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MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
April 28, 2026 · All times ET
Regime RECOVERY Day 16
Market Snapshot · 10:07 ET
S&P 500
712.09
-0.43%
Nasdaq
658.97
-0.79%
Dow
492.08
+0.05%
Russell 2k
274.93
-0.80%
VIX
18.58
+3.11%
20Y Bond
86.00
-0.32%
Gold
420.00
-2.30%
Silver
65.86
-3.63%
Oil
139.68
+3.68%
USD
27.54
+0.31%
CNN Fear & Greed
69 Greed
wk +1 · mo +55
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bullish Sup: 689.01 Res: 715.63 RSI: 66.9
QQQ Trend: Bullish Sup: 625.38 Res: 664.51 RSI: 69.8
Econ Calendar
8 high-impact · Tue Apr 28 – Thu Apr 30 · as of 10:07 ET
Tue Apr 28
10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) — est. 89.0, prev. 92.2
Wed Apr 29
08:00 DE German CPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.7%, prev. 1.1%
08:30 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) — est. 0.4%, prev. -1.3%
10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories — prev. 1.925M
14:00 US FOMC Statement
14:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision — est. 3.75%, prev. 3.75%
14:30 US FOMC Press Conference
Thu Apr 30
04:00 DE German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) — est. 0.1%, prev. 0.3%
Macro Snapshot
10:10 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 3.78% +0bps
10Y Yield 4.35% +4bps
Spread +57bps Steepening
DXY 98.70 +0.23%
VIX/3M 0.88 Contango
HY OAS 6.77% -0.02%
BZ–WTI 0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
 z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
GDXJ–GLD 0.2811
$118.09 · $420.03
 z -0.21 · Neutral · ρ 83%
BTC $76,159 -1.6%
ETH $2,275 -1.2%
ETH/BTC 0.0299
Sector Rotation · Today
10:09 ET
Energy
+1.40%
XLE
Cons. Staples
+0.59%
XLP
Health Care
+0.47%
XLV
Financials
+0.37%
XLF
Utilities
-0.11%
XLU
Communication
-0.20%
XLC
Real Estate
-0.28%
XLRE
Cons. Discr.
-0.30%
XLY
Materials
-1.00%
XLB
Industrials
-1.26%
XLI
Technology
-1.39%
XLK
In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a defensive tilt with Energy, Cons. Staples, and Health Care outperforming, while cyclicals like Tech and Industrials lag.
Regime Timeline
HMM Regime Detection — SPY 90-day timeline
From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 16 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 16 days, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% and Nasdaq down 0.79% at the previous close, while the Dow eked out a 0.05% gain. Worth watching is the divergence between the Bank of Japan's raised inflation forecast and the US Conference Board's 12-month inflation expectations ticking downward, as Wall Street banks boost Treasury holdings to their highest level since 2007.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — White House
UK urged to deploy EU-style ‘trade bazooka’ against Trump’s tariffs | International trade
GRD 1d ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:09 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
ANY mixed 30
“Market movers since the beginning of the Iran War”
WSB 81 pts · 5/5 subs
AMD mixed 19
“AMD 2x leverage. $162K profit (+116%)”
WSB 5 pts · 5/5 subs
NVDA bullish 18
“Should've stayed out 😐”
WSB 39 pts · 5/5 subs
ARM mixed 13
“Intel Isn’t Done Yet: Analysts Turn INTC Bullish as AI Momentum Builds”
STK 112 pts · 3/5 subs
GOOGL bullish 12
“GOOGL Hits $350,The Final Stretch Toward a $5T Valuation”
STK 357 pts · 3/5 subs
FAT mixed 11
“Regards, may I present: the Fat F*ck Index”
WSB 2217 pts · 3/5 subs
SNDK mixed 10
“locked in 228k sndk gains today”
WSB 557 pts · 5/5 subs
SHOT mixed 10
“Regards, may I present: the Fat F*ck Index”
WSB 2217 pts · 3/5 subs
Insider Wire
1365 Form 4s filed · 10:07 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-23 to 2026-04-28
Magnetar Financial sheds $334M in CrowdStrike (CRWV) stock, while CEO Sachin Lawande of Visteon (VC) also sells, ahead of earnings, in a scattered tech insider selling spree.
Ticker Insider Value
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $117.4M
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $104.7M
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $75.8M
SELL CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC Insider $36.2M
SELL CRWV Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer $9.4M
SELL VC Lawande Sachin CEO and President $5.6M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 10:10 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
UPST 33.4% 6.0d +0.4% HIGH
BYND 31.1% 4.6d +6.4% ELEVATED
SMCI 19.3% 1.8d -1.9% ELEVATED
AMC 15.4% 3.0d -24.2% ELEVATED
GME 15.1% 9.8d -3.6% ELEVATED
CVNA 13.5% 4.9d +9.1% MODERATE
RIVN 13.3% 5.3d -1.9% MODERATE
COIN 12.8% 2.3d +11.3% LOW
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor
8071 scanned · 81 SEC-confirmed· 6 red · 59 yellow
Nine-layer signal stack scored daily across full universe (Stage 1 ignition sweep + Stage 2 SEC confirm). Each symbol receives an executable verdict: WHAT to do, WHEN to enter, WHEN to invalidate, HOW MUCH to size (2% of 20-day ADV cap). Archegos / VW / CAR pattern.
Kill-Switch (45): BNED active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-10IRON scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)IBTA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26VEL active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-12SKYH active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-19CAR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-27IMVT active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-06 · scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)ORKA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-12 · scheduled ReadOut: ReadOut within 30d (2026-04-27)IMRX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-06CHWY scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-10 (>30d out) [FMP]SDSTW active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2025-12-17 (large facility ≥$500M)DRUG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-01-09TSHA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-19NBR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-13CAPR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-17 (large facility ≥$500M) · scheduled PDUFA: PDUFA scheduled 2026-08-22 (>60d out)WLY scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-16 (>30d out) [FMP]PTGX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25 (large facility ≥$500M)XPER active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26PLUS scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-05-28 (>30d out) [FMP]ODC scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-04 (>30d out) [FMP]LSTR scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)BXMT active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-11 (large facility ≥$500M)GRDN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-20ABEO active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-17SENS active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-02BURL scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-04 (>30d out) [FMP]XPRO active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-19 (large facility ≥$500M)CNK active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2025-11-05 (large facility ≥$500M)BTMD scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)PRTA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-27 (large facility ≥$500M)AVO scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-04 (>30d out) [FMP]INVX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-24NTAP scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-05-28 (>30d out) [FMP]ECPG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25SRCE scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)SLRC active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-24 (large facility ≥$500M)CVNA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-18 (large facility ≥$500M)AMC active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-09W active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-19 (large facility ≥$500M)GME active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-24 · scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-09 (>30d out) [FMP]UPST active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-10 (large facility ≥$500M)HOOD active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-20 (large facility ≥$500M)RIVN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-12 (large facility ≥$500M)DKNG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-13 (large facility ≥$500M)PLTR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-17 (large facility ≥$500M)
Illiquid-Pass (1): SBFG ILLIQUID · ADV $0.18M — cap $4k
Full structural ranking · 65 flagged names (click to expand)
Ticker Struct Ignit Final Hldrs Flags Bucket
ODD 0.35 0.85 0.60 71% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
SSTK 0.35 0.85 0.60 52% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
LCID 0.55 0.10 0.55 76% PREELEVATM* YELLOW
PSNY 0.45 0.65 0.55 98% PREGRINDADDELEVDDUP? YELLOW
NNI 0.36 0.65 0.50 69% PREGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
BNED 0.42 0.85 0.48 82% GRINDCOVERELEVATM RED
IRON 0.34 0.85 0.45 55% GRINDCOVERELEVATM*NDA RED
SEB 0.33 0.85 0.44 37% GRINDCOVERELEV RED
CBIO 0.55 0.40 0.41 84% GRINDATM* YELLOW
IBTA 0.23 0.85 0.40 60% GRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
JBGS 0.21 0.85 0.40 32% GRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
IAC 0.20 0.85 0.40 36% GRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
VEL 0.29 0.65 0.35 57% GRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
SKYH 0.25 0.65 0.34 68% GRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
ANIP 0.22 0.65 0.32 22% GRINDADDELEV YELLOW
MCFT 0.22 0.65 0.32 49% GRINDADDELEVATM* YELLOW
SIRI 0.30 0.55 0.32 50% GRINDADDM&A YELLOW
CAR 0.56 0.45 0.31 78% COOLCOVERELEVLADDERATM YELLOW
IMVT 0.31 0.50 0.31 69% GRINDELEVATMNDA YELLOW
OM 0.25 0.50 0.28 68% GRINDELEVATM*ILLIQ YELLOW
ORKA 0.32 0.85 0.20 57% BLOWGRINDCOVERELEVATMReadOut RED
IMRX 0.23 0.85 0.19 36% BLOWGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
DRUG 0.21 0.65 0.15 71% BLOWGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
TSHA 0.27 0.50 0.14 75% BLOWGRINDELEVATM YELLOW
NBR 0.11 0.65 0.13 43% BLOWGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
CAPR 0.09 0.65 0.13 22% BLOWGRINDADDELEVATMPDUFA YELLOW
PNRG 0.15 0.85 0.13 16% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
WLY 0.14 0.85 0.12 29% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings YELLOW
ASTH 0.14 0.85 0.12 25% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
PTGX 0.13 0.85 0.12 53% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
TDW 0.13 0.85 0.12 37% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
XPER 0.13 0.85 0.12 38% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
FTV 0.13 0.85 0.12 34% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
MBIN 0.13 0.85 0.12 36% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
TBI 0.11 0.85 0.12 32% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
KALU 0.10 0.85 0.12 39% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
ALCO 0.10 0.85 0.12 28% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
PLUS 0.09 0.85 0.12 34% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings YELLOW
TNC 0.07 0.85 0.11 21% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
PRK 0.06 0.85 0.11 21% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
ODC 0.06 0.85 0.11 15% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings YELLOW
SBFG 0.05 0.85 0.11 14% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ YELLOW
LSTR 0.05 0.85 0.11 11% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings YELLOW
MD 0.04 0.85 0.11 15% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
BXMT 0.03 0.85 0.11 20% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
GRDN 0.03 0.85 0.11 10% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
ABEO 0.20 0.65 0.11 37% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
SENS 0.19 0.65 0.11 6% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
NOV 0.17 0.65 0.10 44% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
BURL 0.14 0.65 0.10 43% DEADGRINDADDELEVEarnings YELLOW
LRN 0.13 0.65 0.10 14% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
XPRO 0.12 0.65 0.10 56% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
YELP 0.12 0.65 0.10 14% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
CNK 0.11 0.65 0.09 41% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
INN 0.10 0.65 0.09 37% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM* YELLOW
BTMD 0.10 0.65 0.09 28% DEADGRINDADDELEVEarningsILLIQ YELLOW
PRTA 0.10 0.65 0.09 31% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
MTUS 0.10 0.65 0.09 34% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
AVO 0.09 0.65 0.09 20% DEADGRINDADDELEVEarnings YELLOW
INVX 0.08 0.65 0.09 36% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
NTAP 0.08 0.65 0.09 24% DEADGRINDADDELEVEarnings YELLOW
HWKN 0.08 0.65 0.09 26% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
ECPG 0.05 0.65 0.09 21% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
SRCE 0.04 0.65 0.09 14% DEADGRINDADDELEVEarnings YELLOW
SLRC 0.02 0.65 0.08 8% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
Market Headlines
8 sources · 10:07 ET
US Conference Board: 12-month inflation expectations ticked downward but continued to be elevated. The percentage of consumers saying interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net rose to nearly 50%.
FJ 5m ago
The slight decrease in 12-month inflation expectations is a positive sign, but the fact that they remain elevated suggests that the market will continue to closely watch inflation data. A less aggressive Fed could boost stocks and risk assets, but higher rate expectations among consumers may lead to a more cautious approach. The upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and PCE inflation data will be crucial in determining the market's next move.
CNBC GM raises 2026 guidance amid $500 million tariff refund, topping Wall Street's earnings expectations
GM's raised guidance and $500 million tariff refund are likely to have a positive impact on the company's stock price and potentially the broader automotive sector. However, investors may focus on broader market conditions, which could limit the stock's upside. The ongoing trade negotiations and upcoming peer earnings reports will be important to monitor.
 42m ago
BBG AI Stocks & Big Tech Earnings: Why OpenAI Partners are Falling | The Pulse 4/28
The scrutiny on AI stocks and big tech earnings is likely to lead to a reassessment of valuations, potentially causing AI-related stocks to decline. This could have a ripple effect on the tech sector and growth stocks, leading to a reevaluation of growth versus value investments. The upcoming tech earnings reports and OpenAI developments will be crucial in determining the market's sentiment.
 1h ago
FT Bank of Japan holds rates and raises inflation forecast on Iran war turmoil
The Bank of Japan's decision to hold rates and raise its inflation forecast suggests that it is preparing for potential inflationary pressures. This could lead to a stronger yen and impact global bond yields and currency markets. The market will closely watch the BoJ's communication and global economic data to gauge the implications of this move.
 5h ago
FT Wall Street banks boost Treasury holdings to highest level since 2007
The increase in Treasury holdings by Wall Street banks could be perceived as a sign of impending market stress, which could lead to a reaction in Treasury yields and liquidity needs. Alternatively, it may be seen as a strategic positioning by banks, in which case the market reaction could be limited. The upcoming economic indicators and banks' Treasury holdings adjustments will be important to monitor.
 10h ago
BBG Stocks Fall as Report on OpenAI Fuels Tech Jitters: Markets Wrap
The decline in stocks following the OpenAI report suggests that the market is reassessing the tech sector's resilience. The tech sector and growth stocks may come under pressure, leading to a reevaluation of growth versus value investments. The upcoming tech earnings reports and OpenAI developments will be crucial in determining the market's sentiment and potential sector rotation.
 16h ago
BBG US Stocks Fall From Peak as OpenAI Sales Miss Report Drags Tech 2h ago
BBG Data Center-Linked Bonds Slide as OpenAI Report Fuels Worries 54m ago
Financial Wire
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:07 ET
FJ UAE Exits OPEC, Boosts Oil Supply
Systematic traders watch for potential market share shifts.
 1h ago
FJ Iran Warns on Strait of Hormuz
Geopolitical tensions may escalate, impacting crude flow.
 2m ago
FJ Fed Funds Rate Holds Steady
Interest rates unchanged, supporting economic growth.
 1h ago
FJ US Consumer Confidence Ticks Up
Consumer sentiment improves, potentially boosting spending.
 6m ago
FJ Global Economy Growth Forecast
Economic growth outlook slightly upgraded for 2026-2027.
 1h ago
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
Research Digest
10:09 ET
VRT $303.39 -5.9% Bullish
Composite 77 1M +28.4% 3M +70.4% 1Y +270.8% DOWN
Target $328
Vertiv (VRT) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), reflecting growing optimism about its earnings prospects, with analyst target at $328. The stock has shown strong growth, with 1M +28.4%, 3M +70.4%, and 1Y +270.8% returns. However, with a composite score of 77/100 and trend DOWN, market enthusiasm may be overextended.
24/ The Nasdaq Composite Jolted by OpenAI Stumble, Rising Oil Even as Tech Earnings Ramp Up
BBG OpenAI-Linked Stocks Slump on Report It Missed Key Targets
24/ NVIDIA Rises 4% to Record Highs on AI Buildout Momentum: Has the Catch-Up Trade Arrived?
MU $506.27 -3.5% Bullish
Composite 69 1M +46.8% 3M +27.9% 1Y +5.6% FLAT
Target $456
Micron (MU) stock is moving higher after Melius Research initiated coverage with a $700 price target. The memory stock has seen significant growth, with 1M +46.8% and 1Y +5.6% returns, and is in a recovery regime according to HMM. However, with high expectations around the Mag 7 earnings, MU's rally may stall if results disappoint.
YAH US stocks: Will Mag 7 earnings be make-or-break for market rally?
YAH Micron stock pops, Verizon reports positive subscriber growth
BAR This Hot Memory Stock Is Tumbling After Earnings. Why It Could Be an Opportunity.
INTC $83.63 -1.6% Bullish
Composite 64 1M +97.1% 3M +93.5% 1Y +323.9% FLAT
Target $75
Intel (INTC) is not mentioned in the provided headlines or summaries; the focus is on AI spending plans and earnings results from companies like Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft. However, Intel's stock has shown significant returns recently, with 1M +97.1%, 3M +93.5%, and 1Y +323.9%. The market may be mispricing INTC's prospects amidst the AI infrastructure build-out, but its actual performance may disappoint if it doesn't meet the AI demand.
YHO Brace for eye-popping AI spending plans when 'Magnificent 7' earnings roll in
YAH Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple earnings: What to expect
MOT LNG Prices Are Up a Third Since the War Began. Here's What It Means for Your Portfolio.
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Analyst Moves
10:10 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
NVDA Buy 66 / 4 / 1 2026-04-01
AMZN Buy 71 / 5 / 0 2026-04-01
MSFT Buy 59 / 6 / 0 2026-04-01
META Buy 64 / 8 / 0 2026-04-01
EXE Buy 29 / 4 / 0 2026-04-01
TBN Buy 8 / 2 / 0 2026-04-01
ROST Buy 19 / 6 / 0 2026-04-01
AAPL Buy 37 / 15 / 2 2026-04-01
IPO Calendar
10:10 ET
Date Company Range Size
Apr 28 BWGC BW Industrial Holdings Inc. — $21M
Apr 29 PS PERSHING SQUARE HOLDCO, L.P. — $1.7B
Apr 29 SBMT SILVER BOW MINING CORP. — $65M
Apr 30 AVLN Avalyn Pharma Inc. — $244M
May 05 RIKU RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd — $34M
Congressional Trades
2 disclosures · 14d
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
Member Ticker Type Amount
James E Hon Banks SBUX Sale $1,001 - $15,000
Robert E. Latta FMAO Purchase $1,001 - $15,000
Market Movers
FMP real-time
Top Gainers
SNBR +69.0% $3.73 ATER +63.3% $1.07 NEXR +39.5% $2.79 KFRC +37.1% $43.90 SBLX +27.1% $3.19
Top Losers
VISN -50.7% $9.63 ERAS -47.9% $9.97 AREB -44.6% $0.61 YAAS -39.6% $1.40 HTCO -38.8% $23.38
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 10:10 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
QQQ 333,053 151,559 181,494
1.20 		$660C 19,860 vol
QQQ: Slightly bearish flow with P/C ratio of 1.20, but $660C hot streak suggests bullish bets.
SPY 325,849 157,788 168,061
1.07 		$712C 36,273 vol
SPY: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with a P/C ratio of 1.07 and hot $712C activity.
NVDA 168,948 119,744 49,204
0.41 		$220C 18,862 vol
NVDA: Bullish call buying with P/C ratio of 0.41 and $220C leading the way with 18,862 vol.
TSLA 123,515 88,027 35,488
0.40 		$380C 18,484 vol
TSLA: Aggressive bullish call buying with P/C ratio of 0.40 and $380C seeing 18,484 vol.
AMD 55,028 34,089 20,939
0.61 		$350C 3,940 vol
AMD: Bullish flow with call-heavy P/C ratio of 0.61, $350C strike garnering notable interest.
Income Plays
10:09 ET
AAOI CSP Best Quality Very High · max 3% $11B · Earnings Feb 26
$110P 17 DTE +160.1% ann. +20.0% OTM Δ 0.18 POP 82%
Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI) has a reported price-to-sales ratio of 6.68X, prompting analysis on whether the stock is overvalued.
AAOI CSP Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $11B · Earnings Feb 26
$120P 17 DTE +211.1% ann. +12.7% OTM Δ 0.25 POP 75%
Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI) has a reported price-to-sales ratio of 6.68X, prompting analysis on whether the stock is overvalued.
BE CSP Safest Very High · max 3% $65B · Earnings Feb 05
$180P 17 DTE +77.5% ann. +19.9% OTM Δ 0.15 POP 85%
BE stock surges over 14% after-hours due to an expanded deal with Oracle, which includes Oracle's massive AI campus using Bloom's fuel cell power.
AMD CC Best Quality High · max 2% $529B · Earnings Feb 04
$345C 24 DTE +67.5% ann. +7.3% OTM Δ 0.10 POP 90%
AMD's stock is experiencing volatility ahead of its earnings report on May 5, with a recent downgrade and concerns over OpenAI's performance.
CLS CC Craziest Return Low · max 1% $42B · Earnings Jan 28
$390C 24 DTE +237.7% ann. +5.9% OTM Δ 0.15 POP 85%
Celestica's stock (CLS) tumbled 15% despite reporting an earnings beat, as investors had hoped for more, according to analysts.
SNDK CC Safest High · max 2% $152B · Earnings Jan 29
$1150C 38 DTE +94.0% ann. +13.1% OTM Δ 0.05 POP 95%
SanDisk (SNDK) is set to report its Q3 earnings this week, according to a report by Yahoo Finance.
Portfolio Hedge
 SPY $712 · QQQ $659 · VIX 18.6
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.6 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
 $705P 62d 1 $14.94 $1,494 8.8%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
 $725P 62d 1 $23.75 $2,375 14.0%
Aggressive
β=1.10
 $698P 62d 2 $12.95 $2,590 15.2%
Scenario: 1× SPY $725P 62d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario SPY Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $677 114% $98,221
Correction -10% $641 99% $97,531
Bear leg -15% $605 94% $96,842
Crash -20% $570 91% $96,153
QQQ Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
 $660P 62d 1 $21.52 $2,152 12.7%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
 $670P 62d 1 $26.02 $2,602 15.3%
Aggressive
β=1.10
 $645P 62d 2 $16.17 $3,234 19.0%
Scenario: 1× QQQ $670P 62d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario QQQ Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $626 103% $97,545
Correction -10% $593 90% $96,590
Bear leg -15% $560 86% $95,635
Crash -20% $527 84% $94,680
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:09 ET
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 28 (MTD) · Hit rate: 16/31 · Avg return: +3.2% · YTD: +1.8%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months
Return +39.8% Ann. 56.4% Sharpe 3.22 Max DD -5.0%
Win% 78% Alpha +49.3% SPY +5.3% $100K → $139,831
Full backtest · 2014-03–2026-03 · 145 months
Total 2,276% Ann. 30.0% Sharpe 1.63 Max DD -13.9%
Win% 72% Alpha +19.1% SPY 249% $100K → $2,375,845
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
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Ticker Wt% Return
XOM 24.7% -6.7%
JNJ 14.8% -6.4%
FBLA 11.1% +2.2%
EXE 7.3% -7.9%
ROST 5.4% +1.9%
TBN 4.5% -20.7%
WMT 4.3% +2.3%
CCNR 4.2% +1.9%
REGN 4.0% -3.9%
PLTR 2.9% -2.8%
CASY 2.7% +6.5%
AAUC 1.4% -3.0%
CNR 1.4% -12.5%
CTVA 1.0% -5.7%
LLY 0.9% -8.3%
PGR 0.9% +4.0%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
GLD 0.9% -4.1%
COST 0.9% -0.0%
PNRG 0.7% -4.1%
BWET 0.6% +32.5%
TSLA 0.5% -0.0%
AMZN 0.5% +23.7%
JPM 0.5% +5.8%
NVDA 0.5% +21.3%
MSFT 0.5% +15.5%
META 0.5% +16.5%
AVGO 0.5% +29.2%
GOOGL 0.5% +17.7%
BRK.B 0.5% -0.4%
AAPL 0.5% +5.5%
SOBO 0.3% +0.5%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
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