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Markets · Options · Signal
May 26, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 13:33 ET
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S&P 500
749.16
+0.47%
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Nasdaq
727.89
+1.44%
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Dow
504.80
-0.26%
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Russell 2k
289.55
+1.55%
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VIX
17.13
+3.25%
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20Y Bond
84.98
+0.35%
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Gold
413.23
-0.14%
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Silver
68.89
+0.78%
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Oil
137.61
-2.35%
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USD
27.75
-0.05%
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CNN Fear & Greed
60
Greed
wk +1 · mo -5
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 733.26 |
Res: 752.13 |
RSI: 70.5 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 698.09 |
Res: 731.17 |
RSI: 74.8 |
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|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.13% |
+5bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.56% |
-1bps |
| Spread |
+43bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
99.14 |
+0.13% |
| VIX/3M |
0.86 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.98% |
+0.00% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
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z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2819
$116.42 · $413.02
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z -0.47 · Neutral · ρ 84%
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| BTC |
$75,862 |
-1.8% |
| ETH |
$2,064 |
-2.2% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0272 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
13:42 ET |
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Technology
+2.39%
XLK
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Materials
+1.36%
XLB
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Industrials
+1.36%
XLI
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Utilities
+0.47%
XLU
|
Real Estate
+0.38%
XLRE
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Communication
+0.05%
XLC
|
|
Financials
-0.32%
XLF
|
Cons. Discr.
-0.32%
XLY
|
Health Care
-0.54%
XLV
|
|
Cons. Staples
-1.40%
XLP
|
Energy
-1.92%
XLE
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In today's Bull regime, tech, materials, and industrials lead, while defensives like healthcare and consumer staples lag, signaling a clear risk-on rotation.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 4 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a BULL regime for 4 days, with the S&P 500 up 0.47% and Nasdaq up 1.44% from the previous close, while the Dow fell 0.26%. Worth watching is the tension between rising inflation expectations, as shown by the Conference Board's consumer inflation expectations, and Citadel Securities' call for the Fed to pivot to inflation fighting, even as stocks rise amid Iran peace hopes.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 13:41 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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META
mixed
49
“$ASTS The Space Trade Came - now it's time for post nut clarity.”
WSB 2316 pts · 5/5 subs
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NVDA
mixed
30
“Tried explaining covered calls to a date and now I’m banned from Applebee’s.”
WSB 6328 pts · 5/5 subs
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BRO
mixed
29
“$ASTS The Space Trade Came - now it's time for post nut clarity.”
WSB 2316 pts · 5/5 subs
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AMD
bullish
27
“AMD +$11M”
WSB 5479 pts · 4/5 subs
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RKLB
mixed
24
“If space X is overvalued then RKLB is 5x worst.”
WSB 746 pts · 4/5 subs
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MU
mixed
23
“MU made me a millionaire”
WSB 2021 pts · 4/5 subs
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TSLA
mixed
18
“Why the app you’re using should be a stock you own ($RDDT)”
WSB 748 pts · 4/5 subs
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PLTR
mixed
15
“If space X is overvalued then RKLB is 5x worst.”
WSB 746 pts · 3/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
2774 Form 4s filed · 13:38 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-21 to 2026-05-26
CEOs and executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with notable sales in the tech sector, specifically in cybersecurity and data storage, led by CRWV and NET CEOs.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
NET |
Prince Matthew CEO & Board Co-Chair |
$32.6M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Intrator Michael N CEO and President |
$30.3M |
| SELL |
STX |
MOSLEY WILLIAM D CEO |
$22.5M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$8.4M |
| SELL |
ORKA |
Dambkowski Carl Director |
$6.2M |
| SELL |
XMTR |
Altschuler Randolph Chief Executive Officer |
$4.4M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 13:42 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.3% |
6.2d |
-2.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
27.6% |
1.4d |
-11.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| OKLO |
18.9% |
2.0d |
+19.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
17.9% |
2.6d |
-3.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
17.5% |
3.1d |
+19.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
14.5% |
8.6d |
-5.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| RIVN |
14.1% |
6.0d |
-0.4% |
MODERATE
|
| CVNA |
13.1% |
4.9d |
-10.5% |
MODERATE
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8112 scanned · 66 SEC-confirmed· 5 red · 39 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| SONO |
0.46 |
0.85 |
0.49 |
42% |
GRINDCOVERELEVLADDERATM* |
RED
|
| AMCX |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
47% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| BIIB |
0.31 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
75% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| CBIO |
0.53 |
0.65 |
0.33 |
79% |
COOLGRINDADDELEVATM* |
RED
|
| FBYD |
0.33 |
0.85 |
0.32 |
88% |
COOLGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| GETY |
0.22 |
0.85 |
0.47 |
18% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| CBRL |
0.30 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
36% |
GRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| NTAP |
0.12 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
37% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| FORR |
0.27 |
0.85 |
0.42 |
56% |
GRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
+ 34 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 13:38 ET |
Bank Of America: US Rates Sell Off as Reflation and Fiscal Concerns Build - FJElite
FJ 4h ago
With US rates selling off due to reflation and fiscal concerns, it's likely that we'll see a strengthening USD and a potential rotation out of growth stocks into value stocks. Keep an eye on US yield movements and upcoming economic data to gauge the market's reaction. If economic data shows resilience, the sell-off in rates might lead to a moderate market reaction.
| FJ |
Conference Board: Consumers' average and median 12-month inflation expectations ticked downward but continued to be elevated. The percentage of consumers saying interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net rose to nearly 50%.
The slight decrease in consumers' inflation expectations might lead to a perceived decrease in inflationary pressure, which could be positive for equities. However, if consumer spending shows signs of decline, decreased inflation expectations could lead to growth concerns. Monitor consumer spending data and inflation expectations surveys for further insight.
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3h ago |
| CNBC |
Jay Woods is watching two beaten-down software stocks into earnings this week
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9m ago |
| BBG |
Citadel Securities Says Fed Must Pivot to Inflation Fighting
Citadel Securities' suggestion that the Fed must pivot to inflation fighting could lead to a market adjustment for tighter monetary policy, potentially impacting the USD, commodities, and equities. Watch for Fed communications and inflation data to gauge the market's reaction. If the Fed pushes back against market expectations, we might see a delayed reaction in financial markets.
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1h ago |
| BBG |
Stocks Rise Toward Record as Iran Peace Hopes Hold: Markets Wrap
The rise in Iran peace hopes has led to decreased geopolitical risk, which could result in a market rally, lower oil prices, and a stronger USD. However, if peace talks stall or fail, we might see an escalation in geopolitical risk, leading to a flight to safe-haven assets. Keep an eye on developments in Iran peace talks and oil price movements.
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19h ago |
| BBG |
European Stocks End Six-Day Winning Run; BP Falls as Chair Fired
The firing of BP's chair has raised corporate governance concerns, potentially impacting BP's stock price and European indices. If the leadership change is perceived as positive or a one-off event, the impact might be limited. Monitor BP's stock performance and European market indices for further insight into the market's reaction.
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10h ago |
| BBG |
Gold Declines as Gulf Strikes Cloud Interest Rate Outlook
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18h ago |
| FJ |
Treasury WI 2y yield 4.071% before $69 billion auction
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38m ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 13:38 ET |
| FJ |
US 2-Year Note Auction Sees High Yield
Higher yields may signal market expectations of future rate hikes
|
35m ago |
| FJ |
Lebanon Conflict Escalates
Geopolitical tensions may impact risk sentiment and oil prices
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49m ago |
| FJ |
Fed Bids for Short-Term Notes
Fed's liquidity management may influence short-term interest rates
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53m ago |
| FJ |
Crude and Diesel Export Limitations
Supply constraints may drive up crude and diesel prices
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1h ago |
| FJ |
ECB's Bond Holdings and Forex Reserves
ECB's balance sheet management may impact euro and market liquidity
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4h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 38 flashes scanned
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BSAC
$31.88
+2.9%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 2 |
1M -8.7% |
3M -13.5% |
1Y +24.4% |
DOWN |
Banco Santander-Chile (BSAC) reported strong Q1 profitability despite macroeconomic uncertainty, with management citing higher inflation as a near-term support for margins. The stock has become oversold, with a 1M return of -8.7% and 3M return of -13.5%, but has a 1Y return of +24.4%. The market may be mispricing the risk of weaker growth and household pressures later in the year.
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DFIS
$36.76
+1.3%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 50 |
1M +2.5% |
3M -0.9% |
1Y +28.4% |
UP |
DFIS has gained attention from institutions due to its technical signals, with a focus on emerging market development finance providing diversification and stability to private credit amid current volatility. The ETF has shown a 1Y return of +28.4% and a 1M return of +2.5%, with a composite score of 50/100 and an UP trend. However, with a BULL regime in place, there's a risk that the market may be overpricing the ETF's potential.
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CECO
$88.31
+8.1%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 65 |
1M +25.9% |
3M +36.2% |
1Y +198.9% |
UP |
CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO) has a strong buy rating from analysts, with a median price target of $86, and has seen significant insider activity with a 41.2x minute spike and an insider score of 80. The stock has delivered impressive returns, with 1M +25.9%, 3M +36.2%, and 1Y +198.9%. However, with a composite score of 65/100 and a BULL HMM regime, the market may be overpricing CECO's growth prospects.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-05-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
|
2026-05-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 27 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
| May 27 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
|
Congressional Trades |
2 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Jake Auchincloss |
STT |
Sale |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
| Jake Auchincloss |
STT |
Sale |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
YMAT
+181.2%
$1.28
VCIG
+103.0%
$2.70
CODX
+101.2%
$10.20
BRAI
+97.6%
$14.17
PHGE
+93.6%
$1.58
Top Losers
ADTX
-52.8%
$0.24
YYGH
-45.8%
$0.20
ENHA
-40.5%
$3.19
PLYX
-35.3%
$2.33
GMM
-30.5%
$0.19
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 13:42 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
4,198,932 |
2,221,770 |
1,977,162 |
0.89
|
$751C 456,908 vol |
| SPY: Call-heavy flow with $751C leading the way, suggests bullish positioning. |
| QQQ |
2,960,194 |
1,404,348 |
1,555,846 |
1.11
|
$728C 242,893 vol |
| QQQ: Elevated P/C ratio of 1.11, mixed flow, no clear directional signal. |
| TSLA |
1,415,514 |
993,310 |
422,204 |
0.43
|
$435C 204,107 vol |
| TSLA: Aggressive call buying with $435C hot, indicates bullish bet. |
| NVDA |
1,331,588 |
914,717 |
416,871 |
0.46
|
$218C 292,712 vol |
| NVDA: Call-heavy flow with $218C standout, implies bullish institutional positioning. |
| AMD |
183,482 |
104,596 |
78,886 |
0.75
|
$500C 20,810 vol |
| AMD: Light volume, but call-heavy with $500C leading, suggests modest bullish bet. |
|
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AMD
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$811B
· Earnings May 05
|
| $530C |
23 DTE |
+69.9% ann. |
+8.0% OTM |
Δ 0.07 |
POP 93% |
|
| AMD stock is drawing attention alongside Nvidia and Intel as a momentum stock that appears unstoppable, according to a Barron's analysis. |
|
MXL
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$9B
· Earnings Apr 23
|
| $100C |
23 DTE |
+228.9% ann. |
+7.3% OTM |
Δ 0.09 |
POP 91% |
|
| MaxLinear's AI Optical Business surged 136%, contributing to an 84% overnight stock jump, currently trading around $63, according to TradingKey. |
|
ARM
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$336B
· Earnings May 06
|
| $345C |
31 DTE |
+67.2% ann. |
+13.9% OTM |
Δ 0.07 |
POP 93% |
|
| Arm Holdings plc (ARM) faces a US antitrust probe over its chip technology, according to a Bloomberg News report cited by Yahoo Finance. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $749 · QQQ $728 · VIX 17.1 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 17.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$740P |
65d |
1 |
$14.61 |
$1,461 |
8.2% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$760P |
65d |
1 |
$23.02 |
$2,302 |
12.9% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$734P |
65d |
2 |
$12.79 |
$2,558 |
14.4% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $760P 65d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$711 |
114% |
$98,311 |
| Correction -10% |
$674 |
101% |
$97,805 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$636 |
97% |
$97,299 |
| Crash -20% |
$599 |
95% |
$96,793 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$720P |
65d |
1 |
$22.01 |
$2,201 |
12.4% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$740P |
65d |
1 |
$31.03 |
$3,103 |
17.4% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$713P |
65d |
2 |
$19.46 |
$3,892 |
21.9% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $740P 65d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$691 |
114% |
$97,504 |
| Correction -10% |
$655 |
100% |
$96,893 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$619 |
95% |
$96,282 |
| Crash -20% |
$582 |
93% |
$95,671 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 13:42 ET
|
|
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 26 (MTD) · Hit rate: 34/50 · Avg return: +5.9% · YTD: +29.2%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+69.6% |
Ann. |
88.5% |
Sharpe |
3.62 |
Max DD |
-5.5% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+68.6% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$169,589 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months |
| Total |
9,766% |
Ann. |
25.9% |
Sharpe |
1.40 |
Max DD |
-43.6% |
| Win% |
66% |
Alpha |
+15.5% |
SPY |
616% |
$100K → |
$9,865,673 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| AVGO |
6.4% |
+0.3% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+15.6% |
| FBLA |
5.6% |
+0.9% |
| GOOGL |
5.4% |
+0.0% |
| WMT |
5.4% |
-9.9% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
-7.0% |
| GEV |
4.5% |
+1.6% |
| SNDK |
4.1% |
+34.8% |
| OKLO |
4.0% |
+0.5% |
| WELL |
3.6% |
+0.4% |
| TRP |
3.3% |
+4.0% |
| PH |
2.9% |
-2.2% |
| WTS |
2.9% |
+6.1% |
| AMG |
2.9% |
+5.3% |
| BIIB |
2.9% |
+3.6% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
-8.2% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+3.3% |
| MU |
2.1% |
+64.2% |
| CRDO |
2.0% |
+17.9% |
| L |
1.9% |
-2.5% |
| CASY |
1.8% |
-2.8% |
| GVA |
1.8% |
-4.2% |
| BE |
1.6% |
+6.2% |
| CTRE |
1.3% |
+6.2% |
| AMZN |
1.2% |
-2.2% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| ALAB |
1.2% |
+55.8% |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
+4.4% |
| LAR |
1.1% |
-5.3% |
| INBX |
1.1% |
-18.9% |
| PL |
1.1% |
+37.3% |
| VICR |
1.0% |
+18.8% |
| MIRM |
1.0% |
+2.6% |
| APGE |
1.0% |
+2.5% |
| ARGX |
1.0% |
+2.9% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+8.8% |
| LWLG |
0.9% |
-25.3% |
| AAOI |
0.9% |
-1.5% |
| HLT |
0.8% |
+1.2% |
| RMBS |
0.5% |
+38.7% |
| AHR |
0.5% |
+0.7% |
| MO |
0.4% |
-3.1% |
| MDLZ |
0.4% |
+0.5% |
| GRMN |
0.2% |
-1.2% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+7.7% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+11.9% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+10.6% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+10.6% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+2.4% |
| META |
0.2% |
+0.2% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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