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MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
May 13, 2026 · All times ET
Regime RECOVERY Day 4
Market Snapshot · 10:09 ET
S&P 500
737.11
-0.14%
Nasdaq
705.98
-0.18%
Dow
496.36
-0.31%
Russell 2k
280.72
-0.65%
VIX
18.17
+1.00%
20Y Bond
84.86
-0.15%
Gold
429.61
-0.77%
Silver
79.09
+0.68%
Oil
144.50
+0.14%
USD
27.52
+0.24%
CNN Fear & Greed
64 Greed
wk -5 · mo +23
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bullish Sup: 719.77 Res: 740.79 RSI: 73.4
QQQ Trend: Bullish Sup: 672.99 Res: 714.59 RSI: 77.4
Econ Calendar
8 high-impact · Wed May 13 – Thu May 14 · as of 10:09 ET
Wed May 13
08:30 US PPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.5%, prev. 0.7%
10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories — est. -2.000M, prev. -2.313M
13:00 US 30-Year Bond Auction — prev. 4.876%
Thu May 14
02:00 GB GDP (QoQ) (Q1) — est. 0.6%, prev. 0.1%
02:00 GB GDP (YoY) (Q1) — est. 0.8%, prev. 1.0%
02:00 GB GDP (MoM) (Mar) — est. -0.1%, prev. 0.5%
08:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.7%, prev. 1.9%
08:30 US Initial Jobless Claims — est. 205K, prev. 200K
Macro Snapshot
10:12 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 4.00% +5bps
10Y Yield 4.46% +4bps
Spread +46bps Flattening
DXY 98.39 +0.10%
VIX/3M 0.86 Contango
HY OAS 6.97% +0.09%
BZ–WTI 0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
GDXJ–GLD 0.2975
$127.78 · $429.58
z +0.69 · Neutral · ρ 85%
BTC $79,640 -1.0%
ETH $2,261 -0.6%
ETH/BTC 0.0284
Sector Rotation · Today
10:12 ET
Cons. Staples
+0.63%
XLP
Materials
+0.58%
XLB
Communication
+0.14%
XLC
Health Care
+0.05%
XLV
Cons. Discr.
-0.07%
XLY
Energy
-0.25%
XLE
Technology
-0.31%
XLK
Industrials
-0.56%
XLI
Financials
-0.60%
XLF
Real Estate
-0.99%
XLRE
Utilities
-1.54%
XLU
In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a defensive tilt with Cons. Staples and Communication outperforming, while Financials and Real Estate lag, hinting at risk-off undertones.
Regime Timeline
HMM Regime Detection — SPY 90-day timeline
From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 4 (prev. close)
“The market is in a Recovery regime for 4 days, following a transition from Bull, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped 0.14% and 0.18% respectively, while the Dow and Russell 2k fell 0.31% and 0.65%. Worth watching is the divergence between rising bond yields, driven by Fed-hike bets on PPI and UK borrowing costs surge, and the ongoing AI-driven profit boom, which may be mispricing the impact of sustained high oil prices into 2027.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — White House
Trump, Xi to weigh tariff cuts on $30 billion of imports in managed trade push
RTR 46m ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
US court pauses decision blocking Trump’s 10 percent global tariff
AL 5h ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
Trump’s Trade War With China: How We Got to a Stalemate In 3 Numbers
THE 10h ago
$BABA$FXI$KWEB
Trump loses his trade superpower
FIN 17h ago
President Trump Issues New Executive Order Significantly Increasing Sanctions Risk for Non U.S. Companies and Financial Institutions Doing Business with Cuba
JD 20h ago
$EEM$SPY VolatilityAffected SectorEmerging Markets
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:11 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
MU mixed 44
“MU is the cleanest play on the imminent Samsung strike”
WSB 659 pts · 5/5 subs
EBAY bullish 33
“EBay Rejects GameStop’s $56 Billion Takeover as Not Credible”
WSB 6595 pts · 4/5 subs
TRIP mixed 30
“Jensen Huang is joining China trip after Trump called the Nvidia CEO: Source”
WSB 2204 pts · 5/5 subs
AMD bullish 29
“AMD +21k % - 10 Years of Diamond Hands. Thank you, Lisa.”
WSB 3170 pts · 5/5 subs
NVDA mixed 14
“MU is the cleanest play on the imminent Samsung strike”
WSB 659 pts · 5/5 subs
OP mixed 14
“I went through Airbnb's last two 10-Ks. A third of their profit isn't from hosti…”
STK 439 pts · 5/5 subs
GPUS mixed 10
“AI cloud firm Nebius reports near eightfold revenue jump, shares surge”
STK 47 pts · 4/5 subs
NHS mixed 10
“Palantir to be granted ‘unlimited access’ to NHS patient data”
WSB 5050 pts
Insider Wire
3296 Form 4s filed · 10:09 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-08 to 2026-05-13
Notable insider trades show a bearish tilt, with hedge funds Pentwater and Magnetar dumping shares in CAR and CRWV, respectively, ahead of earnings, no clear sector buys emerge.
Ticker Insider Value
SELL CAR Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider $1,018.0M
SELL CAR Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider $510.9M
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $164.4M
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $109.1M
SELL DOCN Access Industries Holding… Insider $60.8M
SELL ALAB Gajendra Sanjay President and COO $9.8M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 10:12 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
UPST 32.3% 6.2d -2.4% HIGH
BYND 27.6% 1.4d -11.1% ELEVATED
SMCI 17.9% 2.6d -3.1% ELEVATED
AMC 15.4% 3.0d -24.2% ELEVATED
GME 15.1% 9.8d -3.6% ELEVATED
GVA 14.4% 7.5d +9.9% MODERATE
RIVN 14.1% 6.0d -0.4% MODERATE
CVNA 13.5% 4.9d +9.1% MODERATE
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor
8133 scanned · 94 SEC-confirmed· 9 red · 64 yellow
Do-Not-Short · 1 name · structural lock ≥ 60%
Float is structurally compromised; shorting these carries blow-up tail risk even when the move looks exhausted.
PSNY DO-NOT-SHORT
locked=60% · SI/real-float=100.0%
structural score drops below 0.40 (holder 13G/A filings lighten)
GRINDCOVERELEV
Ticker Struct Ignit Final Hldrs Flags Bucket
SGRY 0.44 0.85 0.65 58% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
AMRN 0.32 0.85 0.59 8% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
AMCX 0.31 0.85 0.58 47% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
PSNY 0.60 0.85 0.54 60% GRINDCOVERELEV RED
MIRM 0.40 0.85 0.47 56% GRINDCOVERELEVATMReadOut RED
BTSG 0.38 0.85 0.46 87% GRINDCOVERELEV RED
CBIO 0.55 0.65 0.45 84% GRINDADDELEVATM* RED
IRON 0.34 0.85 0.45 55% GRINDCOVERELEVATM*NDA RED
TBPH 0.32 0.85 0.44 46% GRINDCOVERELEVNDA RED
LCID 0.55 0.10 0.55 76% PREELEVATM* YELLOW
+ 63 more yellow names not shown
Market Headlines
8 sources · 10:09 ET
Bonds Fall as Traders Boost Fed-Hike Bets on PPI: Markets Wrap
BBG 16h ago
With traders boosting Fed-hike bets on strong PPI data, expect bonds to fall and the USD to strengthen, potentially leading to a sell-off in stocks. The upcoming Fed meeting will be crucial in determining the market's direction. Keep an eye on economic indicators to gauge the Fed's future actions.
FT UK borrowing costs surge as Starmer leadership crisis rattles bond markets
The UK borrowing costs surge due to the leadership crisis, which may lead to higher yields and a weaker GBP. A quick resolution to the crisis could stabilize markets, but until then, investors will likely remain cautious. Monitor UK political developments and BoE statements for further guidance.
21h ago
FJ OPEC: OPEC+ crude output averaged 33.19 million bpd in April 2026, down 1.74 million bpd from March, as Iran's war prompted Middle East members to cut output.
OPEC+ crude output cuts could lead to higher oil prices, impacting cross-asset markets, especially energy stocks and bonds. Non-OPEC production increases could mitigate this effect, but for now, the market seems to be pricing in supply cuts. Watch OPEC+ meetings and global economic data for further clues.
2h ago
FJ IMF's Managing Director Georgieva: If oil prices stay high into 2027, there is a risk of a technical recession.
High oil prices into 2027 pose a risk of a technical recession, which could lead to lower stock markets and a flight to safe-haven assets. A significant drop in oil prices or strong economic indicators could alleviate recession fears. Keep an eye on economic data releases and oil prices.
29m ago
BBG Stocks Waver as Traders Weigh Hot PPI Against AI’s Profit Boom
The market is uncertain about the dominant theme between economic strength and AI's profit boom, leading to stock market volatility. Earnings reports and economic data releases will be crucial in determining the market's direction. AI-related stocks may experience significant movements.
1h ago
BBG Wells Fargo Markets Investment-Grade Bond Sale in Three Parts 55m ago
YHO Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq mixed as PPI inflation data comes in hot 15h ago
BBG US 10-Year Yield Hits Highest Since July on Inflation Angst 1h ago
Financial Wire
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:09 ET
FJ BoE's Mann Warns of Policy Trade-Offs
BoE's Mann flags risks of tighter policy stance on financial conditions
4m ago
FJ OPEC Raises Oil Demand Forecast
OPEC ups 2027 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.54 million bpd
2h ago
FJ ECB Rate Hike Uncertainty
ECB's Kocher says June decision is between a hike and a hold
1h ago
FJ Geopolitical Tensions Rise
Gulf states to win NATO summit invites amid Iran war concerns
1h ago
FJ US Inflation Pressures Persist
US Core PPI YoY rises to 5.2%, beating forecast
1h ago
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
Research Digest
10:12 ET
STRL $841.99 -1.1% Bullish
Composite 78 1M +83.3% 3M +96.2% 1Y +364.5% FLAT
Target $574
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) recently reported healthy earnings, driving market interest. The company's backlog has surged, with potential to fuel another EPS breakout in 2026, according to Zacks. However, with a composite score of 78/100 and a current price run-up of +364.5% in 1Y, the market may be overestimating its growth prospects.
SIM We Like Sterling Infrastructure's (NASDAQ:STRL) Earnings For More Than Just Statutory Profit
ZAC 3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
ZAC Can Sterling's Backlog Explosion Fuel Another EPS Breakout in 2026?
NVDA $223.35 +1.2% Bullish
Composite 67 1M +12.4% 3M +16.2% 1Y +79.5% FLAT
Target $279
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined President Trump's trip to China, meeting with leader Xi Jinping, alongside other tech executives. NVDA reports Q1 earnings on May 20, with analyst target price at $279. Earnings momentum could stall if results disappoint, causing a pullback from recent 1Y +79.5% gains.
YHO Tech stocks today: Cook, Musk, and Huang join Trump for China trip, OpenAI trial continues
YHO Nvidia's Jensen Huang is a late addition to Trump's China trip, joining Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and oth
YHO Quantum Computing stock surges after revenue beat
PLTR $132.29 -2.7% Bullish
Composite 23 1M +0.2% 3M +0.2% 1Y +14.8% FLAT
Target $192
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) expanded its cooperation with Ukraine to broaden AI use in military and civilian defense operations, with CEO Alex Karp meeting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to advance AI collaboration. This development puts battlefield data at the center of PLTR's growth narrative. However, if the Ukraine conflict escalates or AI adoption slows, PLTR's growth may stall.
SIM High Growth Tech Stocks In The US For May 2026
MOT Meet the AI Stock Crushing Palantir, Nvidia, and Alphabet Right Now
THE Corrections & Amplifications
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Analyst Moves
10:12 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
AVGO Buy 53 / 4 / 0 2026-05-01
NVDA Buy 66 / 4 / 1 2026-05-01
WMT Buy 44 / 4 / 0 2026-05-01
AMZN Buy 72 / 6 / 0 2026-05-01
MSFT Buy 60 / 6 / 0 2026-05-01
GOOGL Buy 62 / 8 / 0 2026-05-01
META Buy 64 / 9 / 0 2026-05-01
AAPL Buy 39 / 13 / 2 2026-05-01
IPO Calendar
10:12 ET
Date Company Range Size
May 13 FRVO Fervo Energy Co — $2.1B
May 13 GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. — $918M
May 14 CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. — $5.5B
May 14 EROK EagleRock Land, LLC — $398M
May 14 BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust … — $2.0B
May 14 AIAI AIAI Holdings Corp — —
May 20 LCLN Lincoln International, Inc. — $484M
May 21 CNXU Conexeu Sciences Inc. — —
Congressional Trades
1 disclosures · 14d
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
Member Ticker Type Amount
Maria Elvira Salazar CARR Purchase $1,001 - $15,000
Market Movers
FMP real-time
Top Gainers
FCHL +63.8% $2.18 TDIC +44.5% $3.41 AMPGR +39.6% $0.07 VELO +38.7% $19.50 AIIO +37.4% $1.76
Top Losers
TLSI -48.5% $2.35 IDN -36.7% $4.57 HTCO -34.6% $7.38 UBXG -34.2% $0.14 RCAX -32.0% $5.88
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 10:12 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 452,024 174,586 277,438
1.59
$738C 35,423 vol
SPY: Heavy put buying, P/C=1.59, suggests protective hedge or bearish bet ahead of potential market volatility.
NVDA 369,478 295,261 74,217
0.25
$228C 82,469 vol
NVDA: Aggressive call buying, P/C=0.25, indicates bullish institutional positioning, targeting $228 level.
TSLA 156,201 98,032 58,169
0.59
$440C 18,683 vol
TSLA: Call buying with relatively low P/C=0.59, hints at directional bullish bet, focusing on $440 strike.
QQQ 146,449 41,337 105,112
2.54
$710C 19,032 vol
QQQ: Extreme put-call ratio, P/C=2.54, with $710C activity, signals potential gamma squeeze setup or hedge.
AMD 30,115 17,605 12,510
0.71
$280C 1,935 vol
AMD: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with modest call and put activity, P/C=0.71.
Income Plays
10:12 ET
MU CC Best Quality Very High · max 3% $887B · Earnings Mar 18 · Div 0.1%
$900C 44 DTE +81.2% ann. +11.7% OTM Δ 0.07 POP 93%
Micron shares are rising despite a weak overall market, contributing to a rally in memory chip stocks, according to a CNBC report.
AAOI CC Craziest Return Low · max 1% $16B · Earnings May 07
$220C 23 DTE +210.2% ann. +5.2% OTM Δ 0.20 POP 80%
Applied Optoelectronics starts 800G volume shipments and expects up to $198M in Q2 revenue, driving the stock's recent surge.
AVGO CC Safest Moderate · max 1.5% $1.9T · Earnings Mar 04 · Div 0.6%
$465C 44 DTE +25.0% ann. +13.1% OTM Δ 0.05 POP 95%
Citi raised Broadcom's (AVGO) stock price target, citing it as "The Best Chip Name in 2026", according to a TipRanks report.
Portfolio Hedge
SPY $737 · QQQ $707 · VIX 18.2
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.2 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$730P 64d 1 $15.70 $1,570 9.0%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$750P 64d 1 $24.12 $2,412 13.8%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$715P 64d 2 $11.54 $2,308 13.2%
Scenario: 1× SPY $750P 64d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario SPY Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $700 117% $98,313
Correction -10% $663 102% $97,748
Bear leg -15% $627 97% $97,184
Crash -20% $590 94% $96,619
QQQ Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$700P 64d 1 $21.61 $2,161 12.3%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$720P 64d 1 $30.59 $3,059 17.4%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$690P 64d 2 $18.07 $3,614 20.6%
Scenario: 1× QQQ $720P 64d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario QQQ Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $671 114% $97,551
Correction -10% $636 99% $96,834
Bear leg -15% $601 94% $96,118
Crash -20% $565 91% $95,402
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:12 ET
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 13 (MTD) · Hit rate: 30/48 · Avg return: +2.4% · YTD: +25.7%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months
Return +76.4% Ann. 97.5% Sharpe 4.21 Max DD -4.5%
Win% 90% Alpha +77.7% SPY +16.3% $100K → $176,357
Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months
Total 8,470% Ann. 25.0% Sharpe 1.43 Max DD -40.9%
Win% 68% Alpha +14.7% SPY 616% $100K → $8,570,072
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
FBLA 7.3% -0.7%
AVGO 6.6% -3.1%
GOOGL 6.2% +1.6%
KLAC 6.1% +4.2%
WMT 5.3% +0.5%
L 5.2% -6.1%
HBM 5.1% +19.8%
BWET 4.5% +2.2%
TRP 4.2% +0.4%
GEV 3.9% -0.7%
GVA 3.7% +1.0%
SNDK 3.5% +18.7%
ROAD 2.9% -2.2%
TRT 2.9% -23.2%
MU 2.5% +44.4%
CTRE 2.5% +6.5%
HWKN 2.3% +1.3%
QLTY 2.2% +0.6%
PDFS 2.2% +15.5%
OII 1.6% +2.6%
AMZN 1.3% -0.8%
GKOS 1.1% -3.8%
VFLO 1.1% +0.1%
HLT 1.1% -1.1%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
RY 1.0% +1.7%
PRM 1.0% +8.4%
LAR 1.0% +5.7%
HWM 1.0% +13.0%
IHG 1.0% +5.6%
SBUX 0.9% +1.6%
INBX 0.9% -14.1%
CMPR 0.9% -4.3%
PL 0.9% +5.8%
LWLG 0.8% -0.3%
AAOI 0.8% +6.7%
OSIS 0.7% -21.1%
AHR 0.6% +1.7%
MO 0.5% -4.9%
GRMN 0.5% -2.1%
RRBI 0.5% -1.4%
EPD 0.5% +0.9%
AAPL 0.2% +5.5%
LLY 0.2% +3.8%
NVDA 0.2% +12.5%
MSFT 0.2% -2.6%
BRK.B 0.2% +2.8%
TSLA 0.2% +11.7%
META 0.2% -0.3%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
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