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Markets · Options · Signal
April 20, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 09:38 ET
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S&P 500
708.96
-0.17%
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Nasdaq
647.63
-0.19%
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Dow
494.36
+0.03%
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Russell 2k
274.95
-0.30%
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VIX
18.85
+7.84%
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20Y Bond
87.03
-0.05%
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Gold
442.60
-0.75%
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Silver
72.64
-1.34%
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Oil
120.24
+3.62%
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USD
27.33
-0.09%
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CNN Fear & Greed
68
Greed
wk +25 · mo +52
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AAII Survey 2026-04-15
▲ 31.7%
/
▼ 42.8%
/
25.5%
spread -11.1 · avg bull 31.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 674.54 |
Res: 712.39 |
RSI: 72.4 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 602.64 |
Res: 650.00 |
RSI: 73.1 |
|
Econ Calendar |
4 high-impact · Tue Apr 21 – Wed Apr 22 · as of 09:38 ET |
| Tue Apr 21 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) — est. 1.3%, prev. 0.5% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) — est. 1.4%, prev. 0.6% |
| Wed Apr 22 |
| 02:00 |
GB |
CPI (YoY) (Mar) — est. 3.3%, prev. 3.0% |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — est. -1.000M, prev. -0.913M |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.25% |
+0bps |
| Spread |
+44bps |
Normal |
| DXY |
98.17 |
+0.07% |
| VIX/3M |
0.92 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.77% |
+0.03% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2963
$131.15 · $442.56
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z +0.74 · Neutral · ρ 84%
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| BTC |
$75,224 |
+1.9% |
| ETH |
$2,312 |
+2.1% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0307 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
09:42 ET |
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Energy
+0.78%
XLE
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Cons. Staples
+0.53%
XLP
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Materials
+0.31%
XLB
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Financials
+0.25%
XLF
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Utilities
+0.22%
XLU
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Real Estate
+0.03%
XLRE
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Industrials
-0.10%
XLI
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Technology
-0.14%
XLK
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Health Care
-0.37%
XLV
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Communication
-0.39%
XLC
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Cons. Discr.
-0.79%
XLY
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In the RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a defensive tilt with Energy and Cons. Staples leading, while cyclicals like Cons. Discr. and Health Care lag.
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Regime Timeline
HMM V6 · 4-state model · 42 features
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 6 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 6 days, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 0.17% and 0.19% respectively, while the Dow eked out a 0.03% gain. Worth watching is the divergence between the bullish US earnings outlook from Wall Street strategists and the narrow leadership of the current rally, with one company reportedly responsible for half of the S&P 500's gains.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“Trump Economy: Retail sales and housing suggest a resilient consumer: https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/everyday-economics-retail-sales-and-housing-suggest-resilient-consumer”
1h ago
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“Tariffs Are a Discipline, Not a Press Release: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/tariffs-are-a-discipline-not-a-press-release-4022e09e”
18h ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
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“Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as an aircraft carrier, tried to get past our Naval Blockade, and it did not go well for them. The U.S. Navy Guided Missile Destroyer USS SPRUANCE intercepted the TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman, and gave them fair warning to stop. The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom. Right now, U.S. Marines have custody of the vessel. The TOUSKA is under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity. We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what’s on board! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
18h ago
$EEM$SHY$TLT$USO
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“Why The Supreme Court Must Strike Down Birthright Citizenship: https://paulingrassia.substack.com/p/why-the-supreme-court-must-strike”
18h ago
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“Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations. Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it. They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be “the tough guy!” We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
$DXY$USO$UUP$XLE
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:41 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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META
mixed
31
“Meta to cut 8000 jobs (10% workforce) in May. More layoffs ahead as AI shift acc…”
WSB 4199 pts · 5/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
23
“Upcoming Stock Market Drop Will Be Epic Fury”
WSB 3024 pts · 5/5 subs
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ANY
mixed
21
“Meta to cut 8000 jobs (10% workforce) in May. More layoffs ahead as AI shift acc…”
WSB 4199 pts · 5/5 subs
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AREN
bullish
16
“MVST $125k YOLO”
WSB 71 pts · 5/5 subs
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MOD
bullish
15
“Blue Orgin “accidentally” deploys their competitors satellites into the wrong or…”
WSB 5079 pts · 4/5 subs
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SNAP
bullish
15
“Meta to cut 8000 jobs (10% workforce) in May. More layoffs ahead as AI shift acc…”
WSB 4199 pts · 3/5 subs
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AMD
mixed
10
“Had a $19K home repair bill come up. Gambled my money back in three weeks”
WSB 1428 pts · 4/5 subs
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VTI
mixed
10
“I tried to time the market with 80k”
STK 1243 pts · 2/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1727 Form 4s filed · 09:38 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-15 to 2026-04-20
Insiders are dumping shares in the cybersecurity sector, led by CrowdStrike (CRWV) executives and Magnetar Financial, ahead of earnings, signaling potential near-term weakness.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Magnetar Financial LLC Insider |
$166.2M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$124.7M |
| SELL |
DELL |
SLTA IV (GP), L.L.C. Insider |
$81.3M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$11.1M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$5.9M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$4.8M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 09:42 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| SPHR |
34.9% |
7.1d |
+3.7% |
HIGH
|
| UPST |
33.3% |
5.4d |
+11.0% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
31.0% |
5.2d |
-1.3% |
HIGH
|
| SMCI |
18.5% |
1.9d |
-2.2% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.3% |
11.1d |
-4.3% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.3% |
3.4d |
-28.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| CVNA |
14.6% |
5.3d |
+16.9% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
13.3% |
4.9d |
+0.6% |
MODERATE
|
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 09:38 ET |
Wall Street Strategists Bullish on the US Earnings Outlook
BBG 4h ago
With Wall Street strategists turning bullish on the US earnings outlook, it's likely that stocks will rally, and bonds may sell off, potentially leading to slight USD strength. Keep an eye on upcoming earnings reports and Federal Reserve meetings for confirmation. If earnings outlook fails to materialize, stocks may decline, and bonds rally.
| FT |
Oil prices set for more turbulence in months ahead, warns Gunvor chief
Oil prices are expected to experience more turbulence, which could lead to increased volatility in the market. Stocks with high energy costs may decline, while oil prices spike, and the USD strengthens. Monitor OPEC meetings, global economic indicators, and supply reports for the next move.
|
9h ago |
| BBG |
Strategy Buys $2.54 Billion of Bitcoin, Most Since November 2024
A $2.54 billion purchase of Bitcoin suggests renewed institutional interest, which could drive up the price of Bitcoin and related cryptocurrencies. However, a regulatory crackdown could quickly change the narrative. Watch for regulatory announcements and market sentiment indicators to gauge the next move.
|
59m ago |
| BBG |
Blackstone-Backed Jersey Mike’s Submits Confidential IPO Filing
The confidential IPO filing by Blackstone-backed Jersey Mike's could signal potential growth in the IPO market, leading to increased activity and a positive reaction in stocks. However, a significant IPO withdrawal or market downturn could slow the IPO market. Keep an eye on IPO filings, market conditions, and economic indicators.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
MOO Imbalance
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8m ago |
| MW |
The narrow foundations of the current rally — one company is responsible for half of S&P 500 earnings revisions
The current market rally may be resting on narrow foundations, with one company responsible for half of S&P 500 earnings revisions. This could lead to weakness in stocks with poor fundamentals and potential adjustments in investor portfolios. Monitor market breadth indicators, economic indicators, and Federal Reserve meetings to assess the sustainability of the rally.
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2h ago |
| BBG |
Iran Wavers on Peace Talks & UAE Explores US Financial Lifeline: WSJ | The Pulse 04/20/2026
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53m ago |
| FT |
US stablecoins pose danger to emerging markets, say central bankers
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8h ago |
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 09:38 ET |
| FJ |
Iran, US in Talks
Iran-US diplomacy eases tensions, impacts crude and risk assets
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Strait of Hormuz Update
Shipping disruptions could impact crude supply and prices
|
3h ago |
| FJ |
Fed Funds Rate Steady
Stable US interest rates influence FX and risk assets
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38m ago |
| FJ |
China-US Cooperation
US-China relations impact global markets and risk sentiment
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
ECB Rate Comments
ECB's balanced approach influences European rates and FX
|
2h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 39 flashes scanned
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|
LRCX
$265.51
-0.7%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 72 |
1M +14.4% |
3M +20.0% |
1Y +310.8% |
FLAT |
| Technology |
$333B |
P/E 37.0 |
β 1.79 |
SI 2.5% |
Target $281 |
Rev 22% |
Lam Research (LRCX) is on Jim Cramer's radar with potential for a "strongest quarter" amid optimistic analyst estimates and discussions with Elon Musk's Terafab chip initiative. The stock has a 1-year return of 310.8% and a forward P/E of 37.0. However, geopolitical risks and a high valuation could lead to a market correction.
|
|
NVDA
$199.51
-0.7%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 66 |
1M +12.9% |
3M +8.3% |
1Y +93.0% |
UP |
| Technology |
$4.8T |
P/E 17.8 |
β 2.33 |
SI 1.2% |
Target $269 |
Rev 73% |
NVDA's composite score is 66/100 with a trend UP, driven by 1Y returns of +93.0% and 1M returns of +12.9%. Fundamentals show a Fwd P/E of 17.8, MCap of $4.8T, and Rev growth of 73%. Risk lies in high valuation and market concentration, with 35% of S&P 500 tied to 7 AI-driven mega-caps.
|
|
SATS
$134.62
+0.9%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 64 |
1M +22.1% |
3M +8.1% |
1Y +5.0% |
UP |
| Communication Services |
$39B |
P/E -91.6 |
β 1.00 |
SI 28.9% |
Target $130 |
Rev -4% |
EchoStar's stock surged after Charlie Ergen's SpaceX windfall, with a $30 million stake taken by an investor, and Roth Capital raising targets for related stocks. AT&T's upcoming Q1 2026 earnings will reflect its new segment structure post-Lumen and EchoStar acquisitions. Market tension lies in whether AT&T's acquisitions will support its dividend story.
|
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|
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
Earnings This Week |
Apr 20 – May 04 · 09:42 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| PCAR |
Apr 28 ☀ |
N/A |
| Investors should watch PCAR's upcoming earnings on Apr 28 for updates on the company's cash position, as it has been highlighted as a key strength by investors and analysts. |
| GOOGL |
Apr 29 ☽ |
N/A |
| Investors will closely watch GOOGL's upcoming earnings on Apr 29 to see if the company's growth momentum continues amid increasing competition and scrutiny in the tech sector. |
| META |
Apr 29 ☽ |
N/A |
| Investors will closely watch Meta's upcoming earnings on April 29 to assess the company's progress amid its restructuring efforts, including the planned layoffs announced earlier this year. |
| AMZN |
Apr 29 ☽ |
N/A |
| Amazon's upcoming earnings on Apr 29 may face scrutiny over capital expenditures, as analysts expect CapEx to peak, potentially impacting the stock's performance. |
| MSFT |
Apr 29 ☽ |
N/A |
| Microsoft's upcoming earnings on April 29 will be closely watched for updates on the company's AI overhaul, particularly the revamp of Copilot, under CEO Satya Nadella. |
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 22 |
NHP
National Healthcare Properties, Inc.
|
— |
$708M |
| Apr 22 |
YSWY
Yesway, Inc.
|
— |
$369M |
| Apr 22 |
EMI
Encore Medical, Inc.
|
— |
$17M |
| Apr 23 |
ELMT
Elmet Group Co.
|
— |
$124M |
| Apr 24 |
XE
X-Energy, Inc.
|
— |
$936M |
| Apr 28 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| Apr 29 |
PS
PERSHING SQUARE HOLDCO, L.P.
|
— |
— |
| May 05 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 09:42 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
1,637,040 |
808,844 |
828,196 |
1.02
|
$710C 117,849 vol |
| SPY: Neutral flow, slight put bias with P/C=1.02, no clear directional signal. |
| QQQ |
1,065,960 |
433,605 |
632,355 |
1.46
|
$650C 93,691 vol |
| QQQ: Bearish flow with P/C=1.46, put buying possibly hedging long tech positions. |
| TSLA |
857,523 |
582,439 |
275,084 |
0.47
|
$400C 78,612 vol |
| TSLA: Bullish call buying with low P/C=0.47, $400C driving interest. |
| NVDA |
382,900 |
279,853 |
103,047 |
0.37
|
$200C 84,694 vol |
| NVDA: Aggressive bullish call buying with low P/C=0.37, $200C hot. |
| AMD |
144,017 |
80,495 |
63,522 |
0.79
|
$280C 14,186 vol |
| AMD: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with neutral P/C=0.79. |
|
|
VRT
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$118B
· Earnings Apr 22
· Div 8.0%
|
| $260P |
25 DTE |
+28.9% ann. |
+16.1% OTM |
Δ 0.17 |
POP 83% |
|
| Vertiv Holdings Co. $VRT shares are experiencing a 4% decline today, and options traders expect a 10.3% move in VRT stock post-Q1 earnings. |
|
AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$4B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $70P |
25 DTE |
+241.9% ann. |
+10.5% OTM |
Δ 0.28 |
POP 72% |
|
| AXTI is down 12.8% after boosting share capacity to fund AI-focused indium phosphide expansion, according to Yahoo Finance. |
|
CLS
CSP
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$46B
· Earnings Apr 27
|
| $320P |
25 DTE |
+27.4% ann. |
+20.0% OTM |
Δ 0.15 |
POP 85% |
|
| TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. sold shares of Celestica, Inc. $CLS, according to a report by MarketBeat. |
|
MRVL
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$128B
· Earnings May 28
· Div 17.0%
|
| $160C |
25 DTE |
+52.6% ann. |
+8.8% OTM |
Δ 0.07 |
POP 93% |
|
| Marvell's stock surged 6% premarket on a report of a Google chip deal, bucking a market selloff linked to war concerns. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$4B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $79C |
25 DTE |
+298.0% ann. |
+5.0% OTM |
Δ 0.20 |
POP 80% |
|
| AXTI is down 12.8% after boosting share capacity to fund AI-focused indium phosphide expansion, according to Yahoo Finance. |
|
CLS
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$46B
· Earnings Apr 27
|
| $450C |
39 DTE |
+54.0% ann. |
+12.4% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. sold shares of Celestica, Inc. $CLS, according to a report by MarketBeat. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $709 · QQQ $647 · VIX 18.9 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.9 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$700P |
60d |
1 |
$17.35 |
$1,735 |
10.6% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$725P |
60d |
1 |
$36.52 |
$3,652 |
22.2% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$690P |
60d |
2 |
$14.64 |
$2,928 |
17.8% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $725P 60d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$673 |
122% |
$97,289 |
| Correction -10% |
$638 |
103% |
$96,581 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$602 |
96% |
$95,874 |
| Crash -20% |
$567 |
93% |
$95,166 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$555P |
58d |
1 |
$163.03 |
$16,303 |
102.6% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$555P |
58d |
1 |
$163.03 |
$16,303 |
102.6% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$635P |
58d |
2 |
$15.29 |
$3,058 |
19.2% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $555P 58d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$614 |
0% |
$79,447 |
| Correction -10% |
$582 |
0% |
$75,197 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$550 |
4% |
$71,470 |
| Crash -20% |
$517 |
22% |
$70,454 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 09:42 ET
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 20 (MTD) · Hit rate: 32/41 · Avg return: +9.3% · YTD: +13.4%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+58.6% |
Ann. |
84.9% |
Sharpe |
2.95 |
Max DD |
-8.0% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+77.0% |
SPY |
+5.9% |
$100K → |
$158,593 |
| Full backtest · 2017-01–2026-03 · 111 months |
| Total |
2,452% |
Ann. |
41.9% |
Sharpe |
1.69 |
Max DD |
-16.5% |
| Win% |
71% |
Alpha |
+30.3% |
SPY |
178% |
$100K → |
$2,552,386 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| XOM |
14.2% |
-8.1% |
| WMT |
13.8% |
+3.2% |
| JNJ |
13.8% |
-4.2% |
| CNL |
7.5% |
+9.2% |
| AUGO |
6.5% |
+22.4% |
| FDX |
5.1% |
+8.4% |
| EOG |
3.6% |
-7.8% |
| EMEQ |
3.1% |
+15.5% |
| NDSN |
2.5% |
+5.0% |
| GEV |
2.4% |
+11.1% |
| BTSG |
2.2% |
+12.3% |
| MU |
1.9% |
+23.0% |
| PCAR |
1.8% |
+7.0% |
| SPHR |
1.7% |
+13.2% |
| AAOI |
1.7% |
+79.2% |
| TPR |
1.2% |
+7.9% |
| DNTH |
1.2% |
+9.4% |
| LQDA |
1.2% |
+3.4% |
| LGCY |
1.0% |
+8.1% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
+1.1% |
| COST |
0.9% |
+1.0% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-3.3% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+4.8% |
| TERN |
0.8% |
-0.2% |
| TBN |
0.8% |
-21.4% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+24.0% |
| MUX |
0.6% |
+18.8% |
| DTCR |
0.6% |
+14.9% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-0.6% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+28.1% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+13.7% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+13.5% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+17.9% |
| META |
0.5% |
+16.9% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+6.8% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+14.1% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
+5.8% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+7.1% |
| MKOR |
0.4% |
+18.1% |
| ANAB |
0.4% |
-17.3% |
| AGX |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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