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MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
May 19, 2026 · All times ET
Regime RECOVERY Day 8
Market Snapshot · 10:29 ET
S&P 500
732.51
-0.83%
Nasdaq
696.40
-1.34%
Dow
495.73
-0.26%
Russell 2k
271.46
-1.63%
VIX
18.07
+1.40%
20Y Bond
82.81
-0.90%
Gold
412.33
-1.46%
Silver
67.22
-3.88%
Oil
151.01
+1.15%
USD
27.80
+0.39%
CNN Fear & Greed
60 Greed
wk -5 · mo -9
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bullish Sup: 726.72 Res: 749.53 RSI: 60.9
QQQ Trend: Bullish Sup: 685.94 Res: 722.03 RSI: 62.4
Econ Calendar
8 high-impact · Wed May 20 – Thu May 21 · as of 10:29 ET
Wed May 20
02:00 GB CPI (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.0%, prev. 3.3%
05:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.0%, prev. 2.6%
10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories — prev. -4.306M
14:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu May 21
08:30 US Initial Jobless Claims — est. 210K, prev. 211K
08:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) — est. 17.9, prev. 26.7
09:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) — est. 53.6, prev. 54.5
09:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (May) — est. 51.1, prev. 51.0
Macro Snapshot
10:33 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 4.07% -2bps
10Y Yield 4.61% +2bps
Spread +54bps Steepening
DXY 99.34 +0.38%
VIX/3M 0.85 Contango
HY OAS 7.04% +0.13%
BZ–WTI 0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
GDXJ–GLD 0.2672
$110.17 · $412.36
z -1.56 · Long spread · ρ 84%
BTC $76,380 -0.7%
ETH $2,105 -1.1%
ETH/BTC 0.0276
Sector Rotation · Today
10:33 ET
Health Care
+1.08%
XLV
Cons. Staples
+0.74%
XLP
Energy
+0.58%
XLE
Real Estate
+0.23%
XLRE
Utilities
-0.11%
XLU
Financials
-0.14%
XLF
Communication
-0.17%
XLC
Industrials
-1.29%
XLI
Cons. Discr.
-1.51%
XLY
Technology
-1.61%
XLK
Materials
-2.35%
XLB
In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a defensive rotation with Health Care and Cons. Staples outperforming, while cyclicals like Tech and Materials lag.
Regime Timeline
HMM Regime Detection — SPY 90-day timeline
From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 8 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a Recovery regime for the 8th day, with the S&P 500 down 0.83% and Nasdaq down 1.34% on the previous close, as bond yields surge with the US 30-Year Yield hitting its highest level since 2007. Worth watching is the divergence between the Dow's relatively muted 0.26% decline and the Russell 2k's 1.63% drop, as sector rotation appears to favor defensive plays amid inflation angst.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — White House
Trump’s economy is worse than it looks — key economic indicator sinks to pandemic-era levels
MSN 26m ago
Trump's Economy Is Worse Than It Looks - Key Economic Indicator Sinks to Pandemic-Era Levels
24/ 48m ago
President Trump's Economy Is Failing the American People
REA 6h ago
Trump's Iran War Risks 'Unmoored' Inflation And 'Weaker Economy,' Warns Moody's Chief Economist As Ed Yar
BEN 8h ago
$GLD$TIP$USO$XLE
Dutch minister warns EU-U.S. trade deal must hold as Trump tariff deadline looms
NL 20h ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:32 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
AMD mixed 42
“What $10,000 invested in these IPO’s is worth today…”
WSB 2676 pts · 4/5 subs
NVDA mixed 35
“NVDA Call Holders after earnings tomorrow”
WSB 1174 pts · 5/5 subs
MSFT bullish 23
“Rste This Managed Portfolio”
STK 0 pts · 4/5 subs
MU mixed 16
“$CC - The next bottle neck?”
STK 24 pts · 5/5 subs
INTC mixed 16
“I give up - 100k down”
WSB 550 pts · 5/5 subs
TSM mixed 12
“BNTX is about to go full send at ASCO and nobody’s talking about it 🚀🧬”
WSB 27 pts · 3/5 subs
VTI mixed 12
“feels crazy to buy stocks that are over 4x higher than when i first invested, no…”
STK 703 pts · 3/5 subs
EBAY bullish 10
“What $10,000 invested in these IPO’s is worth today…”
WSB 2676 pts · 3/5 subs
Insider Wire
3374 Form 4s filed · 10:29 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-14 to 2026-05-19
Executives are dumping ahead of earnings, with CEOs and senior leaders unloading massive stakes in tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor and cybersecurity sectors.
Ticker Insider Value
SELL AMD Su Lisa T Chair, President & CEO $55.7M
SELL CRWV Intrator Michael N CEO and President $32.5M
SELL INOD ABUHOFF JACK CEO $22.8M
SELL STX Teh Ban Seng EVP & Chief Commercial Officer $12.7M
SELL CRWV Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer $8.5M
SELL OUST Frichtl Mark Chief Technology Officer $6.0M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 10:33 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
UPST 32.3% 6.2d -2.4% HIGH
BYND 27.6% 1.4d -11.1% ELEVATED
SMCI 17.9% 2.6d -3.1% ELEVATED
AMC 17.5% 3.1d +19.5% ELEVATED
GVA 15.6% 7.9d +8.6% ELEVATED
GME 14.5% 8.6d -5.5% ELEVATED
RIVN 14.1% 6.0d -0.4% MODERATE
CVNA 13.1% 4.9d -10.5% MODERATE
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor
8110 scanned · 84 SEC-confirmed· 4 red · 49 yellow
Do-Not-Short · 1 name · structural lock ≥ 60%
Float is structurally compromised; shorting these carries blow-up tail risk even when the move looks exhausted.
PSNY DO-NOT-SHORT
locked=60% · SI/real-float=100.0%
structural score drops below 0.40 (holder 13G/A filings lighten)
GRINDCOVERELEV
Ticker Struct Ignit Final Hldrs Flags Bucket
SGRY 0.46 0.85 0.65 60% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
AMCX 0.32 0.85 0.58 47% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
PSNY 0.60 0.85 0.54 60% GRINDCOVERELEV RED
BTSG 0.39 0.85 0.22 87% BLOWGRINDCOVERELEV RED
LCID 0.55 0.10 0.55 76% PREELEVATM* YELLOW
SWKS 0.26 0.65 0.40 52% IGNGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
MNPR 0.39 0.65 0.39 68% GRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
FORR 0.27 0.65 0.34 56% GRINDADDELEVILLIQ YELLOW
SLG 0.21 0.65 0.32 44% GRINDADDELEV YELLOW
TRVI 0.20 0.65 0.32 48% GRINDADDELEVATMReadOut YELLOW
+ 43 more yellow names not shown
Market Headlines
8 sources · 10:29 ET
Nasdaq 100 Falls on Chipmaker Rout as Yields Rise: Markets Wrap
BBG 16h ago
The recent fall in the Nasdaq 100, led by chipmakers, suggests that rising yields are putting pressure on growth stocks. If yields continue to climb, we may see a sector rotation out of tech and into value stocks or bonds. Keep an eye on upcoming tech earnings reports and Fed speeches for potential market catalysts. A sustained increase in yields could lead to economic growth concerns.
BBG US 30-Year Yield Hits Highest Since 2007 on Inflation Angst
With the 30-year US yield hitting its highest level since 2007, investors are increasingly worried about the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy. If inflation continues to rise, we may see further increases in yields, which could put pressure on equities. Monitor inflation reports and central bank meetings for clues on the future direction of interest rates. A significant stock market decline could be on the horizon if yields remain elevated.
1h ago
BBG AllianzGI’s Zeng on US Rates & Bond Yields (Correct)
Expert opinions on US rates and bond yields suggest that upward pressure on rates is expected due to inflation concerns. While this doesn't directly impact markets, it may influence investor positioning and strategies. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases and central bank meetings for potential rate changes. This could lead to adjustments in portfolios towards higher-yielding assets or hedging against potential rate increases.
11h ago
BBG Bond Yields Near Two-Decade High Open Rift Among Investors
The surge in bond yields to near two-decade highs is causing a rift among investors, with some expecting a significant economic slowdown and others seeing a continued growth trajectory. This division could lead to market volatility, with potential branches including higher yields and economic slowdown or lower yields and relief rally. Monitor economic data releases and market positioning indicators for clues on the future direction of yields.
10h ago
FJ US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Expect European partners to support Iran sanctions by blocking Iran's financiers, shuttering its bank branches, and unmasking its shell companies
The US Treasury Secretary's comments on Iran sanctions have increased geopolitical tensions, which could lead to higher oil prices and inflation. If sanctions lead to oil supply disruptions, we may see a significant price spike and global economic impact. Keep an eye on OPEC meetings, international responses to sanctions, and oil inventory levels for potential market catalysts. A sustained increase in oil prices could lead to rate hikes and a market sell-off.
1h ago
FJ US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Countries in Middle East and Asia also need to root out Iran's shadow banking networks.
The call for global efforts to combat Iran's financial networks has similar implications to the sanctions, with potential for higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions. If global efforts succeed in reducing Iran's economic and financial influence, we may see reduced economic and geopolitical risk. Monitor concrete actions from countries or international bodies and oil market reactions for clues on the future direction of this story. A significant disruption in oil supplies could have far-reaching economic implications.
1h ago
CNBC 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.18%, reaching the highest level in nearly 19 years 1m ago
BBG Distressed-Debt Deals Often End in ‘Hard Default,’ Moody’s Warns 22m ago
Financial Wire
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:29 ET
FJ US Treasury to Review Sanctions List
Systematic desks monitor US sanctions on Iran for FX and crude implications
1h ago
FJ ECB's Nagel Hints at June Rate Move
Macro traders watch for potential ECB rate changes in June
1h ago
FJ NATO to Consider Hormuz Deployment
Geopolitical tensions rise with potential NATO deployment to Hormuz
24m ago
FJ US Pending Home Sales Beat Expectations
Strong US housing data may influence Fed rate decisions
29m ago
FJ Russia Cuts Gas Export Estimates to China
Crude and energy markets watch for impact on Russian gas exports
20m ago
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
Research Digest
10:32 ET
INTC $103.81 -4.0% Neutral
Composite 66 1M +64.6% 3M +137.9% 1Y +399.4% FLAT
Target $85
INTC not mentioned in provided headlines; unrelated stocks discussed.
YHO White-hot semiconductor stocks like Sandisk and Micron are now in meltdown mode
YAH Nvidia Q1 earnings: The 3 things this analyst will be watching
GUR Nvidia Outlook to Test AI Chip Dominance
ONDS $9.10 -6.2% Bullish
Composite 26 1M -9.6% 3M -12.4% 1Y +9.4% DOWN
Target $17
Ondas has pulled forward its OAS adjusted EBITDA profitability target to Q1 2027, but rising costs and near-term losses raise questions on execution, with Q1 2026 operating loss at $42.7 million and operating cash burn at $51.3 million. The acquisition of Omnisys adds AI-powered defense planning and coordination tools to Ondas' autonomous systems portfolio. Can the company deliver on its profitability target amidst high spending and cash burn?
ZAC Ondas Pulls Forward OAS EBITDA Profitability Target: Can it Deliver?
GUR Ondas Acquires Omnisys, Adding 25-Year-Proven AI Battlefield Software
TRE How Ondas Is Growing Far Faster Than It Burns Cash
NU $12.36 +0.6% Bearish
Composite -22 1M -18.6% 3M -28.4% 1Y -5.8% DOWN
Target $21
Nu Holdings' Q1 results eased profitability concerns with a record $5B revenue quarter, but shares fell 5.7% after missing earnings estimates. Rising credit costs and margin pressure are concerns. The market may be mispricing growth, with an analyst target of $21.
ELE TikTok expands financial ambitions through Brazil banking push and UK payments play
MOT Stock Market Today, May 18: Nu Holdings Rises After Record Q1 Results Ease Profitability Concerns
ZAC NU Stock Falls 5.7% Since Missing Q1 Earnings, Revenues In Line
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Analyst Moves
10:33 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
AVGO Buy 53 / 4 / 0 2026-05-01
NVDA Buy 66 / 4 / 1 2026-05-01
WMT Buy 44 / 4 / 0 2026-05-01
AMZN Buy 72 / 6 / 0 2026-05-01
MSFT Buy 60 / 6 / 0 2026-05-01
GOOGL Buy 62 / 8 / 0 2026-05-01
META Buy 64 / 9 / 0 2026-05-01
AAPL Buy 39 / 13 / 2 2026-05-01
IPO Calendar
10:33 ET
Date Company Range Size
May 19 APURU Aperture AC — $104M
May 20 LCLN Lincoln International, Inc. — $484M
May 21 CNXU Conexeu Sciences Inc. — —
May 27 RIKU RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd — $34M
May 27 BWGC BW Industrial Holdings Inc. — $21M
Congressional Trades
21 disclosures · 14d
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
Member Ticker Type Amount
Brian Babin IAG Sale $1,001 - $15,000
Brian Babin RRC Sale $1,001 - $15,000
William R. Keating VMW Purchase $1,001 - $15,000
Brian Babin FIP Sale $1,001 - $15,000
Brian Babin HII Sale $15,001 - $50,000
Brian Babin ET Sale $1,001 - $15,000
Brian Babin FTAI Sale $50,001 - $100,000
Brian Babin ENB Sale $1,001 - $15,000
Market Movers
FMP real-time
Top Gainers
GIPR +70.0% $0.41 CODX +53.6% $2.10 MTVA +49.1% $1.66 VRAX +36.8% $0.32 NXXT +36.8% $0.56
Top Losers
ONCO -45.6% $0.17 CMND -37.5% $0.24 WOK -33.4% $0.25 DXF -27.1% $0.83 TRNR -26.4% $0.78
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 10:33 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 1,231,259 562,114 669,145
1.19
$735C 98,635 vol
SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C ratio of 1.19 suggests cautious stance, with focus on $735C.
QQQ 793,928 357,787 436,141
1.22
$703C 39,453 vol
QQQ: Aggressive call buying at $703C, but high P/C ratio of 1.22 indicates hedging activity.
TSLA 275,955 119,606 156,349
1.31
$405C 16,966 vol
TSLA: Call buying at $405C, P/C ratio of 1.31 implies bullish bets with some hedging.
NVDA 186,478 124,259 62,219
0.50
$225C 13,759 vol
NVDA: Call-heavy flow, low P/C ratio of 0.50 suggests bullish positioning, driven by $225C buying.
AMD 46,971 24,279 22,692
0.93
$420C 1,551 vol
AMD: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with neutral P/C ratio of 0.93 and low-volume $420C calls.
Income Plays
10:32 ET
ARM CC Best Quality High · max 2% $223B · Earnings Jul 29
$230C 34 DTE +67.4% ann. +8.6% OTM Δ 0.10 POP 90%
One analyst predicts Arm's stock could rise another 45% as the 'renaissance of CPUs' takes hold, according to MarketWatch.
PL CC Craziest Return Low · max 1% $14B · Earnings Jun 04
$43C 21 DTE +223.6% ann. +4.4% OTM Δ 0.19 POP 81%
Planet Labs (PL) has surged 10x in the past year, with recent developments including a new Czech agriculture deal and Pelican satellite milestones.
AXTI CC Safest High · max 2% $7B · Earnings Jul 30
$124C 42 DTE +134.9% ann. +13.3% OTM Δ 0.05 POP 95%
AXTI stock is experiencing significant movement, with a 14% decline today, as investors react to market trends and AI data center demand.
Portfolio Hedge
SPY $733 · QQQ $697 · VIX 18.0
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.0 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$725P 58d 1 $14.05 $1,405 8.8%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$745P 58d 1 $21.75 $2,175 13.7%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$715P 58d 2 $11.12 $2,224 14.0%
Scenario: 1× SPY $745P 58d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario SPY Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $696 115% $98,475
Correction -10% $659 101% $97,888
Bear leg -15% $623 96% $97,301
Crash -20% $586 93% $96,715
QQQ Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$690P 58d 1 $18.57 $1,857 11.7%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$710P 58d 1 $27.09 $2,709 17.0%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$680P 58d 2 $15.71 $3,142 19.8%
Scenario: 1× QQQ $710P 58d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario QQQ Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $662 112% $97,812
Correction -10% $627 97% $97,048
Bear leg -15% $593 92% $96,284
Crash -20% $558 90% $95,519
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:33 ET
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 19 (MTD) · Hit rate: 28/48 · Avg return: -0.8% · YTD: +22.9%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months
Return +81.0% Ann. 103.9% Sharpe 4.25 Max DD -4.5%
Win% 90% Alpha +84.0% SPY +16.3% $100K → $181,043
Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months
Total 8,921% Ann. 25.4% Sharpe 1.43 Max DD -41.2%
Win% 67% Alpha +15.0% SPY 616% $100K → $9,021,219
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
AVGO 6.4% -3.1%
KLAC 6.1% -1.1%
FBLA 5.6% +0.1%
L 5.5% -3.0%
GOOGL 5.4% +0.9%
WMT 5.4% +1.9%
HBM 5.1% +2.2%
GEV 4.5% -6.8%
BWET 4.5% +9.3%
SNDK 4.1% +9.5%
GVA 3.7% -4.8%
TRP 3.4% +3.9%
ROAD 2.9% -13.1%
TRT 2.9% +1.0%
HWKN 2.6% -12.6%
CTRE 2.5% +4.8%
QLTY 2.2% +1.2%
PDFS 2.2% -7.1%
MU 2.1% +22.1%
OII 1.6% +3.1%
GKOS 1.4% +0.3%
AMZN 1.2% -4.1%
RY 1.2% +2.3%
PRM 1.2% +7.5%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
IHG 1.1% +5.4%
SBUX 1.1% +0.8%
VFLO 1.1% +0.3%
LAR 1.1% -14.9%
HLT 1.1% -0.2%
INBX 1.1% -18.5%
CMPR 1.1% +10.4%
PL 1.1% +4.0%
HWM 1.0% +5.4%
LWLG 0.9% -33.5%
AAOI 0.9% -11.3%
OSIS 0.7% -25.7%
AHR 0.6% -0.4%
EPD 0.6% +4.4%
MO 0.5% -0.9%
GRMN 0.5% -6.0%
RRBI 0.5% -1.9%
LLY 0.2% +4.7%
AAPL 0.2% +6.1%
MSFT 0.2% +2.6%
NVDA 0.2% +10.3%
META 0.2% -0.1%
BRK.B 0.2% +3.0%
TSLA 0.2% +1.3%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
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