Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe here — free, every trading day.
MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
May 06, 2026 · All times ET
Regime BULL Day 3
Market Snapshot · 10:11 ET
S&P 500
729.85
+0.84%
Nasdaq
689.78
+1.20%
Dow
497.50
+0.92%
Russell 2k
284.05
+0.53%
VIX
17.04
-1.96%
20Y Bond
86.00
+0.67%
Gold
432.26
+3.34%
Silver
69.98
+6.18%
Oil
134.47
-6.73%
USD
27.34
-0.56%
CNN Fear & Greed
69 Greed
wk +6 · mo +46
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bullish Sup: 707.37 Res: 729.97 RSI: 74.0
QQQ Trend: Bullish Sup: 651.25 Res: 690.52 RSI: 78.8
Econ Calendar
6 high-impact · Wed May 06 – Fri May 08 · as of 10:11 ET
Wed May 06
08:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) — est. 118K, prev. 61K
10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories — est. -3.400M, prev. -6.234M
Thu May 07
08:30 US Initial Jobless Claims — est. 205K, prev. 189K
Fri May 08
08:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2%
08:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) — est. 73K, prev. 178K
08:30 US Unemployment Rate (Apr) — est. 4.3%, prev. 4.3%
Macro Snapshot
10:14 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 3.93% -2bps
10Y Yield 4.43% -2bps
Spread +50bps Normal
DXY 97.96 -0.53%
VIX/3M 0.84 Contango
HY OAS 6.86% -0.02%
BZ–WTI 0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
GDXJ–GLD 0.2860
$123.62 · $432.30
z -0.00 · Neutral · ρ 87%
BTC $81,372 +0.6%
ETH $2,356 -0.2%
ETH/BTC 0.0290
Sector Rotation · Today
10:14 ET
Materials
+1.60%
XLB
Industrials
+1.45%
XLI
Communication
+1.33%
XLC
Technology
+1.30%
XLK
Real Estate
+1.12%
XLRE
Cons. Discr.
+1.02%
XLY
Financials
+0.80%
XLF
Health Care
+0.27%
XLV
Cons. Staples
+0.12%
XLP
Utilities
-1.35%
XLU
Energy
-4.34%
XLE
In today's Bull regime, cyclical sectors like Materials and Industrials lead, while Energy and Utilities lag, signaling a clear risk-on rotation.
Regime Timeline
HMM Regime Detection — SPY 90-day timeline
From the Desk · BULL Day 3 (prev. close)
“The HMM model classifies the current market as BULL, in its 3rd day of this regime, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.84% and 1.20% respectively, with the Dow and Russell 2k also up. Worth watching is the divergence between falling oil prices on Iran deal progress and Fed officials' comments on underlying inflation demands attention, as expressed by Musalem, even as Europe's bond market sees a record day on a worsening rates outlook.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — White House
US industries, trade groups split over Trump's tariff probe on excess factory capacity
RTR 19h ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
ICE's immigration crackdown isn't helping American jobs. It's actively killing them
FOR 20h ago
$SPYConsumerRetail
‘A deal is a deal’: Von der Leyen fires back at Trump over auto tariff threat
POL 1d ago
$F$FXI$GM$SPY
Trump Tries to Downplay Economic Effects of the Iran War
THE 1d ago
$USO$XLEDefense
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:13 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
AMD mixed 59
“Me w $15k of OTM AMD weeklies waiting for open”
WSB 610 pts · 5/5 subs
MU mixed 26
“Finally in the green after ~10yrs”
WSB 4139 pts · 4/5 subs
NVDA bullish 20
“Gains (QQQ + AMD + MU)”
WSB 469 pts · 5/5 subs
RYAN bullish 19
“$ARX Thesis | Disguised Growth AI Play Within Insurance (116% Upside)”
STK 1 pts · 3/5 subs
DOCN bullish 15
“Gambling my 401k/Roth from 10k -> $2M ($DOCN & others)”
WSB 1268 pts · 2/5 subs
MSTR mixed 14
“MSTR posts loss of $38.25 per share. Announces the end of their HODL strategy”
WSB 3169 pts · 3/5 subs
PLTR mixed 13
“Palantir Q1 revenue jumps 85% to record on booming US business”
STK 225 pts · 5/5 subs
BRO mixed 11
“$ARX Thesis | Disguised Growth AI Play Within Insurance (116% Upside)”
STK 1 pts · 5/5 subs
Insider Wire
2936 Form 4s filed · 10:11 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-01 to 2026-05-06
Executives and directors are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with a flurry of insider selling across tech and consumer sectors, led by CEOs and strategists.
Ticker Insider Value
SELL MU MEHROTRA SANJAY President and CEO $21.5M
SELL TSLA Wilson-Thompson Kathleen Director $10.0M
SELL CRWV Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer $8.7M
SELL SNOW Speiser Michael L Director $7.2M
SELL MU RAY MICHAEL CHARLES SVP, Chief Legal Officer $4.1M
SELL ROKU Collier Charles President, Roku Media $2.6M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 10:14 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
CVNA 67.5% 4.9d +9.1% ELEVATED
UPST 33.4% 6.0d +0.4% HIGH
BYND 31.1% 4.6d +6.4% ELEVATED
SMCI 19.3% 1.8d -1.9% ELEVATED
AMC 15.4% 3.0d -24.2% ELEVATED
GME 15.1% 9.8d -3.6% ELEVATED
GVA 14.4% 7.5d +9.9% MODERATE
RIVN 13.1% 5.3d -1.9% MODERATE
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor
8079 scanned · 74 SEC-confirmed· 8 red · 46 yellow
Ticker Struct Ignit Final Hldrs Flags Bucket
SGRY 0.46 0.85 0.66 63% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
ODD 0.35 0.85 0.60 71% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
AOUT 0.31 0.85 0.58 63% PREGRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ RED
PSNY 0.45 0.85 0.49 98% GRINDCOVERELEVDDUP? RED
MIRM 0.40 0.85 0.47 56% GRINDCOVERELEVATMReadOut RED
RUSHB 0.35 0.85 0.45 92% GRINDCOVERELEV RED
IRON 0.34 0.85 0.45 55% GRINDCOVERELEVATM*NDA RED
TBPH 0.32 0.85 0.44 46% GRINDCOVERELEVNDA RED
LCID 0.55 0.10 0.55 76% PREELEVATM* YELLOW
OM 0.29 0.85 0.43 68% GRINDCOVERELEVATM*ILLIQ YELLOW
+ 44 more yellow names not shown
Market Headlines
8 sources · 10:11 ET
Europe’s Bond Market Set for Record Day as Rates Outlook Worsens
BBG 3h ago
Europe's bond market is poised for a record day as the outlook for interest rates worsens, implying a potential sell-off in European bonds and higher yields. This could lead to weakness in European equities, particularly in interest-rate sensitive sectors. Keep an eye on ECB communication and economic data releases for confirmation of a hawkish shift.
BBG Poland Holds Rates as Iran Energy Shock Stokes Inflation
Poland's decision to hold interest rates steady, despite Iran's energy shock stoking inflation, suggests that the central bank is prioritizing inflation concerns. This could lead to a strengthening of the Polish zloty and weakness in Polish equities. Monitor global oil prices and Polish inflation data for further clues.
1h ago
FJ JPMorgan: Barrel-proof Earnings, Bad Breadh & Supercycle Trades. Squeeze Risk via call ratio/fly on EU Equities - FJElite 1h ago
CNBC Dow rises 400 points as oil retreats on Iran deal progress; AMD jumps after earnings: Live updates
The Dow's 400-point surge, fueled by oil's retreat on Iran deal progress, indicates that equities are sensitive to geopolitical developments. As oil prices decline, expect sectors sensitive to energy costs to rally. Keep an eye on EIA inventory data and Iran deal negotiations for potential market-moving updates.
2m ago
FJ Fed's Musalem: Beyond tariff and oil shocks, underlying inflation demands attention.
The Fed's Musalem is highlighting the importance of underlying inflation pressures, which could lead to a more hawkish monetary policy stance. This might result in higher US yields and a stronger USD, potentially weighing on US equities. Watch US inflation data and Fed speeches for further guidance.
33m ago
YHO Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow climb on rising hopes for Iran peace, upbeat tech earnings
Rising hopes for an Iran peace deal are boosting the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow, as decreased geopolitical risks can lead to lower oil prices and higher equities. As the situation unfolds, monitor economic data releases and Iran peace deal negotiations for potential market impacts.
14h ago
FT ‘Worst’ still ahead as oil price swings darken global trade outlook 10h ago
BBG Iran War Boosts Russia’s April Oil Tax Revenue to Six-Month High 47m ago
Financial Wire
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:11 ET
FJ Fed Holds Neutral Stance
Fed's Musalem signals policy is neutral or mildly supportive
32m ago
FJ Inflation Risks Rising
Fed's Musalem warns inflation risks are increasing
33m ago
FJ Iran-US Tensions Ease
France and US discuss separate Hormuz Strait talks
25m ago
FJ Rate Uncertainty Ahead
Fed's Musalem sees plausible scenarios for rate hikes or cuts
31m ago
FJ Global Economic Uncertainty
G-7 ministers aim to boost supply chain resilience
52m ago
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
Research Digest
10:13 ET
DELL $221.04 +2.2% Bullish
Composite 71 1M +21.7% 3M +77.3% 1Y +129.2% FLAT
Target $183
Dell Technologies' stock price has climbed 36.5% to $211.05, driven by solid quarterly results, and its collaboration with Trust3 AI to offer a secure data lakehouse infrastructure for regulated industries. The stock has outpaced the broader market over the past year, with a 1-year return of 129.2%. However, analyst target price is $183, indicating potential downside.
MT Sector Update: Energy Stocks Fall Pre-Bell Wednesday
BAR Dell Technologies Stock: Analyst Estimates & Ratings
SIM Dell Targets Regulated AI Growth With Trust3 Data Governance Integration
AMAT $420.91 +2.5% Bullish
Composite 66 1M +15.9% 3M +38.0% 1Y +165.7% FLAT
Target $433
Applied Materials (AMAT) agreed to acquire NEXX from ASMPT Limited, expanding its advanced packaging tools for AI chipmaking with no regulatory approvals required. The deal adds panel-level advanced packaging capabilities to AMAT's portfolio. AMAT's earnings surprise history is impressive, but the market may be mispricing the sustainability of its growth.
SIM Applied Materials Expands AI Packaging With NEXX Deal As Stock Surges
ZAC Advanced Energy Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y
ZAC ACM Research to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Analyst Moves
10:14 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
AVGO Buy 53 / 4 / 0 2026-05-01
NVDA Buy 66 / 4 / 1 2026-05-01
WMT Buy 44 / 4 / 0 2026-05-01
AMZN Buy 72 / 6 / 0 2026-05-01
MSFT Buy 60 / 6 / 0 2026-05-01
GOOGL Buy 62 / 8 / 0 2026-05-01
META Buy 64 / 9 / 0 2026-05-01
AAPL Buy 39 / 13 / 2 2026-05-01
IPO Calendar
10:14 ET
Date Company Range Size
May 06 REA Rare Earths Americas, Inc. — $61M
May 06 VECAU Vernal Capital Acquisition Corp. — $115M
May 07 HAWK HawkEye 360, Inc. — $478M
May 07 SUJA SUJA LIFE, INC. — $245M
May 08 ODTX Odyssey Therapeutics, Inc. — $274M
May 08 MOBI Mobia Medical, Inc. — $184M
May 12 BWGC BW Industrial Holdings Inc. — $21M
May 13 FRVO Fervo Energy Co — $1.5B
Congressional Trades
2 disclosures · 14d
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
Member Ticker Type Amount
Lloyd Smucker VZ Sale $1,001 - $15,000
Lloyd Smucker WFC Sale $15,001 - $50,000
Market Movers
FMP real-time
Top Gainers
OSS +45.5% $14.22 AHMA +44.6% $1.59 GCTK +40.4% $1.02 BLMN +39.1% $8.02 APADU +38.9% $16.61
Top Losers
EZGO -70.2% $0.57 IPEXR -48.3% $0.31 AMPGZ -44.3% $0.05 PRIM -43.3% $115.01 SMCZ -35.0% $16.99
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 10:14 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 557,298 297,272 260,026
0.87
$730C 69,227 vol
SPY: Call-heavy flow with $730C hot, suggests bullish positioning in a strong market.
QQQ 373,963 179,622 194,341
1.08
$690C 30,473 vol
QQQ: Elevated P/C ratio of 1.08, mixed flow, no clear directional signal.
NVDA 216,861 167,465 49,396
0.29
$202C 58,607 vol
NVDA: Aggressive call buying, P/C of 0.29, bullish bet with $202C leading the way.
AMD 188,851 112,277 76,574
0.68
$400C 8,380 vol
AMD: Call-heavy flow with $400C hot, indicates bullish positioning, possibly earnings play.
TSLA 178,650 123,590 55,060
0.45
$390C 26,536 vol
TSLA: Call-heavy flow with $390C leading, suggests bullish bet in a strong market.
Income Plays
10:13 ET
WDC CSP Best Quality Very High · max 3% $158B · Earnings Apr 30 · Div 0.1%
$395P 16 DTE +31.8% ann. +15.6% OTM Δ 0.16 POP 84%
Western Digital's stock is influenced by its holding of 1.04M Sandisk shares after a stock swap, according to recent market developments.
AAOI CSP Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $14B · Earnings Feb 26
$160P 16 DTE +229.6% ann. +10.9% OTM Δ 0.30 POP 70%
Applied Optoelectronics is expanding US manufacturing to meet AI data center demand, driving interest in the stock ahead of Q1 earnings.
BE CSP Safest High · max 2% $81B · Earnings Apr 28
$235P 16 DTE +49.5% ann. +20.0% OTM Δ 0.16 POP 84%
Bloom Energy Corporation $BE shares have been bought by Strs Ohio, according to a report by MarketBeat.
MU CC Best Quality Very High · max 3% $720B · Earnings Mar 18 · Div 0.1%
$700C 23 DTE +85.6% ann. +7.0% OTM Δ 0.12 POP 88%
Micron stock is surging, hitting a new intraday record high, with call options showing annual returns up to 53.5% for 43-day trades.
PRIM CC Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $6B · Earnings Feb 23 · Div 0.2%
$130C 43 DTE +530.9% ann. +8.5% OTM Δ 0.14 POP 86%
PRIM stock fell 28% premarket due to the release of its Q1 2026 earnings, causing a significant decline in its stock price.
STX CC Safest High · max 2% $171B · Earnings Apr 28 · Div 0.4%
$870C 43 DTE +48.3% ann. +13.8% OTM Δ 0.05 POP 95%
Seagate Technology Holdings' stock has risen 33% with a 5-day winning streak, according to Trefis.
Portfolio Hedge
SPY $730 · QQQ $690 · VIX 17.0
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 17.0 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$720P 54d 1 $12.19 $1,219 8.2%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$745P 54d 1 $22.39 $2,239 15.1%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$710P 71d 2 $12.22 $2,444 12.6%
Scenario: 1× SPY $745P 54d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario SPY Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $694 121% $98,653
Correction -10% $657 103% $98,053
Bear leg -15% $621 98% $97,453
Crash -20% $584 95% $96,854
QQQ Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$685P 54d 1 $18.45 $1,845 12.5%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$705P 54d 1 $27.55 $2,755 18.6%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$675P 54d 2 $15.09 $3,018 20.4%
Scenario: 1× QQQ $705P 54d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario QQQ Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $655 117% $97,970
Correction -10% $621 99% $97,168
Bear leg -15% $586 93% $96,367
Crash -20% $552 90% $95,566
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:14 ET
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 06 (MTD) · Hit rate: 27/43 · Avg return: +1.0% · YTD: +23.0%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months
Return +70.5% Ann. 89.7% Sharpe 4.11 Max DD -4.4%
Win% 90% Alpha +69.8% SPY +16.3% $100K → $170,471
Full backtest · 2014-03–2026-04 · 146 months
Total 3,449% Ann. 34.1% Sharpe 1.82 Max DD -12.7%
Win% 69% Alpha +22.4% SPY 286% $100K → $3,549,350
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
FBLA 8.4% +0.7%
AVGO 8.0% +1.0%
GOOGL 7.8% +2.3%
L 6.2% -3.9%
WMT 6.1% -1.1%
KLAC 6.1% +2.6%
HBM 4.8% +7.2%
TRP 4.8% -0.7%
BWET 4.5% +5.6%
GVA 3.7% +1.7%
GEV 3.4% +1.6%
MU 3.1% +19.3%
SNDK 2.9% +16.5%
TRT 2.6% -9.7%
HWKN 2.6% -1.8%
ROAD 2.6% +6.0%
CTRE 2.5% +0.4%
QLTY 2.2% +1.0%
PDFS 2.2% +4.8%
OII 1.6% -1.9%
AMZN 1.4% +1.7%
RY 1.2% +0.7%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
VFLO 1.1% +1.0%
HLT 1.1% -0.4%
HWM 1.0% +4.5%
LAR 0.8% +7.0%
INBX 0.7% +3.4%
PL 0.7% +1.6%
OSIS 0.7% -18.8%
LWLG 0.6% -7.6%
AAOI 0.6% -3.6%
AHR 0.6% -1.3%
EPD 0.6% -1.1%
MO 0.5% -4.1%
GRMN 0.5% -1.4%
RRBI 0.5% +1.1%
TSLA 0.2% +0.4%
BRK.B 0.2% -0.8%
MSFT 0.2% -0.8%
LLY 0.2% +2.9%
META 0.2% +0.2%
NVDA 0.2% +3.4%
AAPL 0.2% +2.2%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Enjoy this briefing? Forward it to a colleague.
New here? Subscribe free — delivered every trading day before 10 AM ET.
MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
Quantitative edge, daily.
Subscribe · Contact · RSS · Sponsor
Unsubscribe