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Markets · Options · Signal
April 16, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 09:37 ET
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S&P 500
700.91
+0.14%
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Nasdaq
637.99
+0.09%
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Dow
486.14
+0.29%
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Russell 2k
269.89
+0.19%
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VIX
18.29
+0.66%
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20Y Bond
86.96
+0.14%
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Gold
442.47
+0.46%
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Silver
72.04
+0.29%
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Oil
124.83
+1.83%
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USD
27.35
+0.24%
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CNN Fear & Greed
58
Greed
wk +20 · mo +38
|
AAII Survey 2026-04-15
▲ 31.7%
/
▼ 42.8%
/
25.5%
spread -11.1 · avg bull 31.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 673.35 |
Res: 701.30 |
RSI: 70.2 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 600.70 |
Res: 639.58 |
RSI: 71.3 |
|
Econ Calendar |
4 high-impact · Thu Apr 16 – Thu Apr 16 · as of 09:38 ET |
| Thu Apr 16 |
| 02:00 |
GB |
GDP (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.1%, prev. 0.1% |
| 05:00 |
EU |
CPI (YoY) (Mar) — est. 2.5%, prev. 1.9% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 213K, prev. 218K |
| 08:30 |
US |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) — est. 10.3, prev. 18.1 |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.27% |
-1bps |
| Spread |
+46bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
98.20 |
+0.14% |
| VIX/3M |
0.88 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.70% |
-0.17% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2960
$131.04 · $442.75
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z +0.75 · Neutral · ρ 83%
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| BTC |
$74,672 |
-0.2% |
| ETH |
$2,340 |
-0.8% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0313 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
09:41 ET |
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Energy
+1.06%
XLE
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Materials
+0.84%
XLB
|
Real Estate
+0.62%
XLRE
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|
Communication
+0.57%
XLC
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Technology
+0.52%
XLK
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Industrials
+0.36%
XLI
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Financials
+0.27%
XLF
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Utilities
+0.11%
XLU
|
Cons. Staples
+0.00%
XLP
|
|
Cons. Discr.
-0.37%
XLY
|
Health Care
-0.38%
XLV
|
In today's RECOVERY regime, cyclical sectors like Energy, Materials, and Real Estate lead, while defensive plays like Health Care and Cons. Staples lag.
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Regime Timeline
HMM V6 · 4-state model · 42 features
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 5 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 5 days, with the S&P 500 up 0.14% from the previous close, while the Dow outperformed with a 0.29% gain. Worth watching is the divergence between Fed's Williams comments on closely following bank exposure to private equity and BNY's record revenue beating analyst estimates.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“Trying to get a little breathing room between Israel and Lebanon. It has been a long time since the two leaders have spoken, like 34 years. It will happen tomorrow. Nice! President DJT”
10h ago
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“I am working very hard with our Great Speaker, Mike Johnson, along with Chairman Jim Jordan and Chairman Rick Crawford, to get a clean extension of FISA 702 through the House of Representatives this week. I am asking Republicans to UNIFY, and vote together on the test vote to bring a clean Bill to the floor. We need to stick together when this Bill comes before the House Rules Committee today to keep it CLEAN!When the Dirty Cop, James Comey, the failed Head of the FBI went after me, he was using FISA Title I, the Domestic Collection, not FISA 702, the Foreign Collection, which needs to be extended today. While parts of FISA were illegally and unfortunately used against me in the Democrats’ disgraceful Witch Hunt and Attack in the RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA Hoax, and perhaps would be used against me in the future, I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our Great Military and Country! Our Military Patriots desperately need FISA 702, and it is one of the reasons we have had such tremendous SUCCESS on the battlefield. I have spoken with many in our Military who say FISA is necessary in order to protect our Troops overseas, as well as our people here at home, from the threat of Foreign Terror Attacks. It has already prevented MANY such Attacks, and it is very important that it remain in full force and effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
23h ago
$RSXEnergyWheat
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“JEROME STARKEY: If hot air was a weapon Starmer would have rearmed Britain – but words don’t win wars:https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/38819687/starmer-words-dont-win-wars-iran-russia-jerome-starkey/”
1d ago
$RSX$USO$XLEDefense
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“China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I am doing it for them, also - And the World. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran. President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are working together smartly, and very well! Doesn’t that beat fighting??? BUT REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting, if we have to - far better than anyone else!!! President DJT”
1d ago
$BABA$FXI$KWEB$USO
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“Chokehold: Iran could run out of oil storage with Trump blockade, wreaking havoc with its economy: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/energy/strait-hormuz-blockaded-globe-has-limited-options-address-energy-shortfall”
1d ago
$USO$XLEClean EnergyDefense
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:40 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
|
SPY
mixed
38
“The last bear is me”
WSB 698 pts · 5/5 subs
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ANY
mixed
23
“I Turned My Escort Waiting Time Into A Research Report And Now I Think I'm A Gen…”
WSB 757 pts · 5/5 subs
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VS
mixed
19
“I Turned My Escort Waiting Time Into A Research Report And Now I Think I'm A Gen…”
WSB 757 pts · 5/5 subs
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NKE
bullish
10
“$NKE”
WSB 5256 pts · 2/5 subs
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VOO
mixed
10
“How to cope with losses”
WSB 562 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
bullish
10
“0-2Dte”
WSB 13 pts · 4/5 subs
|
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MOD
mixed
9
“I Turned My Escort Waiting Time Into A Research Report And Now I Think I'm A Gen…”
WSB 757 pts · 3/5 subs
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QQQ
bullish
8
“Turned $700 into $70,000 in 3 days”
WSB 453 pts · 5/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1235 Form 4s filed · 09:38 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-11 to 2026-04-16
Cyberark (CRWV) executives dump shares ahead of earnings, while a director takes a bullish bet on Mesosphere (MESO) in the cloud infrastructure sector.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$124.7M |
| BUY |
MESO |
George Gregory Director |
$11.4M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$11.1M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$4.8M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$4.1M |
| SELL |
META |
Olivan Javier Chief Operating Officer |
$2.9M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 09:41 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
|
| DNTH |
19.5% |
7.1d |
+13.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.3% |
11.1d |
-4.3% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.3% |
3.4d |
-28.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| CVNA |
14.6% |
5.3d |
+16.9% |
MODERATE
|
| AAOI |
13.7% |
1.0d |
-3.0% |
LOW
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 09:38 ET |
Fed's Williams: The Fed is closely following bank exposure to private equity.
FJ 20m ago
The Fed's close monitoring of bank exposure to private equity may lead to increased scrutiny or action against banks with significant private equity exposure. This could potentially put pressure on risk assets, particularly bank stocks with high private equity exposure. Keep an eye on the Fed's communication for further details on their concerns and potential actions.
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 09:38 ET |
| FJ |
Fed's Williams on Financial Stability
Fed's Williams notes good liquidity levels, functioning Treasury market.
|
27m ago |
| FJ |
ECB Inflation Shock
ECB's Schnabel says in good position to deal with inflation shock.
|
14m ago |
| FJ |
German Growth and Inflation
German government cuts growth forecasts, expects inflation to rise.
|
27m ago |
| FJ |
Iranian Oil and Strait of Hormuz
Iranian oil tankers transport 11mln barrels, revenue plan stalls.
|
4m ago |
| FJ |
US Industrial Production
US Industrial Production misses forecast, capacity utilization dips.
|
22m ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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CRS
$436.03
+1.6%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 81 |
1M +12.4% |
3M +32.7% |
1Y +147.8% |
FLAT |
| Industrials |
$22B |
P/E 35.8 |
β 1.24 |
SI 4.4% |
Target $431 |
Rev 8% |
Carpenter Technology (CRS) surged on 12 huge inflows, with Jim Cramer urging investors to "hold on to it". The stock has shown double-digit returns over the past month (+12.4%) and 3 months (+32.7%), with a 1-year return of +147.8%. However, with a forward P/E of 35.8 and a beta of 1.24, the market may be overestimating its growth prospects.
|
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AGX
$601.38
-0.6%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 80 |
1M +28.0% |
3M +90.8% |
1Y +310.8% |
FLAT |
| Industrials |
$8B |
P/E 40.3 |
β 0.46 |
SI 6.0% |
Target $473 |
Rev 13% |
Argan (AGX) has seen its fair value estimate reset to $473.20, driven by increasing power demand tied to AI and data centers, with firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs backing the higher target range. The stock has surged 92% in 6 months and 310.8% in the past year, with a forward P/E of 40.3 and a short interest of 6.0%. However, its premium valuation poses a risk to future upside.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
Earnings This Week |
Apr 16 – Apr 30 · 09:41 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| GEV |
Apr 22 ☀ |
N/A |
| Investors should watch GE Vernova's upcoming earnings on April 22 to see if the company's strong multi-period share price run is justified by its current valuation and performance. |
| TSLA |
Apr 22 ☽ |
N/A |
| Investors will closely watch Tesla's Q1 earnings on April 22, as analysts express caution ahead of the report, potentially impacting the stock's recent 8% surge. |
| VRT |
Apr 22 ☀ |
N/A |
| Investors will closely watch Vertiv's upcoming earnings on April 22 to see if the company's $15 billion backlog and dominance in liquid cooling can sustain its recent stock surge. |
| PCAR |
Apr 28 ☀ |
N/A |
| Investors should watch Paccar's (PCAR) upcoming earnings on Apr 28 for signs of improvement, as the stock has been underperforming the market and its competitors lately. |
| STX |
Apr 28 ☽ |
N/A |
| Seagate Technology's stock has climbed 47% over its 10-day winning spree, making its upcoming earnings report on April 28 potentially pivotal for the stock's momentum. |
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 16 |
ARXS
Arxis, Inc.
|
— |
$1.2B |
| Apr 16 |
MAIR
Madison Air Solutions Corp
|
— |
$2.6B |
| Apr 16 |
MRCOU
Mercator Acquisition Corp.
|
— |
$288M |
| Apr 17 |
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
|
— |
$613M |
| Apr 17 |
ALMR
Alamar Biosciences, Inc.
|
— |
$183M |
| Apr 17 |
AVEX
AEVEX Corp.
|
— |
$372M |
| Apr 17 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| Apr 22 |
NHP
National Healthcare Properties, Inc.
|
— |
$708M |
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 09:41 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| TSLA |
1,621,499 |
1,041,251 |
580,248 |
0.56
|
$400C 130,632 vol |
| TSLA: Call-heavy flow with $400C hot, P/C=0.56, suggests bullish directional bet. |
| SPY |
1,103,088 |
578,845 |
524,243 |
0.91
|
$698C 113,496 vol |
| SPY: Neutral P/C ratio near 1, hot $698C, implies mixed flow, no clear directional signal. |
| NVDA |
1,061,335 |
760,494 |
300,841 |
0.40
|
$200C 233,123 vol |
| NVDA: Aggressive call buying, P/C=0.40, $200C leads, indicates bullish institutional positioning. |
| QQQ |
456,335 |
196,610 |
259,725 |
1.32
|
$635C 61,064 vol |
| QQQ: Put-heavy flow, P/C=1.32, suggests hedge or bearish earnings play. |
| AMD |
142,776 |
77,656 |
65,120 |
0.84
|
$260C 15,561 vol |
| AMD: Call-heavy flow, hot $260C, P/C=0.84, implies moderate bullish bet. |
|
|
VRT
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$115B
· Earnings Apr 22
· Div 8.0%
|
| $255P |
22 DTE |
+32.2% ann. |
+15.2% OTM |
Δ 0.17 |
POP 83% |
|
| Vertiv's $15 billion backlog and dominance in liquid cooling are driving interest in the stock amid the AI trade, according to Seeking Alpha. |
|
AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$4B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $51P |
22 DTE |
+182.2% ann. |
+16.2% OTM |
Δ 0.26 |
POP 74% |
|
| AXTI slid 12% due to valuation worries and pre-earnings volatility after a sharp run-up, according to Quiver Quantitative. |
|
STX
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
|
$117B
· Earnings Apr 28
· Div 57.0%
|
| $410P |
29 DTE |
+31.3% ann. |
+19.9% OTM |
Δ 0.15 |
POP 85% |
|
| Seagate Technology Holdings PLC ($STX) has risen 47% over a 10-day winning spree, according to Trefis, with KBC Group NV growing its position. |
|
FTAI
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$28B
· Earnings Apr 29
· Div 50.0%
|
| $290C |
29 DTE |
+63.4% ann. |
+8.5% OTM |
Δ 0.09 |
POP 91% |
|
| FTAI Infrastructure is set to post its Q1 results on May 7 and hold a conference call on May 8. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$4B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $63C |
22 DTE |
+305.6% ann. |
+5.0% OTM |
Δ 0.17 |
POP 83% |
|
| AXTI slid 12% due to valuation worries and pre-earnings volatility after a sharp run-up, according to Quiver Quantitative. |
|
LITE
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$62B
· Earnings May 05
|
| $940C |
43 DTE |
+75.6% ann. |
+14.0% OTM |
Δ 0.06 |
POP 94% |
|
| Lumentum Holdings (LITE) has surged 90% in the first quarter, sparking discussion about its growth prospects and recent stock performance. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $701 · QQQ $638 · VIX 18.3 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.3 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$695P |
60d |
1 |
$17.93 |
$1,793 |
10.9% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$715P |
60d |
1 |
$33.94 |
$3,394 |
20.6% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$685P |
60d |
2 |
$15.10 |
$3,020 |
18.4% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $715P 60d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$666 |
116% |
$97,272 |
| Correction -10% |
$631 |
99% |
$96,527 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$596 |
94% |
$95,781 |
| Crash -20% |
$561 |
91% |
$95,036 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$555P |
62d |
1 |
$163.03 |
$16,303 |
96.0% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$555P |
62d |
1 |
$163.03 |
$16,303 |
96.0% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$555P |
62d |
2 |
$163.03 |
$32,606 |
192.0% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $555P 62d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$606 |
0% |
$79,447 |
| Correction -10% |
$574 |
0% |
$75,197 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$542 |
10% |
$72,199 |
| Crash -20% |
$511 |
26% |
$71,140 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 09:41 ET
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 16 (MTD) · Hit rate: 31/40 · Avg return: +9.5% · YTD: +10.0%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+59.3% |
Ann. |
86.1% |
Sharpe |
2.80 |
Max DD |
-9.7% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+76.7% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$159,324 |
| Full backtest · 2017-01–2026-03 · 111 months |
| Total |
2,018% |
Ann. |
39.1% |
Sharpe |
1.65 |
Max DD |
-15.7% |
| Win% |
70% |
Alpha |
+28.5% |
SPY |
154% |
$100K → |
$2,118,328 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
14.4% |
-0.4% |
| XOM |
14.0% |
-6.6% |
| JNJ |
13.4% |
-3.1% |
| CNL |
7.7% |
+4.7% |
| AUGO |
6.2% |
+21.6% |
| FDX |
5.1% |
+2.7% |
| TPR |
3.6% |
+4.0% |
| EMEQ |
3.5% |
+13.7% |
| GEV |
2.8% |
+10.0% |
| NDSN |
2.5% |
+3.7% |
| BTSG |
2.2% |
+9.4% |
| MU |
1.9% |
+21.7% |
| EOG |
1.8% |
-5.4% |
| DNTH |
1.7% |
+12.1% |
| AAOI |
1.7% |
+62.5% |
| PCAR |
1.2% |
+5.8% |
| LQDA |
1.2% |
+6.4% |
| TBN |
1.2% |
-17.3% |
| AAMI |
1.0% |
+19.0% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+4.6% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-4.0% |
| COST |
0.9% |
-0.9% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
+1.1% |
| TERN |
0.8% |
-0.1% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+17.1% |
| AGX |
0.6% |
+5.6% |
| MUX |
0.6% |
+16.6% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+13.3% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+3.1% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
+1.2% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+17.5% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+12.1% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+26.0% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-0.8% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+13.1% |
| META |
0.5% |
+16.5% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+4.9% |
| MKOR |
0.5% |
+14.5% |
| ANAB |
0.4% |
+17.9% |
| SYRE |
0.4% |
+37.1% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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