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Markets · Options · Signal
June 05, 2026 · All times ET
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ALERT: REFRESH TOKEN EXPIRED — manual re-auth required
Run: cd automation/schwab_bot && python tools/quick_auth.py
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Market Snapshot · 10:01 ET
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S&P 500
748.37
-1.15%
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Nasdaq
723.75
-2.28%
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Dow
514.73
-0.38%
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Russell 2k
285.80
-2.13%
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VIX
16.82
+9.22%
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20Y Bond
84.93
-0.67%
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Gold
400.80
-2.55%
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Silver
62.87
-6.14%
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Oil
134.22
-1.84%
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USD
27.93
+0.34%
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CNN Fear & Greed
50
Neutral
wk -10 · mo -17
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 746.85 |
Res: 760.40 |
RSI: 59.3 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 722.94 |
Res: 748.65 |
RSI: 59.0 |
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Econ Calendar |
3 high-impact · Fri Jun 05 – Fri Jun 05 · as of 10:01 ET |
| Fri Jun 05 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Nonfarm Payrolls (May) — est. 85K, prev. 179K |
| 08:30 |
US |
Unemployment Rate (May) — est. 4.3%, prev. 4.3% |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.05% |
-3bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.47% |
-2bps |
| Spread |
+42bps |
Steepening |
| DXY |
99.69 |
+0.29% |
| VIX/3M |
0.84 |
Contango |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
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z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2608
$104.50 · $400.74
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z -1.98 · Long spread · ρ 85%
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| BTC |
$60,679 |
-4.9% |
| ETH |
$1,616 |
-8.6% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0266 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
10:04 ET |
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Cons. Staples
+1.51%
XLP
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Health Care
+1.10%
XLV
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Utilities
+0.86%
XLU
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Real Estate
+0.71%
XLRE
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Financials
+0.40%
XLF
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Cons. Discr.
-0.07%
XLY
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Communication
-0.44%
XLC
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Materials
-0.47%
XLB
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Industrials
-0.56%
XLI
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Energy
-1.16%
XLE
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Technology
-3.63%
XLK
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In a Bull regime, we're seeing a defensive rotation with Cons. Staples, Health Care, and Utilities outperforming as Technology and cyclicals like Industrials lag.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 12 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a BULL regime for 12 days, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.15% and 2.28% respectively from the previous close. Worth watching is the divergence between the Fed's inflation concerns and market expectations, with WH Sr. Adviser Hassett suggesting the Fed can wait on inflation while the market sees potential for a 'June swoon'.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:03 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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AVGO
mixed
37
“wealthsimple exercised AVGO puts after hours. i'm down 1.2 million. is it over”
WSB 3872 pts · 5/5 subs
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NVDA
mixed
22
“I messed up again— “best of luck to you” - Schwab Risk Management Team”
WSB 830 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
mixed
15
“STMicroelectronics (STM) is one of the best and most undervalued European stocks…”
STK 44 pts · 5/5 subs
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R
mixed
14
“Daily Discussion Thread for June 05, 2026”
WSB 124 pts · 5/5 subs
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DUDE
mixed
14
“I messed up again— “best of luck to you” - Schwab Risk Management Team”
WSB 830 pts · 4/5 subs
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MU
bullish
13
“MU calls expiring tmr!”
WSB 118 pts · 5/5 subs
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MOM
mixed
13
“Needed this 21M”
WSB 1306 pts · 4/5 subs
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LULU
mixed
12
“Lululemon downgrades annual outlook. $LULU down 10% post Q1 earnings”
WSB 2671 pts · 4/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
5040 Form 4s filed · 10:01 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-31 to 2026-06-05
CEOs across various sectors, including tech and semi, are aggressively dumping shares ahead of earnings, sparking caution in the bull regime, with ILMN's Meister leading the selloff.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
ILMN |
Meister Keith A. Insider |
$107.0M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Intrator Michael N CEO and President |
$37.7M |
| SELL |
MU |
MEHROTRA SANJAY President and CEO |
$36.0M |
| SELL |
vicr |
VINCIARELLI PATRIZIO Chairman and CEO |
$6.6M |
| SELL |
vicr |
VINCIARELLI PATRIZIO Chairman and CEO |
$6.4M |
| SELL |
MTSI |
Daly Stephen G President and CEO |
$5.8M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:04 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.0% |
5.3d |
-4.3% |
HIGH
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| BYND |
27.0% |
1.4d |
-3.4% |
ELEVATED
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| SMCI |
18.0% |
2.2d |
-6.4% |
ELEVATED
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| GME |
14.1% |
5.5d |
-6.4% |
MODERATE
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| RIVN |
14.1% |
5.2d |
+1.3% |
MODERATE
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| CVNA |
13.7% |
5.8d |
+2.0% |
MODERATE
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| SOFI |
13.7% |
2.5d |
+9.3% |
LOW
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| MSTR |
12.0% |
2.1d |
+6.3% |
LOW
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8175 scanned · 76 SEC-confirmed· 3 red · 50 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| BJRI |
0.30 |
0.85 |
0.58 |
62% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| MYO |
0.48 |
0.85 |
0.50 |
20% |
GRINDCOVERELEVLADDERILLIQ |
RED
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| MNPR |
0.39 |
0.85 |
0.46 |
68% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
RED
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| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
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| CBRL |
0.30 |
0.65 |
0.48 |
36% |
PREGRINDADDELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
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| TRNS |
0.18 |
0.85 |
0.45 |
50% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
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| ZGN |
0.30 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
81% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
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| QSI |
0.27 |
0.85 |
0.42 |
90% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
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| CBIO |
0.53 |
0.10 |
0.40 |
79% |
ELEVATM* |
YELLOW
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| RH |
0.22 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
39% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
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+ 43 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:01 ET |
India exempts foreign investors from tax on bonds to shore up rupee
FT 16m ago
The Indian government's decision to exempt foreign investors from tax on bonds is likely aimed at strengthening the rupee by making Indian bonds more attractive. This move could lead to increased foreign investment in Indian bonds, causing the rupee to strengthen and Indian bond yields to compress. As a result, emerging market spreads may narrow, reflecting improved sentiment towards Indian assets.
| FJ |
Fed Rate Expectations Post Stronger Than Expected NFP - FJElite
The stronger-than-expected NFP data is likely to shift Fed rate expectations towards a more hawkish stance, potentially leading to a stronger dollar and higher yields. This could put pressure on stocks, especially if the market perceives that rate hikes are imminent. However, the actual impact will depend on upcoming Fed communications and how they interpret the data.
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52m ago |
| MW |
Don’t rule out a ‘June swoon’ — the S&P 500 is pushing its limits
The narrative of a potential 'June swoon' in the S&P 500 suggests that the market may be due for a correction, driven by historical patterns and current valuations. If investors start to price in this risk, we could see a market pullback, with defensive sectors potentially outperforming. Monitoring market technicals and investor positioning will be crucial in the coming days.
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45m ago |
| FJ |
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: The US jobs data is absolutely not foreshadowing inflation.
The statement by WH Sr. Adviser Hassett that the US jobs data does not foreshadow inflation could lead to market expectations of lower inflation, potentially keeping yields stable or lower. This could support equities, but the impact will depend on upcoming inflation data and how it aligns with or contradicts Hassett's view.
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12m ago |
| FJ |
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: The Fed can watch inflation and wait before doing anything.
Hassett's suggestion that the Fed can afford to wait and watch inflation before taking action could be interpreted as a dovish signal, potentially leading to stable or lower yields and supporting risk assets. However, if inflation data starts to rise rapidly, the Fed's stance may change, and market expectations will need to adjust accordingly.
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49m ago |
| FT |
Tech groups find a new way to monetise AI hype: selling volatility
The news that tech groups are selling volatility related to AI hype seems to have limited direct market impact without more specifics on the strategy and its influence on broader market dynamics. This could be an interesting development to monitor, especially if it gains traction and affects market volatility or the development of new financial products.
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20h ago |
| BBG |
Stocks and Bonds Fall as Jobs Fuel Fed-Hike Bets: Markets Wrap
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15h ago |
| BBG |
JPMorgan Turns Upbeat on Tesla After Replacing Bearish Analyst
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36m ago |
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:01 ET |
| FJ |
Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise
Traders price in Fed rate hike by January
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1h ago |
| FJ |
Strong US Jobs Data
US Nonfarm Payrolls beat forecast
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1h ago |
| FJ |
Iran-US Tensions
US CENTCOM denies Iran's claim
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44m ago |
| FJ |
Canadian Jobs Surprise
Canadian Employment Change beats forecast
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1h ago |
| FJ |
Global Growth Concerns
WH Adviser Hassett on inflation
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11m ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
52 / 4 / 0
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2026-06-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
63 / 4 / 1
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2026-06-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
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2026-06-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
61 / 5 / 0
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2026-06-01 |
| META |
Buy |
63 / 9 / 0
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2026-06-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
61 / 9 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| SNDK |
Buy |
25 / 4 / 0
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2026-06-01 |
| AMD |
Buy |
46 / 11 / 0
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2026-06-01 |
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| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Jun 05 |
WHK
WhiteHawk Income Corp
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— |
$215M |
| Jun 05 |
IDIAU
Innovative Digital Investors Acquisition…
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— |
$144M |
| Jun 10 |
EROC
ERock, Inc.
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— |
$738M |
| Jun 11 |
FRBT
Forbright, Inc.
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— |
$182M |
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Congressional Trades |
3 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Josh Gottheimer |
INTU |
Sale |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Josh Gottheimer |
LITE |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Tim Walberg |
FSSL |
Sale |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
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Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
SNBR
+125.8%
$0.79
NOTV
+76.0%
$0.15
SMTK
+50.4%
$0.48
BCDA
+45.9%
$1.34
BBCP
+43.9%
$11.48
Top Losers
NYXH
-45.8%
$1.56
CYPH
-41.0%
$0.58
INDP
-40.0%
$2.85
DXF
-37.6%
$0.52
TDIC
-34.6%
$0.24
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Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:04 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
359,100 |
146,088 |
213,012 |
1.46
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$752C 19,120 vol |
| SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C of 1.46 suggests protective hedging ahead of potential market volatility. |
| QQQ |
306,551 |
111,382 |
195,169 |
1.75
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$730C 10,460 vol |
| QQQ: Aggressive call buying at $730C, but high P/C ratio indicates mixed flow, no clear directional signal. |
| NVDA |
138,612 |
61,335 |
77,277 |
1.26
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$215C 9,756 vol |
| NVDA: Moderate call buying, particularly at $215C, suggests bullish positioning in a bullish regime. |
| TSLA |
138,024 |
105,977 |
32,047 |
0.30
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$425C 17,434 vol |
| TSLA: Extremely low P/C ratio of 0.30 and heavy call buying at $425C indicate bullish bets. |
| AAPL |
98,093 |
79,722 |
18,371 |
0.23
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$315C 31,658 vol |
| AAPL: Low P/C ratio of 0.23 and large call buying at $315C suggest aggressive bullish positioning. |
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Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $749 · QQQ $724 · VIX 16.6 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 16.6 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$740P |
55d |
1 |
$11.70 |
$1,170 |
7.8% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$760P |
55d |
1 |
$19.05 |
$1,905 |
12.6% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$725P |
55d |
2 |
$8.30 |
$1,660 |
11.0% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $760P 55d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$712 |
113% |
$98,665 |
| Correction -10% |
$674 |
101% |
$98,162 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$637 |
97% |
$97,658 |
| Crash -20% |
$599 |
94% |
$97,154 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$715P |
55d |
1 |
$17.81 |
$1,781 |
11.8% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$740P |
55d |
1 |
$27.90 |
$2,790 |
18.5% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$705P |
55d |
2 |
$14.96 |
$2,992 |
19.9% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $740P 55d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$688 |
122% |
$98,142 |
| Correction -10% |
$652 |
104% |
$97,514 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$616 |
97% |
$96,886 |
| Crash -20% |
$580 |
94% |
$96,258 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:04 ET
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June 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Jun 01 – Jun 05 (MTD) · Hit rate: 30/63 · Avg return: -1.2% · YTD: +33.5%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 11 months |
| Return |
+81.6% |
Ann. |
91.7% |
Sharpe |
3.27 |
Max DD |
-4.6% |
| Win% |
91% |
Alpha |
+67.0% |
SPY |
+22.4% |
$100K → |
$181,585 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-05 · 243 months |
| Total |
5,206% |
Ann. |
21.7% |
Sharpe |
1.24 |
Max DD |
-32.9% |
| Win% |
68% |
Alpha |
+12.5% |
SPY |
490% |
$100K → |
$5,306,475 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| CBOE |
12.1% |
-4.8% |
| AVGO |
6.2% |
-12.5% |
| AMD |
4.6% |
-4.6% |
| GOOGL |
4.1% |
-1.7% |
| AGOX |
3.9% |
-1.9% |
| SNDK |
3.9% |
-7.8% |
| AAPL |
3.0% |
+2.3% |
| GLW |
2.8% |
+4.2% |
| MNST |
2.8% |
+0.5% |
| LEA |
2.7% |
-1.3% |
| UNP |
2.6% |
+1.9% |
| TRP |
2.3% |
+4.2% |
| UMC |
2.0% |
-11.7% |
| BWET |
2.0% |
+22.4% |
| COHR |
1.8% |
+7.6% |
| ARM |
1.8% |
-12.9% |
| NJR |
1.6% |
+2.9% |
| SENEA |
1.6% |
+0.6% |
| AMZN |
1.6% |
-3.2% |
| ALAB |
1.5% |
+3.9% |
| CORZ |
1.5% |
-8.2% |
| BBVA |
1.4% |
-2.7% |
| HWM |
1.3% |
-1.6% |
| CNC |
1.2% |
-0.0% |
| AIZ |
1.2% |
+2.8% |
| KYIV |
1.2% |
-3.1% |
| MGA |
1.2% |
+2.9% |
| GIII |
1.2% |
+7.7% |
| STRZ |
1.1% |
+7.6% |
| RKLB |
1.1% |
-8.8% |
| BTSG |
1.1% |
-6.1% |
| WDC |
1.1% |
-3.8% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| CELC |
1.0% |
-26.3% |
| PL |
1.0% |
-25.6% |
| TSM |
1.0% |
-2.2% |
| SOBO |
1.0% |
+2.1% |
| MYRG |
1.0% |
-1.5% |
| MXL |
1.0% |
-0.7% |
| QVAL |
1.0% |
-0.2% |
| NVT |
1.0% |
-3.1% |
| ENB |
1.0% |
+3.4% |
| NWPX |
1.0% |
+2.4% |
| MSGS |
0.9% |
+2.1% |
| MU |
0.9% |
-11.4% |
| SXI |
0.9% |
+3.7% |
| SNEX |
0.8% |
-2.4% |
| CWBC |
0.8% |
+2.8% |
| APH |
0.7% |
-3.1% |
| INDB |
0.6% |
+2.0% |
| WTS |
0.6% |
+2.5% |
| EQBK |
0.6% |
+0.4% |
| GM |
0.6% |
+0.1% |
| SAIC |
0.5% |
+0.7% |
| RY |
0.5% |
+3.4% |
| CORO |
0.5% |
-2.2% |
| TJX |
0.3% |
+5.4% |
| RBA |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
-5.5% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
-7.8% |
| JPM |
0.2% |
+5.1% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
-1.4% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+3.3% |
| META |
0.2% |
+3.2% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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