Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe here — free, every trading day.
MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
June 01, 2026 · All times ET
Regime BULL Day 8
Market Snapshot · 10:06 ET
S&P 500
755.61
-0.12%
Nasdaq
736.79
-0.21%
Dow
510.03
-0.15%
Russell 2k
287.11
-1.14%
VIX
16.13
+5.29%
20Y Bond
84.85
-1.06%
Gold
408.54
-2.06%
Silver
66.91
-2.09%
Oil
138.04
+6.93%
USD
27.82
+0.60%
CNN Fear & Greed
60 Greed
wk +1 · mo -11
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bullish Sup: 741.09 Res: 758.08 RSI: 73.2
QQQ Trend: Bullish Sup: 712.15 Res: 741.63 RSI: 75.4
Econ Calendar
8 high-impact · Mon Jun 01 – Wed Jun 03 · as of 10:06 ET
Mon Jun 01
09:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) — est. 55.3, prev. 54.5
10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) — est. 53.3, prev. 52.7
10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (May) — est. 85.3, prev. 84.6
Tue Jun 02
05:00 EU CPI (YoY) (May) — est. 3.3%, prev. 3.0%
10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) — est. 6.870M, prev. 6.866M
Wed Jun 03
08:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) — est. 116K, prev. 109K
09:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (May) — est. 50.9, prev. 50.9
10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) — est. 53.8, prev. 53.6
Macro Snapshot
10:09 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 3.98% -1bps
10Y Yield 4.45% +0bps
Spread +47bps Steepening
DXY 99.33 +0.33%
VIX/3M 0.85 Contango
HY OAS 6.86% -0.02%
BZ–WTI 0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
GDXJ–GLD 0.2776
$113.43 · $408.68
z -0.80 · Neutral · ρ 84%
BTC $71,542 -2.8%
ETH $1,967 -1.8%
ETH/BTC 0.0275
Sector Rotation · Today
10:09 ET
Energy
+2.11%
XLE
Technology
+1.05%
XLK
Financials
-0.16%
XLF
Communication
-0.52%
XLC
Cons. Staples
-0.58%
XLP
Real Estate
-0.63%
XLRE
Industrials
-0.77%
XLI
Health Care
-1.01%
XLV
Materials
-1.09%
XLB
Cons. Discr.
-1.47%
XLY
Utilities
-1.61%
XLU
In today's BULL regime, Energy and Technology lead as cyclicals and growth sectors outperform, while defensives like Utilities lag, signaling continued risk-on appetite.
Regime Timeline
HMM Regime Detection — SPY 90-day timeline
From the Desk · BULL Day 8 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a BULL regime for 8 days, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping 0.12% and 0.21% respectively, while the Russell 2k underperformed with a 1.14% move. Worth watching is the divergence between rising oil prices on Iran-US tensions and the 8-day-old bull regime's relatively muted moves in major indices, particularly with the Dow only down 0.15%.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — White House
This Just-Released Economic Indicator Spells Doom for President Trump’s Economy
24/ 1d ago
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:09 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
SPCE mixed 49
“$SPCE $GLXY”
WSB 366 pts · 5/5 subs
DELL mixed 45
“Nvidia jumps into PCs with new Arm-based chip debuting in laptops from Microsoft…”
WSB 1178 pts · 5/5 subs
MU mixed 32
“+6,476.76% gain on MU LEAPS, should I sell?”
WSB 1155 pts · 5/5 subs
AMD mixed 24
“Japan Joins U.S. ‘AI Manhattan Project,’ Pledging $500 Million to Counter China …”
WSB 833 pts · 5/5 subs
NVDA mixed 20
“Japan Joins U.S. ‘AI Manhattan Project,’ Pledging $500 Million to Counter China …”
WSB 833 pts · 5/5 subs
MSFT bullish 13
“Japan Joins U.S. ‘AI Manhattan Project,’ Pledging $500 Million to Counter China …”
WSB 833 pts · 4/5 subs
BRO mixed 12
“[DD] - Figma Ligma FIG”
WSB 151 pts · 5/5 subs
ARM mixed 11
“Nvidia jumps into PCs with new Arm-based chip debuting in laptops from Microsoft…”
WSB 1178 pts · 5/5 subs
Insider Wire
2635 Form 4s filed · 10:06 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-27 to 2026-06-01
Executives and insiders are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with a flurry of large sales across tech and consumer sectors, led by SNOW and ABNB CEOs.
Ticker Insider Value
SELL SNOW Slootman Frank Director $93.4M
SELL ABNB Chesky Brian CEO and Chairman $68.4M
SELL NET Zatlyn Michelle President and Board Co-Chair $18.3M
SELL CRWV Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer $7.9M
SELL APP Shikin Vasily Chief Technology Officer $7.7M
SELL vicr VINCIARELLI PATRIZIO Chairman and CEO $6.8M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 10:10 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
UPST 32.0% 5.3d -4.3% HIGH
BYND 27.0% 1.4d -3.4% ELEVATED
SMCI 18.0% 2.2d -6.4% ELEVATED
GME 14.1% 5.5d -6.4% MODERATE
RIVN 14.1% 5.2d +1.3% MODERATE
CVNA 13.7% 5.8d +2.0% MODERATE
SOFI 13.7% 2.5d +9.3% LOW
ARM 13.3% 1.7d +17.8% LOW
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor
8116 scanned · 49 SEC-confirmed· 4 red · 26 yellow
Ticker Struct Ignit Final Hldrs Flags Bucket
JILL 0.38 0.85 0.62 66% PREGRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ RED
SONO 0.41 0.85 0.47 42% GRINDCOVERELEVLADDERATM* RED
MNPR 0.39 0.85 0.46 68% GRINDCOVERELEVATM RED
BJRI 0.30 0.85 0.43 62% GRINDCOVERELEV RED
LCID 0.55 0.10 0.55 76% PREELEVATM* YELLOW
NTAP 0.13 0.85 0.43 37% IGNGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
EVEX 0.27 0.85 0.42 88% GRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
BALY 0.25 0.85 0.41 41% GRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ YELLOW
AUR 0.22 0.85 0.40 94% GRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
ACA 0.06 0.85 0.40 26% IGNGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
+ 20 more yellow names not shown
Market Headlines
8 sources · 10:06 ET
US Bonds Drop as Doubt Over US-Iran Talks Lifts Oil Prices
BBG 24m ago
With doubts over US-Iran talks lifting oil prices, it's likely that risk assets will decline, and safe-havens like the US dollar, gold, and bonds will see increased demand. Keep an eye on developments in US-Iran diplomatic efforts and oil inventory levels, as these could significantly impact market sentiment. A rise in oil prices may also lead to a stronger Canadian dollar and changes in inflation expectations.
FJ Bank of America: US Jobs and Euro Area Inflation in Focus - FJElite
Today's focus on US jobs and Euro area inflation data may lead to market movements depending on the actual numbers released. Strong US jobs data could result in USD appreciation and equities rising, while weak data could lead to USD depreciation and equities declining. Monitor these data releases closely to gauge their impact on your portfolio.
1h ago
BBG Oil Jumps on Report Iran to Halt Exchanges With US: Markets Wrap
The report of Iran halting exchanges with the US has led to increased oil prices due to supply concerns. This may result in a decline in equities and a rise in safe-havens. Keep an eye on developments in US-Iran relations and crude inventory levels, as these could affect the trajectory of oil prices and, in turn, impact risk assets.
15h ago
BBG Chile Investors Turn Back to Peso Notes as If War Never Happened
Chile's financial markets appear to be returning to normalcy, with investors turning back to peso notes. This could lead to a stronger Chilean peso and increased investment in Chilean assets. Monitor local economic indicators to gauge the sustainability of this trend and potential changes in Chile's economic outlook.
2h ago
FJ MOO Imbalance 36m ago
FJ Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy: 15 ships, including 4 oil tankers, passed through Strait of Hormuz after obtaining permission from Iran in the last 24 hours - Fars.
The passage of 15 Iranian ships, including oil tankers, through the Strait of Hormuz has raised geopolitical tensions, potentially leading to higher oil prices and a decline in risk assets. Keep an eye on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and oil tanker rates, as these could impact supply chain disruptions and market sentiment. A rise in tanker rates and product cracks could be a sign of escalating tensions.
3h ago
FJ US CENTCOM: US forces intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles last night targeting American forces based in Kuwait. 1h ago
FJ ECB's Consumer Survey: Inflation expectations 1 year ahead steady at 4.0%, 3-yrs ahead ease to 2.9% from 3.0%. 6h ago
Financial Wire
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:06 ET
FJ Iran Halts US Talks Over Israel Violations
Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel could impact crude prices and risk assets.
13m ago
FJ ECB Rate Hike Expectations Rise
Traders pricing in a 25bps June ECB hike could strengthen the EUR and impact European risk assets.
41m ago
FJ US Construction Spending Beats Forecasts
Strong US construction spending could lead to higher US yields and a stronger USD.
6m ago
FJ Geopolitical Risks Rise in Middle East
Escalating tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran could lead to increased risk aversion and crude price volatility.
6m ago
FJ Eurozone PMI Data Shows Resilience
Strong Eurozone PMI data could support the EUR and European risk assets, while also influencing ECB policy.
6h ago
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
Research Digest
10:09 ET
BSAC $31.66 -0.8% Bullish
Composite 23 1M -0.2% 3M -3.2% 1Y +30.0% UP
Target $33
Banco Santander-Chile (BSAC) reported strong Q1 profitability despite macroeconomic uncertainty, with management citing higher inflation as a near-term support for margins. The stock has become oversold, with a potential trend reversal indicated by strong agreement among Wall Street analysts revising earnings estimates higher. However, weaker growth and household pressures could weigh on the stock later in the year, posing a risk to the thesis.
ZAC Are You Looking for a High-Growth Dividend Stock?
MAR Banco Santander Chile Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
ZAC Down 8.3% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why You Should You Buy the Dip in Banco Santander-Chile (BSAC)
DFIS $36.44 -1.2% Bullish
Composite 54 1M +3.4% 3M +1.3% 1Y +28.0% UP
DFIS, a Dimensional International Small Cap ETF, has seen increased attention due to its potential for diversification and stability in private credit amid market volatility. The ETF has delivered returns of +3.4% in 1 month, +1.3% in 3 months, and +28.0% in 1 year, with a composite score of 54/100 and an uptrend. However, market enthusiasm may be misplaced if investors overestimate the benefits of emerging market development finance.
STO Understanding the Setup: (DFIS) and Scalable Risk - Stock Traders Daily
ODI Emerging market development finance provides diversification and stability to private credit amid cu
QUI Planning Center, Inc. - Portfolio Stock Holdings - Quiver Quantitative
CECO $76.92 +2.9% Bearish
Composite 58 1M +0.8% 3M +29.3% 1Y +173.4% DOWN
Target $86
CECO Environmental shares plunged 8.9% after stockholders approved its merger with Thermon Group Holdings and a new equity plan that could dilute existing shareholders. The stock has a median price target of $86 from analysts, who have assigned it a strong buy rating. However, the merger and equity plan may weigh on the stock's short-term performance.
STO Why CECO Environmental (CECO) Shares Are Plunging Today
STO 1 Cash-Producing Stock to Own for Decades and 2 We Avoid
STO 3 Services Stocks for Long-Term Investors
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Analyst Moves
10:10 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
NVDA Buy 63 / 4 / 1 2026-06-01
AMZN Buy 71 / 5 / 0 2026-06-01
MSFT Buy 61 / 5 / 0 2026-06-01
META Buy 63 / 9 / 0 2026-06-01
RY Buy 19 / 5 / 0 2026-06-01
AAPL Buy 38 / 15 / 2 2026-06-01
CASY Buy 17 / 9 / 0 2026-06-01
ARM Buy 28 / 14 / 2 2026-06-01
IPO Calendar
10:10 ET
Date Company Range Size
Jun 03 AADX Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. — $785M
Jun 04 INIO INNIO Holding GmbH — $2.3B
Jun 04 SSMR Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co — $380M
Jun 04 QNT Quantinuum Inc. — $1.2B
Jun 04 SFPT Safepoint Holdings, Inc. — $326M
Jun 05 WHK WhiteHawk Income Corp — $215M
Congressional Trades
3 disclosures · 14d
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
Member Ticker Type Amount
Jake Auchincloss STT Sale $15,001 - $50,000
Jake Auchincloss STT Sale $15,001 - $50,000
Tim Moore T Purchase $15,001 - $50,000
Market Movers
FMP real-time
Top Gainers
TGHL +406.0% $1.76 HKIT +280.1% $5.55 SOAR +122.9% $0.38 OPTU +89.9% $1.25 JZ +82.7% $1.33
Top Losers
ABVE -76.4% $0.14 ZCMD -43.1% $0.10 MYND -39.1% $0.37 POAS -36.6% $0.33 OCS -33.6% $15.08
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 10:10 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 395,926 208,996 186,930
0.89
$756C 38,451 vol
SPY: Call-heavy flow with $756C hot, suggests bullish positioning in a strong market.
NVDA 281,222 201,518 79,704
0.40
$220C 74,808 vol
NVDA: Aggressive call buying, P/C=0.40, indicates bullish bet, particularly at $220C with 74,808 vol.
QQQ 238,739 111,978 126,761
1.13
$740C 17,146 vol
QQQ: Put-call ratio of 1.13 and $740C activity suggest mixed flow, no clear directional signal.
TSLA 142,961 83,013 59,948
0.72
$405C 14,716 vol
TSLA: Call-heavy flow, P/C=0.72, with $405C interest, implies bullish positioning.
AMD 23,382 9,206 14,176
1.54
$500C 589 vol
AMD: Put-call ratio of 1.54 and low call vol, suggests bearish or protective positioning.
Income Plays
10:09 ET
AMD CC Best Quality Very High · max 3% $805B · Earnings Aug 04
$530C 23 DTE +69.9% ann. +8.0% OTM Δ 0.07 POP 93%
AMD faces competition from Nvidia, which recently debuted its RTX Spark processor for Windows laptops, targeting Intel and AMD.
MXL CC Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $8B · Earnings Jul 22
$100C 23 DTE +228.9% ann. +7.3% OTM Δ 0.09 POP 91%
MaxLinear's stock jumped 84% overnight as its AI optical business surged 136%, with the stock price currently at $63.
ARM CC Safest High · max 2% $417B · Earnings Jul 29
$345C 31 DTE +67.2% ann. +13.9% OTM Δ 0.07 POP 93%
ARM's stock is being driven by Nvidia's new AI platform, with some analysts predicting limited upside despite a recent 177% rally.
Portfolio Hedge
SPY $756 · QQQ $738 · VIX 16.1
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 16.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$745P 59d 1 $12.36 $1,236 7.6%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$765P 59d 1 $20.23 $2,023 12.5%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$735P 59d 2 $9.80 $1,960 12.1%
Scenario: 1× SPY $765P 59d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario SPY Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $719 109% $98,375
Correction -10% $681 99% $97,906
Bear leg -15% $643 96% $97,438
Crash -20% $605 94% $96,970
QQQ Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$730P 59d 1 $20.32 $2,032 12.6%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$750P 59d 1 $29.14 $2,914 18.0%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$715P 59d 2 $15.52 $3,104 19.2%
Scenario: 1× QQQ $750P 59d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario QQQ Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $701 115% $97,730
Correction -10% $664 101% $97,170
Bear leg -15% $627 96% $96,609
Crash -20% $590 94% $96,049
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:09 ET
June 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Jun 01 – Jun 01 (MTD) · Hit rate: 32/53 · Avg return: +0.2% · YTD: +16.4%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months
Return +27.8% Ann. 34.2% Sharpe 1.75 Max DD -5.5%
Win% 70% Alpha +14.3% SPY +16.3% $100K → $127,795
Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 242 months
Total 635% Ann. 10.4% Sharpe 0.68 Max DD -53.7%
Win% 62% Alpha +1.5% SPY 460% $100K → $735,436
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
CASY 6.1% -0.0%
RY 6.0% +0.4%
BWET 4.5% +0.9%
ARM 4.5% -0.6%
FOX 2.9% +0.3%
BBVA 2.9% +0.4%
ESLT 2.9% +0.1%
AVGO 2.8% +0.3%
TRP 2.8% -0.1%
BNS 2.8% +0.4%
PECO 2.8% +0.1%
KEYS 2.6% +0.2%
AAON 2.6% -0.2%
PM 2.3% +0.7%
FTHF 2.2% +0.0%
CORZ 2.2% +1.5%
NSC 2.1% +0.0%
CDP 1.9% +0.2%
INDB 1.5% +0.4%
WTS 1.5% +0.5%
THG 1.5% +0.2%
TD 1.4% +0.2%
FMX 1.3% +0.2%
GM 1.3% +0.5%
CELC 1.2% -0.4%
PL 1.2% +1.5%
SIGI 1.2% +0.4%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
LEA 1.2% +0.2%
MXL 1.2% +0.1%
ALAB 1.1% +0.2%
BOTT 1.1% +0.2%
MU 1.1% +0.5%
CNC 1.1% -0.2%
AXTI 1.1% +0.9%
SAIC 1.1% +0.5%
MGA 1.0% +0.3%
COST 1.0% -0.1%
CMI 1.0% -0.0%
EME 0.8% -0.4%
JNJ 0.4% -0.2%
FCNCA 0.4% -0.2%
EPD 0.3% -0.2%
TJX 0.3% +0.0%
RBA 0.3% -0.2%
META 0.2% -0.1%
AMZN 0.2% -0.2%
GOOGL 0.2% +0.2%
AAPL 0.2% -0.2%
NVDA 0.2% +0.2%
BRK.B 0.2% -0.0%
MSFT 0.2% -0.7%
TSLA 0.2% +0.2%
JPM 0.2% +0.5%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Enjoy this briefing? Forward it to a colleague.
New here? Subscribe free — delivered every trading day before 10 AM ET.
MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
Quantitative edge, daily.
Subscribe · Contact · RSS · Sponsor
Unsubscribe