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Markets · Options · Signal
May 11, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 12:55 ET
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S&P 500
739.23
+0.22%
|
Nasdaq
712.75
+0.21%
|
Dow
496.04
-0.02%
|
Russell 2k
285.78
+0.57%
|
VIX
18.12
+5.41%
|
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20Y Bond
85.61
-0.54%
|
Gold
432.98
-0.18%
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Silver
77.04
+5.52%
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Oil
140.61
+5.25%
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USD
27.36
+0.05%
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|
CNN Fear & Greed
68
Greed
wk +1 · mo +30
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 715.74 |
Res: 740.44 |
RSI: 76.2 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 665.57 |
Res: 714.59 |
RSI: 83.3 |
|
Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Mon May 11 – Wed May 13 · as of 12:55 ET |
| Mon May 11 |
| 10:00 |
US |
Existing Home Sales (Apr) — est. 4.05M, prev. 4.01M |
| Tue May 12 |
| 02:00 |
DE |
German CPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.6%, prev. 0.6% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2% |
| 08:30 |
US |
CPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.6%, prev. 0.9% |
| 08:30 |
US |
CPI (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.7%, prev. 3.3% |
| 13:00 |
US |
10-Year Note Auction — prev. 4.282% |
| Wed May 13 |
| 08:30 |
US |
PPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.5%, prev. 0.5% |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — prev. -2.313M |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.90% |
-2bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.38% |
-3bps |
| Spread |
+48bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
97.80 |
-0.23% |
| VIX/3M |
0.86 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.85% |
+0.00% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
|
| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2961
$128.14 · $432.82
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z +0.63 · Neutral · ρ 85%
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| BTC |
$81,686 |
-0.6% |
| ETH |
$2,333 |
-1.6% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0286 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
12:58 ET |
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Energy
+2.40%
XLE
|
Materials
+1.33%
XLB
|
Technology
+1.15%
XLK
|
|
Industrials
+0.99%
XLI
|
Utilities
+0.88%
XLU
|
Real Estate
+0.33%
XLRE
|
|
Health Care
-0.20%
XLV
|
Financials
-0.20%
XLF
|
Cons. Discr.
-0.65%
XLY
|
|
Communication
-1.06%
XLC
|
Cons. Staples
-1.44%
XLP
|
In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a risk-on rotation into cyclical sectors, with Energy, Materials, and Technology leading, while Defensives like Cons. Staples lag.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 1 (prev. close)
“The market is in a Recovery regime, having transitioned from Bull just 1 day ago, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up +0.22% and +0.21% respectively, while the Dow fell -0.02%. Worth watching is the divergence between falling Treasuries and rising oil prices amid the US-Iran deadlock, while the labor market shows resilience with Goldman and BofA delaying Fed cut calls.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 12:57 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
|
AMD
mixed
24
“Hail Mary +$15K $ASTS”
WSB 39 pts · 5/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
21
“r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - May 11, 2026”
STK 4 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
RKLB
mixed
16
“The CEO ate his hat and is a fucking rocket scientist. RKLB 🚀”
WSB 227 pts · 4/5 subs
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NVDA
mixed
16
“$15k in 15 mins with NQ futures and NVDA 220c 5/11”
WSB 15 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
R
mixed
13
“Daily Discussion Thread for May 11, 2026”
WSB 193 pts · 5/5 subs
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GPUS
mixed
11
“How can the market accepts such a low forward P/E for MU?”
STK 84 pts · 3/5 subs
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VOO
bullish
9
“If you had $7.5k to invest tomorrow, what would you do in this current market?”
STK 316 pts · 4/5 subs
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MU
mixed
8
“MU to the moon - 100k gain!”
WSB 28 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
Insider Wire |
2810 Form 4s filed · 12:55 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-06 to 2026-05-11
Magnetar Financial aggressively dumps Corero Security Solutions (CRWV) holdings, while CEO Intrator also sells, ahead of earnings, amidst a flurry of executive selling in the cybersecurity sector.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$164.4M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$125.0M |
| SELL |
PWR |
Austin Earl C. Jr. President and CEO |
$120.2M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$109.1M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$76.3M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Intrator Michael N CEO and President |
$39.3M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 12:58 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
6.0d |
+0.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
31.1% |
4.6d |
+6.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.3% |
1.8d |
-1.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.4% |
3.0d |
-24.2% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.1% |
9.8d |
-3.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| GVA |
14.4% |
7.5d |
+9.9% |
MODERATE
|
| CVNA |
13.5% |
4.9d |
+9.1% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
13.1% |
5.3d |
-1.9% |
MODERATE
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|
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8081 scanned · 73 SEC-confirmed· 8 red · 44 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| SGRY |
0.44 |
0.85 |
0.65 |
58% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| PSNY |
0.45 |
0.85 |
0.49 |
98% |
GRINDCOVERELEVDDUP? |
RED
|
| MIRM |
0.40 |
0.85 |
0.47 |
56% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATMReadOut |
RED
|
| BTSG |
0.38 |
0.85 |
0.46 |
87% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| RUSHB |
0.35 |
0.85 |
0.45 |
95% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| CBIO |
0.55 |
0.65 |
0.45 |
84% |
GRINDADDELEVATM* |
RED
|
| IRON |
0.34 |
0.85 |
0.45 |
55% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM*NDA |
RED
|
| TBPH |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
46% |
GRINDCOVERELEVNDA |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| TRN |
0.13 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
45% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
+ 42 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 12:55 ET |
Goldman, BofA Delay Fed Cut Calls After ‘Last Straw’ Jobs Data
BBG 1h ago
The strong jobs data has led to a reevaluation of the Fed's rate cut expectations, potentially keeping rates higher for longer. This could lead to a stronger USD, lower stocks, and higher yields. The upcoming CPI and retail sales data will be crucial in determining the market's direction. For now, it's essential to monitor these data points for a clearer understanding of the economic growth trajectory.
| BBG |
Brazil’s Mastercard Rival Elo Taps Bank of America, Other Banks for US IPO
|
1h ago |
| BBG |
Treasuries Fall and Oil Rises on US-Iran Deadlock: Markets Wrap
The deadlock between the US and Iran has increased geopolitical risks, driving oil prices up and potentially leading to a risk-off sentiment in the market. If diplomacy prevails, oil prices could decline, and risk assets might rally. The OPEC meeting and diplomatic developments will be critical in determining the trajectory of oil prices and market sentiment.
|
18h ago |
| BBG |
Peru Authorizes $2 Billion New Emergency Loan for Petroperu
The Peruvian government's emergency loan to Petroperu may lead to a reaction in credit spreads, reflecting the market's assessment of the country's fiscal sustainability. If concerns about fiscal sustainability arise, credit spreads could widen, negatively impacting the market. Upcoming economic data and Petroperu's credit metrics will provide valuable insights into the situation.
|
3h ago |
| BBG |
US to Temporarily Lower Beef Import Tariffs, WSJ Says
The temporary lowering of beef import tariffs could boost agricultural stocks, at least in the short term. However, if trade tensions escalate, agricultural stocks might decline, and the market could react negatively. The outcome of trade negotiations and US agricultural exports data will be essential in determining the market's direction.
|
46m ago |
| BBG |
Bond CEO: Private Jet Demand Set to Surge
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
MOO Imbalance
|
3h ago |
| CNBC |
The Federal Reserve is quickly running out of reasons to cut interest rates
|
1h ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 12:55 ET |
| FJ |
Fed Bids $13.8bln for 3-Year Notes
Systematic desks monitor Fed operations for liquidity clues
|
10m ago |
| FJ |
Trump Seeks Diplomatic Solution with Iran
Macro traders watch for de-escalation in Middle East tensions
|
50m ago |
| FJ |
US 6-Month Bill Yield Hits 3.615%
Short-term interest rates influence money market dynamics
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Trump-Xi to Discuss Energy and Iran
Geopolitical developments impact global risk sentiment
|
44m ago |
| FJ |
Existing Home Sales Rise 0.2%
Housing market data informs growth and rate expectations
|
2h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 31 flashes scanned
|
| Composite 71 |
1M +53.4% |
3M +63.8% |
1Y +6.8% |
FLAT |
Micron Technology (MU) hit a record high as memory chip stocks surged, with its DRAM ETF reaching $6.5 billion. The stock has returned +53.4% in the last month and +63.8% in the last quarter. However, with a composite score of 71/100 and a trend labeled as FLAT, there's a risk that the market may be overpricing MU's growth prospects.
|
|
BE
$293.79
+12.6%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 74 |
1M +61.5% |
3M +80.8% |
1Y +14.6% |
UP |
Bloom Energy (BE) surged 90.3% over 30 days and 162.1% year to date, closing at $258.64, after beating earnings expectations last week, which led to a significant price hike. The stock's rapid growth contrasts with Brookfield Renewable's steady dividend payments. However, the market may be overreacting, given the analyst target price of $188.
|
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IDEQ
$35.15
+0.0%
|
Bullish
|
The Lazard International Dynamic Equity ETF (IDEQ) has outperformed peers and benchmark for a decade, converting from a mutual fund last year. Vodafone Idea shares surged over 10% despite market crash. IDEQ's holdings may be shifting, driving interest; however, specifics are unclear. Risk: Market rotation or Vodafone Idea's surge reversal could impact IDEQ's performance.
|
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-05-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
|
2026-05-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 12 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| May 13 |
FRVO
Fervo Energy Co
|
— |
$1.5B |
| May 13 |
GMRS
GMR Solutions Inc.
|
— |
$918M |
| May 14 |
CBRS
Cerebras Systems Inc.
|
— |
$4.0B |
| May 14 |
EROK
EagleRock Land, LLC
|
— |
$398M |
| May 14 |
BXDC
Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust …
|
— |
$2.0B |
| May 15 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
|
Congressional Trades |
3 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Gilbert Cisneros |
DASH |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Tony Wied |
FIHBX |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Maria Elvira Salazar |
CARR |
Purchase |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
OLOX
+921.7%
$4.66
POM
+170.9%
$0.20
MEHA
+75.9%
$0.17
JZXN
+61.3%
$1.46
MRAM
+53.2%
$41.36
Top Losers
RPGL
-43.2%
$0.47
LHAI
-34.9%
$0.86
SMX
-33.4%
$14.79
PTIX
-32.9%
$0.53
PMAX
-31.7%
$2.72
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 12:58 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
3,067,919 |
1,417,684 |
1,650,235 |
1.16
|
$740C 418,722 vol |
| SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C=1.16, suggests protective hedging ahead of potential market volatility. |
| TSLA |
1,696,873 |
1,063,003 |
633,870 |
0.60
|
$440C 127,291 vol |
| TSLA: Call buying, especially 127,291 $440C, indicates bullish bets on TSLA's recovery continuation. |
| QQQ |
1,609,991 |
619,033 |
990,958 |
1.60
|
$713C 184,008 vol |
| QQQ: Aggressive put buying, P/C=1.60, with $713C hot, may signal earnings-related hedges or tech sector concerns. |
| NVDA |
1,450,089 |
1,022,005 |
428,084 |
0.42
|
$220C 357,347 vol |
| NVDA: Call-heavy flow, P/C=0.42, and 357,347 $220C suggest bullish positioning, possibly gamma squeeze setup. |
| AMD |
164,837 |
100,610 |
64,227 |
0.64
|
$500C 10,085 vol |
| AMD: Low-volume mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with slight call bias and $500C interest. |
|
|
DELL
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$80B
· Earnings Feb 26
· Div 1.0%
|
| $200P |
38 DTE |
+24.5% ann. |
+18.2% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
|
| Dell's stock soared 14% after Trump suggested buying the stock, following a $6.25B donation from the Dell family to 'Trump Accounts' in December. |
|
MXL
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$9B
· Earnings Apr 23
|
| $90P |
38 DTE |
+143.0% ann. |
+11.9% OTM |
Δ 0.31 |
POP 69% |
|
| MaxLinear, Inc.'s stock is being driven by analyst upgrades following its latest results and insider selling, including a 35,000-share sale by Connie Kwong. |
|
TTMI
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
|
$17B
· Earnings Apr 29
|
| $130P |
38 DTE |
+32.5% ann. |
+19.8% OTM |
Δ 0.17 |
POP 83% |
|
| TTM Technologies, Inc. ($TTMI) shares are soaring today, prompting questions if it's too late to consider the stock after its recent share price surge. |
|
INTC
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$633B
· Earnings Apr 23
|
| $140C |
38 DTE |
+83.1% ann. |
+9.8% OTM |
Δ 0.09 |
POP 91% |
|
| Intel stock rises on reports of a second huge chip customer and the CEO's announcement of "exciting new products" with Nvidia. |
|
MRAM
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$962M
· Earnings Apr 29
|
| $45C |
38 DTE |
+209.2% ann. |
+7.7% OTM |
Δ 0.14 |
POP 86% |
|
| MRAM stock is surging due to a $40 million defense contract, with Everspin being a specific company mentioned as having secured such a deal. |
|
SIMO
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$9B
· Earnings Apr 28
· Div 0.8%
|
| $300C |
38 DTE |
+63.1% ann. |
+12.1% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Silicon Motion Technology's (SIMO) stock has surged 368% over the past year, prompting questions about whether it has run too far. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $739 · QQQ $713 · VIX 18.1 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$730P |
66d |
1 |
$15.25 |
$1,525 |
8.4% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$750P |
66d |
1 |
$23.31 |
$2,331 |
12.9% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$720P |
66d |
2 |
$12.42 |
$2,484 |
13.7% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $750P 66d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$702 |
112% |
$98,192 |
| Correction -10% |
$665 |
100% |
$97,638 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$628 |
95% |
$97,084 |
| Crash -20% |
$591 |
93% |
$96,531 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$705P |
66d |
1 |
$21.89 |
$2,189 |
12.1% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$725P |
66d |
1 |
$30.82 |
$3,082 |
17.0% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$695P |
66d |
2 |
$18.35 |
$3,670 |
20.3% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $725P 66d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$677 |
113% |
$97,462 |
| Correction -10% |
$641 |
98% |
$96,776 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$606 |
94% |
$96,089 |
| Crash -20% |
$570 |
91% |
$95,403 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 12:58 ET
|
|
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 11 (MTD) · Hit rate: 30/43 · Avg return: +4.2% · YTD: +25.8%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+70.5% |
Ann. |
89.7% |
Sharpe |
4.11 |
Max DD |
-4.4% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+69.8% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$170,471 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months |
| Total |
7,698% |
Ann. |
24.5% |
Sharpe |
1.41 |
Max DD |
-40.5% |
| Win% |
68% |
Alpha |
+14.1% |
SPY |
616% |
$100K → |
$7,798,099 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| FBLA |
8.4% |
-0.3% |
| AVGO |
8.0% |
+1.8% |
| GOOGL |
7.8% |
+2.2% |
| L |
6.2% |
-7.1% |
| WMT |
6.1% |
-3.5% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+8.8% |
| HBM |
4.8% |
+12.9% |
| TRP |
4.8% |
-1.4% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
+1.2% |
| GVA |
3.7% |
+1.3% |
| GEV |
3.4% |
+1.9% |
| MU |
3.1% |
+46.7% |
| SNDK |
2.9% |
+31.6% |
| TRT |
2.6% |
-12.2% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
+1.3% |
| ROAD |
2.6% |
+7.9% |
| CTRE |
2.5% |
+4.7% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+0.7% |
| PDFS |
2.2% |
+24.5% |
| OII |
1.6% |
+2.1% |
| AMZN |
1.4% |
+1.4% |
| RY |
1.2% |
+0.5% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
+1.5% |
| HLT |
1.1% |
-1.1% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+14.5% |
| LAR |
0.8% |
+14.7% |
| INBX |
0.7% |
+5.7% |
| PL |
0.7% |
+13.0% |
| OSIS |
0.7% |
-16.4% |
| LWLG |
0.6% |
+3.2% |
| AAOI |
0.6% |
-1.4% |
| AHR |
0.6% |
+1.8% |
| EPD |
0.6% |
-0.5% |
| MO |
0.5% |
-7.8% |
| GRMN |
0.5% |
+0.2% |
| RRBI |
0.5% |
-2.1% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+12.3% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+1.1% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
-1.0% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+1.2% |
| META |
0.2% |
-1.0% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+11.1% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+3.9% |
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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