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Markets · Options · Signal
May 21, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:12 ET
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S&P 500
740.13
-0.15%
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Nasdaq
710.96
-0.31%
|
Dow
500.44
+0.04%
|
Russell 2k
281.00
+0.40%
|
VIX
17.42
-0.11%
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20Y Bond
83.57
-0.41%
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Gold
413.51
-0.93%
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Silver
67.98
-1.09%
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Oil
148.09
+2.65%
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USD
27.80
+0.27%
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CNN Fear & Greed
60
Greed
wk -5 · mo -8
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 729.88 |
Res: 749.53 |
RSI: 65.4 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 692.07 |
Res: 722.03 |
RSI: 68.5 |
|
Econ Calendar |
5 high-impact · Thu May 21 – Fri May 22 · as of 10:12 ET |
| Thu May 21 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 210K, prev. 212K |
| 08:30 |
US |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) — est. 17.6, prev. 26.7 |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) — est. 53.8, prev. 54.5 |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Services PMI (May) — est. 51.1, prev. 51.0 |
| Fri May 22 |
| 02:00 |
DE |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2% |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.04% |
-9bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.57% |
-10bps |
| Spread |
+53bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
99.37 |
+0.26% |
| VIX/3M |
0.84 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
7.16% |
+0.08% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
|
| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2689
$111.17 · $413.49
|
z -1.44 · Watch · ρ 85%
|
| BTC |
$77,107 |
-0.5% |
| ETH |
$2,120 |
-0.4% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0275 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
10:15 ET |
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Utilities
+0.63%
XLU
|
Energy
+0.33%
XLE
|
Technology
+0.10%
XLK
|
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Financials
-0.01%
XLF
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Materials
-0.13%
XLB
|
Health Care
-0.18%
XLV
|
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Real Estate
-0.18%
XLRE
|
Cons. Discr.
-0.47%
XLY
|
Industrials
-0.49%
XLI
|
|
Communication
-0.52%
XLC
|
Cons. Staples
-1.49%
XLP
|
In the BULL regime, Utilities and Energy lead, while Defensives like Cons. Staples lag, suggesting a mixed rotation with selective defensive bids.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 2 (prev. close)
“The market regime remains classified as BULL for 2 days, following a transition from RECOVERY, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.15% and 0.31% respectively, while the Russell 2k bucked the trend with a 0.40% gain. Worth watching is the divergence between rising yields, which Deutsche Bank notes may be sending a hike signal, and the relatively muted VIX implied volatility, as the US-Iran standoff boosts oil prices and Treasury yields climb.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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|
Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:14 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
|
NVDA
mixed
74
“NVDA earnings 600k yolo”
WSB 5099 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
bullish
47
“Apparently Fidelity is still giving these out”
WSB 1096 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
SPY
mixed
19
“I love 0 dte”
WSB 1559 pts · 4/5 subs
|
MU
mixed
18
“Apparently Fidelity is still giving these out”
WSB 1096 pts · 5/5 subs
|
|
QQQ
mixed
10
“I love 0 dte”
WSB 1559 pts · 4/5 subs
|
PLTR
bearish
10
“The market will literally never go down again”
WSB 10071 pts · 4/5 subs
|
|
STX
bullish
10
“NVDA Quarterly Revenue $81.6 billion (up 85% YoY)”
STK 1610 pts · 3/5 subs
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TOPS
bullish
9
“30-year Treasury yield tops 5.18%, highest since before the financial crisis”
SM 934 pts · 2/5 subs
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|
Insider Wire |
3749 Form 4s filed · 10:12 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-16 to 2026-05-21
CEOs and executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with notable sales in the cybersecurity sector, led by CRWV's Chief Strategy Officer offloading $37.9M.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$38.0M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Mohan Jitendra Chief Executive Officer |
$21.5M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Gajendra Sanjay President and COO |
$21.5M |
| SELL |
TDG |
Howley W Nicholas Insider |
$12.0M |
| SELL |
FRPT |
Cyr William B. Chief Executive Officer |
$4.6M |
| SELL |
CRWD |
Kurtz George PRESIDENT AND CEO |
$3.0M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:15 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.3% |
6.2d |
-2.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
27.6% |
1.4d |
-11.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
17.9% |
2.6d |
-3.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
17.5% |
3.1d |
+19.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
14.5% |
8.6d |
-5.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| RIVN |
14.1% |
6.0d |
-0.4% |
MODERATE
|
| CVNA |
13.1% |
4.9d |
-10.5% |
MODERATE
|
| SOFI |
12.7% |
2.6d |
-2.6% |
LOW
|
|
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8160 scanned · 80 SEC-confirmed· 3 red · 54 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| AMCX |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.58 |
47% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| FTK |
0.59 |
0.65 |
0.46 |
54% |
GRINDADDELEV |
RED
|
| BTSG |
0.39 |
0.85 |
0.22 |
87% |
BLOWGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| SEG |
0.35 |
0.65 |
0.50 |
62% |
PREGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| HTLD |
0.11 |
0.85 |
0.42 |
36% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| FORR |
0.27 |
0.85 |
0.42 |
56% |
GRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| KSPI |
0.24 |
0.85 |
0.41 |
67% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| NGNE |
0.43 |
0.65 |
0.41 |
81% |
GRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| AUR |
0.23 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
94% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
+ 47 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:12 ET |
Stocks Fall as US-Iran Standoff Boosts Oil, Yields: Markets Wrap
BBG 16h ago
The US-Iran standoff has introduced a new layer of geopolitical risk, causing stocks to fall and oil prices to rise. As the situation unfolds, markets will likely remain sensitive to any developments that could escalate tensions further. A risk-off sentiment may persist, with safe-haven assets like the USD and gold potentially benefiting. Keep an eye on crude oil prices and diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran.
| FJ |
Deutsche Bank: Treasury Markets Are Starting to Send a Hike Signal - FJElite
The Treasury market is sending a signal that a rate hike may be on the horizon, which could lead to higher yields and a stronger USD. If this signal is confirmed by the Fed, we could see a shift in market expectations, potentially causing yields to rise further. For now, it's essential to monitor Fed communications and upcoming economic data to gauge the likelihood of a rate hike.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
UniCredit: USD Still Driven Mainly by Risk, but Yields Are Becoming More Important - FJElite
The USD's movement is becoming more influenced by yield differentials, which could lead to a stronger USD if yields continue to rise. However, risk sentiment still plays a significant role, and a shift in market mood could alter the USD's trajectory. Keep an eye on economic data, yield movements, and risk sentiment indicators to better understand the USD's future direction.
|
1h ago |
| BBG |
US Stocks Fall as Oil, Yields Resume Climb; Walmart, Deer Slide
Ongoing concerns about inflation and growth are causing stocks to fall and yields to rise, leading to a risk-off sentiment. As the market navigates this uncertainty, it's crucial to monitor US economic data, corporate earnings reports, and geopolitical developments for signs of stabilization or further escalation. A relief rally may be possible if economic news or earnings reports surprise positively.
|
1h ago |
| MW |
Why a ‘meaningful’ selloff for stocks is needed to bring down bond yields
A meaningful selloff in stocks may be necessary to alleviate upward pressure on bond yields, according to some market observers. If stocks decline, yields could decrease, and credit markets may stabilize. However, if economic growth outlook improves, yields could decrease without a significant stock selloff, leading to a decoupling of stocks and yields.
|
37m ago |
| FJ |
BoE's Taylor, asked about April CPI inflation data: It's still early days.
The Bank of England's Taylor has expressed caution on inflation, but it's still early days, and the market reaction is muted. As the BoE's policy meeting and CPI data release approach, the GBP and Gilts may experience some movement. Monitoring these events will provide insight into the BoE's future actions and potential market implications.
|
1h ago |
| BBG |
Citi’s Manthey Sees Europe Stock Gains Thanks to Earnings Growth
|
45m ago |
| BBG |
Microsoft Is Market’s Biggest Drag as AI Woes Weigh Down Stock
|
5h ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:12 ET |
| FJ |
BoE Holds Rates, Sees 30-40% Recession Chance
BoE's Taylor signals rates may hold steady amid recession risk
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Iran Denies Uranium Export Reports
Geopolitical tensions ease, may impact crude and risk assets
|
20m ago |
| FJ |
US PMI Beats Forecast, Boosts Growth Outlook
Strong US manufacturing PMI may influence Fed rate decisions
|
27m ago |
| FJ |
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Improves
Eurozone sentiment improves, may impact ECB policy
|
10m ago |
| FJ |
Crude and Risk Assets React to Iran, US Data
Market sentiment shifts on Iran headlines and US economic data
|
1h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
|
|
INTC
$115.40
-3.0%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 66 |
1M +77.2% |
3M +162.2% |
1Y +443.8% |
FLAT |
Intel (INTC) shares jumped 4% after Melius Research analyst Benjamin Reitzes reiterated a buy rating and raised the price target to $150 from $100. Jim Cramer called Intel "one of the greatest turnarounds I've ever seen," citing demand outstripping supply. The market may be mispricing Intel's ability to sustain growth, given a 1Y return of +443.8% and analyst target of $85.
|
|
RGTI
$21.16
+25.4%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 19 |
1M -8.2% |
3M +6.0% |
1Y +41.6% |
DOWN |
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) surged 24% after the Trump Administration announced a $2 billion funding package to advance quantum computing, with Rigetti among the companies backed. The company reported Q1 sales of $4.4 million, up from $1.47 million a year earlier, alongside a large net loss. RGTI's recent shelf registration of $337.25 million for 17,806,062 common shares related to its ESOP may be a concern, potentially diluting shares.
|
|
NVDA
$222.63
-0.4%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 72 |
1M +10.8% |
3M +18.1% |
1Y +66.9% |
FLAT |
Nvidia reported Q1 earnings that beat estimates, with adjusted EPS of $1.87 (vs. $1.77) and revenue of $81.62 billion (vs. $79.18 billion). The company expects $20 billion in CPU sales this year and is entering the $200 billion CPU market. The market may be underestimating Nvidia's growth potential, but a rich valuation and competition in the CPU market pose risks.
|
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|
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-05-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
|
2026-05-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 21 |
CNXU
Conexeu Sciences Inc.
|
— |
— |
| May 21 |
FXACU
FortuneX Acquisition Corp
|
— |
$86M |
| May 21 |
APURU
Aperture AC
|
— |
$104M |
| May 27 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
| May 27 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
|
Congressional Trades |
5 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Tim Moore |
T |
Purchase |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
| Tim Moore |
IHG |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Tim Moore |
RYCEY |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| William R. Keating |
SPG |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| William R. Keating |
VMW |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
NIVF
+80.0%
$1.33
RGTX
+48.3%
$26.82
SBFM
+47.7%
$0.54
WHLR
+44.8%
$1.35
INFQ
+39.0%
$15.54
Top Losers
RGTZ
-48.9%
$6.26
QBTZ
-48.2%
$7.84
DBGI
-42.2%
$0.59
HLP
-29.5%
$0.39
AMSS
-27.9%
$8.15
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:15 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| NVDA |
491,485 |
337,553 |
153,932 |
0.46
|
$230C 65,458 vol |
| NVDA: Aggressive call buying, specifically $230C, suggests bullish bet on continued upside. |
| SPY |
446,000 |
224,845 |
221,155 |
0.98
|
$738C 30,262 vol |
| SPY: Mixed flow, near-neutral P/C ratio of 0.98, no clear directional signal. |
| QQQ |
305,563 |
138,331 |
167,232 |
1.21
|
$710C 22,620 vol |
| QQQ: Puts slightly outpacing calls, P/C=1.21, suggests some investors hedging or positioning for pullback. |
| TSLA |
257,191 |
188,547 |
68,644 |
0.36
|
$430C 30,212 vol |
| TSLA: Heavy call buying, $430C leading the way, indicates bullish bet on TSLA's short-term prospects. |
| AMD |
39,654 |
25,195 |
14,459 |
0.57
|
$460C 6,590 vol |
| AMD: Call-heavy flow, P/C=0.57, with $460C in focus, implies bullish positioning ahead of potential catalysts. |
|
|
ARM
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$300B
· Earnings May 06
|
| $300C |
28 DTE |
+79.2% ann. |
+9.0% OTM |
Δ 0.07 |
POP 93% |
|
| Arm Holdings stock surged to an all-time high due to a surge, with specific reasons for the increase not detailed in provided headlines. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$7B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $111C |
22 DTE |
+219.0% ann. |
+7.0% OTM |
Δ 0.17 |
POP 83% |
|
| AXTI stock is down 14% today, according to data from Quiver Quantitative. |
|
AAOI
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$14B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $188C |
42 DTE |
+111.5% ann. |
+14.0% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics' stock is reacting to upcoming Q1 earnings, with investors weighing whether to buy ahead of the report or wait for results. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $739 · QQQ $710 · VIX 17.5 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 17.5 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$730P |
56d |
1 |
$13.43 |
$1,343 |
8.8% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$750P |
56d |
1 |
$21.49 |
$2,149 |
14.0% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$725P |
56d |
2 |
$12.01 |
$2,402 |
15.7% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $750P 56d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$702 |
112% |
$98,356 |
| Correction -10% |
$665 |
99% |
$97,803 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$629 |
95% |
$97,250 |
| Crash -20% |
$592 |
93% |
$96,697 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$705P |
56d |
1 |
$20.33 |
$2,033 |
13.3% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$724P |
56d |
1 |
$29.21 |
$2,921 |
19.0% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$695P |
56d |
2 |
$16.95 |
$3,390 |
22.1% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $724P 56d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$675 |
116% |
$97,748 |
| Correction -10% |
$639 |
100% |
$97,049 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$604 |
94% |
$96,351 |
| Crash -20% |
$568 |
92% |
$95,653 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:15 ET
|
|
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 21 (MTD) · Hit rate: 27/51 · Avg return: +1.6% · YTD: +24.8%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+67.8% |
Ann. |
86.1% |
Sharpe |
3.79 |
Max DD |
-5.2% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+66.2% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$167,798 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months |
| Total |
7,754% |
Ann. |
24.5% |
Sharpe |
1.41 |
Max DD |
-40.1% |
| Win% |
67% |
Alpha |
+14.1% |
SPY |
616% |
$100K → |
$7,854,346 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| AVGO |
6.4% |
-0.1% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+7.1% |
| FBLA |
5.6% |
-0.2% |
| L |
5.5% |
-3.0% |
| GOOGL |
5.4% |
-0.2% |
| WMT |
5.4% |
-7.3% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
+8.8% |
| GEV |
4.5% |
-2.7% |
| SNDK |
4.1% |
+23.2% |
| TRP |
3.3% |
+6.4% |
| PH |
2.9% |
-3.5% |
| WTS |
2.9% |
+1.7% |
| AMG |
2.9% |
+3.5% |
| BIIB |
2.9% |
+0.6% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
-8.8% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+1.7% |
| MU |
2.1% |
+38.9% |
| FMBH |
1.8% |
-0.5% |
| GVA |
1.8% |
-7.1% |
| HSIC |
1.7% |
-0.8% |
| PCAR |
1.5% |
-5.7% |
| GKOS |
1.4% |
-1.8% |
| CTRE |
1.3% |
+4.1% |
| HLT |
1.3% |
+0.3% |
| NMIH |
1.2% |
+0.8% |
| AMZN |
1.2% |
-1.8% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| RY |
1.2% |
+4.3% |
| PRM |
1.2% |
+8.6% |
| IHG |
1.1% |
+7.3% |
| SBUX |
1.1% |
-1.1% |
| LAR |
1.1% |
-7.4% |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
+0.9% |
| INBX |
1.1% |
-16.6% |
| CMPR |
1.1% |
+2.7% |
| PL |
1.1% |
+14.6% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+8.0% |
| LWLG |
0.9% |
-23.4% |
| AAOI |
0.9% |
-2.1% |
| PSA |
0.8% |
-0.5% |
| EPD |
0.6% |
+4.3% |
| AHR |
0.5% |
+1.0% |
| MO |
0.4% |
-0.7% |
| MDLZ |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
| PEP |
0.2% |
-6.0% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+13.0% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
+0.9% |
| META |
0.2% |
-1.7% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+6.7% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+7.8% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+7.3% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+1.0% |
|
|
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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