the SpaceX IPO, investors are positioning for a potentially strong debut. The IPO's success could drive initial trading volatility, followed by a stabilization of the stock price. Monitor trading activity and investor sentiment to gauge the market's reaction.
|
46m ago |
| FT |
The great bond and equity conundrum
The current conundrum between bond and equity markets may be driven by differing expectations for economic growth and inflation. Investors are faced with a challenging environment, and a shift in sentiment could lead to changes in asset allocation. Keep an eye on economic data and market sentiment to better understand the dynamics at play.
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10h ago |
| FJ |
MOO Imbalance
|
36m ago |
| MW |
JPMorgan says investors are overlooking the upside to Wall Street banks that comes from SpaceX and other mega IPOs
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2h ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:07 ET |
| FJ |
ECB Rate Hike Path Unclear
ECB's Kazimir sees resilient economy but warns of second-round inflation effects
|
10m ago |
| FJ |
Iran Deal Uncertainty
Iran and US MOU under review, no final decision on nuclear understanding
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50m ago |
| FJ |
UK Economic Outlook
UK inflation to average 3.3%, growth 1.0% in 2026, BoE to hold rates
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2h ago |
| FJ |
US Sentiment Improves
University of Michigan sentiment index beats forecast, inflation expectations ease
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7m ago |
| FJ |
Global Risk Monitor
Geopolitical tensions persist, Iran and US engage in diplomacy
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9m ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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CASY
$905.34
-1.2%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 76 |
1M +5.6% |
3M +35.9% |
1Y +86.8% |
DOWN |
Casey's General Store (CASY) reported a strong quarter, leveraging soaring fuel prices into profit. The company is self-funding growth, driving cash flow, buying back shares, and paying dividends, with a recent dividend hike. Market optimism on peace hopes and PPI data may boost CASY, but geopolitical tensions and rate uncertainty could impact performance.
|
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INTC
$122.05
+4.3%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 49 |
1M -11.3% |
3M +136.6% |
1Y +384.8% |
DOWN |
Intel stock jumped after a double upgrade from BofA analysts, citing a CPU growth opportunity. The stock has a 1Y return of +384.8% and an analyst target price of $87. However, the HMM regime is in CRISIS, and the 1M return is -11.3%, posing a risk to the upside thesis.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
52 / 4 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
63 / 4 / 1
|
2026-06-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
61 / 5 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| META |
Buy |
63 / 9 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| SNDK |
Buy |
25 / 4 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| CSCO |
Buy |
23 / 10 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
38 / 15 / 2
|
2026-06-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Jun 12 |
SPCX
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP
|
— |
$86.2B |
| Jun 18 |
FCBM
First Carolina Financial Services, Inc.
|
— |
$101M |
|
Congressional Trades |
6 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| James E Hon Banks |
PTON |
Sale |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Gilbert Cisneros |
COO |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Gilbert Cisneros |
TCBI |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Gilbert Cisneros |
HQY |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Gilbert Cisneros |
SFTBY |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Gilbert Cisneros |
TSLA |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
CUPR
+197.9%
$7.18
UBXG
+61.3%
$7.72
VSME
+58.6%
$1.76
AKAN
+55.2%
$23.88
DSY
+50.3%
$5.83
Top Losers
PMNT
-43.1%
$0.14
SNBR
-40.0%
$0.40
GELS
-38.6%
$0.94
SMSI
-36.3%
$2.90
NTCL
-33.7%
$0.27
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:10 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
433,646 |
249,243 |
184,403 |
0.74
|
$750C 27,795 vol |
| SPY: Call-heavy flow with $750C hot, suggests bullish positioning in a strong market. |
| QQQ |
279,209 |
143,979 |
135,230 |
0.94
|
$720C 12,067 vol |
| QQQ: Mixed flow, near-neutral P/C ratio, no clear directional signal. |
| TSLA |
181,106 |
120,279 |
60,827 |
0.51
|
$405C 10,980 vol |
| TSLA: Aggressive call buying, P/C=0.51, indicates bullish bet on stock continuation. |
| NVDA |
162,771 |
86,601 |
76,170 |
0.88
|
$208C 21,181 vol |
| NVDA: Call-heavy flow with $208C hot, suggests bullish expectations. |
| AMD |
42,907 |
32,606 |
10,301 |
0.32
|
$510C 5,967 vol |
| AMD: Extremely call-heavy flow, P/C=0.32, indicates strong bullish conviction. |
|
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AMD
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$843B
· Earnings May 05
|
| $550C |
35 DTE |
+58.1% ann. |
+9.4% OTM |
Δ 0.10 |
POP 90% |
|
| AMD's stock has a high insider score of 93 and saw a significant 308.8x minute spike in insider activity, indicating strong insider confidence. |
|
AAOI
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$14B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $178C |
28 DTE |
+173.8% ann. |
+6.4% OTM |
Δ 0.15 |
POP 85% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics' stock is declining after a report on a delay in the rollout of its Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology. |
|
DDOG
CC
Safest
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$78B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $265C |
42 DTE |
+32.8% ann. |
+13.8% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Datadog's (DDOG) share value has more than doubled as investors recognize a growing market opportunity, with a key event scheduled for June 9. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $740 · QQQ $720 · VIX 18.8 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.8 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$730P |
69d |
1 |
$15.92 |
$1,592 |
8.4% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$750P |
69d |
1 |
$23.96 |
$2,396 |
12.7% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$726P |
69d |
2 |
$14.69 |
$2,938 |
15.5% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $750P 69d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$703 |
110% |
$98,029 |
| Correction -10% |
$666 |
99% |
$97,481 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$629 |
95% |
$96,932 |
| Crash -20% |
$592 |
93% |
$96,383 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$710P |
69d |
1 |
$26.61 |
$2,661 |
14.1% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$735P |
69d |
1 |
$38.04 |
$3,804 |
20.1% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$700P |
69d |
2 |
$22.88 |
$4,576 |
24.2% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $735P 69d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$684 |
121% |
$97,073 |
| Correction -10% |
$648 |
103% |
$96,421 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$612 |
97% |
$95,770 |
| Crash -20% |
$576 |
94% |
$95,118 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:10 ET
|
|
June 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Jun 01 – Jun 12 (MTD) · Hit rate: 37/62 · Avg return: +0.5% · YTD: +34.2%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 11 months |
| Return |
+76.7% |
Ann. |
86.1% |
Sharpe |
3.40 |
Max DD |
-4.5% |
| Win% |
82% |
Alpha |
+61.3% |
SPY |
+22.4% |
$100K → |
$176,675 |
| Full backtest · 2006-02–2026-05 · 244 months |
| Total |
4,795% |
Ann. |
21.1% |
Sharpe |
1.21 |
Max DD |
-33.8% |
| Win% |
67% |
Alpha |
+11.9% |
SPY |
493% |
$100K → |
$4,894,877 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| CBOE |
12.8% |
-2.4% |
| CSCO |
5.5% |
+0.5% |
| AVGO |
5.2% |
-17.0% |
| SNDK |
4.2% |
+12.8% |
| LEA |
3.2% |
+1.3% |
| GLW |
3.2% |
+1.0% |
| MNST |
2.8% |
+3.1% |
| GOOGL |
2.6% |
-4.5% |
| UNP |
2.6% |
+2.5% |
| UMC |
2.3% |
-6.8% |
| TRP |
2.3% |
+6.3% |
| AMD |
2.1% |
+1.0% |
| COHR |
2.0% |
+3.9% |
| INTC |
2.0% |
+10.4% |
| CAT |
1.8% |
+6.0% |
| ARM |
1.8% |
-9.7% |
| NJR |
1.6% |
+3.0% |
| SENEA |
1.6% |
+7.6% |
| AAPL |
1.6% |
-4.9% |
| MGA |
1.6% |
+1.8% |
| AIZ |
1.6% |
+3.9% |
| KYIV |
1.6% |
-3.9% |
| GIII |
1.6% |
+11.3% |
| CNC |
1.6% |
+3.4% |
| ALAB |
1.5% |
+16.1% |
| CORZ |
1.5% |
-1.1% |
| BBVA |
1.4% |
-0.4% |
| STRZ |
1.3% |
+9.8% |
| HWM |
1.3% |
+3.3% |
| BTSG |
1.3% |
+4.3% |
| MU |
1.3% |
-3.4% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| CELC |
1.2% |
-26.4% |
| PL |
1.2% |
-32.2% |
| MXL |
1.2% |
-5.7% |
| RKLB |
1.1% |
-12.8% |
| WDC |
1.1% |
+4.3% |
| TSM |
1.0% |
-2.9% |
| SOBO |
1.0% |
+5.1% |
| MYRG |
1.0% |
-1.1% |
| NVT |
1.0% |
-1.2% |
| ENB |
1.0% |
+3.6% |
| NWPX |
1.0% |
+8.8% |
| MSGS |
0.9% |
+4.6% |
| SXI |
0.9% |
+8.5% |
| SNEX |
0.8% |
+13.6% |
| CWBC |
0.8% |
+7.3% |
| APH |
0.7% |
+5.2% |
| INDB |
0.6% |
+6.8% |
| WTS |
0.6% |
+5.8% |
| EQBK |
0.6% |
+5.9% |
| GM |
0.6% |
-1.6% |
| SAIC |
0.5% |
-0.6% |
| RY |
0.5% |
+6.0% |
| CORO |
0.5% |
-1.3% |
| TJX |
0.3% |
+9.7% |
| RBA |
0.2% |
+1.5% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
-8.5% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
-16.7% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+7.0% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
-4.8% |
| AMZN |
0.2% |
-9.6% |
| META |
0.2% |
-6.0% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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