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Markets · Options · Signal
May 14, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:09 ET
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S&P 500
745.09
+0.37%
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Nasdaq
716.80
+0.29%
|
Dow
499.73
+0.52%
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Russell 2k
283.47
+0.28%
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VIX
17.89
+0.11%
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20Y Bond
85.23
+0.51%
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Gold
430.00
-0.12%
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Silver
75.98
-4.24%
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Oil
141.83
-0.15%
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USD
27.55
+0.16%
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CNN Fear & Greed
66
Greed
wk +0 · mo +19
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 722.20 |
Res: 745.88 |
RSI: 77.6 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 677.19 |
Res: 719.63 |
RSI: 80.1 |
|
Econ Calendar |
6 high-impact · Thu May 14 – Thu May 14 · as of 10:09 ET |
| Thu May 14 |
| 02:00 |
GB |
GDP (QoQ) (Q1) — est. 0.6%, prev. 0.2% |
| 02:00 |
GB |
GDP (MoM) (Mar) — est. -0.1%, prev. 0.4% |
| 02:00 |
GB |
GDP (YoY) (Q1) — est. 0.8%, prev. 1.0% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.7%, prev. 1.9% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 205K, prev. 199K |
| 08:30 |
US |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.5%, prev. 1.6% |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.98% |
-2bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.46% |
+0bps |
| Spread |
+48bps |
Steepening |
| DXY |
98.52 |
+0.04% |
| VIX/3M |
0.84 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.95% |
-0.02% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
|
| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2923
$125.73 · $430.12
|
z +0.32 · Neutral · ρ 84%
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| BTC |
$79,764 |
+0.6% |
| ETH |
$2,254 |
-0.2% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0283 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
10:12 ET |
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Financials
+0.75%
XLF
|
Technology
+0.59%
XLK
|
Communication
+0.56%
XLC
|
|
Cons. Staples
+0.45%
XLP
|
Cons. Discr.
+0.40%
XLY
|
Health Care
+0.33%
XLV
|
|
Energy
+0.31%
XLE
|
Utilities
+0.26%
XLU
|
Real Estate
+0.17%
XLRE
|
|
Industrials
+0.05%
XLI
|
Materials
-0.40%
XLB
|
In today's RECOVERY regime, Financials and Tech lead the charge, outpacing laggards like Materials and Industrials, signaling a risk-on rotation into growth and cyclicals.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 5 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 5 days, with the S&P 500 up 0.37% and Nasdaq up 0.29% from the previous close, as US Treasury Secretary Bessent comments on potential upcoming hot inflation prints. Worth watching is the divergence between Bessent's expectation of core and energy inflation coming down and her statement that oil prices will curve lower in six months, while the market continues to climb, with the Dow up 0.52% and Russell 2k up 0.28%.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:12 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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NVDA
mixed
48
“discovered an old Fidelity account i forgot about”
WSB 5932 pts · 5/5 subs
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MU
mixed
27
“I finally rest and watch the sunrise on a grateful universe”
WSB 10506 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
AMD
bullish
21
“I finally rest and watch the sunrise on a grateful universe”
WSB 10506 pts · 5/5 subs
|
QQQ
mixed
21
“I finally rest and watch the sunrise on a grateful universe”
WSB 10506 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
MSFT
mixed
14
“MSFT: Is Microsoft’s AI dominance already inevitable? Looking for the bear case …”
WSB 5 pts · 5/5 subs
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OP
mixed
14
“I went through Airbnb's last two 10-Ks. A third of their profit isn't from hosti…”
STK 485 pts · 5/5 subs
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AVGO
bearish
10
“I finally rest and watch the sunrise on a grateful universe”
WSB 10506 pts · 2/5 subs
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AMZN
mixed
10
“I finally rest and watch the sunrise on a grateful universe”
WSB 10506 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
Insider Wire |
2991 Form 4s filed · 10:09 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-09 to 2026-05-14
Insiders are dumping shares across various tech and growth stocks, with notable sales in autonomous vehicles (CAR), cloud infrastructure (DOCN), and semiconductor (LITE) sectors.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CAR |
Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider |
$1,018.0M |
| SELL |
CAR |
Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider |
$510.9M |
| SELL |
DOCN |
Access Industries Holding… Insider |
$60.8M |
| SELL |
P |
Colgrove John Chief Visionary Officer |
$17.2M |
| SELL |
LITE |
Lillie Brian Insider |
$11.7M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Gajendra Sanjay President and COO |
$9.8M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:13 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.3% |
6.2d |
-2.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
27.6% |
1.4d |
-11.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
17.9% |
2.6d |
-3.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
17.5% |
3.1d |
+19.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GVA |
15.6% |
7.9d |
+8.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
14.5% |
8.6d |
-5.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| RIVN |
14.1% |
6.0d |
-0.4% |
MODERATE
|
| CVNA |
13.1% |
4.9d |
-10.5% |
MODERATE
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8087 scanned · 79 SEC-confirmed· 4 red · 53 yellow |
Do-Not-Short · 1 name · structural lock ≥ 60%
Float is structurally compromised; shorting these carries blow-up tail risk even when the move looks exhausted.
| PSNY |
DO-NOT-SHORT |
locked=60% · SI/real-float=100.0%
structural score drops below 0.40 (holder 13G/A filings lighten)
GRINDCOVERELEV
|
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| AMCX |
0.31 |
0.85 |
0.58 |
47% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| PSNY |
0.60 |
0.85 |
0.54 |
60% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| MIRM |
0.40 |
0.85 |
0.47 |
56% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATMReadOut |
RED
|
| BTSG |
0.39 |
0.85 |
0.47 |
87% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| TRN |
0.13 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
45% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| HOG |
0.09 |
0.85 |
0.41 |
28% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| CBIO |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.41 |
84% |
ELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| AHR |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
46% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| VRCA |
0.42 |
0.65 |
0.40 |
65% |
GRINDADDELEVATMILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
+ 47 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:09 ET |
| FJ |
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Core and energy inflation will come down.
The expectation of decreasing core and energy inflation could lead to a decrease in crude oil prices, which in turn could boost equities and bonds. However, if supply shocks persist, energy prices may increase, and inflation expectations may rise. Monitor EIA inventory and OPEC meeting for potential impact on oil prices.
|
3h ago |
| BBG |
US Stocks Extend Record Climb as Cisco, AI IPO Boost Sentiment
|
2h ago |
| BBG |
Britain’s Political Crisis Spooks Crucial Overseas Bond Buyers
The UK's political crisis may lead to a decrease in gilt yields and a decline in the pound, which could negatively impact UK equities and risk assets. However, if the crisis is contained, gilt yields and the pound may recover. Watch for upcoming UK economic data and BoE meeting for further insight.
|
5h ago |
| BBG |
Fed’s Miran on Supply Shocks, Policy, Central Bank Tenure
The Fed's comments on supply shocks and policy may lead to dovish expectations, boosting stocks. However, if inflation persists, hawkish repricing may occur, leading to a decline in stocks and an increase in yields. Keep an eye on upcoming NFP and CPI prints for further guidance.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
US Treasury Secretary Bessent on oil: I see curve lower in six months, believe oil will come down quickly.
With the US Treasury Secretary expecting oil prices to decrease, we may see a decline in crude oil prices, which could boost equities. However, if supply disruptions occur, oil prices may increase, and inflation expectations may rise. Monitor OPEC meeting and EIA inventory for potential impact on oil prices.
|
3h ago |
| FT |
Treasury repo investments could be another route to a slightly smaller Fed balance sheet
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9h ago |
| FJ |
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Can 'un-tariff’ China goods we wouldn't ever reshore.
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3h ago |
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:09 ET |
| FJ |
US Inflation, Retail Sales Beat Estimates
Strong US data may boost Fed rate hike bets
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Geopolitical Tensions in Strait of Hormuz
Escalating tensions may impact crude prices
|
3h ago |
| FJ |
China-US Trade, Iran Tensions
Trump-Xi summit may influence market risk sentiment
|
3h ago |
| FJ |
Fed Rate Hike Expectations
US Treasury Secretary's comments may shape rate outlook
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3h ago |
| FJ |
UK Politics, Economic Outlook
UK minister's resignation may impact BoE policy
|
2h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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INTC
$115.19
-4.2%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 67 |
1M +85.2% |
3M +158.8% |
1Y +433.2% |
FLAT |
Intel (INTC) shares jumped 2.6% amid optimism driven by AI and strong investor momentum, with worries about a global chip shortage reaching parabolic territory. The stock has a composite score of 67/100 and a flat trend, with analyst target at $81. Risk lies in a potential overextension, similar to the 2000 dot-com bubble.
|
| Composite 55 |
1M +35.2% |
3M +117.6% |
1Y +387.9% |
FLAT |
Plug Power (PLUG) reported Q1 2026 earnings with significant revenue growth and sharp gross margin improvement, driven by its Project Quantum Leap cost reduction program. The company introduced concrete near-term milestones, including a target for clear profitability. However, meeting these milestones is crucial to fully regain investors' trust, and the market may be underestimating the challenges.
|
|
NVDA
$231.53
+2.5%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 70 |
1M +13.6% |
3M +20.8% |
1Y +73.8% |
FLAT |
Nvidia's stock rose as the Dow Jones revisited the 50,000 level, driven by Cisco's earnings surge and potential gains from the Trump-Xi summit, with Boeing also a possible winner. The AI chipmaker's recent performance is notable, with 1Y returns of +73.8% and a current analyst target of $282. However, a potential risk lies in the market's high expectations, which could lead to a sharp correction if not met.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-05-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
|
2026-05-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 14 |
CBRS
Cerebras Systems Inc.
|
— |
$5.5B |
| May 14 |
EROK
EagleRock Land, LLC
|
— |
$398M |
| May 14 |
BXDC
Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust …
|
— |
$2.0B |
| May 14 |
MWC
Micware Co., Ltd.
|
— |
$22M |
| May 14 |
AIAI
AIAI Holdings Corp
|
— |
— |
| May 20 |
LCLN
Lincoln International, Inc.
|
— |
$484M |
| May 21 |
CNXU
Conexeu Sciences Inc.
|
— |
— |
| May 27 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
YOOV
+146.2%
$1.71
CREG
+61.2%
$0.32
LNKS
+54.1%
$2.08
LESL
+47.9%
$2.12
QUCY
+47.0%
$1.97
Top Losers
MDXH
-51.3%
$0.95
STAK
-37.3%
$1.48
RGNX
-36.3%
$6.40
YYAI
-35.9%
$0.44
ALMU
-32.9%
$21.12
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:13 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
520,057 |
302,504 |
217,553 |
0.72
|
$745C 61,448 vol |
| SPY: Call-heavy flow with $745C leading the way, suggests bullish positioning. |
| NVDA |
350,746 |
243,555 |
107,191 |
0.44
|
$235C 50,024 vol |
| NVDA: Aggressive call buying with P/C=0.44 and 50,024 $235C vol, indicates bullish bet. |
| TSLA |
163,848 |
100,129 |
63,719 |
0.64
|
$450C 15,462 vol |
| TSLA: Call-heavy flow with $450C hot, implies moderate bullish positioning. |
| QQQ |
122,461 |
43,661 |
78,800 |
1.80
|
$720C 18,604 vol |
| QQQ: Put-heavy flow with P/C=1.80 and $720C active, suggests bearish or protective positioning. |
| AMD |
32,263 |
19,807 |
12,456 |
0.63
|
$440C 1,469 vol |
| AMD: Moderate call buying with $440C leading, indicates some bullish interest. |
|
|
MRVL
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$163B
· Earnings Mar 05
· Div 0.1%
|
| $200C |
35 DTE |
+86.5% ann. |
+9.7% OTM |
Δ 0.09 |
POP 91% |
|
| Marvell Technology stock is moving amid analyst coverage and speculation, with Forbes citing a potential path to $400 for MRVL. |
|
AAOI
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$16B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $225C |
22 DTE |
+227.7% ann. |
+5.6% OTM |
Δ 0.14 |
POP 86% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) surges 8% as part of a broader optics stock rally, with analysts hiking AI-driven price targets for the company. |
|
INOD
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$3B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $99C |
43 DTE |
+65.7% ann. |
+13.5% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Innodata's EVP and COO sold 234,000 shares, according to a report by Quiver Quantitative. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $745 · QQQ $717 · VIX 17.9 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 17.9 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$735P |
63d |
1 |
$14.71 |
$1,471 |
8.5% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$755P |
63d |
1 |
$22.75 |
$2,275 |
13.2% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$725P |
63d |
2 |
$11.92 |
$2,384 |
13.8% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $755P 63d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$708 |
110% |
$98,165 |
| Correction -10% |
$671 |
99% |
$97,642 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$634 |
95% |
$97,119 |
| Crash -20% |
$596 |
93% |
$96,595 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$710P |
63d |
1 |
$22.29 |
$2,229 |
12.9% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$730P |
63d |
1 |
$31.47 |
$3,147 |
18.2% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$700P |
63d |
2 |
$18.63 |
$3,726 |
21.6% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $730P 63d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$681 |
115% |
$97,488 |
| Correction -10% |
$645 |
100% |
$96,823 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$609 |
95% |
$96,158 |
| Crash -20% |
$574 |
92% |
$95,493 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:12 ET
|
|
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 14 (MTD) · Hit rate: 32/48 · Avg return: +3.0% · YTD: +28.0%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+81.0% |
Ann. |
103.9% |
Sharpe |
4.25 |
Max DD |
-4.5% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+84.0% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$181,043 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months |
| Total |
9,012% |
Ann. |
25.4% |
Sharpe |
1.43 |
Max DD |
-41.2% |
| Win% |
67% |
Alpha |
+15.0% |
SPY |
616% |
$100K → |
$9,112,298 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| AVGO |
6.4% |
+1.5% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+8.4% |
| FBLA |
5.6% |
+1.0% |
| L |
5.5% |
-5.6% |
| GOOGL |
5.4% |
+3.1% |
| WMT |
5.4% |
+0.6% |
| HBM |
5.1% |
+18.2% |
| GEV |
4.5% |
+0.0% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
+2.5% |
| SNDK |
4.1% |
+18.1% |
| GVA |
3.7% |
+3.4% |
| TRP |
3.4% |
+1.8% |
| ROAD |
2.9% |
+0.9% |
| TRT |
2.9% |
-10.2% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
-4.4% |
| CTRE |
2.5% |
+7.8% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+1.6% |
| PDFS |
2.2% |
+3.7% |
| MU |
2.1% |
+46.1% |
| OII |
1.6% |
+5.0% |
| GKOS |
1.4% |
-0.8% |
| AMZN |
1.2% |
+0.0% |
| RY |
1.2% |
+0.8% |
| PRM |
1.2% |
+10.3% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| IHG |
1.1% |
+5.7% |
| SBUX |
1.1% |
+2.0% |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
+0.3% |
| LAR |
1.1% |
-3.2% |
| HLT |
1.1% |
-0.4% |
| INBX |
1.1% |
-8.9% |
| CMPR |
1.1% |
-3.8% |
| PL |
1.1% |
+10.6% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+13.0% |
| LWLG |
0.9% |
-10.4% |
| AAOI |
0.9% |
+12.2% |
| OSIS |
0.7% |
-22.6% |
| AHR |
0.6% |
+2.5% |
| EPD |
0.6% |
+2.0% |
| MO |
0.5% |
-3.7% |
| GRMN |
0.5% |
-4.4% |
| RRBI |
0.5% |
-1.5% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+4.7% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+6.3% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
-2.6% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+16.5% |
| META |
0.2% |
+1.9% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+2.2% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+13.2% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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