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Markets · Options · Signal
May 07, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:10 ET
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S&P 500
734.65
+0.11%
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Nasdaq
698.66
+0.42%
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Dow
498.18
-0.17%
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Russell 2k
284.57
-0.78%
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VIX
17.17
-1.27%
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20Y Bond
86.19
+0.12%
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Gold
435.73
+1.11%
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Silver
73.59
+4.93%
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Oil
128.13
-4.34%
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USD
27.34
-0.05%
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CNN Fear & Greed
70
Greed
wk +3 · mo +42
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 710.31 |
Res: 735.13 |
RSI: 75.8 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 655.97 |
Res: 698.67 |
RSI: 80.8 |
|
Econ Calendar |
4 high-impact · Thu May 07 – Fri May 08 · as of 10:10 ET |
| Thu May 07 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 205K, prev. 190K |
| Fri May 08 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) — est. 65K, prev. 178K |
| 08:30 |
US |
Unemployment Rate (Apr) — est. 4.3%, prev. 4.3% |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.87% |
-6bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.36% |
-7bps |
| Spread |
+49bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
97.88 |
-0.14% |
| VIX/3M |
0.84 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.77% |
-0.09% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2919
$127.19 · $435.79
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z +0.37 · Neutral · ρ 87%
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| BTC |
$80,472 |
-1.2% |
| ETH |
$2,312 |
-1.6% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0287 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
10:14 ET |
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Technology
+0.61%
XLK
|
Cons. Discr.
+0.36%
XLY
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Communication
+0.32%
XLC
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Health Care
-0.34%
XLV
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Financials
-0.37%
XLF
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Materials
-0.40%
XLB
|
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Utilities
-0.69%
XLU
|
Industrials
-0.78%
XLI
|
Cons. Staples
-0.83%
XLP
|
|
Real Estate
-1.10%
XLRE
|
Energy
-2.82%
XLE
|
In today's BULL regime, tech and consumer discretionary sectors lead, while defensives like staples and real estate lag, signaling a clear risk-on rotation.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 4 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a BULL regime for 4 days, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up +0.11% and +0.42% respectively, while the Russell 2k lagged with a -0.78% move. Worth watching is the divergence between the rally in Six Flags shares on a revenue beat and the markdowns in private equity tech holdings, particularly in software, suggesting a tension between selective growth optimism and sector-wide pessimism.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:13 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
|
AMD
mixed
96
“I hear that everyone’s a millionaire now - $2M”
WSB 1616 pts · 5/5 subs
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MU
bullish
27
“I hear that everyone’s a millionaire now - $2M”
WSB 1616 pts · 4/5 subs
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RYAN
mixed
19
“I DECLARE BANKRUPCY...ON AWS MARKETSHARE - STOCK MIKE”
WSB 1111 pts · 4/5 subs
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NVDA
bullish
19
“Amazon's Chip Business Is Bigger Than AMD, Could Soon Pass Broadcom, Intel”
WSB 281 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
GOOG
mixed
18
“I hear that everyone’s a millionaire now - $2M”
WSB 1616 pts · 5/5 subs
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AMZN
bullish
18
“Amazon's Chip Business Is Bigger Than AMD, Could Soon Pass Broadcom, Intel”
WSB 281 pts · 4/5 subs
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|
GOOGL
mixed
17
“Why do we chase 10x underdogs instead of proven winners for 1x or 2x upside? $GO…”
STK 476 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
mixed
16
“The Perpetual War”
STK 184 pts · 5/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
2949 Form 4s filed · 10:11 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-02 to 2026-05-07
Magnetar Financial and Venturo dump $372M in CRWV, while MEHROTRA SANJAY, TSLA execs also sell; no clear sector buy; notable CEO sales in tech & semi.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$147.0M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$125.0M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$53.5M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$47.5M |
| SELL |
MU |
MEHROTRA SANJAY President and CEO |
$21.5M |
| SELL |
TSLA |
Wilson-Thompson Kathleen Director |
$10.0M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:14 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
6.0d |
+0.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
31.1% |
4.6d |
+6.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.3% |
1.8d |
-1.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.4% |
3.0d |
-24.2% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.1% |
9.8d |
-3.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| GVA |
14.4% |
7.5d |
+9.9% |
MODERATE
|
| CVNA |
13.5% |
4.9d |
+9.1% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
13.1% |
5.3d |
-1.9% |
MODERATE
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8079 scanned · 73 SEC-confirmed· 6 red · 47 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| SGRY |
0.46 |
0.85 |
0.66 |
63% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| AOUT |
0.31 |
0.85 |
0.58 |
63% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ |
RED
|
| MIRM |
0.40 |
0.85 |
0.47 |
56% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATMReadOut |
RED
|
| BTSG |
0.38 |
0.85 |
0.46 |
87% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| IRON |
0.34 |
0.85 |
0.45 |
55% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM*NDA |
RED
|
| TBPH |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
46% |
GRINDCOVERELEVNDA |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| AMRX |
0.29 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
46% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| OM |
0.29 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
68% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM*ILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| CBIO |
0.55 |
0.50 |
0.41 |
84% |
GRINDELEVATM* |
YELLOW
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+ 43 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:10 ET |
Inflation Fears Are Making Linkers a Winning Bond Trade in 2026
BBG 8h ago
Inflation fears are driving investors towards inflation-indexed bonds, known as Linkers, for 2026. This implies that market participants are increasingly worried about future inflation. If these fears persist, we might see a stronger USD and higher gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Keep an eye on upcoming inflation reports and central bank meeting minutes for further clues.
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:10 ET |
| FJ |
Fed Holds Rates Amid Iran Uncertainty
Fed maintains neutral stance as Iran conflict affects inflation outlook
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2m ago |
| FJ |
Geopolitical Risk Surges on Iran Tensions
Escalating Iran conflict threatens market stability and economic growth
|
0m ago |
| FJ |
Crude Prices Impact US Inflation
Rising gasoline prices affect consumer spending capacity and inflation pressures
|
1m ago |
| FJ |
Global Economic Growth at Risk
Iran conflict and market fluctuations threaten economic growth and stability
|
18m ago |
| FJ |
Market Calm Hinges on US-Iran Deal
Prospect of US-Iran deal brings calm to markets, easing risk concerns
|
1h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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STRL
$844.03
-4.8%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 78 |
1M +109.3% |
3M +142.8% |
1Y +415.4% |
FLAT |
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) surged nearly 70% after delivering record Q1 results, sharply raising its 2026 revenue and EPS guidance, driven by strong momentum in data center and semiconductor related projects. The stock hit a 52-week high, with analyst target at $57.4. Execution risk remains as the market extrapolates growth.
|
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AMAT
$418.51
-2.4%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 66 |
1M +11.1% |
3M +41.0% |
1Y +180.1% |
FLAT |
Seaport Research initiated coverage of Applied Materials (AMAT) with a Buy rating and a $500 price target, citing the company's strong position among wafer equipment suppliers. Morgan Stanley also raised its price target to $454 from $432. AMAT's YTD returns are 58.05% as of May 5, but the market may be overlooking potential volatility in the semiconductor sector.
|
| Composite 71 |
1M +63.9% |
3M +74.1% |
1Y +7.3% |
FLAT |
Micron Technology (MU) shares have surged 108% year-to-date and 715% over the past year, driven by a memory supercycle, with CEO Sanjay Mehrotra calling it a once-in-a-generation opportunity. The stock is trading near $657, with analyst target at $468. Risk: market may be overvaluing MU's prospects, and a correction could occur if the memory supercycle ends sooner than expected.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-05-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
|
2026-05-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 07 |
HAWK
HawkEye 360, Inc.
|
— |
$478M |
| May 07 |
SUJA
SUJA LIFE, INC.
|
— |
$245M |
| May 07 |
SAGUU
Shreya Acquisition Group
|
— |
$115M |
| May 08 |
ODTX
Odyssey Therapeutics, Inc.
|
— |
$274M |
| May 08 |
MOBI
Mobia Medical, Inc.
|
— |
$184M |
| May 12 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| May 13 |
FRVO
Fervo Energy Co
|
— |
$1.5B |
| May 13 |
GMRS
GMR Solutions Inc.
|
— |
$918M |
|
Congressional Trades |
3 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Kevin Hern |
GS |
Sale |
$250,001 - $500,000 |
| Lloyd Smucker |
WFC |
Sale |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
| Lloyd Smucker |
VZ |
Sale |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
SOBR
+66.0%
$1.71
AAON
+48.9%
$146.41
ATRA
+39.6%
$7.19
HIMX
+39.3%
$17.18
XMTR
+37.4%
$77.48
Top Losers
GDC
-82.3%
$0.22
EZGO
-45.7%
$0.09
FSLY
-37.4%
$19.77
SHFS
-34.4%
$0.52
PLNT
-33.6%
$42.50
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:14 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
416,206 |
187,172 |
229,034 |
1.22
|
$735C 47,183 vol |
| SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C=1.22, suggests protective hedge or bearish bet ahead of earnings. |
| TSLA |
335,432 |
252,987 |
82,445 |
0.33
|
$410C 34,930 vol |
| TSLA: Aggressive call buying, P/C=0.33, indicates bullish positioning, targeting $410 level. |
| QQQ |
324,103 |
139,971 |
184,132 |
1.32
|
$697C 23,991 vol |
| QQQ: Mixed flow, P/C=1.32, no clear directional signal, though $697C sees interest. |
| NVDA |
163,020 |
114,323 |
48,697 |
0.43
|
$210C 35,231 vol |
| NVDA: Call-heavy flow, P/C=0.43, bullish sentiment, with $210C a focal point. |
| AMD |
44,323 |
24,761 |
19,562 |
0.79
|
$460C 1,867 vol |
| AMD: Neutral flow, P/C=0.79, no clear directional signal, low conviction. |
|
|
CELC
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$6B
· Earnings Mar 25
|
| $115P |
42 DTE |
+28.0% ann. |
+16.3% OTM |
Δ 0.21 |
POP 79% |
|
| CELC stock jumps after hours on positive breast cancer trial data, specifically the VIKTORIA-1 data, which may fuel an FDA push. |
|
AAOI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$13B
· Earnings Feb 26
|
| $137P |
15 DTE |
+142.1% ann. |
+17.4% OTM |
Δ 0.18 |
POP 82% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) stock rose 16.8% after a major Texas AI chip manufacturing grant, according to an article on simplywall.st. |
|
MXL
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
|
$7B
· Earnings Apr 23
|
| $65P |
42 DTE |
+69.5% ann. |
+20.0% OTM |
Δ 0.23 |
POP 77% |
|
| MaxLinear's stock has risen 58% over a 6-day period, with today's price up 14%, amid demonstrations of its Panther V for AI data centers. |
|
INTC
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$566B
· Earnings Apr 23
|
| $120C |
22 DTE |
+92.6% ann. |
+7.2% OTM |
Δ 0.10 |
POP 90% |
|
| Intel's stock surges amid reports of a potential deal with Apple, while also seeing a 235.1x minute spike in insider activity. |
|
AAOI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$13B
· Earnings Feb 26
|
| $178C |
22 DTE |
+225.5% ann. |
+5.1% OTM |
Δ 0.17 |
POP 83% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) stock rose 16.8% after a major Texas AI chip manufacturing grant, according to an article on simplywall.st. |
|
BE
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$80B
· Earnings Apr 28
|
| $320C |
42 DTE |
+73.4% ann. |
+13.4% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Bloom Energy's stock price has seen a barrage of price target hikes, with one analyst raising it by 134%, following the company's stellar Q1. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $735 · QQQ $699 · VIX 17.2 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 17.2 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$725P |
53d |
1 |
$12.33 |
$1,233 |
8.5% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$745P |
53d |
1 |
$20.20 |
$2,020 |
13.9% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$715P |
70d |
2 |
$12.31 |
$2,462 |
12.8% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $745P 53d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$698 |
111% |
$98,443 |
| Correction -10% |
$661 |
99% |
$97,866 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$624 |
95% |
$97,289 |
| Crash -20% |
$588 |
93% |
$96,712 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$695P |
53d |
1 |
$19.34 |
$1,934 |
13.3% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$715P |
53d |
1 |
$28.79 |
$2,879 |
19.8% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$680P |
70d |
2 |
$17.39 |
$3,478 |
18.1% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $715P 53d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$664 |
121% |
$98,006 |
| Correction -10% |
$629 |
102% |
$97,249 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$594 |
95% |
$96,492 |
| Crash -20% |
$559 |
92% |
$95,735 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:14 ET
|
|
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 07 (MTD) · Hit rate: 27/43 · Avg return: +1.3% · YTD: +22.3%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+70.5% |
Ann. |
89.7% |
Sharpe |
4.11 |
Max DD |
-4.4% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+69.8% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$170,471 |
| Full backtest · 2014-03–2026-04 · 146 months |
| Total |
3,449% |
Ann. |
34.1% |
Sharpe |
1.82 |
Max DD |
-12.7% |
| Win% |
69% |
Alpha |
+22.4% |
SPY |
286% |
$100K → |
$3,549,350 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| FBLA |
8.4% |
+0.7% |
| AVGO |
8.0% |
-0.4% |
| GOOGL |
7.8% |
+3.0% |
| L |
6.2% |
-6.4% |
| WMT |
6.1% |
-1.5% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+2.5% |
| HBM |
4.8% |
+6.9% |
| TRP |
4.8% |
-3.2% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
-4.7% |
| GVA |
3.7% |
+1.2% |
| GEV |
3.4% |
+2.0% |
| MU |
3.1% |
+23.4% |
| SNDK |
2.9% |
+14.9% |
| TRT |
2.6% |
-11.9% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
-0.9% |
| ROAD |
2.6% |
+5.9% |
| CTRE |
2.5% |
-0.4% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+1.4% |
| PDFS |
2.2% |
+8.2% |
| OII |
1.6% |
-4.0% |
| AMZN |
1.4% |
+2.0% |
| RY |
1.2% |
+1.1% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
+1.4% |
| HLT |
1.1% |
+0.5% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+14.8% |
| LAR |
0.8% |
+13.7% |
| INBX |
0.7% |
+3.2% |
| PL |
0.7% |
+0.2% |
| OSIS |
0.7% |
-16.5% |
| LWLG |
0.6% |
-7.9% |
| AAOI |
0.6% |
-9.0% |
| AHR |
0.6% |
-1.7% |
| EPD |
0.6% |
-1.8% |
| MO |
0.5% |
-6.8% |
| GRMN |
0.5% |
+1.6% |
| RRBI |
0.5% |
+1.7% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+4.9% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
+2.5% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+1.8% |
| META |
0.2% |
+2.2% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+6.8% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+3.9% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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