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Markets · Options · Signal
June 03, 2026 · All times ET
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ALERT: REFRESH TOKEN EXPIRED — manual re-auth required
Run: cd automation/schwab_bot && python tools/quick_auth.py
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Market Snapshot · 10:01 ET
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S&P 500
756.56
-0.40%
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Nasdaq
743.78
-0.32%
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Dow
511.25
-0.54%
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Russell 2k
287.99
-1.26%
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VIX
16.24
+2.98%
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20Y Bond
85.38
-0.32%
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Gold
408.20
-0.91%
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Silver
66.77
-1.80%
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Oil
138.44
+0.85%
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USD
27.85
+0.32%
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CNN Fear & Greed
55
Neutral
wk -6 · mo -16
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 744.92 |
Res: 760.40 |
RSI: 70.3 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 719.23 |
Res: 748.63 |
RSI: 76.9 |
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Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Wed Jun 03 – Fri Jun 05 · as of 10:01 ET |
| Wed Jun 03 |
| 08:15 |
US |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) — est. 118K, prev. 105K |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Services PMI (May) — est. 50.9, prev. 50.9 |
| 10:00 |
US |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) — est. 53.7, prev. 53.6 |
| 10:00 |
US |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (May) — prev. 70.7 |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — est. -2.900M, prev. -3.327M |
| Thu Jun 04 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 211K, prev. 215K |
| Fri Jun 05 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Nonfarm Payrolls (May) — est. 95K, prev. 115K |
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| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.05% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.46% |
-1bps |
| Spread |
+41bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
99.44 |
+0.22% |
| VIX/3M |
0.82 |
Contango |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
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z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2741
$111.85 · $407.99
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z -1.06 · Neutral · ρ 85%
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| BTC |
$66,815 |
+0.2% |
| ETH |
$1,864 |
+0.4% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0279 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
10:04 ET |
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Utilities
+1.24%
XLU
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Energy
+1.09%
XLE
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Cons. Staples
+0.79%
XLP
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Real Estate
+0.68%
XLRE
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Health Care
+0.61%
XLV
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Materials
+0.35%
XLB
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Industrials
+0.20%
XLI
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Communication
-0.18%
XLC
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Cons. Discr.
-0.20%
XLY
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Financials
-0.98%
XLF
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Technology
-1.25%
XLK
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In today's BULL regime, we're seeing a defensive rotation with Utilities, Energy, and Cons. Staples leading, while cyclicals like Tech and Financials lag.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 10 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a BULL regime for 10 days, even as the S&P 500 and Dow fell 0.40% and 0.54% respectively on rising oil prices and bond yields. Worth watching is the divergence between the market's inflation concerns, as evidenced by the VIX's steady 15.12 level, and the US Energy Secretary's assertion that oil prices will decline once the Iran crisis is resolved.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:03 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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SPCE
mixed
46
“I'm an OG SPCE bag holder ~1100 cost basis”
WSB 625 pts · 5/5 subs
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DELL
mixed
27
“In the AI Gold Rush, What Are the Shovels?”
WSB 460 pts · 5/5 subs
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MU
mixed
23
“More MU Gainz”
WSB 118 pts · 5/5 subs
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TINY
bullish
19
“We are about to see THE MOST epic rugpull in human history.”
WSB 7734 pts · 3/5 subs
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MSTR
mixed
17
“Strategy (MSTR) Investors 'Deeply Concerned' After Market's Reaction to Michael …”
WSB 1366 pts · 2/5 subs
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AMD
mixed
17
“Thank you Lisa Su! Arvind and spez please take it from here.”
WSB 1030 pts · 5/5 subs
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GOOGL
mixed
16
“Goldman Sachs says Big Tech will spend $5.3T on AI from 2025 to 2030 as Meta, Mi…”
WSB 461 pts · 4/5 subs
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MRVL
mixed
15
“MRVL at Jensen's beneficence”
WSB 85 pts · 4/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
3381 Form 4s filed · 10:01 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-03
CEOs and executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with a flurry of large insider sales across tech and software, led by ILMN's $107M sale.
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Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
ILMN |
Meister Keith A. Insider |
$107.0M |
| SELL |
SNOW |
Slootman Frank Director |
$93.4M |
| SELL |
ABNB |
Chesky Brian CEO and Chairman |
$68.4M |
| SELL |
MU |
MEHROTRA SANJAY President and CEO |
$36.0M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$7.9M |
| SELL |
vicr |
VINCIARELLI PATRIZIO Chairman and CEO |
$6.4M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:04 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.0% |
5.3d |
-4.3% |
HIGH
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| BYND |
27.0% |
1.4d |
-3.4% |
ELEVATED
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| SMCI |
18.0% |
2.2d |
-6.4% |
ELEVATED
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| GME |
14.1% |
5.5d |
-6.4% |
MODERATE
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| RIVN |
14.1% |
5.2d |
+1.3% |
MODERATE
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| CVNA |
13.7% |
5.8d |
+2.0% |
MODERATE
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| SOFI |
13.7% |
2.5d |
+9.3% |
LOW
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| ARM |
13.3% |
1.7d |
+17.8% |
LOW
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8122 scanned · 73 SEC-confirmed· 7 red · 44 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| CBRL |
0.30 |
0.85 |
0.58 |
36% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
RED
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| APPN |
0.46 |
0.85 |
0.57 |
82% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| MYO |
0.48 |
0.85 |
0.50 |
20% |
GRINDCOVERELEVLADDERILLIQ |
RED
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| SONO |
0.41 |
0.85 |
0.47 |
42% |
GRINDCOVERELEVLADDERATM* |
RED
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| MNPR |
0.39 |
0.85 |
0.46 |
68% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
RED
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| FTK |
0.59 |
0.65 |
0.46 |
54% |
GRINDADDELEV |
RED
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| BJRI |
0.30 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
62% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
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| ZGN |
0.30 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
81% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
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| EVEX |
0.27 |
0.85 |
0.42 |
88% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
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+ 41 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:01 ET |
Dow falls 200 points as oil prices and bond yields creep higher: Live updates
CNBC 18m ago
The Dow's 200-point drop suggests that investors are becoming increasingly risk-averse, likely due to rising oil prices and bond yields. If this trend continues, we may see a decrease in consumer spending and higher inflation, which could negatively impact equities. Keep an eye on VIX and futures positioning for signs of a low-volatility regime reasserting itself.
| BBG |
Stocks Decline as US-Iran Clashes Drive Oil Higher: Markets Wrap
The escalation of US-Iran tensions is driving oil prices higher, which in turn is affecting investor confidence and leading to a decline in equities. A diplomatic resolution to the conflict could lead to a decrease in oil prices and a recovery in equities, while an escalation could have the opposite effect. Monitor US-Iran diplomatic developments and OPEC meetings for further guidance.
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15h ago |
| BBG |
Options Traders Look Past Jobs Data as Inflation Takes Spotlight
Options traders are looking past jobs data and focusing on inflation, which suggests that they expect the market to react more to changes in inflation expectations than to labor market indicators. This could lead to a rotation out of sectors sensitive to interest rates and into those that are insensitive. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases for signs of changing inflation expectations.
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1h ago |
| FT |
Chinese investors fear missing out on SpaceX IPO after crackdown
Chinese investors' interest in the SpaceX IPO could drive up the stock price, but regulatory hurdles or policy changes could deter them and lead to a decrease in the stock price. A positive development could be follow-through investment in US tech, while a negative one could be disappointment or withdrawal. Monitor IPO developments and Chinese investment trends for further guidance.
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17h ago |
| FJ |
US Energy Secretary Wright: Oil prices to decline once Iran crisis is resolved - Fox News
The US Energy Secretary's comments suggest that oil prices may decline once the Iran crisis is resolved, which could have a positive effect on risk assets. However, if the crisis escalates, oil prices could continue to rise, leading to a negative impact on equities. Keep an eye on Iran crisis developments and US Energy Secretary comments for further guidance.
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8m ago |
| BBG |
‘Incredible Rally’ in Most Speculative Portions of Market, Says Cameron Dawson
The market is experiencing an "incredible rally" in speculative assets, which could be a sign of excessive optimism. A correction or mean reversion could occur if investors become more risk-averse, while a sustained rally could lead to further gains in speculative assets. Monitor investor positioning and economic data releases for signs of a shift in market sentiment.
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1h ago |
| BBG |
Morgan Stanley's Weaver Sees Continued AI-Driven Equity Momentum
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21m ago |
| BBG |
Broadcom’s $280 Billion, Four-Day Bonanza to Get Earnings Check
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4h ago |
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:01 ET |
| FJ |
US Services PMI Beats Forecast
Strong services sector may influence Fed rate decisions
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1m ago |
| FJ |
Energy Secretary Sees Oil Price Drop
Oil prices may decline if Iran crisis resolves
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8m ago |
| FJ |
Fed Funds Rate Holds Steady
Stable interest rates may impact market risk appetite
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1h ago |
| FJ |
Middle East Tensions Rise
Escalating Iran tensions may increase geopolitical risk
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1h ago |
| FJ |
ADP Employment Beats Forecast
Strong labor market may influence Fed rate decisions
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1h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
63 / 4 / 1
|
2026-06-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
61 / 5 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| META |
Buy |
63 / 9 / 0
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2026-06-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
61 / 9 / 0
|
2026-06-01 |
| SNDK |
Buy |
25 / 4 / 0
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2026-06-01 |
| AMD |
Buy |
46 / 11 / 0
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2026-06-01 |
| RY |
Buy |
19 / 5 / 0
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2026-06-01 |
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| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Jun 03 |
AADX
Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc.
|
— |
$785M |
| Jun 03 |
AESPU
Aeon Acquisition I Corp.
|
— |
$144M |
| Jun 04 |
INIO
INNIO Holding GmbH
|
— |
$2.3B |
| Jun 04 |
SSMR
Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co
|
— |
$380M |
| Jun 04 |
QNT
Quantinuum Inc.
|
— |
$1.7B |
| Jun 04 |
SFPT
Safepoint Holdings, Inc.
|
— |
$326M |
| Jun 04 |
LFTO
Liftoff Mobile, Inc.
|
— |
$481M |
| Jun 05 |
WHK
WhiteHawk Income Corp
|
— |
$215M |
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Congressional Trades |
1 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Christian Menefee |
PINS |
Sale |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
WCT
+104.9%
$1.89
LASE
+64.3%
$3.98
ATPC
+58.9%
$4.72
DEVS
+46.1%
$0.88
SELX
+41.7%
$0.40
Top Losers
JZ
-43.8%
$0.39
NOTV
-42.3%
$0.15
CETX
-28.1%
$0.67
AMPGZ
-27.7%
$0.65
RNAZ
-23.6%
$4.04
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:04 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| QQQ |
203,851 |
58,954 |
144,897 |
2.46
|
$748C 11,271 vol |
| QQQ: Aggressive put buying, P/C of 2.46 suggests bearish bets or hedging ahead of potential earnings. |
| SPY |
186,772 |
93,428 |
93,344 |
1.00
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$759C 21,047 vol |
| SPY: Neutral flow, P/C ratio of 1.00 and hot $759C strike indicate balanced positioning. |
| NVDA |
111,763 |
76,609 |
35,154 |
0.46
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$225C 14,782 vol |
| NVDA: Call-heavy flow, P/C of 0.46 and $225C buying imply bullish positioning. |
| TSLA |
73,101 |
37,866 |
35,235 |
0.93
|
$420C 6,324 vol |
| TSLA: Mixed flow, near 1:1 P/C ratio and no standout strike suggest no clear directional signal. |
| GOOGL |
29,761 |
20,341 |
9,420 |
0.46
|
$365C 3,461 vol |
| GOOGL: Call-heavy flow, P/C of 0.46 and $365C buying indicate bullish institutional positioning. |
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Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $756 · QQQ $744 · VIX 16.2 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 16.2 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$745P |
57d |
1 |
$11.91 |
$1,191 |
7.6% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$765P |
57d |
1 |
$19.15 |
$1,915 |
12.3% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$735P |
57d |
2 |
$9.52 |
$1,904 |
12.2% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $765P 57d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$719 |
109% |
$98,468 |
| Correction -10% |
$681 |
99% |
$98,000 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$643 |
96% |
$97,532 |
| Crash -20% |
$605 |
94% |
$97,065 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$735P |
57d |
1 |
$20.23 |
$2,023 |
13.0% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$755P |
57d |
1 |
$28.56 |
$2,856 |
18.3% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$725P |
57d |
2 |
$16.70 |
$3,340 |
21.4% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $755P 57d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$707 |
113% |
$97,684 |
| Correction -10% |
$670 |
100% |
$97,155 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$633 |
96% |
$96,627 |
| Crash -20% |
$595 |
94% |
$96,098 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:04 ET
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June 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Jun 01 – Jun 03 (MTD) · Hit rate: 31/51 · Avg return: +0.7% · YTD: +20.4%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 11 months |
| Return |
+66.2% |
Ann. |
74.0% |
Sharpe |
3.03 |
Max DD |
-4.8% |
| Win% |
91% |
Alpha |
+49.3% |
SPY |
+22.4% |
$100K → |
$166,180 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-05 · 243 months |
| Total |
2,248% |
Ann. |
16.9% |
Sharpe |
1.05 |
Max DD |
-50.7% |
| Win% |
67% |
Alpha |
+7.7% |
SPY |
490% |
$100K → |
$2,347,977 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| SNDK |
6.4% |
-1.8% |
| TD |
6.3% |
+2.1% |
| RY |
6.1% |
+1.3% |
| CBOE |
5.8% |
-3.8% |
| AMD |
5.2% |
+4.3% |
| GOOGL |
4.7% |
-3.1% |
| AVGO |
4.6% |
+4.3% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
+10.1% |
| GLW |
4.2% |
+13.7% |
| ESLT |
2.9% |
-2.6% |
| BBVA |
2.9% |
-0.9% |
| KEYS |
2.6% |
+5.4% |
| AAON |
2.6% |
+3.4% |
| FTHF |
2.2% |
-0.8% |
| ARM |
2.2% |
-5.8% |
| MO |
2.2% |
+3.7% |
| KYIV |
2.0% |
-0.8% |
| GM |
1.9% |
+0.8% |
| BNS |
1.9% |
+2.7% |
| EW |
1.8% |
-1.4% |
| AMZN |
1.8% |
-2.2% |
| AAPL |
1.8% |
+2.8% |
| SAIC |
1.7% |
-3.5% |
| UNP |
1.5% |
+1.1% |
| FSBC |
1.4% |
+1.3% |
| TRP |
1.3% |
+3.9% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| SIGI |
1.2% |
+0.1% |
| CORZ |
1.1% |
+1.2% |
| BOTT |
1.1% |
-1.9% |
| CELC |
1.0% |
-27.5% |
| PL |
1.0% |
-2.7% |
| NJR |
1.0% |
+1.8% |
| CNC |
1.0% |
-4.7% |
| MXL |
1.0% |
+10.1% |
| MGA |
0.9% |
+5.1% |
| MU |
0.9% |
+1.1% |
| FCNCA |
0.9% |
+2.2% |
| CM |
0.8% |
+2.2% |
| GIII |
0.8% |
+0.6% |
| COHR |
0.8% |
+14.6% |
| RBA |
0.7% |
-0.0% |
| ENB |
0.7% |
+3.5% |
| CHRW |
0.6% |
-0.6% |
| TJX |
0.3% |
+1.6% |
| GD |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
-3.1% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
-6.4% |
| META |
0.2% |
+1.8% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+1.0% |
| JPM |
0.2% |
+1.0% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+2.0% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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