Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe here — free, every trading day.
MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
May 08, 2026 · All times ET
Regime RECOVERY Day 1
Market Snapshot · 10:10 ET
S&P 500
736.42
+0.66%
Nasdaq
705.22
+1.48%
Dow
496.47
+0.11%
Russell 2k
283.02
+0.27%
VIX
17.12
+0.23%
20Y Bond
86.17
+0.60%
Gold
433.66
+0.46%
Silver
72.99
+1.94%
Oil
133.79
-0.87%
USD
27.36
-0.20%
CNN Fear & Greed
68 Greed
wk +2 · mo +34
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bullish Sup: 713.01 Res: 736.89 RSI: 75.0
QQQ Trend: Bullish Sup: 660.49 Res: 705.84 RSI: 81.8
Econ Calendar
4 high-impact · Fri May 08 – Fri May 08 · as of 10:10 ET
Fri May 08
08:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2%
08:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) — est. 65K, prev. 185K
08:30 US Unemployment Rate (Apr) — est. 4.3%, prev. 4.3%
12:00 US U.S. President Trump Speaks
Macro Snapshot
10:13 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 3.92% +5bps
10Y Yield 4.41% +5bps
Spread +49bps Normal
DXY 97.84 -0.42%
VIX/3M 0.84 Contango
HY OAS 6.85% +0.08%
BZ–WTI 0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
GDXJ–GLD 0.2889
$125.39 · $434.03
z +0.17 · Neutral · ρ 86%
BTC $79,873 -0.2%
ETH $2,282 -0.4%
ETH/BTC 0.0286
Sector Rotation · Today
10:13 ET
Technology
+2.14%
XLK
Real Estate
+0.51%
XLRE
Cons. Discr.
+0.50%
XLY
Cons. Staples
+0.43%
XLP
Materials
+0.41%
XLB
Industrials
+0.07%
XLI
Energy
-0.07%
XLE
Utilities
-0.11%
XLU
Communication
-0.26%
XLC
Financials
-0.37%
XLF
Health Care
-0.70%
XLV
In today's RECOVERY regime, tech and real estate lead as growth sectors shine, while financials and healthcare lag, signaling a risk-on rotation.
Regime Timeline
HMM Regime Detection — SPY 90-day timeline
From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 1 (prev. close)
“The market is in a Recovery regime, having transitioned from Bull just 1 calendar day ago, with the S&P 500 up 0.66% and Nasdaq up 1.48% from the previous close. Worth watching is the divergence between BlackRock's view that equities aren't in a bubble and the recent 14% drop in Enhanced Games following its SPAC merger at a $1.2 billion valuation.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — White House
'Upside surprise': Job growth surges for Trump's economy
POL 36m ago
What the latest ruling on Trump’s tariffs could mean for businesses
YHO 1h ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
Trump threatens EU with ‘much higher’ tariffs if no trade deal signed by new deadline
CNBC 6h ago
$EZU$FXE$FXI$SPY
The Man Trying to Make Trump’s Tariffs Go on Forever
POL 7h ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
Trade court rules against Trump’s global tariff
THE 10h ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:12 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
AMD mixed 62
“My friends and family can never know (My portfolio)😔✊”
WSB 499 pts · 5/5 subs
AMZN mixed 21
“My friends and family can never know (My portfolio)😔✊”
WSB 499 pts · 5/5 subs
RYAN bullish 19
“I DECLARE BANKRUPCY...ON AWS MARKETSHARE - STOCK MIKE”
WSB 1858 pts · 2/5 subs
GOOGL mixed 18
“Why do we chase 10x underdogs instead of proven winners for 1x or 2x upside? $GO…”
STK 502 pts · 4/5 subs
GOOG mixed 17
“I hear that everyone’s a millionaire now - $2M”
WSB 2376 pts · 5/5 subs
META mixed 17
“I've been holding CoreWeave since more than one year but last night's earnings j…”
WSB 61 pts · 5/5 subs
R mixed 15
“Daily Discussion Thread for May 08, 2026”
WSB 69 pts · 5/5 subs
SHOT mixed 14
“U.S. and Iran trade fire in Strait of Hormuz; each claims other shot first”
WSB 3859 pts · 3/5 subs
Insider Wire
3708 Form 4s filed · 10:10 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-08
CEOs and insiders are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with notable sales in tech and energy sectors, led by CRWV and PWR executives unloading massive stakes.
Ticker Insider Value
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $147.0M
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $125.0M
SELL PWR Austin Earl C. Jr. President and CEO $120.2M
SELL CRWV Intrator Michael N CEO and President $39.3M
SELL MU MEHROTRA SANJAY President and CEO $21.5M
SELL TSLA Wilson-Thompson Kathleen Director $10.0M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 10:13 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
UPST 33.4% 6.0d +0.4% HIGH
BYND 31.1% 4.6d +6.4% ELEVATED
SMCI 19.3% 1.8d -1.9% ELEVATED
AMC 15.4% 3.0d -24.2% ELEVATED
GME 15.1% 9.8d -3.6% ELEVATED
GVA 14.4% 7.5d +9.9% MODERATE
CVNA 13.5% 4.9d +9.1% MODERATE
RIVN 13.1% 5.3d -1.9% MODERATE
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor
8080 scanned · 73 SEC-confirmed· 8 red · 45 yellow
Ticker Struct Ignit Final Hldrs Flags Bucket
SGRY 0.45 0.85 0.65 58% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
PSNY 0.45 0.85 0.49 98% GRINDCOVERELEVDDUP? RED
MIRM 0.40 0.85 0.47 56% GRINDCOVERELEVATMReadOut RED
BTSG 0.38 0.85 0.46 87% GRINDCOVERELEV RED
RUSHB 0.35 0.85 0.45 95% GRINDCOVERELEV RED
CBIO 0.55 0.65 0.45 84% GRINDADDELEVATM* RED
IRON 0.34 0.85 0.45 55% GRINDCOVERELEVATM*NDA RED
TBPH 0.32 0.85 0.44 46% GRINDCOVERELEVNDA RED
LCID 0.55 0.10 0.55 76% PREELEVATM* YELLOW
TRN 0.13 0.85 0.43 45% IGNGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
+ 43 more yellow names not shown
Market Headlines
7 sources · 10:10 ET
Nomura: When will Trump "TACO" Again? - FJElite
FJ 58m ago
The uncertainty around Trump's potential "TACO" announcement may lead to market speculation and increased volatility in equities and the USD. If perceived as a significant policy change, it could impact risk assets and potentially lead to a decline in the dollar index and an increase in commodities like crude and gold. For now, it's wise to monitor related headlines for clarification. With high uncertainty, a cautious approach might be warranted.
FJ WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: There are no signs of runaway inflation for fed to raise rates.
The White House's indication that there are no signs of runaway inflation could lead to lower expectations for rate hikes, potentially supporting equities and lowering bond yields. However, if inflation concerns resurface, rate hike expectations might increase, causing equities to decline and the USD to rise. Keep an eye on upcoming inflation data releases to gauge the Fed's future actions.
55m ago
BBG Enhanced Games Falls 14% After SPAC Merger at $1.2 Billion Value
The 14% drop in Enhanced Games following its SPAC merger may lead to a sell-off in similar SPACs and increased scrutiny of merger terms. If this event is seen as isolated, it might have limited market impact; however, if it's perceived as systemic, it could lead to a broader sell-off in tech and growth stocks. Monitoring the performance of similar SPACs will be crucial.
18m ago
BBG BlackRock's Rieder Says Equities Aren't in a Bubble, Fed on Hold
BlackRock's statement that equities aren't in a bubble and the Fed is likely to hold rates steady could provide support for equity markets and stability in bond yields. However, if a contrarian view gains traction or economic data contradicts this outlook, market volatility might increase. It's essential to watch upcoming economic data releases to assess the validity of this perspective.
28m ago
BBG Private Equity Taps Junk Market for Dividends as Exits Stall
Private equity firms tapping the junk market for dividends as exits stall may lead to increased yields or spreads in the junk bond market, potentially affecting the stock performance of related companies. If the market absorbs this issuance without issue, the impact might be limited; however, systemic stress could lead to broader credit market concerns. The performance of the junk bond market will be a key indicator to watch.
2h ago
BBG Jobs Report Locks in Fed Stalemate, PGIM's Collins Says
The jobs report's indication that the Fed's policy is likely to remain steady could lead to stability in interest rates and equities. However, any significant deviation in future economic data could adjust rate expectations and potentially lead to market volatility. Monitoring upcoming economic data releases will be crucial to understanding the Fed's future actions and market implications.
1h ago
FJ MOO Imbalance 39m ago
FJ ECB President Lagarde: fossil fuel price shocks directly fuel inflation, with immediate effect on retail energy prices 2m ago
Financial Wire
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:10 ET
FJ ECB Lagarde Warns on Energy Inflation
ECB sees fossil fuel price shocks fueling inflation
2m ago
FJ US Disables Iranian-Flagged Tankers
US military action may escalate tensions with Iran
2m ago
FJ US Economic Data Shows Resilience
US wholesale sales and inventories beat forecasts
10m ago
FJ Hassett Sees Strong Dollar, EU Trade Deal
White House adviser highlights dollar strength and trade talks
52m ago
FJ Iran Ready to Respond to Aggression
Iran warns of full force response to any provocation
43m ago
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
Research Digest
10:12 ET
INTC $116.34 +6.1% Neutral
Composite 66 1M +77.6% 3M +116.7% 1Y +439.7% FLAT
Target $80
Intel's (INTC) 33% revenue drop puts CEO Pat Gelsinger's turnaround plan in focus, with AI hopes rising but manufacturing execution and customer trust remaining key challenges. Analysts target $80, per GuruFocus.com. Execution risk threatens the turnaround.
YAH Tech-led stealth rally pushes markets to record highs
MOT Could Investing $500 a Month in One ETF Make You a Millionaire in 20 Years?
THE HubSpot downgraded, Qualcomm upgraded: Wall Street's top analyst calls
LRCX $292.09 +1.9% Bullish
Composite 70 1M +10.7% 3M +24.0% 1Y +281.7% FLAT
Target $291
Lam Research (LRCX) rallied 19.5% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly results, driven by rising orders from global foundry expansions and AI-focused chip production. The stock may benefit from potential equipment supply deals with new US fabs, including Elon Musk's Terafab Initiative. However, the market may be overestimating LRCX's growth prospects, and a potential downturn in the semiconductor industry poses a risk.
THE It’s Looking an Awful Lot Like the Tech Bubble
24/ EWT, EWY, and SOXX: The Only 3 ETFs You Need for Semiconductor Dominance
SIM Lam Research (LRCX) Is Up 19.5% After AI-Fab Orders Beat Expectations Has The Bull Case Changed?
NVDA $216.18 +2.2% Bullish
Composite 65 1M +15.0% 3M +14.1% 1Y +80.7% FLAT
Target $276
Nvidia (NVDA) ranks #7 in Cathie Wood's AI and data center stock picks, with a 15% year-to-date gain; the stock has an analyst target of $276. NVDA's recent performance shows 1M +15.0%, 3M +14.1%, and 1Y +80.7% returns. Market enthusiasm may be tempered if the stock's valuation doesn't justify its growth trajectory.
YHO CoreWeave stock sinks after forecast miss
YAH Stocks take a breather after reaching record highs
MOT Could Investing $500 a Month in One ETF Make You a Millionaire in 20 Years?
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Analyst Moves
10:13 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
AVGO Buy 53 / 4 / 0 2026-05-01
NVDA Buy 66 / 4 / 1 2026-05-01
WMT Buy 44 / 4 / 0 2026-05-01
AMZN Buy 72 / 6 / 0 2026-05-01
MSFT Buy 60 / 6 / 0 2026-05-01
GOOGL Buy 62 / 8 / 0 2026-05-01
META Buy 64 / 9 / 0 2026-05-01
AAPL Buy 39 / 13 / 2 2026-05-01
IPO Calendar
10:13 ET
Date Company Range Size
May 08 ODTX Odyssey Therapeutics, Inc. — $274M
May 08 MOBI Mobia Medical, Inc. — $184M
May 12 BWGC BW Industrial Holdings Inc. — $21M
May 13 FRVO Fervo Energy Co — $1.5B
May 13 GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. — $918M
May 14 CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. — $4.0B
May 14 EROK EagleRock Land, LLC — $398M
May 14 BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust … — $2.0B
Congressional Trades
12 disclosures · 14d
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
Member Ticker Type Amount
April Delaney TDG Purchase $1,001 - $15,000
April Delaney STE Purchase $1,001 - $15,000
April Delaney MKL Purchase $1,001 - $15,000
April Delaney PKG Purchase $1,001 - $15,000
April Delaney FBIN Sale $1,001 - $15,000
April Delaney NDAQ Purchase $1,001 - $15,000
April Delaney MORN Sale $1,001 - $15,000
April Delaney SCI Sale $1,001 - $15,000
Market Movers
FMP real-time
Top Gainers
YMAT +121.6% $0.53 AEHL +117.7% $1.11 INOD +89.2% $86.33 PHOE +70.5% $32.49 AIIO +53.7% $0.91
Top Losers
EGFFX -99.6% $0.10 EGFIX -84.8% $4.36 RKLZ -51.9% $6.17 NETG -44.2% $9.78 FWRD -33.9% $11.45
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 10:13 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 445,535 228,785 216,750
0.95
$736C 50,759 vol
SPY: Neutral flow, P/C ratio near 1, suggests no clear directional bet.
QQQ 391,724 200,657 191,067
0.95
$702C 25,451 vol
QQQ: Mixed flow, P/C ratio near 1, no clear directional signal.
TSLA 318,554 223,014 95,540
0.43
$420C 46,998 vol
TSLA: Call-heavy flow (P/C=0.43) with $420C 46,998 vol, bullish positioning.
NVDA 302,528 246,038 56,490
0.23
$215C 79,441 vol
NVDA: Extremely call-heavy flow (P/C=0.23) with $215C 79,441 vol, aggressive bullish bet.
AMD 97,433 66,366 31,067
0.47
$430C 8,531 vol
AMD: Call-heavy flow (P/C=0.47) with $430C 8,531 vol, bullish positioning.
Income Plays
10:13 ET
VRT CSP Best Quality Very High · max 3% $132B · Earnings Apr 22 · Div 0.1%
$290P 41 DTE +21.8% ann. +16.3% OTM Δ 0.20 POP 80%
Vertiv Holdings Co. ($VRT) stock jumped 28% in a month, driven by recent performance, sparking debate on whether to buy, sell, or hold.
AXTI CSP Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $8B · Earnings Apr 30
$100P 41 DTE +94.4% ann. +14.6% OTM Δ 0.34 POP 66%
AXTI stock rallied 57% in a 5-day winning streak following an earnings beat, with a new fund now offering 2x daily exposure to the stock.
BE CSP Safest High · max 2% $73B · Earnings Apr 28
$215P 21 DTE +44.5% ann. +19.9% OTM Δ 0.20 POP 80%
Bloom Energy's stock price is down 9.2-10% today, according to reports from Quiver Quantitative and MarketBeat.
RKLB CC Best Quality High · max 2% $57B · Earnings Feb 26
$100C 41 DTE +63.1% ann. +12.0% OTM Δ 0.05 POP 95%
Rocket Lab's stock surged due to a revenue beat and a record launch contract, according to Investor's Business Daily.
AAOI CC Craziest Return Low · max 1% $13B · Earnings Feb 26
$172C 21 DTE +190.5% ann. +5.1% OTM Δ 0.17 POP 83%
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) has a new auditor and two recent hires received 299 stock awards, ahead of its Q1 earnings announcement.
AGX CC Safest High · max 2% $10B · Earnings Mar 26 · Div 0.3%
$790C 41 DTE +57.4% ann. +12.7% OTM Δ 0.07 POP 93%
Maxi Investments CY Ltd has taken a position in Argan, Inc. ($AGX), according to a report by MarketBeat.
Portfolio Hedge
SPY $737 · QQQ $705 · VIX 17.2
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 17.2 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$725P 52d 1 $11.87 $1,187 8.3%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$750P 52d 1 $22.01 $2,201 15.4%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$715P 69d 2 $11.90 $2,380 12.6%
Scenario: 1× SPY $750P 52d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario SPY Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $700 118% $98,568
Correction -10% $663 102% $98,001
Bear leg -15% $626 97% $97,435
Crash -20% $589 95% $96,868
QQQ Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$700P 52d 1 $19.07 $1,907 13.4%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$720P 52d 1 $28.28 $2,828 19.9%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$690P 52d 2 $15.62 $3,124 21.9%
Scenario: 1× QQQ $720P 52d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario QQQ Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $670 118% $97,934
Correction -10% $635 100% $97,209
Bear leg -15% $599 95% $96,485
Crash -20% $564 92% $95,761
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:13 ET
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 08 (MTD) · Hit rate: 27/43 · Avg return: +2.3% · YTD: +24.1%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months
Return +70.5% Ann. 89.7% Sharpe 4.11 Max DD -4.4%
Win% 90% Alpha +69.8% SPY +16.3% $100K → $170,471
Full backtest · 2014-03–2026-04 · 146 months
Total 3,449% Ann. 34.1% Sharpe 1.82 Max DD -12.7%
Win% 69% Alpha +22.4% SPY 286% $100K → $3,549,350
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
FBLA 8.4% +0.9%
AVGO 8.0% +0.3%
GOOGL 7.8% +3.9%
L 6.2% -7.1%
WMT 6.1% -0.7%
KLAC 6.1% +7.4%
HBM 4.8% +9.0%
TRP 4.8% -2.1%
BWET 4.5% -3.1%
GVA 3.7% +2.3%
GEV 3.4% -0.7%
MU 3.1% +30.9%
SNDK 2.9% +22.5%
TRT 2.6% -13.3%
HWKN 2.6% -0.3%
ROAD 2.6% +15.7%
CTRE 2.5% +5.6%
QLTY 2.2% +1.1%
PDFS 2.2% +7.3%
OII 1.6% -1.1%
AMZN 1.4% +1.7%
RY 1.2% +1.0%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
VFLO 1.1% +1.0%
HLT 1.1% +0.4%
HWM 1.0% +14.5%
LAR 0.8% +15.2%
INBX 0.7% -3.3%
PL 0.7% +1.0%
OSIS 0.7% -15.2%
LWLG 0.6% -4.5%
AAOI 0.6% -8.5%
AHR 0.6% +1.7%
EPD 0.6% -1.2%
MO 0.5% -6.7%
GRMN 0.5% -0.3%
RRBI 0.5% +0.1%
TSLA 0.2% +9.2%
BRK.B 0.2% +0.6%
MSFT 0.2% +0.4%
LLY 0.2% -1.2%
META 0.2% +1.0%
NVDA 0.2% +9.0%
AAPL 0.2% +4.5%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Enjoy this briefing? Forward it to a colleague.
New here? Subscribe free — delivered every trading day before 10 AM ET.
MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
Quantitative edge, daily.
Subscribe · Contact · RSS · Sponsor
Unsubscribe