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Markets · Options · Signal
June 09, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 13:03 ET
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S&P 500
727.73
-1.55%
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Nasdaq
694.60
-3.00%
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Dow
505.02
-0.76%
|
Russell 2k
280.14
-1.40%
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VIX
22.14
+17.02%
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20Y Bond
84.96
+0.40%
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Gold
390.95
-1.59%
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Silver
58.89
-4.36%
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Oil
130.79
-3.22%
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USD
28.02
-0.05%
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CNN Fear & Greed
29
Fear
wk -27 · mo -38
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 722.59 |
Res: 745.74 |
RSI: 41.9 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 686.37 |
Res: 721.25 |
RSI: 43.6 |
|
Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Tue Jun 09 – Thu Jun 11 · as of 13:03 ET |
| Tue Jun 09 |
| 10:00 |
US |
Existing Home Sales (May) — est. 4.07M, prev. 4.04M |
| Wed Jun 10 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core CPI (MoM) (May) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.4% |
| 08:30 |
US |
CPI (MoM) (May) — est. 0.5%, prev. 0.6% |
| 08:30 |
US |
CPI (YoY) (May) — est. 4.2%, prev. 3.8% |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — est. -5.100M, prev. -7.974M |
| 13:00 |
US |
10-Year Note Auction — prev. 4.468% |
| Thu Jun 11 |
| 08:15 |
EU |
Deposit Facility Rate (Jun) — est. 2.25%, prev. 2.00% |
| 08:15 |
EU |
ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun) — est. 2.40%, prev. 2.15% |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.15% |
-2bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.56% |
+1bps |
| Spread |
+41bps |
Steepening |
| DXY |
100.02 |
-0.03% |
| VIX/3M |
1.01 |
Flat |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2493
$97.30 · $390.23
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z -2.61 · Long spread · ρ 86%
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| BTC |
$61,358 |
-2.7% |
| ETH |
$1,631 |
-3.5% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0266 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
13:05 ET |
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Real Estate
+2.02%
XLRE
|
Cons. Staples
+1.22%
XLP
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Utilities
+1.13%
XLU
|
|
Health Care
+0.87%
XLV
|
Financials
+0.35%
XLF
|
Materials
+0.12%
XLB
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|
Communication
-0.14%
XLC
|
Industrials
-0.50%
XLI
|
Cons. Discr.
-0.53%
XLY
|
|
Energy
-1.65%
XLE
|
Technology
-4.28%
XLK
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In today's BULL regime, defensive sectors like Real Estate, Cons. Staples, and Utilities outperform as money rotates out of Tech and cyclical Energy.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 12 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a bull regime for 12 days, even as the Nasdaq fell 3.00% and S&P 500 dropped 1.55% on the previous close, with tech-heavy indices leading the decline. Worth watching is the divergence between the bull regime and the surge in VIX implied volatility, as Treasuries advanced and oil prices retreated, suggesting some investors are positioning for potential inflation relief as CPI is expected to stay above 4%.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 13:05 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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MSFT
mixed
22
“OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork”
WSB 2037 pts · 5/5 subs
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IBKR
bearish
20
“At least the adds at IBKR are honest.”
WSB 1568 pts · 4/5 subs
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TSLA
mixed
17
“TSLA FSD Europe Dominoes Start Falling: Denmark Becomes 4th Country to Approve F…”
WSB 192 pts · 5/5 subs
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RKLB
bullish
14
“ahead of spcx launch, 4 space related tickers, 400 call contracts, 1 week expiry…”
WSB 1111 pts · 4/5 subs
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|
V
bullish
13
“Fuck the AI buildout, I'm buying calls on cattle because of this little shit”
WSB 4898 pts · 4/5 subs
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SNDK
mixed
13
“Apple and the new AI-Siri: My thesis on AAPL”
WSB 15 pts · 5/5 subs
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ID
mixed
12
“Social Security retirement trust fund may be depleted in 2032, new trustees repo…”
WSB 867 pts · 5/5 subs
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MU
mixed
12
“$500 to $12k”
WSB 93 pts · 5/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
2934 Form 4s filed · 13:03 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-06-04 to 2026-06-09
Tech insiders are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with notable sales by DELL's Silver Lake Partners and CRWV's executives, totaling over $150 million.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Intrator Michael N CEO and President |
$37.7M |
| SELL |
DELL |
Silver Lake Partners V DE… Insider |
$32.6M |
| SELL |
DELL |
Silver Lake Partners IV, … Insider |
$32.5M |
| SELL |
DELL |
Silver Lake Partners V DE… Insider |
$13.7M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$13.1M |
| SELL |
ACMR |
Wang David H See Remarks |
$8.8M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 13:06 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.0% |
5.3d |
-4.3% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
27.0% |
1.4d |
-3.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
18.0% |
2.2d |
-6.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
14.1% |
5.5d |
-6.4% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
14.1% |
5.2d |
+1.3% |
MODERATE
|
| CVNA |
13.7% |
5.8d |
+2.0% |
MODERATE
|
| SOFI |
13.7% |
2.5d |
+9.3% |
LOW
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| MSTR |
12.0% |
2.1d |
+6.3% |
LOW
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8126 scanned · 74 SEC-confirmed· 6 red · 45 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| QDEL |
0.62 |
0.65 |
0.64 |
95% |
PREGRINDADDELEV |
RED
|
| FLGT |
0.41 |
0.85 |
0.63 |
47% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| BJRI |
0.30 |
0.85 |
0.58 |
62% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| MYO |
0.48 |
0.85 |
0.50 |
10% |
GRINDCOVERELEVLADDERILLIQ |
RED
|
| MNPR |
0.39 |
0.85 |
0.46 |
68% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
RED
|
| BTSG |
0.37 |
0.85 |
0.21 |
87% |
BLOWGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.59 |
0.10 |
0.59 |
76% |
PREELEV |
YELLOW
|
| RHI |
0.35 |
0.65 |
0.50 |
56% |
PREGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
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| RBCAA |
0.31 |
0.65 |
0.48 |
98% |
PREGRINDADDELEVATMDDUP? |
YELLOW
|
| CBRL |
0.30 |
0.65 |
0.48 |
36% |
PREGRINDADDELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
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+ 41 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 13:03 ET |
Nasdaq sinks more than 3% as tech sell-off reignites
FT 1m ago
The tech sell-off, with the Nasdaq sinking more than 3%, may indicate a shift in investor sentiment or a reaction to new information. This could lead to a flight to safer assets, such as bonds or gold, and potential weakness in related sectors like semiconductors. For now, it's essential to monitor tech sector earnings reports and economic indicators for clearer direction.
| BBG |
JPMorgan Strategist Expects CPI Above 4% with Signs of Easing Energy Inflation
With the expectation of CPI being above 4% and signs of easing energy inflation, it's likely that inflation concerns will influence interest rate expectations. This could lead to a stronger USD and potentially impact consumer spending and corporate profit margins. Keep an eye on the actual CPI data release and energy price movements for further clues.
|
1h ago |
| FT |
Asian tech stocks rebound after Wall Street embraces AI once more
The rebound in Asian tech stocks, driven by positive sentiment towards AI, could signal a revival in the tech sector. However, if investors remain cautious, another sell-off is possible. It's crucial to monitor tech sector developments, including earnings reports and advancements in AI.
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9h ago |
| BBG |
Canada Dollar Hits 2026 Low as Traders See Central Bank on Hold
The Canadian dollar hitting a 2026 low suggests that traders expect the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates. This could lead to further CAD weakness, impacting trade and investment flows. Watch for the BoC meeting and Canadian economic indicators to gauge the central bank's stance.
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14m ago |
| BBG |
Treasuries Advance Before Auction as Oil Prices Retreat Further
Treasuries advancing before an auction, as oil prices retreat further, may indicate that market participants are positioning for lower yields. The auction results and upcoming economic indicators will be crucial in determining the direction of yields and, in turn, mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs.
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31m ago |
| BBG |
Nasdaq 100 Sinks 4% as Chipmakers Sell Off Again: Markets Wrap
The intensified tech sell-off, with the Nasdaq 100 sinking 4%, may lead to a risk-off sentiment and cross-asset effects. If deemed a buying opportunity, a technical rebound is possible. For now, monitor tech sector earnings reports and economic indicators to assess the sector's near-term prospects.
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18h ago |
| FT |
Indonesia unexpectedly raises interest rate to support rupiah
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8h ago |
| FJ |
Treasury WI 3 Yr yield 4.189% before $58 billion auction
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2m ago |
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 13:03 ET |
| FJ |
EIA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast
EIA expects global oil demand to decline in 2026, reversing earlier forecast
|
45m ago |
| FJ |
US 3-Year Note Yield Surges
US 3-Year Note High Yield Actual 4.192%, beating previous 3.965%
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1m ago |
| FJ |
Iran Threatens Diplomacy Breakdown
Iran's Parliament Speaker warns of escalating actions if commitments aren't met
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27m ago |
| FJ |
ECB Bond Holdings Hit €1.33 Trillion
ECB settled €224 bln corporate bond purchases, public-sector bond holdings near €1.715 tln
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2h ago |
| FJ |
Crude Output Disrupted in Middle East
EIA: Strait of Hormuz disruptions cut Middle East output by over 11 mln BPD in May
|
46m ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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ROBO
$81.67
-3.1%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 49 |
1M -0.5% |
3M +15.1% |
1Y +47.2% |
DOWN |
ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) offers exposure to the emerging theme of embodied AI, with humanoid robotics moving from concept to factory floors over the past 18 months. Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci 5 surgical platform, co-engineered with NVIDIA's Isaac platform, is a working hospital robot that requires an AI compute stack. However, Intel's comeback highlights valuation risks, with AI ETFs looking pricey.
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NBIS
$208.00
-4.6%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 84 |
1M +23.3% |
3M +140.0% |
1Y +392.0% |
FLAT |
Nebius (NBIS) surged after announcing a 1.7B euro commitment to expand UK AI infrastructure with NVIDIA-powered deployments, targeting 65 MW capacity by 2027. The company is poised to benefit from booming AI demand, with a potential bottleneck in infrastructure. However, execution risks remain, and the market may be overestimating growth prospects.
|
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IYM
$179.91
-0.2%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 39 |
1M -0.6% |
3M +2.4% |
1Y +32.0% |
DOWN |
The iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF (IYM) may benefit from Trump's move easing EPA rules, boosting the steel supply chain and potentially leading to firmer pricing power and steadier volumes for steelmakers. IYM has a 1-year return of 32.0% and a current HMM regime classification of BULL. However, the ETF's composite score is 39/100 with a trend of DOWN, indicating potential risks.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
52 / 4 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
63 / 4 / 1
|
2026-06-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
61 / 5 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| META |
Buy |
63 / 9 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
61 / 9 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| SNDK |
Buy |
25 / 4 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| AMD |
Buy |
46 / 11 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Jun 09 |
WHK
WhiteHawk Income Corp
|
— |
$215M |
| Jun 10 |
PBLS
Parabilis Medicines, Inc.
|
— |
$546M |
| Jun 10 |
EROC
ERock, Inc.
|
— |
$738M |
| Jun 11 |
FRBT
Forbright, Inc.
|
— |
$182M |
| Jun 12 |
SPCX
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP
|
— |
$86.2B |
|
Congressional Trades |
2 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Tim Walberg |
FSSL |
Sale |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
| Josh Gottheimer |
ABT |
Sale |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
PAVS
+399.7%
$4.70
AZI
+329.2%
$4.85
CCTG
+306.9%
$1.95
CHAI
+216.9%
$2.60
RGNT
+183.6%
$3.63
Top Losers
SMTK
-55.0%
$0.38
NPT
-48.1%
$2.57
BYAH
-42.3%
$1.53
SDOT
-39.1%
$12.51
JLHL
-38.9%
$26.36
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 13:06 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
7,716,859 |
3,475,349 |
4,241,510 |
1.22
|
$745C 294,148 vol |
| SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C 1.22, suggests protective hedge or bearish bets amid bull regime. |
| QQQ |
5,346,654 |
2,494,236 |
2,852,418 |
1.14
|
$725C 166,787 vol |
| QQQ: Moderate call buying, hot $725C strike, but P/C 1.14 indicates mixed flow, no clear directional signal. |
| TSLA |
1,058,422 |
506,824 |
551,598 |
1.09
|
$420C 76,626 vol |
| TSLA: Call buying at $420C strike, P/C 1.09, implies bullish bets or positioning ahead of event. |
| NVDA |
1,009,679 |
515,689 |
493,990 |
0.96
|
$210C 105,857 vol |
| NVDA: Near-neutral P/C 0.96, hot $210C strike, suggests bullish positioning or gamma squeeze setup. |
| AAPL |
471,167 |
212,399 |
258,768 |
1.22
|
$300C 45,485 vol |
| AAPL: High P/C 1.22 ratio with hot $300C call buying, indicates mixed flow with bearish undertones. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $728 · QQQ $695 · VIX 21.6 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 21.6 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$720P |
51d |
1 |
$15.32 |
$1,532 |
11.0% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$740P |
51d |
1 |
$23.51 |
$2,351 |
16.8% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$712P |
51d |
2 |
$12.95 |
$2,590 |
18.5% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $740P 51d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$692 |
114% |
$98,230 |
| Correction -10% |
$655 |
100% |
$97,620 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$619 |
95% |
$97,010 |
| Crash -20% |
$582 |
93% |
$96,401 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$690P |
51d |
1 |
$24.79 |
$2,479 |
17.7% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$710P |
51d |
1 |
$33.79 |
$3,379 |
24.2% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$681P |
51d |
2 |
$21.45 |
$4,290 |
30.7% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $710P 51d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$661 |
116% |
$97,317 |
| Correction -10% |
$626 |
99% |
$96,543 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$591 |
93% |
$95,770 |
| Crash -20% |
$556 |
90% |
$94,996 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 13:05 ET
|
|
June 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Jun 01 – Jun 09 (MTD) · Hit rate: 24/62 · Avg return: -4.2% · YTD: +21.6%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 11 months |
| Return |
+73.6% |
Ann. |
82.6% |
Sharpe |
3.49 |
Max DD |
-4.4% |
| Win% |
91% |
Alpha |
+57.8% |
SPY |
+22.4% |
$100K → |
$173,622 |
| Full backtest · 2006-02–2026-05 · 244 months |
| Total |
3,325% |
Ann. |
19.0% |
Sharpe |
1.15 |
Max DD |
-42.6% |
| Win% |
66% |
Alpha |
+9.8% |
SPY |
493% |
$100K → |
$3,425,339 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| CBOE |
10.4% |
-4.4% |
| AVGO |
6.1% |
-18.3% |
| CSCO |
4.5% |
-2.1% |
| GOOGL |
4.0% |
-4.1% |
| SNDK |
3.4% |
-9.0% |
| AAPL |
3.1% |
-5.4% |
| MU |
2.9% |
-14.9% |
| LEA |
2.6% |
-2.7% |
| GLW |
2.6% |
-4.4% |
| MNST |
2.3% |
+0.2% |
| UNP |
2.1% |
+2.0% |
| TSLA |
2.0% |
-6.4% |
| NVDA |
2.0% |
-9.7% |
| MSFT |
2.0% |
-13.0% |
| LLY |
2.0% |
+5.6% |
| META |
2.0% |
-2.6% |
| AMZN |
2.0% |
-7.4% |
| UMC |
1.9% |
-16.2% |
| TRP |
1.9% |
+3.5% |
| AMD |
1.7% |
-11.8% |
| COHR |
1.6% |
-4.4% |
| INTC |
1.6% |
-6.8% |
| CAT |
1.4% |
+2.6% |
| ARM |
1.4% |
-23.9% |
| NJR |
1.3% |
+4.1% |
| SENEA |
1.3% |
+1.6% |
| MGA |
1.3% |
-0.2% |
| GIII |
1.3% |
+5.6% |
| CNC |
1.3% |
+5.1% |
| KYIV |
1.3% |
-6.5% |
| AIZ |
1.3% |
+0.6% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| ALAB |
1.2% |
-1.7% |
| CORZ |
1.2% |
-8.7% |
| BBVA |
1.2% |
-4.1% |
| STRZ |
1.1% |
+1.7% |
| HWM |
1.1% |
-3.5% |
| BTSG |
1.0% |
-0.3% |
| CELC |
1.0% |
-25.5% |
| PL |
1.0% |
-35.3% |
| MXL |
1.0% |
-19.3% |
| RKLB |
0.9% |
-15.2% |
| WDC |
0.9% |
-9.4% |
| TSM |
0.8% |
-5.4% |
| SOBO |
0.8% |
-1.0% |
| MYRG |
0.8% |
-8.4% |
| NVT |
0.8% |
-7.6% |
| ENB |
0.8% |
+1.0% |
| NWPX |
0.8% |
+0.3% |
| MSGS |
0.8% |
+0.9% |
| SXI |
0.7% |
+2.8% |
| SNEX |
0.6% |
+2.3% |
| CWBC |
0.6% |
+5.5% |
| APH |
0.6% |
+0.7% |
| INDB |
0.5% |
+3.7% |
| WTS |
0.5% |
+2.8% |
| EQBK |
0.5% |
+4.1% |
| GM |
0.5% |
-0.7% |
| SAIC |
0.4% |
-2.4% |
| RY |
0.4% |
+3.9% |
| CORO |
0.4% |
-4.4% |
| TJX |
0.3% |
+7.2% |
| RBA |
0.2% |
+0.3% |
|
|
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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