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Markets · Options · Signal
April 23, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 11:20 ET
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S&P 500
712.14
+0.13%
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Nasdaq
656.47
+0.21%
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Dow
494.40
-0.07%
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Russell 2k
277.54
+0.38%
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VIX
18.85
-0.37%
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20Y Bond
87.01
+0.31%
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Gold
434.92
-0.08%
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Silver
69.16
-1.72%
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Oil
130.52
+0.87%
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USD
27.48
-0.02%
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CNN Fear & Greed
69
Greed
wk +6 · mo +55
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AAII Survey 2026-04-22
▲ 46.0%
/
▼ 34.4%
/
19.5%
spread +11.6 · avg bull 46.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 677.72 |
Res: 712.39 |
RSI: 70.8 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 611.05 |
Res: 656.56 |
RSI: 74.6 |
|
Econ Calendar |
3 high-impact · Thu Apr 23 – Thu Apr 23 · as of 11:20 ET |
| Thu Apr 23 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 211K, prev. 208K |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) — est. 52.5, prev. 52.3 |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) — est. 50.5, prev. 49.8 |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.79% |
+1bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.30% |
+0bps |
| Spread |
+51bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
98.60 |
+0.01% |
| VIX/3M |
0.89 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.75% |
-0.02% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2848
$123.87 · $434.88
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z +0.04 · Neutral · ρ 84%
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| BTC |
$78,463 |
+0.3% |
| ETH |
$2,339 |
-1.5% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0298 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
11:23 ET |
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Utilities
+1.85%
XLU
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Industrials
+1.68%
XLI
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Cons. Staples
+1.02%
XLP
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Real Estate
+0.87%
XLRE
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Communication
+0.09%
XLC
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Energy
-0.09%
XLE
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Technology
-0.28%
XLK
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Health Care
-0.33%
XLV
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Financials
-0.38%
XLF
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Cons. Discr.
-0.41%
XLY
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Materials
-0.42%
XLB
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In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a defensive tilt with Utilities, Industrials, and Cons. Staples leading, while Financials, Cons. Discr., and Materials lag.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 13 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a recovery regime for 13 days, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.13% and 0.21% respectively, while the Dow lagged with a 0.07% decline. Worth watching is the divergence between the jump in oil prices on US-Iran tensions and the 62% plunge in Avis shares over two days, suggesting potential mispricing in select stocks sensitive to energy costs.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“Very true!!! President DJTMarc Thiessen: Trump doesn’t need a deal to get what he wants from Iran: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/22/trump-best-move-iran-negotiations/”
1h ago
$USO$XLEDefense
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“Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know! The infighting is between the “Hardliners,” who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the “Moderates,” who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY! We have total control over the Strait of Hormuz. No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy. It is “Sealed up Tight,” until such time as Iran is able to make a DEAL!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
2h ago
$USO$XLEDefense
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“Mollie Hemingway, an extraordinarily talented writer, highly respected commentator, and a truly good person, has written a powerful new book, “Alito: The Justice Who Reshaped the Supreme Court and Restored the Constitution.” Justice Alito understands the Wisdom and Courage required to Uphold the Rule of Law, and Honor our Constitution, as our Founders intended. He is an incredible Justice, and will go down as one of the best, EVER! Everyone would do well to read this book, and learn from his example. Get your copy today: https://a.co/d/00SMqkvt”
20h ago
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 11:22 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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R
mixed
16
“Daily Discussion Thread for April 23, 2026”
WSB 190 pts · 5/5 subs
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NVDA
bullish
14
“2M Gain, $27 NVDA, Not even sure what to do with this.”
WSB 2729 pts · 4/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
12
“$100k shorting COIN on boring 2x Inverse Leverage 🤪”
WSB 46 pts · 5/5 subs
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CAT
mixed
12
“Bers when SPY loses 13-day win streak”
WSB 2035 pts · 3/5 subs
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MU
bullish
10
“My chip portfolio goes 🚀. My technical analysis was 'computer need chip, chip go…”
WSB 308 pts · 3/5 subs
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MSFT
mixed
10
“Gain Porn from epic day - Thank you MU, MSFT and ANET - Enjoy.”
WSB 644 pts · 5/5 subs
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VOO
bullish
10
“Today is the day I finally accepted the truth about stocks.”
STK 2968 pts · 3/5 subs
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ONTO
bearish
9
“Rockets Are Worth Their Weight in Gold (Aka RKLB to $519).”
WSB 915 pts · 4/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1180 Form 4s filed · 11:20 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-18 to 2026-04-23
Executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with a flurry of large insider sales across tech and growth stocks, led by CRWV's Chief Strategy Officer offloading $130M.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$130.4M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Mohan Jitendra Chief Executive Officer |
$57.9M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$33.3M |
| SELL |
ROKU |
Collier Charles President, Roku Media |
$23.7M |
| SELL |
NET |
Zatlyn Michelle President and Board Co-Chair |
$15.8M |
| SELL |
TDG |
Howley W Nicholas Insider |
$12.8M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 11:23 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.3% |
5.4d |
+11.0% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
31.0% |
5.2d |
-1.3% |
HIGH
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| SMCI |
18.5% |
1.9d |
-2.2% |
ELEVATED
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| LQDA |
16.6% |
8.8d |
-0.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.3% |
11.1d |
-4.3% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.3% |
3.4d |
-28.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| CVNA |
14.6% |
5.3d |
+16.9% |
MODERATE
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| RIVN |
13.3% |
4.9d |
+0.6% |
MODERATE
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 11:20 ET |
Blackstone Sees ‘Best Year’ for Its IPOs as Earnings Beat
BBG 4h ago
Blackstone's strong IPO performance, beating earnings expectations, suggests a positive sentiment towards its IPOs, potentially indicating a strong performance for the year. This could boost investor confidence in IPOs and the financial sector. However, market volatility could negate this positive sentiment, leading to a decline in Blackstone's stock. Keep an eye on Blackstone's future earnings reports and overall market trends.
| BBG |
US Stocks Decline as US-Iran Impasse Continues, Oil Price Jumps
The ongoing US-Iran impasse is likely to keep risk-off sentiment elevated, leading to a decline in equities. Rising oil prices will also be a concern, potentially leading to increased safe-haven asset demand. A resolution to the impasse could bring relief to markets, but until then, expect continued volatility. Monitor developments in US-Iran negotiations and crude oil price movements.
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2h ago |
| BBG |
Gold Falls as US-Iran Hormuz Standoff Heightens Inflation Risk
The market's reaction to inflation risk appears nuanced, with gold prices falling despite heightened tensions. This could indicate that investors are pricing in specific risks rather than general geopolitical tensions. If inflation fears subside, gold prices may decline further. Keep an eye on inflation indicators and US-Iran diplomatic developments.
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16h ago |
| BBG |
Avis Shares Plunge 62% in Two Days in Crashing Halt to Rally
Avis's 62% plunge in two days suggests the market has overreacted to its prospects, and a re-evaluation of the stock is necessary. A short squeeze is possible if there's a positive surprise, but further declines are also likely due to loss of confidence. Monitor Avis's next earnings report and sector-wide trends for a clearer picture.
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1h ago |
| BBG |
American Airlines Lowers Guidance Due to Rising Fuel Prices
American Airlines' lowered guidance due to rising fuel prices is a concern for the airline industry, potentially leading to declines in airline stocks. If fuel prices continue to rise, expect further guidance adjustments from other airlines. Keep an eye on fuel price movements and other airlines' guidance for a clearer picture.
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1h ago |
| FJ |
MOO Imbalance
|
1h ago |
| CNBC |
Kevin Warsh gave his preferred way for measuring inflation. It could come back to bite him
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19h ago |
| FT |
How worried should Wall St be about the stablecoin threat to deposits?
|
3h ago |
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 11:20 ET |
| FJ |
Iranian Oil Tankers Break US Blockade
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global crude supplies
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7m ago |
| FJ |
Fed Funds Rate Holds Steady
Stable interest rates could maintain current market conditions
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2h ago |
| FJ |
US Manufacturing PMI Beats Forecast
Stronger manufacturing data could boost economic growth and risk appetite
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1h ago |
| FJ |
Strait of Hormuz Tensions Rise
Increased geopolitical risk could impact crude prices and global trade
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2h ago |
| FJ |
US Jobless Claims Rise Slightly
Labor market remains strong despite slight increase in jobless claims
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2h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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LRCX
$264.03
-0.6%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 70 |
1M +11.2% |
3M +20.3% |
1Y +318.3% |
FLAT |
Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 CY2026 revenue rose 23.8% year on year to $5.84 billion, beating expectations, driven by AI chip demand and record support sales. Q4 guidance of $6.6 billion at the midpoint was 9.4% above expectations. The market may be underestimating LRCX's growth sustainability, but a potential slowdown in AI demand could lead to a sharp correction.
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INTC
$67.57
+3.5%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 58 |
1M +48.1% |
3M +20.2% |
1Y +234.5% |
UP |
INTC's Philadelphia semiconductor index, SOX, is on a historic run, fueled by chip stocks hitting new highs, with a 1Y return of +234.5%. The composite score for INTC is 58/100 with a trend UP, and analyst target is $57. Risk: Overvaluation, as the market may be overreacting to the AI megatrend.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| WAB |
Buy |
13 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 23 |
ELMT
Elmet Group Co.
|
— |
$124M |
| Apr 24 |
XE
X-Energy, Inc.
|
— |
$936M |
| Apr 28 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| Apr 29 |
PS
PERSHING SQUARE HOLDCO, L.P.
|
— |
— |
| May 05 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
|
Congressional Trades |
2 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| James E Hon Banks |
SBUX |
Sale |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
| Cleo Fields |
TSM |
Purchase |
$1,001 - $15,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
CHARR
+157.1%
$0.09
EUDA
+122.4%
$13.43
TRT
+70.7%
$14.10
TZOO
+56.7%
$11.74
AUUD
+48.3%
$5.74
Top Losers
ZSPC
-51.9%
$0.57
CAR
-46.3%
$238.31
NPT
-45.8%
$2.00
ASGN
-41.4%
$23.71
NOWL
-32.1%
$3.80
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 11:23 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
2,011,061 |
948,805 |
1,062,256 |
1.12
|
$711C 227,614 vol |
| SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C ratio of 1.12 suggests cautious stance, but no clear directional signal. |
| QQQ |
1,398,070 |
666,371 |
731,699 |
1.10
|
$655C 167,024 vol |
| QQQ: Mixed flow, P/C ratio of 1.10 and hot $655C buying don't indicate clear direction. |
| TSLA |
1,105,112 |
627,428 |
477,684 |
0.76
|
$400C 57,571 vol |
| TSLA: Call buying, low P/C ratio of 0.76 implies bullish positioning, targeting $400 strike. |
| NVDA |
468,482 |
338,854 |
129,628 |
0.38
|
$205C 141,003 vol |
| NVDA: Aggressive call buying, low P/C ratio of 0.38 indicates strong bullish bet, eyeing $205 strike. |
| AMD |
170,696 |
110,393 |
60,303 |
0.55
|
$305C 33,934 vol |
| AMD: Call-heavy flow, P/C ratio of 0.55 suggests bullish bias, focus on $305 strike. |
|
|
LITE
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$62B
· Earnings Feb 03
|
| $700P |
22 DTE |
+65.2% ann. |
+17.8% OTM |
Δ 0.18 |
POP 82% |
|
| Lumentum (LITE) is experiencing stock price pressure due to a recent note-for-stock exchange dilution and pre-earnings positioning. |
|
AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$4B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $70P |
15 DTE |
+239.9% ann. |
+15.1% OTM |
Δ 0.24 |
POP 76% |
|
| AXTI stock is up 12% today according to data from Quiver Quantitative. |
|
TSEM
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
|
$22B
· Earnings Feb 11
|
| $165P |
22 DTE |
+30.2% ann. |
+19.9% OTM |
Δ 0.15 |
POP 84% |
|
| Tower Semiconductor Ltd. ($TSEM) sees increased investor interest, with Rockingstone Advisors LLC taking a position in the company, according to MarketBeat. |
|
MU
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$547B
· Earnings Mar 18
· Div 0.1%
|
| $510C |
22 DTE |
+81.6% ann. |
+6.6% OTM |
Δ 0.11 |
POP 89% |
|
| A Seeking Alpha analyst upgraded/downgraded MU, and the stock is surging with high-return options trades being reported, including 59.0% ann. return on 430.0P 22DTE. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$4B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $85C |
22 DTE |
+306.4% ann. |
+5.4% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
|
| AXTI stock is up 12% today according to data from Quiver Quantitative. |
|
CLS
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$47B
· Earnings Jan 28
|
| $455C |
43 DTE |
+53.1% ann. |
+13.4% OTM |
Δ 0.06 |
POP 94% |
|
| Asset Management One Co. Ltd. has sold shares of Celestica, Inc. $CLS, according to a report by MarketBeat. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $712 · QQQ $656 · VIX 18.9 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.9 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$705P |
55d |
1 |
$13.89 |
$1,389 |
9.2% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$725P |
55d |
1 |
$21.91 |
$2,191 |
14.5% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$695P |
55d |
2 |
$11.19 |
$2,238 |
14.9% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $725P 55d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$676 |
114% |
$98,420 |
| Correction -10% |
$641 |
99% |
$97,730 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$605 |
94% |
$97,040 |
| Crash -20% |
$570 |
91% |
$96,350 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$655P |
55d |
1 |
$18.90 |
$1,890 |
12.5% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$670P |
55d |
1 |
$25.57 |
$2,557 |
17.0% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$645P |
55d |
2 |
$15.43 |
$3,086 |
20.5% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $670P 55d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$624 |
109% |
$97,832 |
| Correction -10% |
$591 |
93% |
$96,864 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$558 |
88% |
$95,896 |
| Crash -20% |
$525 |
85% |
$94,928 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 11:23 ET
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 23 (MTD) · Hit rate: 30/42 · Avg return: +9.4% · YTD: +7.8%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+65.0% |
Ann. |
94.9% |
Sharpe |
2.93 |
Max DD |
-7.6% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+87.0% |
SPY |
+5.9% |
$100K → |
$164,970 |
| Full backtest · 2007-06–2026-03 · 223 months |
| Total |
2,477% |
Ann. |
19.1% |
Sharpe |
0.90 |
Max DD |
-33.3% |
| Win% |
62% |
Alpha |
+9.3% |
SPY |
473% |
$100K → |
$2,576,690 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| XOM |
24.7% |
-7.5% |
| JNJ |
14.8% |
-6.1% |
| CNL |
7.6% |
+12.3% |
| AUGO |
5.8% |
+4.5% |
| WAB |
5.1% |
+4.0% |
| WMT |
4.3% |
+4.8% |
| NUE |
3.6% |
+23.1% |
| AAUC |
2.8% |
+2.3% |
| BWET |
2.6% |
+20.7% |
| EOG |
2.5% |
-5.2% |
| ORR |
1.8% |
-3.4% |
| CFG |
1.8% |
+8.1% |
| LQDA |
1.7% |
-1.3% |
| TBN |
1.7% |
-21.4% |
| BK |
1.2% |
+12.5% |
| GEV |
1.2% |
+29.4% |
| TERN |
1.2% |
+0.1% |
| XIDV |
1.0% |
+2.4% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
-0.6% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+6.2% |
| COST |
0.9% |
+1.2% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-3.7% |
| ASMH |
0.9% |
+5.0% |
| AAOI |
0.8% |
+67.3% |
| AGX |
0.8% |
+17.9% |
| SFD |
0.6% |
+1.9% |
| ANAB |
0.6% |
+39.2% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+6.3% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+22.7% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-1.1% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+36.7% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+14.8% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-2.0% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+15.5% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+14.3% |
| META |
0.5% |
+15.6% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+7.0% |
| AIS |
0.4% |
+31.5% |
| GRDN |
0.4% |
-2.3% |
| PRMY |
0.4% |
+0.0% |
| EMEQ |
0.4% |
+17.4% |
| BRAZ |
0.4% |
+5.7% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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