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Markets · Options · Signal
May 15, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:10 ET
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S&P 500
740.01
-1.09%
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Nasdaq
709.05
-1.49%
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Dow
496.13
-0.93%
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Russell 2k
278.73
-2.01%
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VIX
18.76
+8.69%
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20Y Bond
83.75
-1.38%
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Gold
416.38
-2.54%
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Silver
69.00
-8.62%
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Oil
145.76
+1.93%
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USD
27.73
+0.42%
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CNN Fear & Greed
65
Greed
wk -2 · mo +9
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 723.84 |
Res: 749.53 |
RSI: 68.8 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 680.36 |
Res: 722.03 |
RSI: 71.6 |
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|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.00% |
+2bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.47% |
+1bps |
| Spread |
+47bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
99.17 |
+0.29% |
| VIX/3M |
0.86 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.91% |
-0.04% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
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z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2823
$117.53 · $416.36
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z -0.41 · Neutral · ρ 85%
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| BTC |
$79,123 |
-2.4% |
| ETH |
$2,217 |
-2.9% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0280 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
10:13 ET |
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Energy
+1.38%
XLE
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Financials
+0.04%
XLF
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Cons. Staples
-0.14%
XLP
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Communication
-0.42%
XLC
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Health Care
-0.43%
XLV
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Utilities
-0.99%
XLU
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Cons. Discr.
-1.48%
XLY
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Industrials
-1.51%
XLI
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Real Estate
-1.61%
XLRE
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Technology
-1.74%
XLK
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Materials
-2.05%
XLB
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In the RECOVERY regime, sector rotation favors defensive Cons. Staples and cyclical Energy, while Financials holds up, as Tech and REITs lag.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 6 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a Recovery regime for 6 days, with the S&P 500 down 1.09% and Nasdaq down 1.49% from the previous close, as rising oil prices and inflation jitters drive bond yields higher. Worth watching is the divergence between the Russell 2000's 2.01% decline and the Dow's 0.93% drop, as small-cap stocks underperform amid a global bond selloff and metals slump.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:13 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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NVDA
mixed
55
“discovered an old Fidelity account i forgot about”
WSB 11677 pts · 5/5 subs
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MSFT
mixed
23
“VRT: Buying Puts On AI Infrastructure (Jan'27 340/260 Put Debit Spread)”
OPT 100 pts · 5/5 subs
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AMD
mixed
23
“I finally rest and watch the sunrise on a grateful universe”
WSB 12816 pts · 5/5 subs
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MU
mixed
21
“I finally rest and watch the sunrise on a grateful universe”
WSB 12816 pts · 5/5 subs
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QQQ
bullish
20
“I finally rest and watch the sunrise on a grateful universe”
WSB 12816 pts · 5/5 subs
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RKLB
mixed
18
“1.3M to 450k to 1.25M”
WSB 1305 pts · 4/5 subs
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AMZN
bullish
17
“I finally rest and watch the sunrise on a grateful universe”
WSB 12816 pts · 5/5 subs
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AVGO
bearish
15
“I finally rest and watch the sunrise on a grateful universe”
WSB 12816 pts · 3/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
3846 Form 4s filed · 10:11 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-10 to 2026-05-15
Insiders are dumping shares across tech and software sectors, led by major sales in autonomous driving and data center stocks, ahead of earnings, signaling potential sector weakness.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CAR |
Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider |
$1,018.0M |
| SELL |
CAR |
Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider |
$510.9M |
| SELL |
DOCN |
Access Industries Holding… Insider |
$60.8M |
| SELL |
P |
Colgrove John Chief Visionary Officer |
$17.2M |
| SELL |
LITE |
Lillie Brian Insider |
$11.7M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Gajendra Sanjay President and COO |
$9.8M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:14 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.3% |
6.2d |
-2.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
27.6% |
1.4d |
-11.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
17.9% |
2.6d |
-3.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
17.5% |
3.1d |
+19.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GVA |
15.6% |
7.9d |
+8.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
14.5% |
8.6d |
-5.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| RIVN |
14.1% |
6.0d |
-0.4% |
MODERATE
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| CVNA |
13.1% |
4.9d |
-10.5% |
MODERATE
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8089 scanned · 82 SEC-confirmed· 4 red · 56 yellow |
Do-Not-Short · 1 name · structural lock ≥ 60%
Float is structurally compromised; shorting these carries blow-up tail risk even when the move looks exhausted.
| PSNY |
DO-NOT-SHORT |
locked=60% · SI/real-float=100.0%
structural score drops below 0.40 (holder 13G/A filings lighten)
GRINDCOVERELEV
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| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| SEG |
0.34 |
0.85 |
0.60 |
56% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| AMCX |
0.31 |
0.85 |
0.58 |
47% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| PSNY |
0.60 |
0.85 |
0.54 |
60% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| BTSG |
0.39 |
0.85 |
0.47 |
87% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
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| TRN |
0.13 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
45% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
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| CACC |
0.29 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
28% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
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| HOG |
0.08 |
0.85 |
0.41 |
28% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
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| AHR |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
46% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
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| SWKS |
0.26 |
0.65 |
0.40 |
52% |
IGNGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
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+ 50 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:10 ET |
Global Bond Selloff Worsens as Rising Oil Prices Spook Investors
BBG 10h ago
The global bond selloff worsening due to rising oil prices suggests that investors are increasingly concerned about inflation. This could lead to a shift in market expectations regarding interest rates, potentially causing a selloff in bonds and stocks as investors seek higher yields and safer assets. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data and Fed communications for further guidance on the inflation trajectory.
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:10 ET |
| FJ |
US Industrial Production Beats Forecasts
Strong US industrial production data may pressure Fed to keep rates higher
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54m ago |
| FJ |
UK 30-Year Yield Surges to 1998 High
Higher UK yields may attract macro traders to short gilts
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21m ago |
| FJ |
China-US Trade Talks Progress
Trade progress between China and US may boost risk assets
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2m ago |
| FJ |
Fed Rate Hike Probability Increases
Over 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by January may impact markets
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1h ago |
| FJ |
Strait of Hormuz Tensions Rise
Escalating tensions in Strait of Hormuz may impact crude prices
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3h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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INTC
$108.34
-6.5%
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Bearish
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| Composite 66 |
1M +69.2% |
3M +147.8% |
1Y +438.7% |
FLAT |
Intel (INTC) shares slumped 7% on a chipmaker selloff, with the stock falling to $108 from Thursday's close of $115.93. The semiconductor sector is experiencing a selloff, with all three major U.S.-listed chipmakers giving back a slice of their parabolic spring rallies. The market is currently mispricing INTC's potential, with analyst target at $81.
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ONDS
$11.12
-0.8%
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Bullish
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| Composite 63 |
1M +9.9% |
3M +20.4% |
1Y +11.8% |
UP |
Ondas (ONDS) surged 26.5% to $11.21 after swinging to profitability and reporting a 1,000%+ revenue surge, with Q1 revenue beating guidance by 25% and backlog growing 570% to $457 million. The company raised its 2026 revenue target to $390 million, implying strong growth momentum. However, with a 12x one-year surge, the market may be overestimating ONDS' growth prospects.
|
| Composite -21 |
1M -16.2% |
3M -23.1% |
1Y -4.2% |
DOWN |
Nu Holdings (NU) reported $5B+ in revenue for Q1 2026, with 135 million customers, and secured conditional approval for a U.S. national bank charter. However, quarterly margins came under pressure due to higher credit provisions, which management attributed to seasonality and portfolio growth. The market may be mispricing the sustainability of NU's AI-driven credit expansion.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-05-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
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2026-05-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 20 |
LCLN
Lincoln International, Inc.
|
— |
$484M |
| May 21 |
CNXU
Conexeu Sciences Inc.
|
— |
— |
| May 27 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
| May 27 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
HCWB
+235.3%
$1.13
PIII
+125.3%
$9.08
TDIC
+86.9%
$1.50
BIYA
+72.0%
$1.33
AUUD
+56.6%
$1.91
Top Losers
SLXN
-45.1%
$0.27
SOPA
-39.7%
$0.17
LNZA
-39.0%
$10.46
GAMB
-38.2%
$2.56
ZTEK
-31.7%
$0.69
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:14 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
625,250 |
254,780 |
370,470 |
1.45
|
$740C 26,919 vol |
| SPY: Bearish hedge or protective put buying indicated by P/C ratio of 1.45, no clear directional signal. |
| NVDA |
396,794 |
224,513 |
172,281 |
0.77
|
$230C 46,678 vol |
| NVDA: Call buying suggests bullish bet, especially with $230C hot with 46,678 vol, P/C ratio at 0.77. |
| QQQ |
340,762 |
120,089 |
220,673 |
1.84
|
$710C 16,460 vol |
| QQQ: Aggressive put buying with P/C ratio of 1.84, $710C hot, implies bearish or hedging flow. |
| TSLA |
271,287 |
137,030 |
134,257 |
0.98
|
$440C 16,708 vol |
| TSLA: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, as P/C ratio near 1, hot $440C vol moderate. |
| AMD |
49,434 |
29,175 |
20,259 |
0.69
|
$458C 5,110 vol |
| AMD: Call-heavy flow with P/C ratio of 0.69, $458C hot, suggests bullish positioning or speculative buying. |
|
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ARM
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$228B
· Earnings May 06
|
| $230C |
34 DTE |
+67.4% ann. |
+8.6% OTM |
Δ 0.10 |
POP 90% |
|
| Arm is gaining ground on Intel, with Intel's stock falling for a third consecutive day amid competition from AMD and Arm. |
|
PL
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$14B
· Earnings Mar 19
|
| $43C |
21 DTE |
+223.6% ann. |
+4.4% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| Planet Labs PBC (NYSE:PL) stock is trading up today, with a Wedbush analyst expecting the stock price to rise. |
|
AXTI
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$8B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $124C |
42 DTE |
+134.9% ann. |
+13.3% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| AXTI stock is rallying after the company reported an earnings beat, with investors awaiting whether the momentum will sustain. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $741 · QQQ $711 · VIX 18.6 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.6 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$730P |
62d |
1 |
$14.60 |
$1,460 |
8.6% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$755P |
62d |
1 |
$24.97 |
$2,497 |
14.7% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$720P |
62d |
2 |
$11.92 |
$2,384 |
14.0% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $755P 62d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$704 |
120% |
$98,366 |
| Correction -10% |
$667 |
104% |
$97,820 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$630 |
98% |
$97,275 |
| Crash -20% |
$593 |
95% |
$96,729 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$705P |
62d |
1 |
$22.69 |
$2,269 |
13.4% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$725P |
62d |
1 |
$31.99 |
$3,199 |
18.8% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$695P |
62d |
2 |
$19.06 |
$3,812 |
22.4% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $725P 62d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$675 |
117% |
$97,541 |
| Correction -10% |
$640 |
101% |
$96,844 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$604 |
95% |
$96,147 |
| Crash -20% |
$569 |
92% |
$95,451 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:13 ET
|
|
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 15 (MTD) · Hit rate: 31/48 · Avg return: +2.1% · YTD: +26.9%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+81.0% |
Ann. |
103.9% |
Sharpe |
4.25 |
Max DD |
-4.5% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+84.0% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$181,043 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months |
| Total |
9,012% |
Ann. |
25.4% |
Sharpe |
1.43 |
Max DD |
-41.2% |
| Win% |
67% |
Alpha |
+15.0% |
SPY |
616% |
$100K → |
$9,112,298 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| AVGO |
6.4% |
+1.3% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+5.2% |
| FBLA |
5.6% |
+0.5% |
| L |
5.5% |
-5.2% |
| GOOGL |
5.4% |
+3.3% |
| WMT |
5.4% |
+0.5% |
| HBM |
5.1% |
+11.0% |
| GEV |
4.5% |
-1.4% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
+4.5% |
| SNDK |
4.1% |
+15.2% |
| GVA |
3.7% |
-0.3% |
| TRP |
3.4% |
+1.6% |
| ROAD |
2.9% |
-5.3% |
| TRT |
2.9% |
+17.9% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
-6.3% |
| CTRE |
2.5% |
+6.3% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+1.1% |
| PDFS |
2.2% |
-0.7% |
| MU |
2.1% |
+34.9% |
| OII |
1.6% |
+0.8% |
| GKOS |
1.4% |
+1.7% |
| AMZN |
1.2% |
-1.8% |
| RY |
1.2% |
+1.5% |
| PRM |
1.2% |
+8.4% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| IHG |
1.1% |
+3.7% |
| SBUX |
1.1% |
+1.0% |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
-0.6% |
| LAR |
1.1% |
-4.6% |
| HLT |
1.1% |
-0.4% |
| INBX |
1.1% |
-16.3% |
| CMPR |
1.1% |
-0.3% |
| PL |
1.1% |
+13.8% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+10.9% |
| LWLG |
0.9% |
-14.4% |
| AAOI |
0.9% |
+5.4% |
| OSIS |
0.7% |
-24.9% |
| AHR |
0.6% |
+0.2% |
| EPD |
0.6% |
+3.9% |
| MO |
0.5% |
-3.1% |
| GRMN |
0.5% |
-5.3% |
| RRBI |
0.5% |
-3.3% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+4.6% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+6.5% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
+0.9% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+14.2% |
| META |
0.2% |
+0.8% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+2.8% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+9.3% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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