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Markets · Options · Signal
April 22, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 09:52 ET
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S&P 500
708.58
+0.64%
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Nasdaq
649.14
+0.75%
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Dow
494.92
+0.72%
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Russell 2k
277.12
+0.95%
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VIX
19.04
-2.36%
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20Y Bond
87.05
+0.55%
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Gold
436.54
+1.62%
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Silver
70.71
+3.23%
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Oil
128.02
-0.18%
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USD
27.41
-0.22%
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CNN Fear & Greed
69
Greed
wk +11 · mo +53
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AAII Survey 2026-04-15
▲ 31.7%
/
▼ 42.8%
/
25.5%
spread -11.1 · avg bull 31.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 675.19 |
Res: 712.39 |
RSI: 70.0 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 607.34 |
Res: 650.46 |
RSI: 72.7 |
|
Econ Calendar |
5 high-impact · Wed Apr 22 – Thu Apr 23 · as of 09:52 ET |
| Wed Apr 22 |
| 02:00 |
GB |
CPI (YoY) (Mar) — est. 3.3%, prev. 3.0% |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — est. -1.900M, prev. -0.913M |
| Thu Apr 23 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 212K, prev. 207K |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) — est. 52.5, prev. 52.3 |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) — est. 50.1, prev. 49.8 |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.28% |
-1bps |
| Spread |
+47bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
98.36 |
-0.05% |
| VIX/3M |
0.90 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.71% |
+0.04% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2906
$126.86 · $436.60
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z +0.43 · Neutral · ρ 84%
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| BTC |
$78,782 |
+3.2% |
| ETH |
$2,414 |
+3.7% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0306 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
09:54 ET |
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Energy
+1.21%
XLE
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Utilities
+0.93%
XLU
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Health Care
+0.86%
XLV
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Materials
+0.81%
XLB
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Technology
+0.76%
XLK
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Industrials
+0.60%
XLI
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Cons. Discr.
+0.56%
XLY
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Communication
+0.49%
XLC
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Cons. Staples
+0.49%
XLP
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Financials
+0.40%
XLF
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Real Estate
+0.30%
XLRE
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In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a defensive tilt with Utilities and Health Care outperforming, while Energy surprisingly leads, as Financials lag.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 8 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 8 days, with the S&P 500 up 0.64% and Nasdaq up 0.75% from the previous close, as the Fed is expected to hold the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% through September. Worth watching is the divergence between the expected steady interest rates and the US PCE inflation projected to decline from 3.7% in Q2 to 3.2% in Q4, suggesting potential easing in inflation pressures.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“How can the Democrats not like how the U.S. Supreme Court votes. The Democrat Justices stick together like glue, NEVER failing to wander from the warped and perverse policies, ideas, and cases put before them. They ALWAYS vote as a group, or BLOCK, even that new, Low IQ person, that somehow found her way to the bench (Sleepy Joe!). The Republican Justices don’t stick together, they give the Democrats win after win, like a 159 Billion Dollar pile of cash on a completely ridiculous Tariff decision, and nasty, one sided questions on the country destroying subject of Birthright Citizenship, something which virtually NO OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD IS STUPID ENOUGH TO ALLOW. It was meant for the babies of slaves, not for the babies of Chinese Billionaires. No, certain “Republican” Justices have just gone weak, stupid, and bad, completely violating what they “supposedly” stood for. Handing over 159 Billion Dollars in Tariff refunds to people who have been Ripping Off our Country for years, is unexplainable. One little sentence would have stoped this record setting payment from having to be made. It is a travesty! Their Tariff decision was an unnecessary and expensive slap in the face to the U.S.A., and a giant victory for its opponents. If they rule against our Country on Birthright Citizenship, which they probably will, it will be even worse, if that’s possible. It will cost America massive amounts of money but, more importantly, it will cost America its DIGNITY! No, the Radical Left Democrats don’t need to “Pack the Court,” it’s already Packed! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
10m ago
$DXY$FXI$SPY$UUP
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“RT @realDonaldTrumpIran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately- Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!”
9h ago
$DXY$USO$UUP$XLE
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“Iran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately- Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!”
10h ago
$DXY$USO$UUP$XLE
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“Terrible!https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/ided-witness-2-helped-ukraine-whistleblower-worked-strzok-wrote-2016”
10h ago
$WEATDefenseEnergy
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“Salena Zito: Trump has a way with Pennsylvania. This interview shows why.https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/11/19/trump-interview-pennsylvania-steel-tariffs/”
11h ago
$CLF$FXI$NUE$SPY
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:54 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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ANY
mixed
30
“White girls gave up lattes and leggings but will NEVER give up their Birkenstock…”
WSB 48 pts · 5/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
18
“Bers when SPY loses 13-day win streak”
WSB 1376 pts · 5/5 subs
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NVDA
mixed
13
“2M Gain, $27 NVDA, Not even sure what to do with this.”
WSB 1421 pts · 5/5 subs
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NICE
mixed
11
“I started investing 5 years ago, and I’m still in the red.”
STK 461 pts · 5/5 subs
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CAT
bullish
11
“Bers when SPY loses 13-day win streak”
WSB 1376 pts · 2/5 subs
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AREN
mixed
11
“CRWV short calls aren’t doing well”
WSB 22 pts · 5/5 subs
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WISH
mixed
10
“Good bye Wallstreet ❤️ Thank you guys for everything…”
WSB 29864 pts · 5/5 subs
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AMZN
bearish
10
“The Circle Jerk Will Continue Until Morale Improves”
WSB 1207 pts · 5/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1450 Form 4s filed · 09:52 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-22
Tech executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with notable sales in Dell and Roku, while Magnetar exits CrowdStrike, signaling potential sector profit-taking in RECOVERY regime.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$166.2M |
| SELL |
DELL |
SLTA IV (GP), L.L.C. Insider |
$81.3M |
| SELL |
DELL |
SLTA V (GP), L.L.C. Insider |
$81.3M |
| SELL |
DELL |
SLTA V (GP), L.L.C. Insider |
$67.5M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Mohan Jitendra Chief Executive Officer |
$57.9M |
| SELL |
ROKU |
Collier Charles President, Roku Media |
$23.7M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 09:55 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| SPHR |
34.9% |
7.1d |
+3.7% |
HIGH
|
| UPST |
33.3% |
5.4d |
+11.0% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
31.0% |
5.2d |
-1.3% |
HIGH
|
| SMCI |
18.5% |
1.9d |
-2.2% |
ELEVATED
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| GME |
15.3% |
11.1d |
-4.3% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.3% |
3.4d |
-28.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| CVNA |
14.6% |
5.3d |
+16.9% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
13.3% |
4.9d |
+0.6% |
MODERATE
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Setup Monitor |
30 scanned · 1 red · 2 yellow |
Structural: 13D/G concentration + put-ladder + SI over real-float (pre-wired setup). Ignition: intraday grind fingerprint + FINRA short-volume flow (live squeeze). Archegos / VW / CAR pattern.
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Hldrs |
SI/real |
Flags |
Bucket |
| CAR |
0.72 |
0.45 |
78% |
146% |
COVERELEVLADDER |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.62 |
0.10 |
76% |
100% |
ELEV |
YELLOW
|
| CVNA |
0.60 |
0.10 |
106% |
100% |
ELEV |
YELLOW
|
Ignition Watch · pre-squeeze fuel building
No structural lock-up yet, but tape + FINRA short-flow show shorts aggressively adding into a rally. Pre-wired squeeze fuel.
| BYND |
ign 0.45 |
COVERELEV |
20d +44%
· SSVR -4.7pt
|
| BIRD |
ign 0.25 |
ADDELEV |
20d +144%
· SSVR +9.0pt
|
| APLD |
ign 0.15 |
ADD |
20d +13%
· SSVR +2.7pt
|
| UPST |
ign 0.15 |
ADD |
20d +25%
· SSVR +5.3pt
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| QBTS |
ign 0.15 |
ADD |
20d +13%
· SSVR +14.7pt
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 09:52 ET |
MOO Imbalance
FJ 21m ago
A MOO imbalance suggests a potential short-term price movement due to an order flow imbalance. Monitor order flow data and market depth for confirmation of the imbalance and its impact. If the imbalance is quickly absorbed, it may not have a significant market impact.
| FJ |
Fed to hold Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% range through September, said 56 of 103 economists vs 56 of 82 predicted at least one cut by then in late March - Poll.
The Fed's decision to hold the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% through September may lead to USD strength and yield curve adjustments. Keep an eye on economic data releases to see if they align with or contradict this expectation, which could shift market expectations for future rate decisions.
|
1h ago |
| FT |
Middle East crisis as it happened: Trump extends ceasefire, Iran accuses US of violating international law over vessel seizure
The extension of the ceasefire in the Middle East crisis, coupled with Iran's accusations against the US, may lead to risk-off sentiment and safe-haven asset buying. Monitor developments in the conflict, as escalation could result in a significant impact on global economic growth and asset prices.
|
15h ago |
| FJ |
US PCE inflation to average 3.7% in Q2, 3.4% in Q3 and 3.2% in Q4 (3.3%, 3.1% and 2.9% in the late March poll) - Poll.
The expected increase in US PCE inflation could lead to adjustments in yield curves and inflation expectations. As inflation data releases provide more information, market expectations for economic growth and monetary policy may shift, affecting asset prices.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Canada's Trade Minister LeBlanc: 232 tariffs likely to remain but adjustments possible.
Canada's Trade Minister LeBlanc's statement that 232 tariffs are likely to remain, but with possible adjustments, may lead to a reaction in CAD and trade-sensitive assets. Keep an eye on trade negotiation updates and policy statements for further guidance on trade policy.
|
41m ago |
| BBG |
What's Happening In Iran War? Trump Extends Truce with Talks In Limbo | The Pulse 4/22
The ongoing Iran-US conflict, with the truce still in place but talks in limbo, maintains the risk of escalation and its associated market impact. Monitor significant developments in the conflict, as de-escalation or escalation could have a substantial effect on safe-haven assets, oil prices, and global economic growth.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Canada's Trade Minister LeBlanc: American preference was to begin talks bilaterally.
|
47m ago |
| FJ |
UK's Chancellor Reeves: Underlining banks economic stability is government priority.
|
3h ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 09:52 ET |
| FJ |
Iran Talks Possible Friday
Iran-US talks may impact crude prices and risk sentiment.
|
6m ago |
| FJ |
Fed Rate Hold Expected
Fed to hold rates steady through September, affecting market risk.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Crude Supply in Focus
Iran's naval blockade and oil transit impact crude prices.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
ECB on Economic Growth
ECB's Lane comments on euro economy and AI adoption.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Global Economic Risks
Geopolitical tensions and economic data impact market sentiment.
|
2h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
|
|
LRCX
$259.70
-0.4%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 69 |
1M +10.7% |
3M +13.1% |
1Y +314.1% |
UP |
| Technology |
$326B |
P/E 36.3 |
β 1.79 |
SI 2.5% |
Target $281 |
Rev 22% |
Lam Research (LRCX) reports earnings soon, with analysts expecting $1.36 EPS and $5.75 billion in sales. The stock has a composite score of 69/100 and a trend UP, with 1M and 3M returns of +10.7% and +13.1%, respectively. Risks include potential disruption to chip demand and competition from Chinese rivals.
|
|
NVDA
$200.07
-0.3%
|
Bearish
|
| Technology |
$4.9T |
P/E 17.8 |
β 2.33 |
SI 1.2% |
Target $269 |
Rev 73% |
Nvidia faces increased competition from Google's new AI chips, which could erode its market share. Google's move comes as Nvidia's rally has stalled, with the stock selling off from $202 to around $165. The market may be mispricing the sustainability of Nvidia's high revenue growth, currently at 73%, given rising competition.
|
|
SATS
$122.68
-2.6%
|
Bullish
|
| Communication Services |
$35B |
P/E -1076.1 |
β 1.00 |
SI 28.9% |
Target $130 |
Rev -4% |
EchoStar (SATS) surged 23.0% over the past 30 days and 20.4% year-to-date, with a recent $30 million stake taken by an investor. The stock trades at a forward P/E of -1076.1, with 28.9% short interest and a $130 analyst target. Ergen's SpaceX windfall could net billions, but unprofitable stocks like SATS, with a -4% revenue growth, pose risks.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
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Earnings This Week |
Apr 22 – May 06 · 09:55 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| LLY |
Apr 30 |
N/A |
| Investors will watch Eli Lilly's (LLY) upcoming earnings on Apr 30 to gauge the impact of recent deals, such as the one with Kelonia Therapeutics, on its growth prospects. |
| AXTI |
Apr 30 |
N/A |
| Investors should watch AXT's upcoming earnings on Apr 30 for updates on the company's AI-focused Indium Phosphide expansion and its impact on the stock's volatile performance. |
| AAPL |
Apr 30 ☽ |
N/A |
| Apple's stock may react to its upcoming earnings report on April 30, as investors await updates on the company's performance amid a potentially shifting tech sector landscape. |
| BTSG |
May 01 ☀ |
N/A |
| Investors should watch BTSG's upcoming earnings on May 01 to see if the company's growth trajectory remains intact after its 185% one-year rally. |
| XOM |
May 01 ☀ |
N/A |
| ExxonMobil's stock may react to its upcoming earnings report on May 01, as investors assess the company's performance amid a changing energy market landscape. |
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 22 |
NHP
National Healthcare Properties, Inc.
|
— |
$708M |
| Apr 22 |
YSWY
Yesway, Inc.
|
— |
$369M |
| Apr 22 |
EMI
Encore Medical, Inc.
|
— |
$17M |
| Apr 23 |
ELMT
Elmet Group Co.
|
— |
$124M |
| Apr 24 |
XE
X-Energy, Inc.
|
— |
$936M |
| Apr 28 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| Apr 29 |
PS
PERSHING SQUARE HOLDCO, L.P.
|
— |
— |
| May 05 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 09:55 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
1,687,865 |
768,681 |
919,184 |
1.20
|
$710C 104,962 vol |
| SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C ratio of 1.20 suggests bearish hedging ahead of potential market volatility. |
| QQQ |
1,099,534 |
467,460 |
632,074 |
1.35
|
$647C 87,465 vol |
| QQQ: Aggressive call buying at $647C, but high P/C ratio of 1.35 indicates mixed flow with hedging. |
| TSLA |
735,101 |
368,432 |
366,669 |
1.00
|
$390C 65,579 vol |
| TSLA: Neutral P/C ratio of 1.00 and hot $390C suggests bullish bets, but no clear directional signal. |
| NVDA |
688,291 |
365,207 |
323,084 |
0.88
|
$202C 133,988 vol |
| NVDA: Call buying leads, low P/C ratio of 0.88 implies bullish positioning, driven by $202C activity. |
| AMD |
333,846 |
210,339 |
123,507 |
0.59
|
$285C 31,888 vol |
| AMD: Call-heavy flow with low P/C ratio of 0.59 indicates bullish bets, particularly at $285C strike. |
|
|
VRT
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$117B
· Earnings Apr 22
· Div 8.0%
|
| $260P |
25 DTE |
+28.9% ann. |
+16.1% OTM |
Δ 0.17 |
POP 83% |
|
| Vertiv Holdings is set to report Q1 earnings, with options traders expecting a 9.16% move in VRT stock, according to TipRanks. |
|
AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$4B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $70P |
25 DTE |
+241.9% ann. |
+10.5% OTM |
Δ 0.28 |
POP 72% |
|
| AXTI is down 12.8% after boosting share capacity to fund AI-focused indium phosphide expansion, according to Yahoo Finance. |
|
CLS
CSP
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$47B
· Earnings Apr 27
|
| $320P |
25 DTE |
+27.4% ann. |
+20.0% OTM |
Δ 0.15 |
POP 85% |
|
| Bank of America forecasts strong price appreciation for Celestica (NYSE:CLS) stock, potentially driving the stock's momentum, according to a MarketBeat report. |
|
MRVL
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$133B
· Earnings May 28
· Div 16.0%
|
| $160C |
25 DTE |
+52.6% ann. |
+8.8% OTM |
Δ 0.07 |
POP 93% |
|
| Marvell Technology's stock is soaring due to a potential partnership that has added $5B to its market cap, according to thestreet.com. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$4B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $79C |
25 DTE |
+298.0% ann. |
+5.0% OTM |
Δ 0.20 |
POP 80% |
|
| AXTI is down 12.8% after boosting share capacity to fund AI-focused indium phosphide expansion, according to Yahoo Finance. |
|
CLS
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$47B
· Earnings Apr 27
|
| $450C |
39 DTE |
+54.0% ann. |
+12.4% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Bank of America forecasts strong price appreciation for Celestica (NYSE:CLS) stock, potentially driving the stock's momentum, according to a MarketBeat report. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $709 · QQQ $650 · VIX 19.1 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 19.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$705P |
60d |
1 |
$18.71 |
$1,871 |
11.4% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$725P |
60d |
1 |
$35.94 |
$3,594 |
21.9% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$690P |
60d |
2 |
$14.51 |
$2,902 |
17.7% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $725P 60d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$674 |
121% |
$97,290 |
| Correction -10% |
$638 |
102% |
$96,585 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$603 |
96% |
$95,881 |
| Crash -20% |
$567 |
93% |
$95,176 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$555P |
56d |
1 |
$163.03 |
$16,303 |
106.3% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$555P |
56d |
1 |
$163.03 |
$16,303 |
106.3% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$555P |
56d |
2 |
$163.03 |
$32,606 |
212.5% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $555P 56d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$617 |
0% |
$79,447 |
| Correction -10% |
$585 |
0% |
$75,197 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$552 |
2% |
$71,227 |
| Crash -20% |
$520 |
21% |
$70,226 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 09:54 ET
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 22 (MTD) · Hit rate: 33/41 · Avg return: +10.5% · YTD: +13.3%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+59.2% |
Ann. |
85.9% |
Sharpe |
2.96 |
Max DD |
-8.0% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+78.0% |
SPY |
+5.9% |
$100K → |
$159,231 |
| Full backtest · 2017-01–2026-03 · 111 months |
| Total |
2,486% |
Ann. |
42.1% |
Sharpe |
1.69 |
Max DD |
-16.7% |
| Win% |
71% |
Alpha |
+30.5% |
SPY |
178% |
$100K → |
$2,585,521 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| XOM |
14.2% |
-6.8% |
| WMT |
13.8% |
+3.8% |
| JNJ |
13.8% |
-7.1% |
| CNL |
7.5% |
+11.5% |
| AUGO |
6.5% |
+15.4% |
| FDX |
5.1% |
+8.8% |
| EOG |
3.6% |
-4.2% |
| EMEQ |
3.1% |
+16.1% |
| NDSN |
2.5% |
+5.4% |
| GEV |
2.4% |
+25.5% |
| BTSG |
2.2% |
+10.3% |
| MU |
1.9% |
+25.7% |
| PCAR |
1.8% |
+7.9% |
| SPHR |
1.7% |
+6.9% |
| AAOI |
1.7% |
+70.7% |
| TPR |
1.2% |
+4.2% |
| DNTH |
1.2% |
+8.6% |
| LQDA |
1.2% |
-2.0% |
| LGCY |
1.0% |
+4.3% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
-0.3% |
| COST |
0.9% |
+0.7% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-3.7% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+7.4% |
| TERN |
0.8% |
+0.1% |
| TBN |
0.8% |
-21.1% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+26.0% |
| MUX |
0.6% |
+14.8% |
| DTCR |
0.6% |
+15.1% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-1.8% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+29.4% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+13.7% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+16.0% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+19.7% |
| META |
0.5% |
+16.1% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+5.2% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+13.4% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
+2.3% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+7.0% |
| MKOR |
0.4% |
+20.6% |
| ANAB |
0.4% |
+36.3% |
| AGX |
0.4% |
+7.7% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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