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Markets · Options · Signal
April 30, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:09 ET
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S&P 500
710.90
-0.10%
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Nasdaq
658.92
-0.40%
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Dow
492.58
+0.80%
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Russell 2k
273.20
+0.41%
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VIX
18.01
-4.25%
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20Y Bond
85.75
+0.05%
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Gold
423.83
+1.54%
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Silver
66.11
+1.95%
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Oil
147.69
-1.95%
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USD
27.46
-0.53%
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CNN Fear & Greed
64
Greed
wk -3 · mo +50
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 694.88 |
Res: 715.63 |
RSI: 66.5 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 633.29 |
Res: 665.41 |
RSI: 68.4 |
|
Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Thu Apr 30 – Thu Apr 30 · as of 10:09 ET |
| Thu Apr 30 |
| 04:00 |
DE |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) — est. 0.1%, prev. 0.2% |
| 05:00 |
EU |
CPI (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.0%, prev. 2.6% |
| 07:00 |
GB |
BoE Interest Rate Decision (Apr) — est. 3.75%, prev. 3.75% |
| 08:15 |
EU |
Deposit Facility Rate (Apr) — est. 2.00%, prev. 2.00% |
| 08:15 |
EU |
ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr) — est. 2.15%, prev. 2.15% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.4% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar) — est. 3.2%, prev. 3.0% |
| 08:30 |
US |
GDP (QoQ) (Q1) — est. 2.2%, prev. 0.5% |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.92% |
+8bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.42% |
+6bps |
| Spread |
+50bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
98.31 |
-0.62% |
| VIX/3M |
0.87 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.86% |
+0.06% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2723
$115.43 · $423.83
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z -0.79 · Neutral · ρ 87%
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| BTC |
$76,415 |
+0.9% |
| ETH |
$2,262 |
+0.5% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0296 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
10:13 ET |
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Utilities
+1.83%
XLU
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Health Care
+1.67%
XLV
|
Industrials
+1.66%
XLI
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Cons. Staples
+1.40%
XLP
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Real Estate
+0.84%
XLRE
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Materials
+0.16%
XLB
|
|
Cons. Discr.
-0.03%
XLY
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Energy
-0.08%
XLE
|
Financials
-0.19%
XLF
|
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Communication
-0.31%
XLC
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Technology
-1.00%
XLK
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In the RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a defensive tilt with Utilities and Health Care leading, while cyclicals like Financials and Technology lag.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 18 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 18 days, with US equities showing mixed results overnight: S&P 500 edged down 0.10% while the Dow rose 0.80%. Worth watching is the divergence between falling yields and rebounding equities, as US Treasuries rebounded post-Fed while the VIX did not notably rise, despite oil easing from four-year highs.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:12 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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MSFT
mixed
34
“MSFT can only be denied for so long….”
WSB 2232 pts · 5/5 subs
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ANY
mixed
24
“Launch Commoditization Doesn't Exist, and May Never. (Bullish for launch $X $RKL…”
WSB 41 pts · 5/5 subs
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GOOGL
bullish
16
“$GOOGL gains make up for me $HOOD losses”
WSB 31 pts · 4/5 subs
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META
mixed
14
“Bought META and sold the wrong calls AMZN”
WSB 28 pts · 5/5 subs
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ATH
bullish
10
“Oil and 10Yr at war time highs. Stocks still near ATH. At what point do we ackno…”
STK 443 pts · 5/5 subs
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PLTR
bullish
10
“Why is nobody talking about the FAA $32.5 billion contract to modernize US air t…”
STK 30 pts · 3/5 subs
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R
mixed
9
“Daily Discussion Thread for April 30, 2026”
WSB 181 pts · 5/5 subs
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IWM
mixed
7
“Oil and 10Yr at war time highs. Stocks still near ATH. At what point do we ackno…”
STK 443 pts · 4/5 subs
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|
Insider Wire |
1431 Form 4s filed · 10:09 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-25 to 2026-04-30
Insiders are dumping shares in the cybersecurity sector, with CrowdStrike and Cyberark executives unloading millions, while Visteon CEO also sells, sparking recovery regime caution.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CAR |
Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider |
$1,018.0M |
| SELL |
CAR |
Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider |
$510.9M |
| SELL |
CAR |
Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider |
$223.1M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$40.9M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$31.3M |
| SELL |
VC |
Lawande Sachin CEO and President |
$5.6M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:13 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
6.0d |
+0.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
31.1% |
4.6d |
+6.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.3% |
1.8d |
-1.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.4% |
3.0d |
-24.2% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.1% |
9.8d |
-3.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| CVNA |
13.5% |
4.9d |
+9.1% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
13.3% |
5.3d |
-1.9% |
MODERATE
|
| COIN |
12.8% |
2.3d |
+11.3% |
LOW
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8073 scanned · 72 SEC-confirmed· 5 red · 50 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| AMCX |
0.31 |
0.85 |
0.58 |
47% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| IRON |
0.34 |
0.85 |
0.45 |
55% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM*NDA |
RED
|
| SEB |
0.33 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
37% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| TBPH |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
46% |
GRINDCOVERELEVNDA |
RED
|
| RBCAA |
0.31 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
98% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATMDDUP? |
RED
|
| AOUT |
0.30 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
58% |
GRINDCOVERELEVEarningsILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| LFCR |
0.28 |
0.85 |
0.42 |
37% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| CAR |
0.56 |
0.45 |
0.42 |
78% |
COVERELEVLADDERATM |
YELLOW
|
| CBIO |
0.55 |
0.50 |
0.41 |
84% |
GRINDELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| IBTA |
0.23 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
60% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| MCFT |
0.22 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
49% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| IAC |
0.20 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
36% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| RCUS |
0.20 |
0.85 |
0.39 |
54% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATMNDA |
YELLOW
|
| COOK |
0.38 |
0.65 |
0.39 |
18% |
GRINDADDELEVILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| AVT |
0.13 |
0.65 |
0.34 |
39% |
IGNGRINDADDELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| SIRI |
0.30 |
0.55 |
0.32 |
50% |
GRINDADDM&A |
YELLOW
|
| OM |
0.25 |
0.50 |
0.28 |
68% |
GRINDELEVATM*ILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| JBIO |
0.16 |
0.85 |
0.18 |
54% |
BLOWGRINDCOVERELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| TSHA |
0.27 |
0.50 |
0.14 |
75% |
BLOWGRINDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| NOV |
0.17 |
0.85 |
0.13 |
44% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| MDGL |
0.16 |
0.85 |
0.13 |
43% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| FOXA |
0.15 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
28% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| MBIN |
0.14 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
44% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| ASTH |
0.14 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
25% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| TDW |
0.13 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
37% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| YELP |
0.12 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
14% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| PVH |
0.12 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
38% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM*Earnings |
YELLOW
|
| COTY |
0.12 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
11% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| HFFG |
0.12 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
18% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATMILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| TBI |
0.11 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
32% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| UNIT |
0.10 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
28% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| POWI |
0.10 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
33% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| CARG |
0.10 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
27% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| INVX |
0.08 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
36% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| PJT |
0.08 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
23% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| TNC |
0.07 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
21% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| XHR |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
31% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| OII |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
21% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| ODC |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
15% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| SAH |
0.05 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
16% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| LSTR |
0.05 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
11% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| ESRT |
0.05 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
23% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| MD |
0.04 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
15% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| SRCE |
0.04 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
14% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| RMBI |
0.04 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
11% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| GRDN |
0.03 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
10% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| SLRC |
0.02 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
8% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| BIO |
0.15 |
0.65 |
0.10 |
53% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| FA |
0.12 |
0.65 |
0.10 |
13% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| HWKN |
0.08 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
26% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| DCOM |
0.06 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
19% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| SNEX |
0.05 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
18% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| ECPG |
0.05 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
21% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| PGC |
0.04 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
15% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
|
Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:09 ET |
US Treasuries Rebound Post-Fed as Oil Eases From Four-Year Highs
BBG 3h ago
The rebound in US Treasuries suggests that investors are reappraising their inflation expectations. With yields declining, rate hike expectations may decrease, supporting a rally in risk assets. Keep an eye on upcoming US economic data releases and Fed communications for signs of shifting expectations.
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:09 ET |
| FJ |
ECB Sticks to 2% Inflation Goal
ECB's Lagarde emphasizes symmetry around 2% target
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Japan Intervenes in FX Market
Japan conducts yen-buying operation to strengthen currency
|
42m ago |
| FJ |
US-China Trade Consultations Continue
China and US agree to manage differences and enhance cooperation
|
17m ago |
| FJ |
ECB Sees Abundant Liquidity
ECB's Lagarde notes liquidity is abundant in the financial system
|
52m ago |
| FJ |
Crude to Stabilize in Months
Russia's Novak expects oil market to stabilize soon
|
40m ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
|
|
NVDA
$201.88
-3.5%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 60 |
1M +20.0% |
3M +8.7% |
1Y +91.9% |
UP |
Nvidia has contributed one-third of the Magnificent 7's bull market gains, with its stock up 91.9% in the past year. However, Meta's increased AI spending outlook of $145 billion raised investor concerns over AI returns despite stronger Q1 sales and profit. The market may be mispricing the sustainability of Nvidia's growth amidst rising competition and AI investment.
|
|
DELL
$202.69
-1.4%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 67 |
1M +25.3% |
3M +73.6% |
1Y +119.3% |
FLAT |
Dell's AI server boom drives strong growth, with analysts betting on continued momentum into 2027, and the stock has a new Street-high price target. The company's AI server growth is a key catalyst, but memory cost issues, as seen in the industry-wide constraints faced by PC Connection Inc, pose a risk. The market is pricing in high expectations, with a composite score of 67/100 and an analyst target of $168.
|
|
|
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
|
2026-04-01 |
| PLTR |
Buy |
24 / 10 / 2
|
2026-04-01 |
| CASY |
Buy |
16 / 9 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 30 |
AVLN
Avalyn Pharma Inc.
|
— |
$244M |
| Apr 30 |
MCAHU
Mountain Crest Acquisition 6 Corp.
|
— |
$69M |
| Apr 30 |
ARCLU
ARC Group Acquisition I Corp.
|
— |
$121M |
| May 01 |
SPTX
Seaport Therapeutics, Inc.
|
— |
$244M |
| May 01 |
COAG
Hemab Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.
|
— |
$244M |
| May 06 |
REA
Rare Earths Americas, Inc.
|
— |
$61M |
| May 07 |
HAWK
HawkEye 360, Inc.
|
— |
$478M |
| May 07 |
SUJA
SUJA LIFE, INC.
|
— |
$245M |
|
Congressional Trades |
3 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Robert E. Latta |
FMAO |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Robert E Latta |
FMAO |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Robert E Latta |
FMAO |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
OSRH
+48.5%
$0.68
BAND
+41.7%
$34.28
MRAM
+37.8%
$18.18
XRX
+35.7%
$2.13
RPGL
+35.6%
$1.94
Top Losers
RDAC
-39.5%
$12.41
BNCWZ
-34.1%
$0.27
ENVB
-32.9%
$3.46
INHD
-31.6%
$0.08
HAO
-31.1%
$0.65
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:13 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
498,812 |
214,730 |
284,082 |
1.32
|
$714C 39,880 vol |
| SPY: Bearish flow, put-call ratio of 1.32 suggests hedge or directional put play. |
| QQQ |
331,313 |
133,874 |
197,439 |
1.47
|
$665C 16,990 vol |
| QQQ: Aggressive call buying at $665C, but high P/C ratio of 1.47 indicates mixed flow. |
| NVDA |
211,194 |
99,972 |
111,222 |
1.11
|
$210C 25,232 vol |
| NVDA: Elevated call activity at $210C, P/C ratio near 1 suggests neutral to bullish positioning. |
| TSLA |
174,946 |
93,189 |
81,757 |
0.88
|
$380C 14,089 vol |
| TSLA: Call-heavy flow with P/C ratio of 0.88, bullish signal with $380C buying. |
| AMD |
44,292 |
26,857 |
17,435 |
0.65
|
$350C 5,686 vol |
| AMD: Call-heavy flow with low P/C ratio of 0.65, bullish signal, particularly at $350C. |
|
|
VRT
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$121B
· Earnings Jul 29
· Div 8.0%
|
| $270P |
16 DTE |
+31.7% ann. |
+12.4% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| The Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund opened a new $10.7M position in Vertiv Holdings Co. ($VRT) stock, according to Quiver Quantitative. |
|
AAOI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$12B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $125P |
16 DTE |
+219.0% ann. |
+11.4% OTM |
Δ 0.33 |
POP 67% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is expected to post quarterly earnings on Thursday, amid a data center boom and retail frenzy driving its ninth straight gain. |
|
SNDK
CSP
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$160B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $860P |
16 DTE |
+79.6% ann. |
+19.9% OTM |
Δ 0.24 |
POP 76% |
|
| SanDisk (SNDK) stock is up 17.2% following the launch of a new 2X short ETF and spotlight on AI storage. |
|
AMD
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$560B
· Earnings May 05
|
| $345C |
23 DTE |
+65.1% ann. |
+7.8% OTM |
Δ 0.08 |
POP 92% |
|
| AMD's stock is up 3x, sparking debate on whether it has gained an edge over competitor Nvidia, according to recent Yahoo Finance analysis. |
|
AAOI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$12B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $150C |
23 DTE |
+233.0% ann. |
+4.9% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is expected to post quarterly earnings on Thursday, amid a data center boom and retail frenzy driving its ninth straight gain. |
|
WDC
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$147B
· Earnings Apr 30
· Div 12.0%
|
| $485C |
37 DTE |
+65.9% ann. |
+12.3% OTM |
Δ 0.06 |
POP 94% |
|
| Western Digital's stock is soaring due to an unspecified catalyst, with investors marking their calendars for April 30, possibly anticipating significant news. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $711 · QQQ $659 · VIX 18.0 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.0 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$705P |
60d |
1 |
$14.46 |
$1,446 |
8.8% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$725P |
60d |
1 |
$22.47 |
$2,247 |
13.7% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$695P |
60d |
2 |
$11.79 |
$2,358 |
14.3% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $725P 60d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$676 |
116% |
$98,431 |
| Correction -10% |
$640 |
100% |
$97,738 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$605 |
94% |
$97,044 |
| Crash -20% |
$569 |
92% |
$96,351 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$660P |
60d |
1 |
$20.33 |
$2,033 |
12.4% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$670P |
60d |
1 |
$24.52 |
$2,452 |
14.9% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$645P |
60d |
2 |
$15.02 |
$3,004 |
18.3% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $670P 60d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$626 |
103% |
$97,665 |
| Correction -10% |
$593 |
90% |
$96,712 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$560 |
86% |
$95,758 |
| Crash -20% |
$527 |
84% |
$94,805 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:13 ET
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April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 30 (MTD) · Hit rate: 20/28 · Avg return: +5.8% · YTD: +8.0%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+40.1% |
Ann. |
56.8% |
Sharpe |
3.05 |
Max DD |
-4.0% |
| Win% |
78% |
Alpha |
+49.7% |
SPY |
+5.3% |
$100K → |
$140,122 |
| Full backtest · 2014-03–2026-03 · 145 months |
| Total |
1,788% |
Ann. |
27.5% |
Sharpe |
1.68 |
Max DD |
-8.3% |
| Win% |
69% |
Alpha |
+16.6% |
SPY |
249% |
$100K → |
$1,887,863 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| XOM |
25.8% |
-4.3% |
| JNJ |
15.0% |
-5.6% |
| PLTR |
10.6% |
-6.1% |
| FBLA |
8.6% |
+2.4% |
| WMT |
7.0% |
+5.0% |
| CASY |
6.5% |
+10.0% |
| NVT |
5.2% |
+15.2% |
| AUGO |
4.7% |
-4.4% |
| ROST |
4.3% |
+3.7% |
| MATX |
2.8% |
+4.3% |
| EXE |
2.0% |
-4.4% |
| PLXS |
1.9% |
+14.3% |
| EBAY |
1.5% |
+7.4% |
| REGN |
1.4% |
-10.9% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| ETR |
1.1% |
+2.7% |
| CCBG |
0.9% |
+5.5% |
| ITRN |
0.9% |
+11.8% |
| FMBH |
0.7% |
+0.2% |
| TSLA |
0.0% |
-3.3% |
| JPM |
0.0% |
+5.3% |
| NVDA |
0.0% |
+14.8% |
| MSFT |
0.0% |
+8.9% |
| META |
0.0% |
+4.2% |
| AVGO |
0.0% |
+31.0% |
| AMZN |
0.0% |
+23.8% |
| GOOGL |
0.0% |
+24.5% |
| BRK.B |
0.0% |
-0.5% |
| AAPL |
0.0% |
+6.0% |
|
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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