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Markets · Options · Signal
April 29, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:07 ET
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S&P 500
710.64
-0.15%
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Nasdaq
658.24
+0.10%
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Dow
489.61
-0.37%
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Russell 2k
272.85
-0.39%
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VIX
18.13
+1.68%
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20Y Bond
85.78
-0.68%
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Gold
415.25
-1.58%
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Silver
64.90
-1.96%
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Oil
146.51
+4.95%
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USD
27.59
+0.18%
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CNN Fear & Greed
64
Greed
wk -5 · mo +50
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 692.04 |
Res: 715.63 |
RSI: 66.0 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 629.39 |
Res: 664.51 |
RSI: 69.5 |
|
Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Wed Apr 29 – Thu Apr 30 · as of 10:07 ET |
| Wed Apr 29 |
| 08:00 |
DE |
German CPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.7%, prev. 1.1% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) — est. 0.4%, prev. -1.2% |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — est. 0.300M, prev. 1.925M |
| 14:00 |
US |
FOMC Statement |
| 14:00 |
US |
Fed Interest Rate Decision — est. 3.75%, prev. 3.75% |
| 14:30 |
US |
FOMC Press Conference |
| Thu Apr 30 |
| 04:00 |
DE |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) — est. 0.1%, prev. 0.3% |
| 05:00 |
EU |
CPI (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.0%, prev. 2.6% |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.84% |
+6bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.36% |
+1bps |
| Spread |
+52bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
98.87 |
+0.25% |
| VIX/3M |
0.88 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.76% |
-0.01% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2747
$114.03 · $415.06
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z -0.62 · Neutral · ρ 86%
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| BTC |
$76,722 |
+0.5% |
| ETH |
$2,302 |
+0.5% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0300 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
10:10 ET |
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Energy
+1.30%
XLE
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Financials
+0.24%
XLF
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Industrials
+0.08%
XLI
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Technology
+0.05%
XLK
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Communication
-0.14%
XLC
|
Cons. Staples
-0.19%
XLP
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Cons. Discr.
-0.21%
XLY
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Materials
-0.26%
XLB
|
Utilities
-0.34%
XLU
|
|
Real Estate
-0.39%
XLRE
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Health Care
-0.85%
XLV
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In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a risk-on rotation into cyclical sectors, with Energy, Financials, and Industrials leading, while defensives like Utilities and Health Care lag.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 17 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 17 days, with the S&P 500 down 0.15% and Nasdaq up 0.10% from the previous close, as traders position ahead of the Fed decision. Spanish inflation unexpectedly quickens beyond 2% and Fed communication turns more cautious and slightly more hawkish, worth watching as it diverges from the dovish repricing in US yields.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:09 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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ANY
mixed
24
“Market movers since the beginning of the Iran War”
WSB 121 pts · 5/5 subs
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BRO
mixed
13
“Someone has been farming SPX 0DTE options with fake geopolitical headlines all w…”
OPT 124 pts · 5/5 subs
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MSFT
mixed
11
“MSFT Earnings”
WSB 1925 pts · 5/5 subs
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SNDK
mixed
11
“locked in 228k sndk gains today”
WSB 637 pts · 5/5 subs
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SHOT
mixed
10
“Regards, may I present: the Fat F*ck Index”
WSB 3805 pts · 4/5 subs
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FAT
bullish
10
“Regards, may I present: the Fat F*ck Index”
WSB 3805 pts · 3/5 subs
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R
mixed
8
“Daily Discussion Thread for April 29, 2026”
WSB 146 pts · 5/5 subs
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NVDA
bullish
8
“Should've stayed out 😐”
WSB 89 pts · 5/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1493 Form 4s filed · 10:07 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-24 to 2026-04-29
Hedge funds Pentwater and Magnetar dump shares in CAR and CRWV, respectively, sparking bearish signals in the cybersecurity sector amid recovery regime.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CAR |
Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider |
$1,018.0M |
| SELL |
CAR |
Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider |
$510.9M |
| SELL |
CAR |
Pentwater Capital Managem… Insider |
$223.1M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$117.4M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$75.8M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$9.4M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:10 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
6.0d |
+0.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
31.1% |
4.6d |
+6.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.3% |
1.8d |
-1.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.4% |
3.0d |
-24.2% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.1% |
9.8d |
-3.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| CVNA |
13.5% |
4.9d |
+9.1% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
13.3% |
5.3d |
-1.9% |
MODERATE
|
| COIN |
12.8% |
2.3d |
+11.3% |
LOW
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8073 scanned · 73 SEC-confirmed· 3 red · 55 yellow |
Nine-layer signal stack scored daily across full universe (Stage 1 ignition sweep + Stage 2 SEC confirm). Each symbol receives an executable verdict: WHAT to do, WHEN to enter, WHEN to invalidate, HOW MUCH to size (2% of 20-day ADV cap). Archegos / VW / CAR pattern.
Kill-Switch (37):
IRON scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)TBPH scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)CAR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-27IBTA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26CLB active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-23 · scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)RCUS active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25 (large facility ≥$500M) · scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)IMVT active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-06 · scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)AVO scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-04 (>30d out) [FMP]IMRX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-06CHWY scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-10 (>30d out) [FMP]ALB active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-11 (large facility ≥$500M)DRUG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-01-09TSHA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-19NBR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-13MDGL active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-19 (large facility ≥$500M)PVH scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-03 (>30d out) [FMP]GME active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-24 · scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-09 (>30d out) [FMP]PLUS scheduled Earnings: Earnings within 30d (2026-05-28) [FMP]XHR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-24ODC scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-04 (>30d out) [FMP]LSTR scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)ESRT active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2025-11-05 (large facility ≥$500M)GRDN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-20SLRC active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-24 (large facility ≥$500M)AMLX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-03 (large facility ≥$500M)BTMD scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)HOG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26 (large facility ≥$500M) · scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)ECPG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25CVNA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-18 (large facility ≥$500M)AMC active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-09W active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-19 (large facility ≥$500M)PTGX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25 (large facility ≥$500M)UPST active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-10 (large facility ≥$500M)HOOD active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-20 (large facility ≥$500M)RIVN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-12 (large facility ≥$500M)DKNG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-13 (large facility ≥$500M)PLTR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-17 (large facility ≥$500M)
Late-Stage Avoid (1):
JBIO
Illiquid-Pass (2):
SBFG ILLIQUID · ADV $0.18M — cap $4kRMBI ILLIQUID · ADV $0.48M — cap $10k
Full structural ranking · 58 flagged names (click to expand)
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| IRON |
0.34 |
0.85 |
0.45 |
55% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM*NDA |
RED
|
| SEB |
0.33 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
37% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| TBPH |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
46% |
GRINDCOVERELEVNDA |
RED
|
| CAR |
0.56 |
0.45 |
0.42 |
78% |
COVERELEVLADDERATM |
YELLOW
|
| CBIO |
0.55 |
0.40 |
0.41 |
84% |
GRINDATM* |
YELLOW
|
| IBTA |
0.23 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
60% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| CLB |
0.22 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
63% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATMEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| JBGS |
0.21 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
32% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| IAC |
0.20 |
0.85 |
0.40 |
36% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| RCUS |
0.20 |
0.85 |
0.39 |
54% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATMNDA |
YELLOW
|
| COOK |
0.38 |
0.65 |
0.39 |
18% |
GRINDADDELEVILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| RUSHB |
0.35 |
0.65 |
0.38 |
86% |
GRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| IMVT |
0.31 |
0.65 |
0.36 |
69% |
GRINDADDELEVATMNDA |
YELLOW
|
| SPB |
0.23 |
0.65 |
0.33 |
43% |
GRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| AVO |
0.09 |
0.65 |
0.33 |
20% |
IGNGRINDADDELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| ANIP |
0.22 |
0.65 |
0.32 |
22% |
GRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| SIRI |
0.30 |
0.55 |
0.32 |
50% |
GRINDADDM&A |
YELLOW
|
| OM |
0.25 |
0.50 |
0.28 |
68% |
GRINDELEVATM*ILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| IMRX |
0.23 |
0.85 |
0.19 |
36% |
BLOWGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| JBIO |
0.16 |
0.85 |
0.18 |
54% |
BLOWGRINDCOVERELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| ALB |
0.03 |
0.85 |
0.15 |
22% |
BLOWGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| DRUG |
0.21 |
0.65 |
0.15 |
71% |
BLOWGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| TSHA |
0.27 |
0.50 |
0.14 |
75% |
BLOWGRINDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| NBR |
0.11 |
0.65 |
0.13 |
43% |
BLOWGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| MDGL |
0.16 |
0.85 |
0.13 |
43% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| FOXA |
0.15 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
28% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| MBIN |
0.14 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
44% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| ASTH |
0.14 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
25% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| PVH |
0.12 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
38% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM*Earnings |
YELLOW
|
| COTY |
0.12 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
11% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| GME |
0.11 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
9% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATMEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| TBI |
0.11 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
32% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| UNIT |
0.10 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
28% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| ALCO |
0.10 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
28% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| CARG |
0.10 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
27% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| PLUS |
0.09 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
34% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| TNC |
0.07 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
21% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| XHR |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
31% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| ODC |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
15% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| SBFG |
0.05 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
14% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| LSTR |
0.05 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
11% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| ESRT |
0.05 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
23% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| MD |
0.04 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
15% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| RMBI |
0.04 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
11% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| GRDN |
0.03 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
10% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| SLRC |
0.02 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
8% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| AMLX |
0.18 |
0.65 |
0.10 |
57% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| GHC |
0.17 |
0.65 |
0.10 |
33% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| BIO |
0.15 |
0.65 |
0.10 |
53% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| BTMD |
0.10 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
28% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVEarningsILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| MTUS |
0.10 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
34% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| HWKN |
0.08 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
26% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| HOG |
0.08 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
22% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVATMEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| NTCT |
0.06 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
21% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| DCOM |
0.06 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
19% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| SNEX |
0.05 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
18% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| ECPG |
0.05 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
21% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
|
Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:07 ET |
| FJ |
CACIB: USD - A Parting Gift - FJElite
The USD may be nearing a peak, and a weakening trend could lead to a rally in commodities and EM assets. However, a strong US economic report or hawkish Fed communication could reverse this trend. Monitor US economic data and Fed communication for potential shifts.
|
55m ago |
| BBG |
Spanish Inflation Unexpectedly Quickens Further Beyond 2%
Spanish inflation unexpectedly quickening may indicate a sustained upward trend in European inflation, potentially leading to EUR strength and higher Spanish bond yields. This could prompt the ECB to adjust its policy. Watch for ECB policy decisions and energy price movements.
|
7h ago |
| CNBC |
S&P 500 is little changed as oil rises, traders brace for Fed decision and Big Tech earnings: Live updates
Markets are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed decision and Big Tech earnings reports, which may result in range-bound trading and increased volatility. Be prepared for potential market-moving events.
|
6m ago |
| FJ |
BoC forecasts assume US tariffs remain unchanged and oil prices gradually decline to $75 a barrel by mid-2027.
The BoC's forecasts assuming US tariffs remain unchanged and oil prices gradually decline may indicate a more dovish stance, leading to CAD weakness and lower Canadian bond yields. Monitor Canadian economic data and BoC policy decisions for potential shifts.
|
21m ago |
| YHO |
Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow turn down ahead of 'Magnificent 7' earnings, Fed Chair Powell's final policy decision
Markets are cautious ahead of the Fed decision and Big Tech earnings reports, which may lead to increased volatility and a sell-off in equities. Keep an eye on market-moving events and potential changes in market positioning.
|
14h ago |
| BBG |
US Stocks Open Lower on Big Tech Losses Before Earnings Results
|
2h ago |
| BBG |
Stocks Join Bonds Lower as Oil Keeps Climbing: Markets Wrap
|
16h ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:07 ET |
| FJ |
BoC Holds Rates, Cites Global Risks
BoC keeps rates steady, wary of trade and Middle East tensions.
|
22m ago |
| FJ |
Iran Tensions Impact Oil, Markets
Escalating Iran tensions support oil prices, weigh on markets.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Fed Communication Turns Cautious
Fed signals caution, slightly hawkish tone amid global uncertainty.
|
53m ago |
| FJ |
US Data Mixed, Focus on Rates
US data mixed, with retail and housing beats, but rate decisions ahead.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Netanyahu's US Trip Amid Iran Tensions
Netanyahu's US visit may discuss Iran, amid rising geopolitical risks.
|
1h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
|
|
NVDA
$210.18
-1.4%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 66 |
1M +29.1% |
3M +11.3% |
1Y +96.1% |
UP |
OpenAI's reported miss of internal targets has led to a sell-off in tech stocks tied to the company, including Nvidia (NVDA). NVDA's composite score is 66/100 with a trend of UP, and its 1-year return is +96.1%. The market may be mispricing the impact of OpenAI's miss on NVDA's AI-driven growth prospects.
|
|
DELL
$204.19
-0.8%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 68 |
1M +25.1% |
3M +75.5% |
1Y +118.0% |
FLAT |
Dell's price target was raised by Bank of America to $246 from $205, implying 19.5% upside from the April 29 price of $205.93. 24/7 Wall St. forecasts a 14.42% 12-month upside to $235.63. The stock's AI server cycle growth may be mispriced if it exceeds expectations.
|
|
|
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| EXE |
Buy |
29 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| TBN |
Buy |
8 / 2 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| ROST |
Buy |
19 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 29 |
PS
PERSHING SQUARE HOLDCO, L.P.
|
— |
$1.7B |
| Apr 29 |
SBMT
SILVER BOW MINING CORP.
|
— |
$65M |
| Apr 30 |
AVLN
Avalyn Pharma Inc.
|
— |
$244M |
| Apr 30 |
MCAHU
Mountain Crest Acquisition 6 Corp.
|
— |
$69M |
| May 01 |
SPTX
Seaport Therapeutics, Inc.
|
— |
$244M |
| May 01 |
COAG
Hemab Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.
|
— |
$244M |
| May 07 |
HAWK
HawkEye 360, Inc.
|
— |
$478M |
| May 07 |
SUJA
SUJA LIFE, INC.
|
— |
$245M |
|
Congressional Trades |
4 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| James E Hon Banks |
SBUX |
Sale |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Robert E Latta |
FMAO |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Robert E. Latta |
FMAO |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Robert E Latta |
FMAO |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
RDAC
+107.3%
$10.16
XTLB
+59.6%
$3.67
INHD
+54.5%
$0.12
EUDA
+50.6%
$18.07
BEG
+41.8%
$89.24
Top Losers
SGMO
-31.6%
$0.14
TERG
-28.4%
$43.09
SOFA
-27.6%
$12.65
SOFX
-27.0%
$8.85
HOOG
-25.4%
$17.16
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:10 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
238,789 |
84,714 |
154,075 |
1.82
|
$710C 14,583 vol |
| SPY: Bearish flow, put/call 1.82 with heavy put activity, no clear directional signal. |
| QQQ |
149,662 |
62,621 |
87,041 |
1.39
|
$657C 7,515 vol |
| QQQ: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, P/C 1.39 with large $657C buying. |
| TSLA |
136,184 |
78,268 |
57,916 |
0.74
|
$380C 14,837 vol |
| TSLA: Bullish call buying, P/C 0.74 with 14,837 $380C vol, suggests upside bet. |
| NVDA |
129,361 |
77,029 |
52,332 |
0.68
|
$215C 18,618 vol |
| NVDA: Bullish call buying, P/C 0.68 with 18,618 $215C vol, suggests upside bet. |
| PLTR |
48,419 |
25,803 |
22,616 |
0.88
|
$160C 4,221 vol |
| PLTR: Mixed flow, P/C 0.88 with moderate call and put activity, no clear signal. |
|
|
VRT
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$118B
· Earnings Apr 22
· Div 0.1%
|
| $270P |
16 DTE |
+31.7% ann. |
+12.4% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| Vertiv's (VRT) stock price is down 5.4% according to MarketBeat, with CSP opportunities showing annual returns ranging from 30.4% to 39.0%. |
|
AAOI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$11B
· Earnings Feb 26
|
| $125P |
16 DTE |
+219.0% ann. |
+11.4% OTM |
Δ 0.33 |
POP 67% |
|
| AAOI stock is pulling back from an 8-year high as traders brace for Q4 earnings, according to MSN. |
|
SNDK
CSP
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$160B
· Earnings Jan 29
|
| $860P |
16 DTE |
+79.6% ann. |
+19.9% OTM |
Δ 0.24 |
POP 76% |
|
| SanDisk (SNDK) is set to report Q3 earnings this week, with investors eyeing the results amid a backdrop of rising memory chip demand driven by AI. |
|
AMD
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$522B
· Earnings Feb 04
|
| $345C |
23 DTE |
+65.1% ann. |
+7.8% OTM |
Δ 0.08 |
POP 92% |
|
| AMD stock is sinking due to a report that OpenAI missed sales and user targets, impacting stocks including Oracle, AMD, and CoreWeave. |
|
AAOI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$11B
· Earnings Feb 26
|
| $150C |
23 DTE |
+233.0% ann. |
+4.9% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| AAOI stock is pulling back from an 8-year high as traders brace for Q4 earnings, according to MSN. |
|
WDC
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$144B
· Earnings Jan 29
· Div 0.1%
|
| $485C |
37 DTE |
+65.9% ann. |
+12.3% OTM |
Δ 0.06 |
POP 94% |
|
| Western Digital's stock is soaring after the close, driven by analyst target resets and expectations, according to recent headlines. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $711 · QQQ $658 · VIX 18.1 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$705P |
61d |
1 |
$14.80 |
$1,480 |
8.9% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$725P |
61d |
1 |
$23.10 |
$2,310 |
13.8% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$696P |
61d |
2 |
$12.22 |
$2,444 |
14.6% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $725P 61d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$675 |
117% |
$98,416 |
| Correction -10% |
$640 |
100% |
$97,720 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$604 |
95% |
$97,024 |
| Crash -20% |
$569 |
92% |
$96,328 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$655P |
61d |
1 |
$19.51 |
$1,951 |
11.7% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$670P |
61d |
1 |
$26.04 |
$2,604 |
15.6% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$645P |
61d |
2 |
$16.09 |
$3,218 |
19.3% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $670P 61d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$625 |
105% |
$97,630 |
| Correction -10% |
$592 |
91% |
$96,670 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$559 |
87% |
$95,710 |
| Crash -20% |
$526 |
84% |
$94,751 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:10 ET
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 29 (MTD) · Hit rate: 17/31 · Avg return: +4.4% · YTD: +1.3%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+41.8% |
Ann. |
59.3% |
Sharpe |
3.11 |
Max DD |
-5.0% |
| Win% |
78% |
Alpha |
+52.2% |
SPY |
+5.3% |
$100K → |
$141,803 |
| Full backtest · 2014-03–2026-03 · 145 months |
| Total |
2,365% |
Ann. |
30.4% |
Sharpe |
1.62 |
Max DD |
-13.6% |
| Win% |
72% |
Alpha |
+19.5% |
SPY |
249% |
$100K → |
$2,465,363 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| XOM |
24.7% |
-5.4% |
| JNJ |
14.8% |
-7.6% |
| FBLA |
11.1% |
+2.3% |
| EXE |
7.3% |
-5.4% |
| ROST |
5.4% |
+2.7% |
| TBN |
4.5% |
-20.1% |
| WMT |
4.3% |
+1.6% |
| CCNR |
4.2% |
+1.8% |
| REGN |
4.0% |
-11.0% |
| PLTR |
2.9% |
-7.7% |
| CASY |
2.7% |
+5.9% |
| AAUC |
1.4% |
-2.3% |
| MRVL |
1.4% |
+43.0% |
| CTVA |
1.0% |
-5.3% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+4.9% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
-5.1% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| COST |
0.9% |
-0.8% |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-9.7% |
| ETON |
0.7% |
-6.5% |
| BWET |
0.6% |
+31.8% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-2.3% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+25.0% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+5.1% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+19.7% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+14.9% |
| META |
0.5% |
+15.7% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+27.3% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+18.0% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+5.6% |
| SOBO |
0.3% |
+1.9% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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