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MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
April 24, 2026 · All times ET
Regime RECOVERY Day 14
Market Snapshot · 10:07 ET
S&P 500
709.49
+0.15%
Nasdaq
657.92
+1.00%
Dow
490.97
-0.41%
Russell 2k
274.89
-0.23%
VIX
19.19
-0.62%
20Y Bond
86.59
+0.05%
Gold
433.57
+0.59%
Silver
68.65
+0.39%
Oil
133.35
-1.02%
USD
27.50
-0.09%
CNN Fear & Greed
67 Greed
wk -1 · mo +49
AAII Survey 2026-04-22
▲ 46.0% / ▼ 34.4% / 19.5%
spread +11.6 · avg bull 46.0%
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bullish Sup: 680.79 Res: 712.39 RSI: 68.5
QQQ Trend: Bullish Sup: 615.04 Res: 659.70 RSI: 73.5
Macro Snapshot
10:10 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 3.83% +4bps
10Y Yield 4.34% +4bps
Spread +51bps Normal
DXY 98.66 -0.14%
VIX/3M 0.89 Contango
HY OAS 6.75% -0.02%
BZ–WTI 0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
GDXJ–GLD 0.2838
$123.21 · $434.14
z -0.03 · Neutral · ρ 85%
BTC $77,973 -0.4%
ETH $2,312 -0.8%
ETH/BTC 0.0296
Sector Rotation · Today
10:10 ET
Technology
+1.78%
XLK
Cons. Discr.
+0.25%
XLY
Real Estate
+0.10%
XLRE
Cons. Staples
+0.02%
XLP
Utilities
-0.01%
XLU
Materials
-0.59%
XLB
Financials
-0.61%
XLF
Energy
-0.81%
XLE
Industrials
-0.97%
XLI
Health Care
-1.29%
XLV
Communication
-1.42%
XLC
In the RECOVERY regime, tech and consumer discretionary sectors lead, while defensives like healthcare and comms lag, signaling a risk-on rotation.
Regime Timeline
HMM Regime Detection — SPY 90-day timeline
From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 14 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 14 days, with the S&P 500 up 0.15% and Nasdaq up 1.00% from the previous close, while the Dow and Russell 2k lagged with moves of -0.41% and -0.23%, respectively. Worth watching is the divergence between the Nasdaq's strong performance and the Dow's decline, as Intel's blockbuster sales view drove the tech-heavy index, while Goldman leading record renminbi borrowing by US banks may signal a shift in global financial flows.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
“RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/116458328588094795https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2047224780374610091?s=10”
7h ago
“Trump admin live updates: Prez announces Israel-Lebanon cease-fire extended by 3 weeks: https://nypost.com/2026/04/20/us-news/trump-admin-live-updates-april-20-21-22-23-24/”
10h ago
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:09 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
ANY mixed 47
“I prefer the backside when it comes to squeezes 👹🫰🏼🍑”
WSB 764 pts · 5/5 subs
INTC mixed 20
“Grandma giving handy in heaven. Praise be to regards. INTC!!! Intels incels unit…”
WSB 1327 pts · 5/5 subs
META mixed 20
“Meta to Lay Off 10 Percent of Work Force in A.I. Push”
WSB 1120 pts · 5/5 subs
AMD mixed 19
“AMD. Another week. Another million. +$7.7M”
WSB 280 pts · 5/5 subs
R mixed 15
“Daily Discussion Thread for April 24, 2026”
WSB 174 pts · 5/5 subs
SPY mixed 13
“Position went 10x to 70k while i was asleep”
WSB 3637 pts · 5/5 subs
NICE mixed 13
“Sympathy play was a nice surprise this morning, easy $15k”
WSB 10 pts · 5/5 subs
MU bullish 11
“My chip portfolio goes 🚀. My technical analysis was 'computer need chip, chip go…”
WSB 551 pts · 4/5 subs
Insider Wire
1591 Form 4s filed · 10:07 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-19 to 2026-04-24
Executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with a cluster of significant insider sales in tech and software, led by CrowdStrike's (CRWV) C-Suite trio shedding $200M+.
Ticker Insider Value
SELL CRWV Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer $130.4M
SELL CRWV Intrator Michael N CEO and President $35.8M
SELL CRWV McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer $33.3M
SELL ROKU Collier Charles President, Roku Media $23.7M
SELL NET Zatlyn Michelle President and Board Co-Chair $15.8M
SELL TDG Howley W Nicholas Insider $12.8M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 10:11 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
UPST 33.3% 5.4d +11.0% HIGH
BYND 31.0% 5.2d -1.3% HIGH
SMCI 18.5% 1.9d -2.2% ELEVATED
LQDA 16.6% 8.8d -0.5% ELEVATED
GME 15.3% 11.1d -4.3% ELEVATED
AMC 15.3% 3.4d -28.4% ELEVATED
CVNA 14.6% 5.3d +16.9% MODERATE
RIVN 13.3% 4.9d +0.6% MODERATE
Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor
8072 scanned · 94 SEC-confirmed· 4 red · 71 yellow
Nine-layer signal stack scored daily across full universe (Stage 1 ignition sweep + Stage 2 SEC confirm). Each symbol receives an executable verdict: WHAT to do, WHEN to enter, WHEN to invalidate, HOW MUCH to size (2% of 20-day ADV cap). Archegos / VW / CAR pattern.
Kill-Switch (52): BNED active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-10IMVT active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-06 · scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)CBRL scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)SKYH active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-19CAR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-27GRND active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-02 (large facility ≥$500M)REX scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-05-27 (>30d out) [FMP]CHWY scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-10 (>30d out) [FMP]SRZNW active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-30 (large facility ≥$500M)RCUS active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25 (large facility ≥$500M) · scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)SDSTW active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2025-12-17 (large facility ≥$500M) · scheduled Earnings: Earnings within 30d (2026-05-20) [FMP]DRUG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-01-09TSHA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-19 · scheduled Earnings: Earnings within 30d (2026-05-21) [FMP]ORKA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-12NBR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-13PTGX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25 (large facility ≥$500M)XPER active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26WEX scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)PLUS scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-05-28 (>30d out) [FMP]MLAB scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-05-27 (>30d out) [FMP]FCN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26 (large facility ≥$500M)LSTR scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)PBYI active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26SRCE scheduled Earnings: Earnings within 30d (2026-04-23)ALB active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-11 (large facility ≥$500M)SLRC active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-24 (large facility ≥$500M)SENS active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-02PCRX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26EPC active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2025-11-18CNK active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2025-11-05 (large facility ≥$500M)PRTA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-27 (large facility ≥$500M)BTMD scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)NTAP scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-05-28 (>30d out) [FMP]SAH active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-23 (large facility ≥$500M)BXP active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-06 (large facility ≥$500M)ECPG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25UTI scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)ETON scheduled NDA: NDA language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)TGTX active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-27 (large facility ≥$500M)BLMN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-25 (large facility ≥$500M)UNFI scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-09 (>30d out) [FMP]HOG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-26 (large facility ≥$500M) · scheduled Earnings: Earnings language in recent 8-K (no date parsed)PVH scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-03 (>30d out) [FMP]CVNA active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-18 (large facility ≥$500M)AMC active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-09W active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-19 (large facility ≥$500M)GME active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-03-24 · scheduled Earnings: Earnings scheduled 2026-06-09 (>30d out) [FMP]UPST active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-10 (large facility ≥$500M)HOOD active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-20 (large facility ≥$500M)RIVN active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-12 (large facility ≥$500M)DKNG active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-13 (large facility ≥$500M)PLTR active ATM: Active ATM — last touched 2026-02-17 (large facility ≥$500M)
Late-Stage Avoid (3): CRMLWCBIOAPLD
Illiquid-Pass (4): LPA MICRO-ILLIQUID · ADV $89k — cap $1.8kBNAIW MICRO-ILLIQUID · ADV $8k — cap $0.2kRMBI ILLIQUID · ADV $0.40M — cap $8kKPLT ILLIQUID · ADV $0.11M — cap $2k
Full structural ranking · 75 flagged names (click to expand)
Ticker Struct Ignit Final Hldrs Flags Bucket
FLGT 0.34 0.85 0.60 47% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
SSTK 0.34 0.85 0.59 52% PREGRINDCOVERELEV RED
LCID 0.55 0.10 0.55 76% PREELEVATM* YELLOW
PSNY 0.45 0.65 0.55 98% PREGRINDADDELEVDDUP? YELLOW
BNED 0.42 0.85 0.48 82% GRINDCOVERELEVATM RED
PAY 0.35 0.55 0.45 98% PREGRINDADD YELLOW
IMVT 0.31 0.85 0.44 69% GRINDCOVERELEVATMNDA RED
OM 0.24 0.85 0.41 68% GRINDCOVERELEVATM*ILLIQ YELLOW
HGTY 0.20 0.85 0.39 98% GRINDCOVERELEVDDUP? YELLOW
AMCX 0.31 0.65 0.36 47% GRINDADDELEV YELLOW
CBRL 0.30 0.65 0.35 40% GRINDADDELEVEarnings YELLOW
FLWS 0.24 0.55 0.35 40% IGNGRINDADD YELLOW
LPA 0.36 0.55 0.34 83% GRINDADDMICRO YELLOW
SKYH 0.25 0.65 0.34 68% GRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
SIRI 0.30 0.55 0.32 50% GRINDADDM&A YELLOW
CAR 0.56 0.45 0.31 78% COOLCOVERELEVLADDERATM YELLOW
HRMY 0.26 0.55 0.30 39% GRINDADD YELLOW
JBLU 0.25 0.55 0.30 40% GRINDADD YELLOW
GRND 0.22 0.55 0.29 76% GRINDADDATM YELLOW
REX 0.05 0.55 0.27 27% IGNGRINDADDATM*Earnings YELLOW
CBIO 0.55 0.50 0.19 84% BLOWGRINDELEVATM* YELLOW
RCUS 0.20 0.85 0.18 54% BLOWGRINDCOVERELEVATMNDA YELLOW
DRUG 0.22 0.65 0.15 71% BLOWGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
TSHA 0.31 0.50 0.14 75% BLOWGRINDELEVATMEarnings YELLOW
ORKA 0.27 0.50 0.13 57% BLOWGRINDELEVATM YELLOW
NBR 0.11 0.65 0.13 43% BLOWGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
ENR 0.18 0.85 0.13 47% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
FOXA 0.15 0.85 0.12 28% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
ASTH 0.14 0.85 0.12 25% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
PTGX 0.14 0.85 0.12 53% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
XPER 0.13 0.85 0.12 38% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
FTV 0.12 0.85 0.12 34% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
TBI 0.11 0.85 0.12 32% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
WEX 0.10 0.85 0.12 25% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings YELLOW
KALU 0.10 0.85 0.12 40% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
ALCO 0.10 0.85 0.12 28% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
PLUS 0.09 0.85 0.12 34% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings YELLOW
MLAB 0.08 0.85 0.12 26% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM*Earnings YELLOW
MATW 0.07 0.85 0.12 25% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM* YELLOW
NTCT 0.06 0.85 0.11 21% DEADGRINDCOVERELEV YELLOW
FCN 0.06 0.85 0.11 33% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
LSTR 0.05 0.85 0.11 11% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings YELLOW
PBYI 0.05 0.85 0.11 17% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
SRCE 0.04 0.85 0.11 14% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVEarnings YELLOW
RMBI 0.04 0.85 0.11 11% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ YELLOW
ALB 0.03 0.85 0.11 22% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
SLRC 0.02 0.85 0.11 8% DEADGRINDCOVERELEVATM YELLOW
SENS 0.19 0.65 0.11 6% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
SLF 0.19 0.65 0.10 98% DEADGRINDADDELEVDDUP? YELLOW
KPLT 0.18 0.65 0.10 32% DEADGRINDADDELEVILLIQ YELLOW
HUN 0.13 0.65 0.10 16% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
PCRX 0.13 0.65 0.10 27% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
EPC 0.12 0.65 0.10 42% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
CNK 0.11 0.65 0.09 41% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
POWI 0.10 0.65 0.09 33% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
CE 0.10 0.65 0.09 30% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
INN 0.10 0.65 0.09 37% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM* YELLOW
MTUS 0.10 0.65 0.09 36% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
PRTA 0.10 0.65 0.09 31% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
BTMD 0.10 0.65 0.09 28% DEADGRINDADDELEVEarningsILLIQ YELLOW
CARG 0.10 0.65 0.09 27% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
KTB 0.09 0.65 0.09 25% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
NTAP 0.08 0.65 0.09 24% DEADGRINDADDELEVEarnings YELLOW
OII 0.06 0.65 0.09 21% DEADGRINDADDELEV YELLOW
SAH 0.05 0.65 0.09 16% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
BXP 0.05 0.65 0.09 26% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
ECPG 0.05 0.65 0.09 21% DEADGRINDADDELEVATM YELLOW
UTI 0.05 0.65 0.09 14% DEADGRINDADDELEVEarnings YELLOW
ETON 0.10 0.55 0.08 24% DEADGRINDADDNDA YELLOW
TGTX 0.09 0.55 0.08 27% DEADGRINDADDATM YELLOW
BLMN 0.08 0.55 0.08 31% DEADGRINDADDATM YELLOW
UNFI 0.07 0.55 0.08 28% DEADGRINDADDEarnings YELLOW
HOG 0.07 0.55 0.08 13% DEADGRINDADDATMEarnings YELLOW
PVH 0.12 0.50 0.08 38% DEADGRINDELEVATM*Earnings YELLOW
AGM 0.05 0.55 0.08 19% DEADGRINDADD YELLOW
Market Headlines
8 sources · 10:07 ET
Citi: Turmoil in the Middle East—Assessing the Longer-term Implications - FJElite
FJ 1h ago
The turmoil in the Middle East could lead to higher oil prices and increased market volatility, potentially causing a risk-off sentiment that might drive down equities and increase demand for safe-haven assets. Keep an eye on crude price movements and any diplomatic efforts that could lead to a de-escalation. If the situation escalates, we might see a significant reevaluation of risk across markets.
BBG Nasdaq 100 Jumps as Intel’s Blockbuster Sales View Impresses
Intel's blockbuster sales view has impressed investors, likely boosting confidence in the tech sector and potentially leading to a broad-based tech rally. This could increase investor appetite for risk, but it's essential to monitor upcoming tech earnings reports to assess the sustainability of this trend. A subsequent decline in tech stocks or failure to meet future earnings expectations could stall this rally.
1h ago
FT Goldman leads record renminbi borrowing by US banks
Goldman leading record renminbi borrowing by US banks may signal increased global financial integration, potentially strengthening the renminbi and increasing interest in Chinese financial markets. However, regulatory pushback or economic instability could choke this story. Watch for renminbi exchange rates and Chinese market performance to gauge the impact.
10h ago
FJ MOO Imbalance 36m ago
FJ Russia has ideas to break the deadlock. Oman ties may help resolve the crisis - source familiar with regional talks
Russia's ideas to break the deadlock in the Middle East, potentially aided by Oman's ties, could lead to a de-escalation and decreased oil prices, boosting risk assets. However, if these efforts fail, we might see oil prices rise and risk-off sentiment return. Monitor diplomatic progress and oil price movements closely.
31m ago
FT Middle East crisis day 55 as it happened: Donald Trump says Israel and Lebanon will extend ceasefire by 3 weeks
The extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon could lead to decreased market volatility and lower oil prices, potentially causing equities to rise and safe-haven assets to decline. However, the fragility of the ceasefire is a systemic constraint, and a rapid breakdown could lead to a relief rally reversal. Watch for signs of lasting peace or renewed conflict.
15h ago
FJ US Secretary of War Hegseth: Iran has an open window to choose wisely at the negotiating table 1h ago
FJ The DOJ expected to drop criminal probe of Fed chair Powell as soon as Friday - ABC 1m ago
Financial Wire
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:07 ET
FJ Iran FM Visits Pakistan Amid US Tensions
Iranian FM's visit to Pakistan may ease regional tensions
1h ago
FJ US War Secretary Warns Iran on Blockade
US to maintain Strait of Hormuz blockade until Iran complies
1h ago
FJ Fed Chair Powell Probe Dropped
No charges for Powell, easing market uncertainty
1m ago
FJ Oil Market on Edge Amid Iran-US Tensions
Escalating tensions may disrupt oil supplies, driving prices
1h ago
FJ University of Michigan Inflation Data Released
Inflation expectations ease, supporting rate stability
7m ago
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
Research Digest
10:10 ET
STHH $100.63 +2.3% Bearish
Steinhoff International Holdings N.V. (STHH) has no directly available news; however, a MarketBeat page for STMicroelectronics NV ADRhedged Review and Aggregate Rating (STHH) exists. STMicroelectronics is listed on marketscreener.com. No actionable information on STHH is provided.
MAR STMicroelectronics NV ADRhedged Review and Aggregate Rating (STHH) - MarketBeat
MAR Steinhoff International Holdings N.V. Stock (STHH.F) - Quote OTC Markets - marketscreener.com
LRCX $272.73 +5.5% Bullish
Composite 68 1M +10.8% 3M +18.6% 1Y +287.5% UP
Target $291
Lam Research (LRCX) reported Q3 earnings at the upper end of guidance, with EPS exceeding the top end of the company's outlook, and CEO Timothy Archer citing a "solid start" to calendar year 2026. JPMorgan raised its price target to $315 from $300, citing a reset near-term bar and multi-year wafer fab equipment framework. The market may be underestimating LRCX's growth potential amid AI-driven DRAM demand outpacing supply.
YHO Chip stocks just added $3 trillion in market value — but are the most overextended in decades: Chart
INV Stock Market Today: Dow Slips, Nasdaq Gains As Intel Soars On Earnings (Live Coverage)
24/ ‘DRAM Will Double or Triple From Here’ as AI Demand Outpaces Supply Chain Capacity
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Analyst Moves
10:11 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
NVDA Buy 66 / 4 / 1 2026-04-01
AMZN Buy 71 / 5 / 0 2026-04-01
AUGO Buy 11 / 1 / 0 2026-04-01
WMT Buy 44 / 4 / 0 2026-04-01
CNL Buy 10 / 1 / 0 2026-04-01
MSFT Buy 59 / 6 / 0 2026-04-01
META Buy 64 / 8 / 0 2026-04-01
WAB Buy 13 / 5 / 0 2026-04-01
IPO Calendar
10:11 ET
Date Company Range Size
Apr 24 XE X-Energy, Inc. — $936M
Apr 28 BWGC BW Industrial Holdings Inc. — $21M
Apr 29 PS PERSHING SQUARE HOLDCO, L.P. — —
May 05 RIKU RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd — $34M
Congressional Trades
1 disclosures · 14d
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
Member Ticker Type Amount
James E Hon Banks SBUX Sale $1,001 - $15,000
Market Movers
FMP real-time
Top Gainers
SCNI +90.9% $0.87 ENVB +49.8% $6.02 LIDR +49.1% $2.52 LINT +46.5% $104.90 GMEX +37.0% $0.51
Top Losers
SNOA -45.6% $0.98 CHSN -45.0% $1.37 SKLZ -36.9% $7.85 AIXI -28.6% $0.77 NPT -24.0% $1.39
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 10:10 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 403,741 149,077 254,664
1.71
$711C 27,680 vol
SPY: Bearish flow, put/call 1.71 suggests hedge or directional put bet, with $711C seeing unusual call buying.
QQQ 316,442 133,886 182,556
1.36
$660C 20,051 vol
QQQ: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with P/C 1.36 and $660C leading call activity.
TSLA 308,329 223,284 85,045
0.38
$380C 31,924 vol
TSLA: Bullish call buying, low P/C 0.38 and $380C hot, indicating potential upside bet.
NVDA 224,668 174,166 50,502
0.29
$205C 65,990 vol
NVDA: Aggressive bullish call buying, P/C 0.29 and $205C seeing 65,990 vol, suggests directional bet.
AMD 114,025 64,746 49,279
0.76
$360C 12,832 vol
AMD: Neutral to bullish flow, with P/C 0.76 and $360C leading call activity, possible upside play.
Income Plays
10:10 ET
FIX CSP Best Quality Very High · max 3% $62B · Earnings Feb 19 · Div 0.2%
$1490P 21 DTE +35.2% ann. +17.7% OTM Δ 0.16 POP 84%
Comfort Systems USA Inc. (FIX) stock is rising after beating Q1 earnings and revenue estimates due to growth in technology demand.
LWLG CSP Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $2B · Earnings Mar 20
$12P 21 DTE +152.1% ann. +11.5% OTM Δ 0.30 POP 70%
Lightwave Logic's stock is up 17% today following the integration news with GDSFactory and GlobalFoundries, and also boosts its at-the-market stock program.
FORM CSP Safest High · max 2% $12B · Earnings Feb 04
$125P 21 DTE +45.9% ann. +19.9% OTM Δ 0.22 POP 78%
FormFactor's stock is up today, according to Yahoo Finance, though no specific catalyst or reason for the increase was provided in the headline.
MU CC Best Quality High · max 2% $563B · Earnings Mar 18 · Div 0.1%
$540C 21 DTE +80.1% ann. +7.6% OTM Δ 0.08 POP 92%
Micron Technology (MU) stock is seeing bullish options activity, with CSP opportunities showing high annual returns up to 41.4% on the 430.0P 28DTE.
BWET CC Craziest Return Low · max 1% $31M
$145C 21 DTE +254.4% ann. +5.1% OTM Δ 0.17 POP 83%
Lucid's stock is declining due to investor concerns over dilution despite a $500M Uber bet and 35,000-vehicle robotaxi deal.
LITE CC Safest High · max 2% $61B · Earnings Feb 03
$955C 42 DTE +79.4% ann. +13.4% OTM Δ 0.06 POP 94%
Lumentum's stock price is down 3.1% as investors consider a recent note-for-stock exchange dilution and position ahead of earnings.
Portfolio Hedge
SPY $710 · QQQ $659 · VIX 19.1
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 19.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$705P 54d 1 $14.77 $1,477 10.0%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$725P 54d 1 $23.17 $2,317 15.7%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$690P 54d 2 $10.82 $2,164 14.6%
Scenario: 1× SPY $725P 54d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario SPY Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $674 119% $98,501
Correction -10% $639 101% $97,800
Bear leg -15% $603 95% $97,099
Crash -20% $568 92% $96,398
QQQ Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
$660P 54d 1 $20.17 $2,017 13.6%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
$670P 54d 1 $24.68 $2,468 16.7%
Aggressive
β=1.10
$645P 54d 2 $14.90 $2,980 20.1%
Scenario: 1× QQQ $670P 54d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario QQQ Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $626 104% $97,702
Correction -10% $593 91% $96,745
Bear leg -15% $560 86% $95,789
Crash -20% $527 84% $94,833
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:10 ET
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 24 (MTD) · Hit rate: 31/42 · Avg return: +9.0% · YTD: +5.4%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months
Return +65.0% Ann. 94.9% Sharpe 2.70 Max DD -8.5%
Win% 89% Alpha +87.0% SPY +5.9% $100K → $164,968
Full backtest · 2012-04–2026-03 · 168 months
Total 2,274% Ann. 25.4% Sharpe 1.06 Max DD -20.4%
Win% 64% Alpha +14.3% SPY 334% $100K → $2,374,125
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
XOM 24.7% -7.7%
JNJ 14.8% -6.6%
CNL 7.6% +11.7%
AUGO 5.8% +0.9%
WAB 5.1% +4.1%
WMT 4.3% +5.1%
NUE 3.6% +21.6%
AAUC 2.8% +2.2%
BWET 2.6% +24.8%
STLD 2.5% +21.4%
ORR 1.8% -3.7%
GILD 1.8% -6.6%
TBN 1.7% -20.3%
LQDA 1.7% -2.4%
CFG 1.2% +6.6%
TERN 1.2% +0.1%
GEV 1.2% +26.0%
XIDV 1.0% +2.0%
LLY 0.9% -7.2%
COST 0.9% +1.5%
PGR 0.9% +4.2%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
GLD 0.9% -1.0%
ASMH 0.9% +3.3%
SFD 0.8% +2.0%
AAOI 0.8% +67.2%
GRDN 0.6% -0.3%
FEIM 0.6% +10.0%
JPM 0.5% +4.9%
AMZN 0.5% +23.0%
TSLA 0.5% -2.1%
AVGO 0.5% +32.2%
BRK.B 0.5% -1.9%
GOOGL 0.5% +13.9%
NVDA 0.5% +15.1%
AAPL 0.5% +6.2%
MSFT 0.5% +13.4%
META 0.5% +15.2%
AIS 0.4% +32.4%
ANAB 0.4% +34.0%
BTSG 0.4% +13.3%
EMEQ 0.4% +16.9%
BRAZ 0.4% +4.0%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
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