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Markets · Options · Signal
April 27, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:08 ET
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S&P 500
713.88
-0.01%
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Nasdaq
662.75
-0.19%
|
Dow
492.18
-0.01%
|
Russell 2k
277.26
+0.22%
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VIX
18.85
+0.75%
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20Y Bond
86.54
-0.20%
|
Gold
430.73
-0.58%
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Silver
68.20
-0.85%
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Oil
133.60
+0.91%
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USD
27.41
-0.24%
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CNN Fear & Greed
67
Greed
wk -4 · mo +53
|
AAII Survey 2026-04-22
▲ 46.0%
/
▼ 34.4%
/
19.5%
spread +11.6 · avg bull 46.0%
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 684.96 |
Res: 714.47 |
RSI: 69.9 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 620.28 |
Res: 664.51 |
RSI: 73.5 |
|
Econ Calendar |
7 high-impact · Tue Apr 28 – Wed Apr 29 · as of 10:08 ET |
| Tue Apr 28 |
| 10:00 |
US |
CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) — est. 89.4, prev. 91.8 |
| Wed Apr 29 |
| 08:00 |
DE |
German CPI (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.7%, prev. 1.1% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) — est. 0.5%, prev. -1.3% |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — prev. 1.925M |
| 14:00 |
US |
FOMC Statement |
| 14:00 |
US |
Fed Interest Rate Decision — est. 3.75%, prev. 3.75% |
| 14:30 |
US |
FOMC Press Conference |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.78% |
-5bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.31% |
-3bps |
| Spread |
+53bps |
Steepening |
| DXY |
98.35 |
-0.16% |
| VIX/3M |
0.88 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.79% |
+0.04% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2827
$121.69 · $430.51
|
z -0.11 · Neutral · ρ 86%
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| BTC |
$77,765 |
-1.2% |
| ETH |
$2,312 |
-2.5% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0297 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
10:12 ET |
|
Energy
+1.00%
XLE
|
Financials
+0.59%
XLF
|
Communication
+0.54%
XLC
|
|
Utilities
+0.45%
XLU
|
Health Care
+0.31%
XLV
|
Industrials
+0.04%
XLI
|
|
Cons. Staples
-0.10%
XLP
|
Materials
-0.19%
XLB
|
Real Estate
-0.26%
XLRE
|
|
Technology
-0.31%
XLK
|
Cons. Discr.
-0.96%
XLY
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In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a subtle risk-on rotation into Energy, Financials, and Communication, while Real Estate, Tech, and Cons. Discr. lag.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 15 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 15 days, with the S&P 500 and Dow edging down -0.01% while the Russell 2k eked out a 0.22% gain. Worth watching is the divergence between the steady equity market and rising oil prices, as noted by Bloomberg, which may put pressure on the Fed to maintain a hawkish tone, according to Deutsche Bank.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
|
Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:11 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
|
AMD
mixed
81
“600k USD Intel YOLO | Part 3 | +250%”
WSB 234 pts · 5/5 subs
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NVDA
mixed
35
“27 years old - Up 1100% on NVDA and finally broke $400k”
WSB 2116 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
GOOGL
mixed
30
“I believe in GOOGL”
WSB 1084 pts · 3/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
26
“Anyone else excited for the REAL WW3 on Wednesday at 4:01 PM?”
WSB 1913 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
R
mixed
17
“Daily Discussion Thread for April 27, 2026”
WSB 225 pts · 5/5 subs
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MU
mixed
16
“$193k gone in a day because I thought I could outsmart the market”
WSB 1464 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
mixed
15
“RDDT earnings DD, 2030 valuation”
WSB 296 pts · 5/5 subs
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MSFT
mixed
15
“Anyone else excited for the REAL WW3 on Wednesday at 4:01 PM?”
WSB 1913 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
Insider Wire |
1399 Form 4s filed · 10:09 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-22 to 2026-04-27
Cyber security executives are dumping ahead of earnings, led by heavy selling in CRWV and NET, with insiders unloading hundreds of millions in shares.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$130.4M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$117.4M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$75.8M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$36.2M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$33.3M |
| SELL |
NET |
Zatlyn Michelle President and Board Co-Chair |
$15.8M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:12 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
6.0d |
+0.4% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
31.1% |
4.6d |
+6.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.3% |
1.8d |
-1.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.4% |
3.0d |
-24.2% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.1% |
9.8d |
-3.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| CVNA |
13.5% |
4.9d |
+9.1% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
13.3% |
5.3d |
-1.9% |
MODERATE
|
| COIN |
12.8% |
2.3d |
+11.3% |
LOW
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|
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8071 scanned · 80 SEC-confirmed· 4 red · 58 yellow |
Nine-layer signal stack scored daily across full universe (Stage 1 ignition sweep + Stage 2 SEC confirm). Each symbol receives an executable verdict: WHAT to do, WHEN to enter, WHEN to invalidate, HOW MUCH to size (2% of 20-day ADV cap). Archegos / VW / CAR pattern.
Kill-Switch (42):
BNED active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-10TBPH scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)IMVT active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-06 · scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)IBTA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26BWIN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26GIII scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-05 (>30d out) [FMP]CAR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-27ORKA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-12CHWY scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-10 (>30d out) [FMP]SDSTW active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2025-12-17 (large facility ≥$500M)TSHA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-19 · scheduled Earnings: Earnings within 30d (2026-05-21) [FMP]NBR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-13WLY scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-16 (>30d out) [FMP]XPER active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26PVH scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-03 (>30d out) [FMP]PLUS scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-05-28 (>30d out) [FMP]ODC scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-04 (>30d out) [FMP]FCN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26 (large facility ≥$500M)LSTR scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)PBYI active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26GRDN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-20AWR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-20 (large facility ≥$500M)SLRC active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-24 (large facility ≥$500M)SENS active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-02CNK active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2025-11-05 (large facility ≥$500M)PRTA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-27 (large facility ≥$500M)BTMD scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)INVX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-24NTAP scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-05-28 (>30d out) [FMP]HMN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-27ECPG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25SRCE scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)CVNA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-18 (large facility ≥$500M)AMC active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-09W active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-19 (large facility ≥$500M)PTGX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25 (large facility ≥$500M)GME active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-24 · scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-09 (>30d out) [FMP]UPST active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-10 (large facility ≥$500M)HOOD active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-20 (large facility ≥$500M)RIVN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-12 (large facility ≥$500M)DKNG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-13 (large facility ≥$500M)PLTR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-17 (large facility ≥$500M)
Late-Stage Avoid (2):
FBYDAPLD
Illiquid-Pass (2):
AOUT ILLIQUID · ADV $0.36M — cap $7kBNAIW MICRO-ILLIQUID · ADV $8k — cap $0.2k
Full structural ranking · 62 flagged names (click to expand)
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| SSTK |
0.34 |
0.85 |
0.59 |
52% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| NNI |
0.36 |
0.65 |
0.50 |
69% |
PREGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| AOUT |
0.30 |
0.65 |
0.48 |
58% |
PREGRINDADDELEVILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| BNED |
0.42 |
0.85 |
0.48 |
82% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
RED
|
| PAY |
0.35 |
0.55 |
0.45 |
98% |
PREGRINDADD |
YELLOW
|
| TBPH |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
46% |
GRINDCOVERELEVNDA |
RED
|
| IMVT |
0.31 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
69% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATMNDA |
RED
|
| CBIO |
0.55 |
0.50 |
0.41 |
84% |
GRINDELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| OM |
0.24 |
0.85 |
0.41 |
68% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM*ILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| IBTA |
0.23 |
0.85 |
0.41 |
60% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| BWIN |
0.23 |
0.65 |
0.33 |
59% |
GRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| GIII |
0.21 |
0.65 |
0.32 |
36% |
GRINDADDELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| SIRI |
0.30 |
0.55 |
0.32 |
50% |
GRINDADDM&A |
YELLOW
|
| CAR |
0.56 |
0.45 |
0.31 |
78% |
COOLCOVERELEVLADDERATM |
YELLOW
|
| ORKA |
0.27 |
0.85 |
0.20 |
57% |
BLOWGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| TSHA |
0.31 |
0.50 |
0.14 |
75% |
BLOWGRINDELEVATMEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| NBR |
0.11 |
0.65 |
0.13 |
43% |
BLOWGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| ENR |
0.18 |
0.85 |
0.13 |
47% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| WLY |
0.14 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
29% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| ASTH |
0.14 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
25% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| XPER |
0.13 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
38% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| MBIN |
0.13 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
36% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| FTV |
0.12 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
34% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| PVH |
0.12 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
38% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM*Earnings |
YELLOW
|
| TBI |
0.11 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
32% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| UNIT |
0.11 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
28% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| KALU |
0.10 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
40% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| ALCO |
0.10 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
28% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| PLUS |
0.09 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
34% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| PJT |
0.08 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
23% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| MATW |
0.07 |
0.85 |
0.12 |
25% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| TNC |
0.07 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
21% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| PRK |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
21% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| ODC |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
15% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| FCN |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
33% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| TFII |
0.06 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
16% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| LSTR |
0.05 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
11% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| PBYI |
0.05 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
17% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| MD |
0.04 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
15% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| GRDN |
0.03 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
10% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| AWR |
0.03 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
24% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| SLRC |
0.02 |
0.85 |
0.11 |
8% |
DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| SENS |
0.19 |
0.65 |
0.11 |
6% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| SLF |
0.19 |
0.65 |
0.10 |
98% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVDDUP? |
YELLOW
|
| GHC |
0.17 |
0.65 |
0.10 |
33% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| NOV |
0.17 |
0.65 |
0.10 |
44% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| LRN |
0.13 |
0.65 |
0.10 |
14% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| YELP |
0.12 |
0.65 |
0.10 |
14% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| CNK |
0.11 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
41% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| POWI |
0.10 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
33% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| CE |
0.10 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
30% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| PRTA |
0.10 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
31% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| BTMD |
0.10 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
28% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVEarningsILLIQ |
YELLOW
|
| CARG |
0.10 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
27% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| KTB |
0.09 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
25% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| INVX |
0.08 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
36% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| FOX |
0.08 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
28% |
DEADGRINDADDELEV |
YELLOW
|
| NTAP |
0.08 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
24% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| HMN |
0.06 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
22% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| ECPG |
0.05 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
21% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
| SRCE |
0.04 |
0.65 |
0.09 |
14% |
DEADGRINDADDELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
|
Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:08 ET |
Deutsche Bank: Fed Set to Stay on Hold, With Risks of a More Hawkish Tone - FJElite
FJ 1h ago
The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates steady, but there's a risk of a more hawkish tone than expected. If the Fed signals a more aggressive policy stance, it could strengthen the US dollar and put pressure on equities and bond prices. Conversely, a dovish confirmation could lead to a relief rally in risk assets.
| BBG |
Stock Rally Falters Near Record High as Oil Climbs: Markets Wrap
The stock market rally is faltering near record highs as oil prices climb, suggesting that sustained high oil prices may hinder the rally. If oil prices continue to rise, growth fears may dominate, and risk assets could come under pressure. However, if oil prices stabilize, the equity rally may resume.
|
15h ago |
| FJ |
Deutsche Bank: FOMC Preview - FJElite
The FOMC meeting is likely to provide guidance on the future policy path, with a risk of a more hawkish tone than expected. A hawkish surprise could lead to a stronger US dollar, lower equities, and higher bond yields, while a dovish confirmation could have the opposite effect.
|
5h ago |
| FJ |
ING: The JPY - FJElite
The Japanese yen's future performance is uncertain, with factors such as economic data releases and the BoJ meeting influencing its movements. A sharp appreciation in the yen could lead to concerns about its impact on Japanese exports, while a sharp depreciation could prompt BoJ action to support the currency.
|
5h ago |
| BBG |
Still Seeing Positive Returns on 5-6 Year Bonds: Maybank Asset Mgmt
The bond market is still seeing positive returns on 5-6 year bonds, but this could change if bond yields rise or fall significantly. If bond yields decline, it could lead to a bond market rally and ease credit markets, while a bond market sell-off could tighten credit markets.
|
11h ago |
| FT |
Why flying less won’t do much to ease the oil crisis
Reducing flying may have a limited impact on oil demand, and oil prices may continue to rise due to sustained demand. If oil prices keep rising, it could lead to inflation concerns and put pressure on risk assets, while a stabilization in oil prices could ease growth concerns.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
MOO Imbalance
|
38m ago |
| FJ |
Moody's on China: Fiscal pressures to persist, govt's debt burden to continue to increase for foreseeable future but with contained downside risks.
|
4h ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:08 ET |
| FJ |
Iran Escalation Spurs Risk-Off
Geopolitical tensions may drive safe-haven demand
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Fed Holds Steady on Rates
Federal Reserve maintains effective Fed Funds rate at 3.64%
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Crude Supply Chain Disrupted
Iran halts steel exports, Strait of Hormuz remains blocked
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
BoJ and BoE Rate Decisions
BoJ and BoE expected to hold steady on interest rates
|
58m ago |
| FJ |
China's Debt Burden Persists
Moody's expects China's debt burden to continue growing
|
4h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
|
|
LRCX
$260.28
-2.8%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 68 |
1M +26.5% |
3M +20.2% |
1Y +277.7% |
FLAT |
Lam Research (LRCX) surged 4.9% after reporting FQ3 2026 revenue of $5.84 billion, driven by AI-related semiconductor demand. However, US lawmakers are advancing the MATCH Act, which could restrict LRCX's exports to China, a key market. The market may be overlooking the risks of US-China tensions, with LRCX's valuation and China exposure drawing scrutiny.
|
|
|
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAUC |
Buy |
6 / 3 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 28 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| Apr 29 |
PS
PERSHING SQUARE HOLDCO, L.P.
|
— |
— |
| Apr 29 |
SBMT
SILVER BOW MINING CORP.
|
— |
$65M |
| May 05 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
|
Congressional Trades |
2 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| James E Hon Banks |
SBUX |
Sale |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Robert E. Latta |
FMAO |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
HTCO
+87.5%
$21.09
YAAS
+56.0%
$1.45
CUE
+44.1%
$25.50
SGMT
+42.5%
$8.35
MANE
+41.5%
$96.00
Top Losers
CHSN
-61.3%
$0.07
CMPX
-57.3%
$2.15
POET
-47.3%
$7.96
FGI
-41.6%
$5.41
LABT
-39.7%
$4.43
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:12 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
412,495 |
187,170 |
225,325 |
1.20
|
$715C 37,327 vol |
| SPY: Slightly bearish flow with P/C > 1, but hot $715C suggests bullish bets. |
| QQQ |
348,066 |
113,025 |
235,041 |
2.08
|
$663C 22,836 vol |
| QQQ: Aggressive put buying, P/C = 2.08, indicates hedging or bearish view. |
| NVDA |
257,600 |
190,464 |
67,136 |
0.35
|
$212C 78,464 vol |
| NVDA: Call-heavy flow, P/C = 0.35, and hot $212C imply bullish positioning. |
| TSLA |
165,133 |
70,210 |
94,923 |
1.35
|
$370C 16,150 vol |
| TSLA: Mixed flow, P/C = 1.35, no clear directional signal. |
| AMD |
59,518 |
21,616 |
37,902 |
1.75
|
$350C 2,510 vol |
| AMD: Put-call ratio of 1.75 and low vol in $350C suggest cautious stance. |
|
|
VRT
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$120B
· Earnings Apr 22
· Div 0.1%
|
| $270P |
32 DTE |
+21.1% ann. |
+16.9% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
|
| Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) has a CSP Opportunity with a 270.0P price target and 21.1% annual return for 32DTE. |
|
AAOI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$11B
· Earnings Feb 26
|
| $135P |
18 DTE |
+226.8% ann. |
+10.2% OTM |
Δ 0.26 |
POP 74% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics' stock is being driven by concerns over an AI optical bottleneck, with one analyst warning of signs flashing. |
|
WDC
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
|
$138B
· Earnings Jan 29
· Div 0.1%
|
| $330P |
18 DTE |
+34.1% ann. |
+19.9% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
|
| Bank of America has raised its price objectives for Western Digital and Seagate, citing a clear path to higher earnings for both companies. |
|
SOXL
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$17B
· Div 0.0%
|
| $140C |
32 DTE |
+127.8% ann. |
+10.3% OTM |
Δ 0.06 |
POP 94% |
|
| SOXL, a 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF, is experiencing increased risk and volatility, making it a risky bet for investors. |
|
AAOI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$11B
· Earnings Feb 26
|
| $158C |
25 DTE |
+238.5% ann. |
+5.7% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics' stock is being driven by concerns over an AI optical bottleneck, with one analyst warning of signs flashing. |
|
MU
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$589B
· Earnings Mar 18
· Div 0.1%
|
| $580C |
39 DTE |
+53.1% ann. |
+12.5% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Micron Technology stock is seeing bullish options activity, with CSP opportunities showing annualized returns of up to 50.6% on the $450.0P 25DTE. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $714 · QQQ $663 · VIX 18.8 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.8 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$705P |
63d |
1 |
$14.70 |
$1,470 |
8.5% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$728P |
63d |
1 |
$23.16 |
$2,316 |
13.4% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$699P |
63d |
2 |
$13.03 |
$2,606 |
15.1% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $728P 63d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$678 |
117% |
$98,405 |
| Correction -10% |
$643 |
100% |
$97,725 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$607 |
95% |
$97,045 |
| Crash -20% |
$571 |
92% |
$96,365 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$660P |
63d |
1 |
$20.26 |
$2,026 |
11.7% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$675P |
63d |
1 |
$26.88 |
$2,688 |
15.6% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$650P |
63d |
2 |
$16.75 |
$3,350 |
19.4% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $675P 63d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$630 |
107% |
$97,606 |
| Correction -10% |
$596 |
92% |
$96,669 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$563 |
88% |
$95,732 |
| Crash -20% |
$530 |
85% |
$94,796 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:12 ET
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 27 (MTD) · Hit rate: 26/36 · Avg return: +7.6% · YTD: +3.8%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+44.0% |
Ann. |
62.6% |
Sharpe |
2.34 |
Max DD |
-10.9% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+55.5% |
SPY |
+5.3% |
$100K → |
$143,970 |
| Full backtest · 2014-03–2026-03 · 145 months |
| Total |
1,352% |
Ann. |
24.8% |
Sharpe |
1.20 |
Max DD |
-15.9% |
| Win% |
62% |
Alpha |
+13.9% |
SPY |
249% |
$100K → |
$1,451,739 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| XOM |
24.7% |
-6.6% |
| JNJ |
14.8% |
-6.8% |
| EXPE |
7.5% |
+10.0% |
| CNL |
7.3% |
+8.8% |
| AUGO |
6.8% |
+1.4% |
| AAUC |
4.3% |
+2.5% |
| WMT |
4.3% |
+3.5% |
| GEV |
3.1% |
+24.8% |
| PLTR |
2.9% |
-2.0% |
| BTSG |
2.8% |
+14.3% |
| BWET |
2.7% |
+22.4% |
| TBN |
1.7% |
-19.6% |
| EXE |
1.6% |
-7.4% |
| VIK |
1.2% |
+5.2% |
| TEL |
1.1% |
+0.5% |
| EA |
1.0% |
-0.3% |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-7.3% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
-1.6% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+4.7% |
| COST |
0.9% |
+1.7% |
| SFD |
0.8% |
+2.1% |
| AIS |
0.6% |
+34.0% |
| GRDN |
0.6% |
+3.9% |
| EMEQ |
0.6% |
+20.1% |
| MGNR |
0.5% |
+3.8% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-3.9% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+4.5% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+19.8% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+13.9% |
| META |
0.5% |
+16.2% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+5.0% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-1.1% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+33.5% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+24.3% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+17.5% |
| CHPS |
0.4% |
+32.4% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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