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Markets · Options · Signal
May 04, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:10 ET
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S&P 500
720.22
-0.06%
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Nasdaq
674.90
+0.11%
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Dow
492.48
-0.51%
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Russell 2k
279.72
+0.16%
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VIX
17.49
+2.94%
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20Y Bond
85.16
-0.53%
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Gold
418.17
-1.18%
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Silver
66.72
-2.30%
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Oil
143.71
+0.64%
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USD
27.45
+0.13%
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CNN Fear & Greed
66
Greed
wk -2 · mo +42
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 701.56 |
Res: 724.87 |
RSI: 70.8 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 642.51 |
Res: 675.97 |
RSI: 75.2 |
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Econ Calendar |
7 high-impact · Tue May 05 – Wed May 06 · as of 10:10 ET |
| Tue May 05 |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) — est. 51.3, prev. 51.3 |
| 10:00 |
US |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) — est. 53.8, prev. 54.0 |
| 10:00 |
US |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Apr) — prev. 70.7 |
| 10:00 |
US |
JOLTS Job Openings (Mar) — est. 6.870M, prev. 6.882M |
| 10:00 |
US |
New Home Sales (Mar) — est. 1K, prev. 587K |
| Wed May 06 |
| 08:15 |
US |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) — est. 90K, prev. 62K |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — prev. -6.234M |
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| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.88% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.39% |
-1bps |
| Spread |
+51bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
98.20 |
+0.21% |
| VIX/3M |
0.86 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.87% |
+0.01% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
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z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2738
$114.50 · $418.19
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z -0.75 · Neutral · ρ 87%
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| BTC |
$78,602 |
+0.1% |
| ETH |
$2,331 |
+0.4% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0297 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
10:13 ET |
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Technology
+0.82%
XLK
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Utilities
+0.60%
XLU
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Financials
+0.10%
XLF
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Energy
+0.02%
XLE
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Real Estate
-0.01%
XLRE
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Industrials
-0.03%
XLI
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Cons. Discr.
-0.03%
XLY
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Cons. Staples
-0.06%
XLP
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Health Care
-0.17%
XLV
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Communication
-0.40%
XLC
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Materials
-0.55%
XLB
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In today's BULL regime, tech and utilities lead as defensives and growth outperform, while cyclicals like Materials lag, indicating a nuanced risk-on posture.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 1 (prev. close)
“The market has transitioned into a BULL regime after 1 day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up slightly overnight, while the Dow and Russell 2k diverged with moves of -0.51% and +0.16%, respectively. Worth watching is the tension between rising oil prices on Hormuz risks and the relatively muted VIX, even as the IEA reports significant gas waste in the region.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:12 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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RYAN
bullish
27
“GameStop Is Offering to Buy eBay for $56 Billion”
STK 1258 pts · 3/5 subs
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NVDA
bullish
22
“Another 10,000% gain - INTC”
WSB 328 pts · 5/5 subs
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GME
bullish
21
“GameStop Is Offering to Buy eBay for $56 Billion”
STK 1258 pts · 5/5 subs
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PLTR
bearish
17
“Steve Madden shoes (SHOO) outperformed NVDA, PLTR, AMZN, MSFT and TSLA”
WSB 350 pts · 4/5 subs
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MU
bullish
17
“Every Layer of the AI Money Printer Got Front-Run. Except One.”
WSB 1805 pts · 4/5 subs
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INTC
mixed
17
“Best Trade EVER”
WSB 840 pts · 4/5 subs
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SNDK
mixed
16
“I don't even know why I sold..”
WSB 60 pts · 4/5 subs
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META
mixed
13
“$ARE Alexandria Real Estate is the best positioned REITs for the upcoming Biotec…”
WSB 57 pts · 5/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1857 Form 4s filed · 10:10 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-29 to 2026-05-04
CRWV executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, while AVLN sees insider buying, amidst a flurry of activity in the fintech and tech sectors.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$40.9M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Intrator Michael N CEO and President |
$32.8M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$31.3M |
| BUY |
AVLN |
SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT… Insider |
$10.0M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$8.7M |
| SELL |
CVNA |
JENKINS MARK W. Chief Financial Officer |
$4.9M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:13 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| CVNA |
67.5% |
4.9d |
+9.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| UPST |
33.4% |
6.0d |
+0.4% |
HIGH
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| BYND |
31.1% |
4.6d |
+6.4% |
ELEVATED
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| SMCI |
19.3% |
1.8d |
-1.9% |
ELEVATED
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| AMC |
15.4% |
3.0d |
-24.2% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.1% |
9.8d |
-3.6% |
ELEVATED
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| GVA |
14.4% |
7.5d |
+9.9% |
MODERATE
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| RIVN |
13.1% |
5.3d |
-1.9% |
MODERATE
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8075 scanned · 84 SEC-confirmed· 6 red · 57 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| SGRY |
0.46 |
0.85 |
0.66 |
63% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| JYNT |
0.40 |
0.85 |
0.62 |
53% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ |
RED
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| RUSHB |
0.35 |
0.85 |
0.45 |
92% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| IRON |
0.34 |
0.85 |
0.45 |
55% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM*NDA |
RED
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| SEB |
0.33 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
37% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| TBPH |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
46% |
GRINDCOVERELEVNDA |
RED
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| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
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| NNI |
0.36 |
0.65 |
0.50 |
69% |
PREGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
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| AMCX |
0.31 |
0.65 |
0.48 |
47% |
PREGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
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| SKYH |
0.25 |
0.85 |
0.41 |
68% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
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+ 53 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:10 ET |
More than double the gas stuck in Hormuz is wasted each year, IEA says
FT 9h ago
The revelation that more than double the gas stuck in Hormuz is wasted each year, as reported by the IEA, could lead to increased scrutiny of companies involved in gas production or transportation in the region. This might result in mild strength in gas prices due to concerns over supply chain inefficiencies. Investors should monitor for specific numbers on wasted gas and reactions from major gas producers or consumers.
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:10 ET |
| FJ |
Iran-US Tensions Escalate in Hormuz
Escalating tensions in Hormuz Strait raise concerns about crude supply and regional conflict.
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1h ago |
| FJ |
US Treasury Secretary on Iran Sanctions
US Treasury Secretary indicates China buying 90% of Iranian energy, signaling potential easing of sanctions.
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58m ago |
| FJ |
ECB Officials Cautious on Market Valuations
ECB officials express concerns about high market valuations and potential war shock impact on inflation.
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1h ago |
| FJ |
Hormuz Strait Shipping Disrupted
Explosion and fire incidents near Hormuz Strait disrupt shipping, prompting US escort plans.
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30m ago |
| FJ |
Fed Funds Rate Holds Steady
Effective Fed Funds Rate remains at 3.64%, indicating no change in monetary policy.
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1h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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DELL
$209.92
-0.1%
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Bullish
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| Composite 69 |
1M +20.5% |
3M +76.4% |
1Y +128.6% |
FLAT |
Dell Technologies (DELL) shares surged 28% in April, outpacing peers in AI server hardware, driven by strong demand; analyst target price is $168. The stock's recent performance may indicate a potential breakout. However, concerns around margin pressure and cash cycle issues in the industry could temper investor optimism.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
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2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
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2026-05-01 |
| TRP |
Buy |
16 / 8 / 1
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2026-05-01 |
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| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 06 |
REA
Rare Earths Americas, Inc.
|
— |
$61M |
| May 07 |
HAWK
HawkEye 360, Inc.
|
— |
$478M |
| May 07 |
SUJA
SUJA LIFE, INC.
|
— |
$245M |
| May 12 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| May 15 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
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Congressional Trades |
2 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Lloyd Smucker |
WFC |
Sale |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
| Lloyd Smucker |
VZ |
Sale |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
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Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
CNSP
+290.7%
$9.03
HTCO
+77.1%
$13.99
PN
+73.6%
$4.97
MNDR
+64.2%
$1.56
GBTG
+58.2%
$9.38
Top Losers
XNDU
-56.7%
$15.65
IPEXR
-48.6%
$0.36
ORGN
-43.2%
$1.51
XXII
-37.3%
$0.86
AKAN
-35.9%
$36.59
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Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:13 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
397,018 |
163,306 |
233,712 |
1.43
|
$720C 31,969 vol |
| SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C=1.43, suggests protective hedge or bearish bet. |
| QQQ |
249,959 |
110,258 |
139,701 |
1.27
|
$675C 21,768 vol |
| QQQ: Moderate put bias, P/C=1.27, mixed flow, no clear directional signal. |
| NVDA |
243,182 |
189,565 |
53,617 |
0.28
|
$202C 66,776 vol |
| NVDA: Aggressive call buying, P/C=0.28, hottest $202C strike, bullish bet. |
| TSLA |
187,928 |
123,110 |
64,818 |
0.53
|
$400C 22,098 vol |
| TSLA: Call-heavy flow, P/C=0.53, $400C strike active, bullish positioning. |
| AMD |
38,005 |
18,581 |
19,424 |
1.05
|
$360C 3,272 vol |
| AMD: Neutral P/C=1.05, mixed flow, no clear directional signal. |
|
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VRT
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$126B
· Earnings Apr 22
· Div 0.1%
|
| $280P |
18 DTE |
+24.3% ann. |
+15.4% OTM |
Δ 0.15 |
POP 85% |
|
| PFA Pension Forsikringsaktieselskab recently acquired 196,012 shares of Vertiv Holdings Co., potentially influencing VRT's stock price. |
|
AAOI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$15B
· Earnings Feb 26
|
| $160P |
18 DTE |
+186.3% ann. |
+13.3% OTM |
Δ 0.29 |
POP 71% |
|
| Kornitzer Capital Management Inc. KS sold 10,082 shares of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. ($AAOI), according to a report by MarketBeat. |
|
WDC
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
|
$151B
· Earnings Apr 30
· Div 0.1%
|
| $350P |
45 DTE |
+29.5% ann. |
+19.8% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| Western Digital's stock is falling despite beating earnings estimates, with the company reporting a quarterly revenue of $3.34B. |
|
MU
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$665B
· Earnings Mar 18
· Div 0.1%
|
| $630C |
45 DTE |
+53.8% ann. |
+11.4% OTM |
Δ 0.10 |
POP 90% |
|
| Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) has CSP opportunities with annualized returns ranging from 25.3% to 43.5% on various strike prices and expiration dates. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$6B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $105C |
25 DTE |
+200.9% ann. |
+5.1% OTM |
Δ 0.20 |
POP 80% |
|
| AXTI stock is rallying after the company reported an earnings beat, with a strong forward outlook driving the surge to new all-time highs. |
|
ONTO
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$15B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $340C |
45 DTE |
+46.1% ann. |
+13.7% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Stifel reiterated its stock rating for Onto Innovation ahead of the company's upcoming earnings report, according to Investing.com. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $721 · QQQ $676 · VIX 17.3 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 17.3 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$715P |
56d |
1 |
$13.56 |
$1,356 |
8.8% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$735P |
56d |
1 |
$21.98 |
$2,198 |
14.3% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$700P |
73d |
2 |
$12.06 |
$2,412 |
12.1% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $735P 56d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$685 |
117% |
$98,544 |
| Correction -10% |
$649 |
101% |
$97,899 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$613 |
96% |
$97,255 |
| Crash -20% |
$577 |
93% |
$96,611 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$675P |
56d |
1 |
$19.27 |
$1,927 |
12.6% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$690P |
56d |
1 |
$26.16 |
$2,616 |
17.1% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$661P |
56d |
2 |
$14.47 |
$2,894 |
18.9% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $690P 56d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$642 |
113% |
$97,928 |
| Correction -10% |
$608 |
96% |
$97,057 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$574 |
91% |
$96,186 |
| Crash -20% |
$541 |
88% |
$95,316 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:13 ET
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|
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 04 (MTD) · Hit rate: 16/39 · Avg return: +0.1% · YTD: +23.1%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+67.1% |
Ann. |
85.2% |
Sharpe |
3.32 |
Max DD |
-5.0% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+65.3% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$167,114 |
| Full backtest · 2014-03–2026-04 · 146 months |
| Total |
4,660% |
Ann. |
37.4% |
Sharpe |
1.60 |
Max DD |
-11.4% |
| Win% |
66% |
Alpha |
+25.6% |
SPY |
286% |
$100K → |
$4,759,609 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| FBLA |
13.4% |
-0.1% |
| BWET |
11.8% |
-0.1% |
| GOOGL |
7.3% |
-0.9% |
| TRP |
7.2% |
-0.8% |
| AVGO |
6.7% |
-0.2% |
| QLTY |
5.9% |
-0.1% |
| L |
5.4% |
-3.8% |
| KLAC |
5.3% |
+0.9% |
| WMT |
4.6% |
-0.2% |
| HBM |
3.5% |
-2.2% |
| VFLO |
2.9% |
+0.7% |
| GVA |
2.8% |
-0.2% |
| MU |
2.8% |
+8.2% |
| PDFS |
1.9% |
+0.6% |
| CTRE |
1.8% |
+0.2% |
| GEV |
1.7% |
+2.5% |
| ROAD |
1.6% |
-1.5% |
| HWKN |
1.6% |
-0.1% |
| TRT |
1.6% |
-2.1% |
| OII |
1.4% |
+0.2% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| AMZN |
1.2% |
+0.5% |
| HLT |
1.0% |
-1.2% |
| HWM |
0.8% |
+0.5% |
| SNDK |
0.8% |
+6.5% |
| RY |
0.6% |
-0.6% |
| OSIS |
0.6% |
-0.9% |
| AHR |
0.4% |
+0.3% |
| GRMN |
0.4% |
+0.0% |
| LAR |
0.4% |
+0.5% |
| RRBI |
0.4% |
+0.3% |
| MO |
0.4% |
-1.1% |
| EPD |
0.3% |
+1.3% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
+0.2% |
| META |
0.2% |
-1.0% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
-0.8% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+0.7% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
-1.5% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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