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Markets · Options · Signal
May 20, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 11:05 ET
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S&P 500
738.76
+0.69%
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Nasdaq
709.33
+1.11%
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Dow
496.99
+0.61%
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Russell 2k
278.27
+1.93%
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VIX
17.80
-1.44%
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20Y Bond
83.62
+0.72%
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Gold
415.85
+1.06%
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Silver
68.75
+2.77%
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Oil
146.85
-3.99%
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USD
27.73
-0.23%
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CNN Fear & Greed
62
Greed
wk -2 · mo -8
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 728.19 |
Res: 749.53 |
RSI: 65.5 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 688.91 |
Res: 722.03 |
RSI: 68.9 |
|
Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Wed May 20 – Thu May 21 · as of 11:05 ET |
| Wed May 20 |
| 02:00 |
GB |
CPI (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.0%, prev. 3.3% |
| 05:00 |
EU |
CPI (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.0%, prev. 2.6% |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — est. -2.500M, prev. -4.306M |
| 14:00 |
US |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
| Thu May 21 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 210K, prev. 211K |
| 08:30 |
US |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) — est. 17.6, prev. 26.7 |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) — est. 53.8, prev. 54.5 |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Services PMI (May) — est. 51.1, prev. 51.0 |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.13% |
+6bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.67% |
+6bps |
| Spread |
+54bps |
Normal |
| DXY |
99.08 |
-0.22% |
| VIX/3M |
0.85 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
7.08% |
+0.04% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2705
$112.53 · $416.00
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z -1.33 · Watch · ρ 85%
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| BTC |
$77,423 |
+0.9% |
| ETH |
$2,133 |
+1.1% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0276 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
11:08 ET |
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Technology
+1.67%
XLK
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Cons. Discr.
+1.59%
XLY
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Industrials
+0.95%
XLI
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Materials
+0.94%
XLB
|
Financials
+0.70%
XLF
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Real Estate
+0.62%
XLRE
|
|
Utilities
+0.51%
XLU
|
Health Care
-0.35%
XLV
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Communication
-0.42%
XLC
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Cons. Staples
-0.55%
XLP
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Energy
-1.09%
XLE
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In today's Bull regime, tech and consumer discretionary sectors lead, while defensives like staples and communication lag, signaling a clear risk-on rotation.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 1 (prev. close)
“The market has transitioned into a BULL regime after 1 day in RECOVERY, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.69% and 1.11% respectively, as Nvidia's earnings report looms. Worth watching is the divergence between the oil price decline and the market's risk-on tone, with gold steady amid rate-hike bets and geopolitical tensions.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 11:07 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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NVDA
mixed
50
“Nvda will release its Q1 report today. What do you boys expect”
WSB 595 pts · 5/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
16
“I love 0 dte”
WSB 610 pts · 4/5 subs
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PLTR
mixed
11
“The market will literally never go down again”
WSB 8266 pts · 4/5 subs
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TOPS
bullish
11
“30-year Treasury yield tops 5.18%, highest since before the financial crisis”
SM 866 pts · 2/5 subs
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SOFI
bullish
10
“First year in stock market”
WSB 1167 pts · 4/5 subs
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META
mixed
9
“A Casual Conspiracy Theory on Semi-Conductor Industry Movement This Week”
WSB 230 pts · 5/5 subs
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INTC
mixed
8
“A Casual Conspiracy Theory on Semi-Conductor Industry Movement This Week”
WSB 230 pts · 4/5 subs
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MU
mixed
7
“$CC - The next bottle neck?”
STK 25 pts · 5/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
4017 Form 4s filed · 11:05 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-15 to 2026-05-20
Executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with a cluster of insider selling in tech and growth stocks, led by CEOs and strategists unloading millions.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
AMD |
Su Lisa T Chair, President & CEO |
$55.7M |
| SELL |
TDG |
Howley W Nicholas Insider |
$12.0M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$8.5M |
| SELL |
OUST |
Frichtl Mark Chief Technology Officer |
$6.0M |
| SELL |
FRPT |
Cyr William B. Chief Executive Officer |
$4.6M |
| SELL |
TDG |
Reiss Joel Co-Chief Operating Officer |
$4.5M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 11:08 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.3% |
6.2d |
-2.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
27.6% |
1.4d |
-11.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
17.9% |
2.6d |
-3.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
17.5% |
3.1d |
+19.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GVA |
15.6% |
7.9d |
+8.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
14.5% |
8.6d |
-5.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| RIVN |
14.1% |
6.0d |
-0.4% |
MODERATE
|
| CVNA |
13.1% |
4.9d |
-10.5% |
MODERATE
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8158 scanned · 92 SEC-confirmed· 3 red · 59 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| AMCX |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.58 |
47% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| BTSG |
0.39 |
0.85 |
0.47 |
87% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| FTK |
0.59 |
0.65 |
0.46 |
54% |
GRINDADDELEV |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| NGNE |
0.43 |
0.65 |
0.41 |
81% |
GRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| KNX |
0.07 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
25% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| AUR |
0.23 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
94% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| CBIO |
0.53 |
0.10 |
0.40 |
79% |
ELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| SWKS |
0.26 |
0.65 |
0.40 |
52% |
IGNGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| BEN |
0.33 |
0.65 |
0.37 |
66% |
GRINDADDELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
+ 52 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 11:05 ET |
Stocks Climb Before Nvidia’s Earnings as Oil Falls: Markets Wrap
BBG 16h ago
With Nvidia's earnings report looming, the market seems cautiously optimistic, with stocks climbing and oil prices falling. A positive earnings surprise could lead to a surge in tech stocks, while a disappointment could cause a sell-off. Keep an eye on the earnings report and guidance for signs of weakness or strength. The Fed's Beige Book and US durable goods orders could also impact market sentiment.
| BBG |
USD Near-Term Driven by Fed, Hormuz Risks, ANZ’s Zaman Says
The USD's near-term trajectory appears to be driven by Fed policy and geopolitical risks in Hormuz. If the Fed stays hawkish and there's no escalation in Hormuz, the USD may strengthen, potentially adjusting commodity prices. Conversely, a dovish Fed or increased tensions in Hormuz could weaken the USD, impacting risk assets. Monitor US GDP, the FOMC meeting, and developments in Hormuz.
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5h ago |
| BBG |
Gold Steadies as Iran War Impasse Keeps Rate-Hike Bets High
Gold prices are steady amid the Iran war impasse, with rate-hike bets remaining high. If tensions persist, gold prices may firm up on safe-haven demand, while a de-escalation could lead to a decline in gold prices and increased risk appetite. Keep an eye on US inflation data, the FOMC meeting, and developments in Iran.
|
16h ago |
| FT |
Private equity’s new escape hatch keeps unsold companies in limbo
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11h ago |
| BBG |
Cash Crunch Leaves Braskem’s Mexico Unit Missing Out on Oil Boom
Braskem's Mexico unit is missing out on the oil boom due to a cash crunch, putting its stock price under pressure. If oil prices remain high, Braskem's financial situation may worsen, while a decline in oil prices could improve its situation. Monitor oil price movements and Braskem's financial updates for signs of improvement or deterioration.
|
1h ago |
| BBG |
Nvidia Earnings Are Set to Make or Break the Chip Stock Rally
Nvidia's earnings report is set to significantly impact the chip stock rally, with a beat potentially leading to a surge in chip stocks and a disappointment causing a sell-off. The earnings report and guidance will be crucial in determining the sector's direction. Keep an eye on the report for signs of weakness or strength, which could have broader implications for tech stocks.
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5h ago |
| BBG |
30-Year Real Yields Starting to Look Interesting, RBC Says
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7h ago |
| BBG |
Can Venezuela Rebuild Investor Trust With a Debt Overhaul?
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1h ago |
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 11:05 ET |
| FJ |
BoE Bailey: Mortgage Rates Not Out of Line
BoE Gov. Bailey sees mortgage rate rises in line with market rates
|
14m ago |
| FJ |
China, Russia to Boost Energy Cooperation
China and Russia to cooperate on oil, gas, and coal
|
13m ago |
| FJ |
ECB Rate Hike Likely in June
ECB rate hike expected in June due to adverse inflation outlook
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18m ago |
| FJ |
US Crude Stocks in SPR Fall Record
EIA reports record fall in US crude stocks in SPR
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23m ago |
| FJ |
BoE Breeden: Financial Stability Risks Elevated
BoE's Breeden sees material and elevated financial stability risks
|
10m ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 39 flashes scanned
|
| Composite 12 |
1M +3.7% |
3M -8.5% |
1Y +3.0% |
UP |
American Airlines Group (AAL) faces opposition from a major US airline group over a Trump administration proposal requiring small airports to use private security. Despite this, US consumers' air travel intentions for leisure purposes remained steady in March year over year, according to a UBS survey. Rising bond yields, however, pressured the stock, which closed down alongside major indices.
|
| Composite 30 |
1M -1.8% |
3M -5.3% |
1Y +128.6% |
FLAT |
SLV has a composite score of 30/100 with a flat trend, and recent returns are -1.8% over 1 month and -5.3% over 3 months. The ETF has seen a 20.1x minute spike in insider activity with an insider score of 88. The market regime is characterized as CRISIS according to HMM.
|
| Composite -11 |
1M -18.4% |
3M -24.6% |
1Y -9.8% |
DOWN |
JetBlue (JBLU) and United Airlines (UAL) have launched a reciprocal loyalty partnership, offering priority services and more earn-and-redeem options via Blue Sky. This development comes as the industry faces opposition to a Trump administration proposal requiring small airports to use private security. JBLU's composite score is -11/100, with a 1-year return of -9.8%, and an analyst target price of $6.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-05-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
|
2026-05-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 20 |
LCLN
Lincoln International, Inc.
|
— |
$484M |
| May 20 |
AMSS
AMASS BRANDS
|
— |
— |
| May 20 |
APURU
Aperture AC
|
— |
$104M |
| May 21 |
CNXU
Conexeu Sciences Inc.
|
— |
— |
| May 27 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
| May 27 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
|
Congressional Trades |
4 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Tim Moore |
T |
Purchase |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
| Tim Moore |
IHG |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Tim Moore |
RYCEY |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| William R. Keating |
SPG |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
HCWB
+125.5%
$2.39
MTVA
+71.3%
$3.22
SLXN
+44.6%
$0.39
PETZ
+44.4%
$1.17
EMISR
+39.8%
$0.14
Top Losers
LICN
-65.1%
$0.99
SOPA
-51.8%
$0.08
JYD
-49.0%
$0.96
RUBI
-39.7%
$0.83
YMT
-32.0%
$1.37
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 11:08 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
2,085,312 |
1,250,086 |
835,226 |
0.67
|
$737C 159,131 vol |
| SPY: Bullish call buying, $737C hot, P/C=0.67 suggests directional bet on continued upside. |
| QQQ |
1,251,416 |
641,091 |
610,325 |
0.95
|
$710C 72,084 vol |
| QQQ: Mixed flow, P/C=0.95 near 1, no clear directional signal. |
| TSLA |
687,043 |
487,656 |
199,387 |
0.41
|
$415C 92,429 vol |
| TSLA: Aggressive bullish call buying, $415C hot, P/C=0.41 indicates confidence in stock's upward move. |
| NVDA |
406,961 |
304,775 |
102,186 |
0.34
|
$250C 36,760 vol |
| NVDA: Extreme call buying, $250C hot, P/C=0.34 suggests large bet on near-term upside. |
| AMD |
113,808 |
71,879 |
41,929 |
0.58
|
$450C 6,880 vol |
| AMD: Call-heavy flow, $450C hot, P/C=0.58 implies bullish positioning ahead of potential catalysts. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $739 · QQQ $709 · VIX 17.9 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 17.9 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$730P |
57d |
1 |
$14.09 |
$1,409 |
9.0% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$750P |
57d |
1 |
$22.30 |
$2,230 |
14.3% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$724P |
57d |
2 |
$12.33 |
$2,466 |
15.8% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $750P 57d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$702 |
114% |
$98,347 |
| Correction -10% |
$665 |
100% |
$97,791 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$628 |
96% |
$97,234 |
| Crash -20% |
$591 |
94% |
$96,677 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$705P |
57d |
1 |
$21.41 |
$2,141 |
13.7% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$724P |
57d |
1 |
$30.14 |
$3,014 |
19.3% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$695P |
57d |
2 |
$17.79 |
$3,558 |
22.8% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $724P 57d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$674 |
118% |
$97,744 |
| Correction -10% |
$638 |
101% |
$97,041 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$603 |
95% |
$96,338 |
| Crash -20% |
$568 |
92% |
$95,635 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 11:08 ET
|
|
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 20 (MTD) · Hit rate: 29/48 · Avg return: +0.8% · YTD: +25.2%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+81.0% |
Ann. |
103.9% |
Sharpe |
4.25 |
Max DD |
-4.5% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+84.0% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$181,043 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months |
| Total |
8,864% |
Ann. |
25.3% |
Sharpe |
1.43 |
Max DD |
-41.2% |
| Win% |
67% |
Alpha |
+14.9% |
SPY |
616% |
$100K → |
$8,963,660 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| AVGO |
6.4% |
-0.2% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+5.3% |
| FBLA |
5.6% |
+0.2% |
| L |
5.5% |
-2.8% |
| GOOGL |
5.4% |
-0.2% |
| WMT |
5.4% |
+0.6% |
| HBM |
5.1% |
+6.0% |
| GEV |
4.5% |
-3.6% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
+8.4% |
| SNDK |
4.1% |
+17.9% |
| GVA |
3.7% |
-5.1% |
| TRP |
3.4% |
+5.5% |
| ROAD |
2.9% |
-10.8% |
| TRT |
2.9% |
-9.0% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
-8.5% |
| CTRE |
2.5% |
+6.0% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+1.6% |
| PDFS |
2.2% |
-2.1% |
| MU |
2.1% |
+32.1% |
| OII |
1.6% |
+4.5% |
| GKOS |
1.4% |
+2.7% |
| AMZN |
1.2% |
-1.5% |
| RY |
1.2% |
+3.7% |
| PRM |
1.2% |
+11.3% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| IHG |
1.1% |
+7.5% |
| SBUX |
1.1% |
+1.2% |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
+0.6% |
| LAR |
1.1% |
-10.9% |
| HLT |
1.1% |
+1.2% |
| INBX |
1.1% |
-16.7% |
| CMPR |
1.1% |
+4.4% |
| PL |
1.1% |
+13.6% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+9.0% |
| LWLG |
0.9% |
-29.0% |
| AAOI |
0.9% |
-10.2% |
| OSIS |
0.7% |
-26.0% |
| AHR |
0.6% |
+2.4% |
| EPD |
0.6% |
+4.2% |
| MO |
0.5% |
-0.8% |
| GRMN |
0.5% |
-4.1% |
| RRBI |
0.5% |
-1.8% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+5.9% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+6.9% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
+0.3% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+13.1% |
| META |
0.2% |
-0.7% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+1.5% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+5.1% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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