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MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
May 11, 2026 · All times ET
Regime RECOVERY Day 1
Market Snapshot · 12:55 ET
S&P 500
739.23
+0.22%
Nasdaq
712.75
+0.21%
Dow
496.04
-0.02%
Russell 2k
285.78
+0.57%
VIX
18.12
+5.41%
20Y Bond
85.61
-0.54%
Gold
432.98
-0.18%
Silver
77.04
+5.52%
Oil
140.61
+5.25%
USD
27.36
+0.05%
CNN Fear & Greed
68 Greed
wk +1 · mo +30
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bullish Sup: 715.74 Res: 740.44 RSI: 76.2
QQQ Trend: Bullish Sup: 665.57 Res: 714.59 RSI: 83.3
Econ Calendar
8 high-impact · Mon May 11 – Wed May 13 · as of 12:55 ET
Mon May 11
10:00 US Existing Home Sales (Apr) — est. 4.05M, prev. 4.01M
Tue May 12
02:00 DE German CPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.6%, prev. 0.6%
08:30 US Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2%
08:30 US CPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.6%, prev. 0.9%
08:30 US CPI (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.7%, prev. 3.3%
13:00 US 10-Year Note Auction — prev. 4.282%
Wed May 13
08:30 US PPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.5%, prev. 0.5%
10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories — prev. -2.313M
Macro Snapshot
12:58 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 3.90% -2bps
10Y Yield 4.38% -3bps
Spread +48bps Flattening
DXY 97.80 -0.23%
VIX/3M 0.86 Contango
HY OAS 6.85% +0.00%
BZ–WTI 0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
GDXJ–GLD 0.2961
$128.14 · $432.82
z +0.63 · Neutral · ρ 85%
BTC $81,686 -0.6%
ETH $2,333 -1.6%
ETH/BTC 0.0286
Sector Rotation · Today
12:58 ET
Energy
+2.40%
XLE
Materials
+1.33%
XLB
Technology
+1.15%
XLK
Industrials
+0.99%
XLI
Utilities
+0.88%
XLU
Real Estate
+0.33%
XLRE
Health Care
-0.20%
XLV
Financials
-0.20%
XLF
Cons. Discr.
-0.65%
XLY
Communication
-1.06%
XLC
Cons. Staples
-1.44%
XLP
In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a risk-on rotation into cyclical sectors, with Energy, Materials, and Technology leading, while Defensives like Cons. Staples lag.
Regime Timeline
HMM Regime Detection — SPY 90-day timeline
From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 1 (prev. close)
“The market is in a Recovery regime, having transitioned from Bull just 1 day ago, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up +0.22% and +0.21% respectively, while the Dow fell -0.02%. Worth watching is the divergence between falling Treasuries and rising oil prices amid the US-Iran deadlock, while the labor market shows resilience with Goldman and BofA delaying Fed cut calls.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — White House
Was President Trump Right About Tariffs? U.S. Exports Are Shattering Records
24/ 1h ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
Iran May Have Found a New Way to Threaten Trump’s Economy — And It’s Not Oil
24/ 18h ago
$USO$XLEDefenseEnergy Sector
For Trump, Court Loss Is Latest Twist in Ever-Shifting Tariffs
THE 1d ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 12:57 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
AMD mixed 24
“Hail Mary +$15K $ASTS”
WSB 39 pts · 5/5 subs
SPY mixed 21
“r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - May 11, 2026”
STK 4 pts · 5/5 subs
RKLB mixed 16
“The CEO ate his hat and is a fucking rocket scientist. RKLB 🚀”
WSB 227 pts · 4/5 subs
NVDA mixed 16
“$15k in 15 mins with NQ futures and NVDA 220c 5/11”
WSB 15 pts · 5/5 subs
R mixed 13
“Daily Discussion Thread for May 11, 2026”
WSB 193 pts · 5/5 subs
GPUS mixed 11
“How can the market accepts such a low forward P/E for MU?”
STK 84 pts · 3/5 subs
VOO bullish 9
“If you had $7.5k to invest tomorrow, what would you do in this current market?”
STK 316 pts · 4/5 subs
MU mixed 8
“MU to the moon - 100k gain!”
WSB 28 pts · 5/5 subs
Insider Wire
2810 Form 4s filed · 12:55 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-06 to 2026-05-11
Magnetar Financial aggressively dumps Corero Security Solutions (CRWV) holdings, while CEO Intrator also sells, ahead of earnings, amidst a flurry of executive selling in the cybersecurity sector.
Ticker Insider Value
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $164.4M
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $125.0M
SELL PWR Austin Earl C. Jr. President and CEO $120.2M
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $109.1M
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $76.3M
SELL CRWV Intrator Michael N CEO and President $39.3M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 12:58 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
UPST 33.4% 6.0d +0.4% HIGH
BYND 31.1% 4.6d +6.4% ELEVATED
SMCI 19.3% 1.8d -1.9% ELEVATED
AMC 15.4% 3.0d -24.2% ELEVATED
GME 15.1% 9.8d -3.6% ELEVATED
GVA 14.4% 7.5d +9.9% MODERATE
CVNA 13.5% 4.9d +9.1% MODERATE
RIVN 13.1% 5.3d -1.9% MODERATE
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor
8081 scanned · 73 SEC-confirmed· 8 red · 44 yellow
Ticker Struct Ignit Final Hldrs Flags Bucket
SGRY 0.44 0.85 0.65 58% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
PSNY 0.45 0.85 0.49 98% GRINDCOVERELEVDDUP? RED
MIRM 0.40 0.85 0.47 56% GRINDCOVERELEVATMReadOut RED
BTSG 0.38 0.85 0.46 87% GRINDCOVERELEV RED
RUSHB 0.35 0.85 0.45 95% GRINDCOVERELEV RED
CBIO 0.55 0.65 0.45 84% GRINDADDELEVATM* RED
IRON 0.34 0.85 0.45 55% GRINDCOVERELEVATM*NDA RED
TBPH 0.32 0.85 0.44 46% GRINDCOVERELEVNDA RED
LCID 0.55 0.10 0.55 76% PREELEVATM* YELLOW
TRN 0.13 0.85 0.43 45% IGNGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
+ 42 more yellow names not shown
Market Headlines
8 sources · 12:55 ET
Goldman, BofA Delay Fed Cut Calls After ‘Last Straw’ Jobs Data
BBG 1h ago
The strong jobs data has led to a reevaluation of the Fed's rate cut expectations, potentially keeping rates higher for longer. This could lead to a stronger USD, lower stocks, and higher yields. The upcoming CPI and retail sales data will be crucial in determining the market's direction. For now, it's essential to monitor these data points for a clearer understanding of the economic growth trajectory.
BBG Brazil’s Mastercard Rival Elo Taps Bank of America, Other Banks for US IPO 1h ago
BBG Treasuries Fall and Oil Rises on US-Iran Deadlock: Markets Wrap
The deadlock between the US and Iran has increased geopolitical risks, driving oil prices up and potentially leading to a risk-off sentiment in the market. If diplomacy prevails, oil prices could decline, and risk assets might rally. The OPEC meeting and diplomatic developments will be critical in determining the trajectory of oil prices and market sentiment.
18h ago
BBG Peru Authorizes $2 Billion New Emergency Loan for Petroperu
The Peruvian government's emergency loan to Petroperu may lead to a reaction in credit spreads, reflecting the market's assessment of the country's fiscal sustainability. If concerns about fiscal sustainability arise, credit spreads could widen, negatively impacting the market. Upcoming economic data and Petroperu's credit metrics will provide valuable insights into the situation.
3h ago
BBG US to Temporarily Lower Beef Import Tariffs, WSJ Says
The temporary lowering of beef import tariffs could boost agricultural stocks, at least in the short term. However, if trade tensions escalate, agricultural stocks might decline, and the market could react negatively. The outcome of trade negotiations and US agricultural exports data will be essential in determining the market's direction.
46m ago
BBG Bond CEO: Private Jet Demand Set to Surge 1h ago
FJ MOO Imbalance 3h ago
CNBC The Federal Reserve is quickly running out of reasons to cut interest rates 1h ago
Financial Wire
Top 5 · AI digest · 12:55 ET
FJ Fed Bids $13.8bln for 3-Year Notes
Systematic desks monitor Fed operations for liquidity clues
10m ago
FJ Trump Seeks Diplomatic Solution with Iran
Macro traders watch for de-escalation in Middle East tensions
50m ago
FJ US 6-Month Bill Yield Hits 3.615%
Short-term interest rates influence money market dynamics
1h ago
FJ Trump-Xi to Discuss Energy and Iran
Geopolitical developments impact global risk sentiment
44m ago
FJ Existing Home Sales Rise 0.2%
Housing market data informs growth and rate expectations
2h ago
Source: FinancialJuice · 31 flashes scanned
Research Digest
12:57 ET
MU $795.92 +6.6% Bullish
Composite 71 1M +53.4% 3M +63.8% 1Y +6.8% FLAT
Target $468
Micron Technology (MU) hit a record high as memory chip stocks surged, with its DRAM ETF reaching $6.5 billion. The stock has returned +53.4% in the last month and +63.8% in the last quarter. However, with a composite score of 71/100 and a trend labeled as FLAT, there's a risk that the market may be overpricing MU's growth prospects.
YHO Micron helps DRAM become the fastest ETF to hit $6.5 billion: Chart of the Day
YAH Memory chip stocks hit record highs, pharma reacts to hantavirus concerns
BAR These Stocks Are Today’s Movers: Lumentum, Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Tesla, Moderna, Circle Internet,
BE $293.79 +12.6% Bullish
Composite 74 1M +61.5% 3M +80.8% 1Y +14.6% UP
Target $188
Bloom Energy (BE) surged 90.3% over 30 days and 162.1% year to date, closing at $258.64, after beating earnings expectations last week, which led to a significant price hike. The stock's rapid growth contrasts with Brookfield Renewable's steady dividend payments. However, the market may be overreacting, given the analyst target price of $188.
MOT Why Did Bloom Energy Stock Pop Today?
ZAC Are Oils-Energy Stocks Lagging OMV (OMVKY) This Year?
SIM Is It Too Late To Consider Bloom Energy (BE) After A 90% Monthly Surge?
IDEQ $35.15 +0.0% Bullish
The Lazard International Dynamic Equity ETF (IDEQ) has outperformed peers and benchmark for a decade, converting from a mutual fund last year. Vodafone Idea shares surged over 10% despite market crash. IDEQ's holdings may be shifting, driving interest; however, specifics are unclear. Risk: Market rotation or Vodafone Idea's surge reversal could impact IDEQ's performance.
BAR What This Top International ETF Is Buying Now
MIN Vodafone Idea share price zooms over 10% despite stock market crash - Mint
BUS Voda Idea gains 5%, hits 3-month high in weak market; what's driving stock? - Business Standard
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Analyst Moves
12:58 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
AVGO Buy 53 / 4 / 0 2026-05-01
NVDA Buy 66 / 4 / 1 2026-05-01
WMT Buy 44 / 4 / 0 2026-05-01
AMZN Buy 72 / 6 / 0 2026-05-01
MSFT Buy 60 / 6 / 0 2026-05-01
GOOGL Buy 62 / 8 / 0 2026-05-01
META Buy 64 / 9 / 0 2026-05-01
AAPL Buy 39 / 13 / 2 2026-05-01
IPO Calendar
12:58 ET
Date Company Range Size
May 12 BWGC BW Industrial Holdings Inc. — $21M
May 13 FRVO Fervo Energy Co — $1.5B
May 13 GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. — $918M
May 14 CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. — $4.0B
May 14 EROK EagleRock Land, LLC — $398M
May 14 BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust … — $2.0B
May 15 RIKU RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd — $34M
Congressional Trades
3 disclosures · 14d
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
Member Ticker Type Amount
Gilbert Cisneros DASH Purchase $1,001 - $15,000
Tony Wied FIHBX Purchase $1,001 - $15,000
Maria Elvira Salazar CARR Purchase $15,001 - $50,000
Market Movers
FMP real-time
Top Gainers
OLOX +921.7% $4.66 POM +170.9% $0.20 MEHA +75.9% $0.17 JZXN +61.3% $1.46 MRAM +53.2% $41.36
Top Losers
RPGL -43.2% $0.47 LHAI -34.9% $0.86 SMX -33.4% $14.79 PTIX -32.9% $0.53 PMAX -31.7% $2.72
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 12:58 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 3,067,919 1,417,684 1,650,235
1.16
$740C 418,722 vol
SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C=1.16, suggests protective hedging ahead of potential market volatility.
TSLA 1,696,873 1,063,003 633,870
0.60
$440C 127,291 vol
TSLA: Call buying, especially 127,291 $440C, indicates bullish bets on TSLA's recovery continuation.
QQQ 1,609,991 619,033 990,958
1.60
$713C 184,008 vol
QQQ: Aggressive put buying, P/C=1.60, with $713C hot, may signal earnings-related hedges or tech sector concerns.
NVDA 1,450,089 1,022,005 428,084
0.42
$220C 357,347 vol
NVDA: Call-heavy flow, P/C=0.42, and 357,347 $220C suggest bullish positioning, possibly gamma squeeze setup.
AMD 164,837 100,610 64,227
0.64
$500C 10,085 vol
AMD: Low-volume mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with slight call bias and $500C interest.
Income Plays
12:57 ET
DELL CSP Best Quality Very High · max 3% $80B · Earnings Feb 26 · Div 1.0%
$200P 38 DTE +24.5% ann. +18.2% OTM Δ 0.16 POP 84%
Dell's stock soared 14% after Trump suggested buying the stock, following a $6.25B donation from the Dell family to 'Trump Accounts' in December.
MXL CSP Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $9B · Earnings Apr 23
$90P 38 DTE +143.0% ann. +11.9% OTM Δ 0.31 POP 69%
MaxLinear, Inc.'s stock is being driven by analyst upgrades following its latest results and insider selling, including a 35,000-share sale by Connie Kwong.
TTMI CSP Safest Very High · max 3% $17B · Earnings Apr 29
$130P 38 DTE +32.5% ann. +19.8% OTM Δ 0.17 POP 83%
TTM Technologies, Inc. ($TTMI) shares are soaring today, prompting questions if it's too late to consider the stock after its recent share price surge.
INTC CC Best Quality Very High · max 3% $633B · Earnings Apr 23
$140C 38 DTE +83.1% ann. +9.8% OTM Δ 0.09 POP 91%
Intel stock rises on reports of a second huge chip customer and the CEO's announcement of "exciting new products" with Nvidia.
MRAM CC Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $962M · Earnings Apr 29
$45C 38 DTE +209.2% ann. +7.7% OTM Δ 0.14 POP 86%
MRAM stock is surging due to a $40 million defense contract, with Everspin being a specific company mentioned as having secured such a deal.
SIMO CC Safest High · max 2% $9B · Earnings Apr 28 · Div 0.8%
$300C 38 DTE +63.1% ann. +12.1% OTM Δ 0.05 POP 95%
Silicon Motion Technology's (SIMO) stock has surged 368% over the past year, prompting questions about whether it has run too far.
Portfolio Hedge
SPY $739 · QQQ $713 · VIX 18.1
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$730P 66d 1 $15.25 $1,525 8.4%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$750P 66d 1 $23.31 $2,331 12.9%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$720P 66d 2 $12.42 $2,484 13.7%
Scenario: 1× SPY $750P 66d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario SPY Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $702 112% $98,192
Correction -10% $665 100% $97,638
Bear leg -15% $628 95% $97,084
Crash -20% $591 93% $96,531
QQQ Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$705P 66d 1 $21.89 $2,189 12.1%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$725P 66d 1 $30.82 $3,082 17.0%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$695P 66d 2 $18.35 $3,670 20.3%
Scenario: 1× QQQ $725P 66d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario QQQ Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $677 113% $97,462
Correction -10% $641 98% $96,776
Bear leg -15% $606 94% $96,089
Crash -20% $570 91% $95,403
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 12:58 ET
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 11 (MTD) · Hit rate: 30/43 · Avg return: +4.2% · YTD: +25.8%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months
Return +70.5% Ann. 89.7% Sharpe 4.11 Max DD -4.4%
Win% 90% Alpha +69.8% SPY +16.3% $100K → $170,471
Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months
Total 7,698% Ann. 24.5% Sharpe 1.41 Max DD -40.5%
Win% 68% Alpha +14.1% SPY 616% $100K → $7,798,099
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
FBLA 8.4% -0.3%
AVGO 8.0% +1.8%
GOOGL 7.8% +2.2%
L 6.2% -7.1%
WMT 6.1% -3.5%
KLAC 6.1% +8.8%
HBM 4.8% +12.9%
TRP 4.8% -1.4%
BWET 4.5% +1.2%
GVA 3.7% +1.3%
GEV 3.4% +1.9%
MU 3.1% +46.7%
SNDK 2.9% +31.6%
TRT 2.6% -12.2%
HWKN 2.6% +1.3%
ROAD 2.6% +7.9%
CTRE 2.5% +4.7%
QLTY 2.2% +0.7%
PDFS 2.2% +24.5%
OII 1.6% +2.1%
AMZN 1.4% +1.4%
RY 1.2% +0.5%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
VFLO 1.1% +1.5%
HLT 1.1% -1.1%
HWM 1.0% +14.5%
LAR 0.8% +14.7%
INBX 0.7% +5.7%
PL 0.7% +13.0%
OSIS 0.7% -16.4%
LWLG 0.6% +3.2%
AAOI 0.6% -1.4%
AHR 0.6% +1.8%
EPD 0.6% -0.5%
MO 0.5% -7.8%
GRMN 0.5% +0.2%
RRBI 0.5% -2.1%
TSLA 0.2% +12.3%
BRK.B 0.2% +1.1%
MSFT 0.2% -1.0%
LLY 0.2% +1.2%
META 0.2% -1.0%
NVDA 0.2% +11.1%
AAPL 0.2% +3.9%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
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