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Markets · Options · Signal
May 18, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:07 ET
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S&P 500
739.94
+0.10%
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Nasdaq
708.79
-0.02%
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Dow
496.37
+0.20%
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Russell 2k
277.77
+0.06%
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VIX
18.51
+0.43%
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20Y Bond
83.73
+0.08%
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Gold
419.02
+0.41%
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Silver
69.95
+1.33%
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Oil
146.94
-0.87%
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USD
27.71
-0.20%
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CNN Fear & Greed
63
Greed
wk -2 · mo -6
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 725.36 |
Res: 749.53 |
RSI: 68.4 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 683.42 |
Res: 722.03 |
RSI: 70.8 |
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Econ Calendar |
4 high-impact · Wed May 20 – Wed May 20 · as of 10:07 ET |
| Wed May 20 |
| 02:00 |
GB |
CPI (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.0%, prev. 3.3% |
| 05:00 |
EU |
CPI (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.0%, prev. 3.0% |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — prev. -4.306M |
| 14:00 |
US |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.09% |
+9bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.59% |
+12bps |
| Spread |
+50bps |
Steepening |
| DXY |
98.99 |
-0.26% |
| VIX/3M |
0.87 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
7.04% |
+0.13% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
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z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2797
$117.32 · $419.43
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z -0.63 · Neutral · ρ 85%
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| BTC |
$76,766 |
-0.8% |
| ETH |
$2,127 |
-0.1% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0277 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
10:10 ET |
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Communication
+1.24%
XLC
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Financials
+1.08%
XLF
|
Cons. Staples
+0.99%
XLP
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Cons. Discr.
+0.85%
XLY
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Real Estate
+0.84%
XLRE
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Materials
+0.37%
XLB
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Health Care
+0.06%
XLV
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Utilities
-0.03%
XLU
|
Energy
-0.24%
XLE
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|
Technology
-0.50%
XLK
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Industrials
-0.53%
XLI
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In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a defensive tilt within the S&P 500 as Cons. Staples outperforms, while Financials and Communication sectors also lead.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 7 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 7 days, with the S&P 500 up 0.10% and 10-year Treasury yield touching its highest in a year, as bonds continue to sell off on inflation fears. Worth watching is the divergence between the ongoing bond sell-off and the UK's plan to relax key banking rules, which may signal a mismatch between market expectations and regulatory realities.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:09 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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AMD
mixed
59
“What $10,000 invested in these IPO’s is worth today…”
WSB 1492 pts · 4/5 subs
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MU
mixed
32
“Samsung -8.6% as 50k workers prepare 18-day strike over 15% profit share demand,…”
WSB 3914 pts · 5/5 subs
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NVDA
mixed
26
“Leopold Aschenbrenner big AI Short 🐻”
WSB 0 pts · 5/5 subs
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BRO
mixed
26
“The market will turn red”
WSB 5609 pts · 5/5 subs
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MSFT
bullish
25
“Everyone thinks $GOOGL is over valued. Does it mean it’s still under valued?”
STK 0 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
bullish
24
“Those who will invest on SpaceX IPO, will you buy Day 1? or wait? Why?”
WSB 669 pts · 5/5 subs
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RKLB
mixed
19
“RKLB Long Position and Discussion”
WSB 239 pts · 4/5 subs
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ARM
mixed
14
“Those who will invest on SpaceX IPO, will you buy Day 1? or wait? Why?”
WSB 669 pts · 3/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
2854 Form 4s filed · 10:07 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-13 to 2026-05-18
Executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with CEOs and top officers unloading $139M+ across tech and consumer sectors, led by chip and software leaders.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
AMD |
Su Lisa T Chair, President & CEO |
$55.7M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Intrator Michael N CEO and President |
$32.5M |
| SELL |
INOD |
ABUHOFF JACK CEO |
$22.8M |
| SELL |
P |
Colgrove John Chief Visionary Officer |
$17.2M |
| SELL |
OUST |
Frichtl Mark Chief Technology Officer |
$6.0M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$5.7M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:10 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.3% |
6.2d |
-2.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
27.6% |
1.4d |
-11.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
17.9% |
2.6d |
-3.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
17.5% |
3.1d |
+19.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GVA |
15.6% |
7.9d |
+8.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
14.5% |
8.6d |
-5.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| RIVN |
14.1% |
6.0d |
-0.4% |
MODERATE
|
| CVNA |
13.1% |
4.9d |
-10.5% |
MODERATE
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8089 scanned · 76 SEC-confirmed· 5 red · 49 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| AMCX |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.58 |
47% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| FTK |
0.59 |
0.65 |
0.46 |
54% |
GRINDADDELEV |
RED
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| IMVT |
0.31 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
69% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATMNDA |
RED
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| CBIO |
0.55 |
0.65 |
0.33 |
84% |
COOLGRINDADDELEVATM* |
RED
|
| BTSG |
0.39 |
0.85 |
0.22 |
87% |
BLOWGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| DRUG |
0.26 |
0.85 |
0.42 |
79% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| HOG |
0.09 |
0.85 |
0.41 |
29% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| VRCA |
0.42 |
0.65 |
0.40 |
65% |
GRINDADDELEVATMILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| DTM |
0.05 |
0.85 |
0.39 |
21% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEVATM* |
YELLOW
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+ 44 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:07 ET |
Bonds extend sell-off on inflation fears
FT 5h ago
The recent bond sell-off on inflation fears may lead to higher yields, which could negatively impact stocks and strengthen the dollar. Investors should consider diversifying across asset classes to mitigate potential risks. If central banks signal accommodative policies, we might see a relief rally in stocks.
| FT |
UK plans to relax key banking rules set up after 2008 financial crisis
The UK's plan to relax key banking rules could lead to increased profitability for banks, causing their stocks to rise. However, this also introduces potential risks, such as wider credit spreads or decreased financial stability. Investors should monitor the details of the regulatory changes and reactions from rating agencies.
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49m ago |
| FJ |
ANZ US Pulse: Early Signs of Slower Private Demand - FJElite
Early signs of slower private demand could negatively impact consumer staples and discretionary stocks, leading to a potential decline. Investors may consider defensive positioning or bonds as a safe haven. It's essential to monitor subsequent data releases to confirm or contradict these early signs.
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1h ago |
| BBG |
JPM’s Berro on Why Bonds Feel Different to Past Selloffs
JPM's Berro suggests that the current bond sell-off feels different from past episodes, which may imply a fundamental shift in market conditions. If yields continue to rise, stocks and other assets may reposition accordingly. Investors should keep an eye on economic data releases and central bank communications.
|
2h ago |
| CNBC |
10-year Treasury yield touches highest in a year, Japan's 30-year yield rises to a record
The recent rise in 10-year Treasury yields and Japan's 30-year yield could indicate a steepening of the yield curve, potentially strengthening the dollar and impacting commodities. Investors should consider positioning based on yield curve expectations and monitor inflation data releases.
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26m ago |
| FJ |
Berenberg: Fed Transition and Higher Inflation Keep Focus on Policy Minutes - FJElite
Berenberg's view on the Fed's transition and higher inflation could lead to a stronger dollar and negatively impact stocks and bonds. However, if the Fed downplays inflation risks, we might see a reversal in these trends. Investors should closely watch policy minutes and public statements from Fed officials.
|
1h ago |
| BBG |
Stocks Halt Slide as Oil Declines on US-Iran Hopes: Markets Wrap
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15h ago |
| BBG |
Merck Starts Seven-Part High-Grade Bond Sale to Fund Terns Deal
|
1h ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:07 ET |
| FJ |
Iran Nuclear Talks Stalled
Iran's revised proposal demands a permanent end to war and lifting sanctions.
|
22m ago |
| FJ |
Fed Funds Rate Holds Steady
Effective Fed funds rate remains at 3.63% for second day.
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1h ago |
| FJ |
UK Inflation to Peak Below 4%
IMF staff forecast UK inflation to peak at just below 4% by end-2026.
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3h ago |
| FJ |
Crude Exports and Sanctions
Iran wants US waiver on oil sanctions, Iraq's crude exports at 9.884 million barrels.
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1h ago |
| FJ |
Geopolitical Tensions Rise
Israeli govt. hints at renewal of US strikes in Iran, Russian attack hits Panama-flagged vessel.
|
2h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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INTC
$109.18
+0.4%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 66 |
1M +58.8% |
3M +135.5% |
1Y +404.7% |
FLAT |
Intel (INTC) has more than tripled this year on a turnaround story, but its valuation may be a concern for new investors. The stock's composite score is 66/100 with a flat trend, and analyst target is $81. However, the high valuation and CRISIS HMM regime pose a risk to the stock's performance.
|
|
ONDS
$10.14
-4.5%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 52 |
1M +6.2% |
3M +5.7% |
1Y +11.4% |
UP |
Ondas Holdings (ONDS) has acquired six companies in 2026, transforming itself into a defense-technology platform, with CEO Eric Brock aiming to build a "scaled global operating platform for unmanned and autonomous systems". The company's AI-powered autonomous warfare thesis drove a 13% jump in shares post-earnings. However, with a rich valuation and execution risks, the market may be mispricing the challenges ahead.
|
| Composite -22 |
1M -20.5% |
3M -27.5% |
1Y -7.2% |
DOWN |
Nu Holdings (NU) has seen a sharp share price pullback, down 21% over the past month and 28% over the past 3 months, prompting investors to reassess its fundamentals. The digital banking platform will report Q4 earnings this Thursday after market hours. With a recent insider activity spike and analyst target at $21, the market may be overreacting to recent earnings concerns.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-05-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
|
2026-05-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 19 |
APURU
Aperture AC
|
— |
$104M |
| May 20 |
LCLN
Lincoln International, Inc.
|
— |
$484M |
| May 21 |
CNXU
Conexeu Sciences Inc.
|
— |
— |
| May 27 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
| May 27 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
SBFM
+355.8%
$1.29
GOVX
+189.4%
$3.56
VRAX
+113.6%
$0.33
AIM
+63.2%
$0.41
CISS
+60.3%
$4.92
Top Losers
BTM
-73.4%
$0.78
EDBL
-35.5%
$0.25
SNAL
-32.8%
$0.78
GOSS
-32.4%
$0.23
YYAI
-28.3%
$10.74
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:10 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
394,142 |
163,944 |
230,198 |
1.40
|
$740C 25,644 vol |
| SPY: P/C ratio of 1.40 suggests bearish tilt, but call buying at $740C indicates bullish bets. |
| QQQ |
294,650 |
117,193 |
177,457 |
1.51
|
$715C 18,773 vol |
| QQQ: Elevated P/C ratio of 1.51 and hot $715C call buying imply bullish positioning. |
| NVDA |
202,718 |
123,000 |
79,718 |
0.65
|
$230C 33,533 vol |
| NVDA: Call-heavy flow with P/C of 0.65 and 33,533 $230C contracts suggest bullish bets. |
| TSLA |
152,080 |
83,079 |
69,001 |
0.83
|
$420C 17,674 vol |
| TSLA: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with P/C ratio near 1 and hot $420C call buying. |
| GOOGL |
43,821 |
40,655 |
3,166 |
0.08
|
$400C 13,257 vol |
| GOOGL: Extremely low P/C ratio of 0.08 and heavy $400C call buying indicate aggressive bullish positioning. |
|
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ARM
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$219B
· Earnings Jul 29
|
| $230C |
34 DTE |
+67.4% ann. |
+8.6% OTM |
Δ 0.10 |
POP 90% |
|
| ARM's stock movement is being driven by Intel's decline, as Intel loses ground to AMD and ARM, according to Barron's. |
|
PL
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$15B
· Earnings Jun 04
|
| $43C |
21 DTE |
+223.6% ann. |
+4.4% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| Planet Labs' stock is trading up today amid optimism over government contracts and AI advancements, with a Wedbush analyst predicting a rising stock price. |
|
AXTI
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$8B
· Earnings Jul 30
|
| $124C |
42 DTE |
+134.9% ann. |
+13.3% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| E20 Capital Holdings disclosed ownership of 2.59M shares of AXT Inc., according to a 13G filing reported by Stock Titan. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $740 · QQQ $709 · VIX 18.4 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.4 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$730P |
59d |
1 |
$14.54 |
$1,454 |
9.0% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$750P |
59d |
1 |
$22.75 |
$2,275 |
14.1% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$720P |
59d |
2 |
$11.78 |
$2,356 |
14.6% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $750P 59d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$703 |
110% |
$98,159 |
| Correction -10% |
$666 |
99% |
$97,610 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$629 |
95% |
$97,061 |
| Crash -20% |
$592 |
93% |
$96,511 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$700P |
59d |
1 |
$20.43 |
$2,043 |
12.6% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$725P |
59d |
1 |
$31.41 |
$3,141 |
19.4% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$690P |
59d |
2 |
$17.04 |
$3,408 |
21.1% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $725P 59d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$673 |
121% |
$97,760 |
| Correction -10% |
$638 |
102% |
$97,054 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$603 |
96% |
$96,349 |
| Crash -20% |
$567 |
93% |
$95,644 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:10 ET
|
|
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 18 (MTD) · Hit rate: 31/48 · Avg return: +1.6% · YTD: +26.3%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+81.0% |
Ann. |
103.9% |
Sharpe |
4.25 |
Max DD |
-4.5% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+84.0% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$181,043 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months |
| Total |
8,921% |
Ann. |
25.4% |
Sharpe |
1.43 |
Max DD |
-41.2% |
| Win% |
67% |
Alpha |
+15.0% |
SPY |
616% |
$100K → |
$9,021,219 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| AVGO |
6.4% |
-1.1% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+1.8% |
| FBLA |
5.6% |
+0.1% |
| L |
5.5% |
-3.5% |
| GOOGL |
5.4% |
+5.2% |
| WMT |
5.4% |
+0.8% |
| HBM |
5.1% |
+8.9% |
| GEV |
4.5% |
-6.3% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
+5.6% |
| SNDK |
4.1% |
+11.7% |
| GVA |
3.7% |
-2.9% |
| TRP |
3.4% |
+2.9% |
| ROAD |
2.9% |
-8.0% |
| TRT |
2.9% |
+28.0% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
-5.8% |
| CTRE |
2.5% |
+6.4% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+1.4% |
| PDFS |
2.2% |
-1.6% |
| MU |
2.1% |
+32.2% |
| OII |
1.6% |
+3.5% |
| GKOS |
1.4% |
+5.0% |
| AMZN |
1.2% |
-0.3% |
| RY |
1.2% |
+3.0% |
| PRM |
1.2% |
+10.7% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| IHG |
1.1% |
+5.5% |
| SBUX |
1.1% |
+1.7% |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
+0.5% |
| LAR |
1.1% |
-8.8% |
| HLT |
1.1% |
+0.8% |
| INBX |
1.1% |
-16.8% |
| CMPR |
1.1% |
+4.5% |
| PL |
1.1% |
+15.7% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+8.2% |
| LWLG |
0.9% |
-24.8% |
| AAOI |
0.9% |
-6.8% |
| OSIS |
0.7% |
-26.7% |
| AHR |
0.6% |
-0.4% |
| EPD |
0.6% |
+3.7% |
| MO |
0.5% |
-1.7% |
| GRMN |
0.5% |
-6.3% |
| RRBI |
0.5% |
-2.1% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+2.6% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+6.1% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
+2.0% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+13.7% |
| META |
0.2% |
+0.3% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+2.1% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+6.5% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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