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Markets · Options · Signal
April 17, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 09:54 ET
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S&P 500
707.62
+0.85%
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Nasdaq
645.91
+0.85%
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Dow
492.10
+1.38%
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Russell 2k
273.95
+1.48%
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VIX
17.65
-1.62%
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20Y Bond
86.98
+0.82%
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Gold
447.38
+1.66%
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Silver
74.41
+4.45%
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Oil
114.17
-9.27%
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USD
27.24
-0.49%
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CNN Fear & Greed
69
Greed
wk +32 · mo +48
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AAII Survey 2026-04-15
▲ 31.7%
/
▼ 42.8%
/
25.5%
spread -11.1 · avg bull 31.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 673.83 |
Res: 708.00 |
RSI: 73.0 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 601.57 |
Res: 646.66 |
RSI: 73.9 |
|
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.25% |
-6bps |
| Spread |
+44bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
97.79 |
-0.43% |
| VIX/3M |
0.86 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.74% |
+0.04% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.3006
$134.67 · $448.00
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z +0.96 · Neutral · ρ 84%
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| ETH |
$2,436 |
+3.7% |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
09:57 ET |
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Cons. Discr.
+2.31%
XLY
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Industrials
+1.88%
XLI
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Technology
+1.23%
XLK
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Health Care
+1.10%
XLV
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Real Estate
+1.05%
XLRE
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Financials
+0.99%
XLF
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Cons. Staples
+0.68%
XLP
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Materials
+0.24%
XLB
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Communication
+0.04%
XLC
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Utilities
-0.87%
XLU
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Energy
-4.52%
XLE
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In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a risk-on rotation into cyclicals, with Industrials and Consumer Discretionary leading, while Energy and Utilities lag.
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Regime Timeline
HMM V6 · 4-state model · 42 features
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 5 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a recovery regime for 5 days, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.85% from the previous close, while the Dow and Russell 2k saw slightly larger gains. Worth watching is the divergence between the ECB's Lagarde citing upside inflation risks and the market's apparent sanguine response, with the VIX not showing significant concern despite geopolitical tensions, such as Deutsche Bank's alert on potential Russia sanctions lapses.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“It’s easy! Tucker is a Low IQ person - Always easy to beat, and highly overrated!!! So are Megyn Kelly, “Candace”(Really Dumb and mentally ill!), and Bankrupt Alex Jones, who is completely “fried.” There are others, also! Then we have some that are VERY GOOD, true MAGA all the way, and smart. I should do a list of good, bad, and somewhere in the middle. Wouldn’t that be fascinating??? President DJThttps://www.mediaite.com/media/tv/he-is-crushing-crushing-tucker-carlson-cnn-data-guru-reveals-trump-has-ruined-his-old-friend/”
1h ago
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“May have been a historic day for Lebanon. Good things are happening!!! President DJT”
11h ago
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“RT @realDonaldTrumpA Trump Hating Judge, for the first time in History, wants Congress to pay Hundreds of Millions of Dollars for a Glorious Ballroom, instead of accepting Donations from Great American Companies and Citizens. This is a first — In other words, he wants Tax Payers to pay for the Ballroom, instead of Donors and Patriots! The Ballroom is FREE to our Country, A GIFT, and vital for our National Security. This Judge, who works for another Judge who was just MANDAMUSED for the unfair and biased way he treats me, should be ashamed of himself! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
14h ago
$DXY$SPY$UUPCorporates
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“RT @realDonaldTrumpThe out of control Trump Hating, Washington, D.C. District Court Judge, who doesn’t want to accept a $400 Million Dollar GIFT of one of the most beautiful Ballrooms anywhere in the World, desperately needed by the White House and its future Presidents (Due to time constraints, I will barely get to use it!), wants me to build the “underground” portion of the Ballroom, without the “above ground” portion, but the underground doesn’t work, isn’t necessary, and would indeed be useless, without the above ground sections. The underground portion is wedded to, and serves, the upper portion, including the Bomb Shelters, a State of the Art Hospital and Medical Facilities, Protective Partitioning, Top Secret Military Installations, Structures, and Equipment, Protective Missile Resistant Steel, Columns, Roofs, and Beams, Drone Proof Ceilings and Roofs, Military Grade Venting, and Bullet, Ballistic, and Blast Proof Glass. It’s all tied together as one big, expensive, and very complex unit, which is vital for National Security and Military Operations of the United States of America! The Judge’s decision, which doesn’t even discuss the vital subject of STANDING, of which the plaintiff has none, severely jeopardizes the lives and welfare of the people who work, and will be working, at the White House — including all future Presidents of the United States, and their families. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
14h ago
$CLF$DXY$NUE$UUP
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“RT @realDonaldTrumpThe person who filed the meritless and lawless suit on the desperately needed White House Ballroom, being built as a GIFT to America (without Tax Dollars!), a woman walking her dog, has absolutely NO STANDING to bring such a monumentally important case against our Country. The Trump Hating Judge’s opinion is radically different from his first opinion, that was issued weeks ago, while still being unlawful and ambiguous, which never even addressed her COMPLETE lack of Standing. Every Political “Pundit” has said this case is meritless, even a JOKE, but it’s not a joke to me, or the people of America. Too much hard work, time, and money spent in order that a Judge can claim that he ruled against “DONALD TRUMP,” something which I have gotten very used to, BUT WILL NOT ACCEPT! President DJT”
14h ago
$DXY$SPY$UUPCorporates
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:56 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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SPY
mixed
47
“Turned $700 into $70,000 in 3 days”
WSB 2545 pts · 5/5 subs
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AMD
mixed
17
“AMD. New high score: +$6M”
WSB 6608 pts · 4/5 subs
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ANY
mixed
15
“Are there any bears left or all Extinct ?”
WSB 1895 pts · 5/5 subs
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QQQ
mixed
13
“Turned $700 into $70,000 in 3 days”
WSB 2545 pts · 5/5 subs
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NVDA
bullish
12
“Sold NVDA call by accident”
WSB 757 pts · 4/5 subs
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VS
mixed
12
“Rate My Portfolio - r/Stocks Quarterly Thread March 2026”
STK 15 pts · 5/5 subs
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VOO
mixed
12
“How to cope with losses”
WSB 743 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
bullish
11
“S&P 500 hits new all-time high as investors shrug off Iran war oil price spike”
STK 1470 pts · 2/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1890 Form 4s filed · 09:54 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-12 to 2026-04-17
Executives at CrowdStrike (CRWV) aggressively dump shares ahead of earnings, with the CEO and other top officers selling $171.7M+ collectively.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$124.7M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Intrator Michael N CEO and President |
$36.0M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$11.1M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$5.9M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$4.8M |
| SELL |
META |
Olivan Javier Chief Operating Officer |
$2.9M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 09:58 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.3% |
5.4d |
+11.0% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
31.0% |
5.2d |
-1.3% |
HIGH
|
| DNTH |
19.2% |
5.7d |
+14.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
18.5% |
1.9d |
-2.2% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.3% |
11.1d |
-4.3% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.3% |
3.4d |
-28.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| CVNA |
14.6% |
5.3d |
+16.9% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
13.3% |
4.9d |
+0.6% |
MODERATE
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 09:54 ET |
Deutsche Bank alerts regulators to potential Russia sanctions lapses
FT 3h ago
Deutsche Bank's alert to regulators about potential Russia sanctions lapses may lead to a negative market reaction, reflecting concerns over regulatory risk. This could result in a decline in Deutsche Bank's stock price and potentially broader market sell-off if investors fear other banks may have similar issues. Keep an eye on Deutsche Bank's stock price and European bank stocks for signs of contagion.
| BBG |
ECB’s Lagarde Says Risks to Inflation Outlook Tilted to Upside
ECB's Lagarde's comments on inflation risks tilted to the upside may lead to an upward revision in inflation expectations, potentially resulting in a stronger Euro and a sell-off in European bonds. Investors will be watching for the ECB's policy response to inflation risks, which could include rate hikes. This could lead to a decrease in European stocks and changes in market expectations for interest rates.
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38m ago |
| BBG |
Wall Street Turns Gloomy on the Dollar as Haven Demand Fades
Wall Street's growing gloom on the dollar as haven demand fades may lead to a decrease in demand for the dollar, resulting in a decline in its value against major currencies. This could lead to a shift towards riskier assets, such as stocks, and increased volatility in currency markets. Monitor the dollar index and currency volatility for signs of sustained sentiment shift.
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13h ago |
| BBG |
Stocks Rally as Oil Plunges on Reopening of Hormuz Strait
The reopening of the Hormuz Strait and subsequent plunge in oil prices may lead to a positive market reaction, with stocks rallying due to decreased risk premium and increased supply availability. However, this could be short-lived if geopolitical tensions escalate or oil production is significantly affected. Keep an eye on oil prices, equity markets, and news from the Strait of Hormuz.
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9m ago |
| BBG |
The Best of Watches and Wonders 2026
|
9m ago |
| FT |
What kind of rally is this?
The current market rally may be reassessed as investors question its sustainability, potentially leading to profit-taking and market consolidation. Economic data and corporate earnings reports will be crucial in determining the durability of the rally. A significant deterioration in economic fundamentals could choke the rally, while improving fundamentals could sustain it.
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8h ago |
| FJ |
MOO Imbalance
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23m ago |
| FJ |
Malta-flagged tanker Agios Fanourios I has arrived and anchored off Iraq’s southern oil terminals and is set to load about 2 mln barrels of Basra crude - Iragi ports sources
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47m ago |
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 09:54 ET |
| FJ |
Iran Opens Strait of Hormuz to Commercial Vessels
Easing tensions could reduce risk premium in crude oil prices
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1h ago |
| FJ |
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise
Traders price in higher chances of Fed rate cut in 2026
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31m ago |
| FJ |
ECB Monitoring Middle East Situation
Uncertainty in Euro area inflation outlook increased
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52m ago |
| FJ |
BoE Pill Speaks on Rates and Geopolitics
BoE's Pill sees current bank rate as restrictive
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1h ago |
| FJ |
US Growth Forecast Upgraded
US Commerce Secretary sees 6% growth under Trump
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6m ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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VRT
$299.89
+1.7%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 76 |
1M +12.2% |
3M +76.3% |
1Y +320.8% |
DOWN |
| Industrials |
$115B |
P/E 36.9 |
β 2.05 |
SI 3.5% |
Target $288 |
Rev 23% |
Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is expected to report earnings growth, with a price target of $300 raised by Barclays analyst Julian Mitchell on April 1, 2026, and a potential 19% upside to $470 in a year. The stock has a high growth profile with 23% revenue growth and a forward P/E of 36.9. However, with a beta of 2.05 and 3.5% short interest, volatility and potential downside risks remain.
|
|
ANET
$161.93
+0.4%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 61 |
1M +16.0% |
3M +23.4% |
1Y +109.7% |
FLAT |
| Technology |
$204B |
P/E 37.8 |
β 1.48 |
SI 1.6% |
Target $177 |
Rev 29% |
Arista Networks (ANET) received a boost in confidence from Rosenblatt Securities, which upgraded the stock in April citing strong demand for scale-out Ethernet and new front-end networking wins with major AI customers Google and Anthropic. ANET's composite score is 61/100 with a flat trend, and its returns are +16.0% in 1M, +23.4% in 3M, and +109.7% in 1Y. The market may be mispricing the risk of intense competition in AI-driven networking, where ANET's high valuation (Fwd P/E 37.8) and beta (1.48) could be vulnerable to a downturn.
|
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
|
2026-04-01 |
| TSLA |
Hold |
29 / 21 / 10
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 17 |
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
|
— |
$613M |
| Apr 17 |
ALMR
Alamar Biosciences, Inc.
|
— |
$183M |
| Apr 17 |
AVEX
AEVEX Corp.
|
— |
$372M |
| Apr 22 |
NHP
National Healthcare Properties, Inc.
|
— |
$708M |
| Apr 22 |
YSWY
Yesway, Inc.
|
— |
$369M |
| Apr 22 |
EMI
Encore Medical, Inc.
|
— |
$17M |
| Apr 23 |
ELMT
Elmet Group Co.
|
— |
$124M |
| Apr 28 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 09:57 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
2,038,503 |
1,052,750 |
985,753 |
0.94
|
$700C 151,969 vol |
| SPY: Slightly bearish flow with P/C=0.94, but $700C buying suggests bullish bets on continued recovery. |
| TSLA |
1,740,069 |
982,940 |
757,129 |
0.77
|
$400C 173,650 vol |
| TSLA: Aggressive call buying, P/C=0.77, with $400C leading volume, implying bullish directional bet. |
| QQQ |
1,448,157 |
703,350 |
744,807 |
1.06
|
$640C 96,661 vol |
| QQQ: Mixed flow, P/C=1.06, with $640C buying, no clear directional signal. |
| NVDA |
1,145,837 |
746,848 |
398,989 |
0.53
|
$200C 250,812 vol |
| NVDA: Bullish flow with low P/C=0.53, led by $200C buying, suggesting upside bets. |
| AMD |
407,340 |
255,184 |
152,156 |
0.60
|
$270C 82,105 vol |
| AMD: Call-heavy flow, P/C=0.60, with $270C leading volume, indicating bullish positioning. |
|
|
GEV
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$265B
· Earnings Jan 28
· Div 0.2%
|
| $880P |
28 DTE |
+27.4% ann. |
+10.2% OTM |
Δ 0.22 |
POP 78% |
|
| Xcel Wealth Management LLC has purchased 3,088 shares of GE Vernova Inc., as reported by MarketBeat. |
|
AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$4B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $68P |
21 DTE |
+224.9% ann. |
+11.5% OTM |
Δ 0.27 |
POP 73% |
|
| AXTI stock price surged 12.8% amid market volatility, prompting questions about whether the company remains a buy, according to MarketBeat. |
|
LITE
CSP
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$64B
· Earnings Feb 03
|
| $720P |
21 DTE |
+54.1% ann. |
+19.9% OTM |
Δ 0.18 |
POP 82% |
|
| LITE stock is down 4% today, according to Quiver Quantitative, after a 90% first quarter rally, as discussed by Jim Cramer on Yahoo Finance. |
|
INTC
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$347B
· Earnings Jan 22
|
| $75C |
28 DTE |
+67.2% ann. |
+8.9% OTM |
Δ 0.08 |
POP 92% |
|
| Intel stock is trading up today following the launch of its Core Series 3 Processors, according to TipRanks. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$4B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $83C |
21 DTE |
+299.9% ann. |
+4.9% OTM |
Δ 0.20 |
POP 80% |
|
| AXTI stock price surged 12.8% amid market volatility, prompting questions about whether the company remains a buy, according to MarketBeat. |
|
LITE
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$64B
· Earnings Feb 03
|
| $1010C |
42 DTE |
+81.7% ann. |
+13.0% OTM |
Δ 0.06 |
POP 94% |
|
| LITE stock is down 4% today, according to Quiver Quantitative, after a 90% first quarter rally, as discussed by Jim Cramer on Yahoo Finance. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $708 · QQQ $646 · VIX 17.7 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 17.7 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$700P |
61d |
1 |
$13.43 |
$1,343 |
8.0% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$720P |
61d |
1 |
$21.36 |
$2,136 |
12.8% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$690P |
61d |
2 |
$10.82 |
$2,164 |
12.9% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $720P 61d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$673 |
112% |
$98,358 |
| Correction -10% |
$637 |
97% |
$97,648 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$602 |
93% |
$96,937 |
| Crash -20% |
$566 |
90% |
$96,227 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$645P |
61d |
1 |
$18.88 |
$1,888 |
11.3% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$660P |
61d |
1 |
$25.88 |
$2,588 |
15.5% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$635P |
61d |
2 |
$15.32 |
$3,064 |
18.3% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $660P 61d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$614 |
109% |
$97,799 |
| Correction -10% |
$581 |
93% |
$96,778 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$549 |
87% |
$95,758 |
| Crash -20% |
$517 |
84% |
$94,738 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 09:57 ET
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 17 (MTD) · Hit rate: 29/40 · Avg return: +9.2% · YTD: +9.2%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+59.6% |
Ann. |
86.4% |
Sharpe |
2.81 |
Max DD |
-9.7% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+77.0% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$159,551 |
| Full backtest · 2017-01–2026-03 · 111 months |
| Total |
2,019% |
Ann. |
39.1% |
Sharpe |
1.64 |
Max DD |
-15.8% |
| Win% |
71% |
Alpha |
+28.5% |
SPY |
154% |
$100K → |
$2,118,800 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
14.4% |
-0.1% |
| XOM |
14.0% |
-10.4% |
| JNJ |
13.4% |
-4.4% |
| CNL |
7.7% |
+9.1% |
| AUGO |
6.2% |
+24.9% |
| FDX |
5.1% |
+7.1% |
| TPR |
3.6% |
+0.0% |
| EMEQ |
3.5% |
+16.3% |
| GEV |
2.8% |
+10.3% |
| NDSN |
2.5% |
+5.4% |
| BTSG |
2.2% |
+10.3% |
| MU |
1.9% |
+25.1% |
| EOG |
1.8% |
-10.2% |
| DNTH |
1.7% |
+10.2% |
| AAOI |
1.7% |
+0.0% |
| PCAR |
1.2% |
+7.3% |
| LQDA |
1.2% |
+8.0% |
| TBN |
1.2% |
-21.1% |
| AAMI |
1.0% |
+20.2% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+5.8% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-3.4% |
| COST |
0.9% |
-1.0% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
+2.2% |
| TERN |
0.8% |
-0.2% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+21.4% |
| AGX |
0.6% |
+6.4% |
| MUX |
0.6% |
+19.2% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+13.2% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+4.9% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
+3.9% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+20.4% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+14.5% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+28.5% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+15.2% |
| META |
0.5% |
+18.2% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+5.9% |
| MKOR |
0.5% |
+18.6% |
| ANAB |
0.4% |
+18.7% |
| SYRE |
0.4% |
+45.9% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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