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Markets · Options · Signal
April 15, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 16:23 ET
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S&P 500
699.94
+0.79%
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Nasdaq
637.40
+1.40%
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Dow
484.72
-0.16%
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Russell 2k
269.42
+0.26%
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VIX
18.13
-1.25%
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20Y Bond
86.83
-0.44%
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Gold
440.46
-1.04%
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Silver
71.84
-0.28%
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Oil
122.59
-1.02%
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USD
27.29
-0.11%
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CNN Fear & Greed
57
Greed
wk +23 · mo +36
|
AAII Survey 2026-04-08
▲ 35.7%
/
▼ 43.0%
/
21.3%
spread -7.3 · avg bull 35.0%
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 673.08 |
Res: 700.28 |
RSI: 69.8 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 600.26 |
Res: 637.65 |
RSI: 71.1 |
|
Econ Calendar |
5 high-impact · Wed Apr 15 – Thu Apr 16 · as of 16:23 ET |
| Wed Apr 15 |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — est. 2.100M, prev. 3.081M |
| Thu Apr 16 |
| 02:00 |
GB |
GDP (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.1%, prev. 0.0% |
| 05:00 |
EU |
CPI (YoY) (Mar) — est. 2.5%, prev. 1.9% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 213K, prev. 219K |
| 08:30 |
US |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) — est. 10.3, prev. 18.1 |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.28% |
+3bps |
| Spread |
+48bps |
Steepening |
| DXY |
98.08 |
-0.04% |
| VIX/3M |
0.87 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.70% |
-0.17% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2937
$129.38 · $440.46
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z +0.66 · Neutral · ρ 84%
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| BTC |
$74,609 |
+0.6% |
| ETH |
$2,357 |
+1.4% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0316 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
16:26 ET |
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Technology
+1.57%
XLK
|
Cons. Discr.
+1.49%
XLY
|
Financials
+0.73%
XLF
|
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Communication
+0.69%
XLC
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Real Estate
-0.05%
XLRE
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Energy
-0.34%
XLE
|
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Cons. Staples
-0.50%
XLP
|
Health Care
-0.71%
XLV
|
Utilities
-0.97%
XLU
|
|
Materials
-1.21%
XLB
|
Industrials
-1.25%
XLI
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In today's RECOVERY regime, tech and consumer discretionary sectors lead, while defensives like utilities lag, signaling a clear risk-on rotation.
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Regime Timeline
HMM V6 · 4-state model · 42 features
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 5 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a RECOVERY regime for 5 days, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq leading the charge with +0.79% and +1.40% moves, respectively, amid ceasefire hopes and strong corporate earnings. Worth watching is the divergence between the dovish Fed commentary on easing tariff impact and the market's reaction, as hedge funds pivot to bearish dollar bets on US-Iran talks optimism.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“I am working very hard with our Great Speaker, Mike Johnson, along with Chairman Jim Jordan and Chairman Rick Crawford, to get a clean extension of FISA 702 through the House of Representatives this week. I am asking Republicans to UNIFY, and vote together on the test vote to bring a clean Bill to the floor. We need to stick together when this Bill comes before the House Rules Committee today to keep it CLEAN!When the Dirty Cop, James Comey, the failed Head of the FBI went after me, he was using FISA Title I, the Domestic Collection, not FISA 702, the Foreign Collection, which needs to be extended today. While parts of FISA were illegally and unfortunately used against me in the Democrats’ disgraceful Witch Hunt and Attack in the RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA Hoax, and perhaps would be used against me in the future, I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our Great Military and Country! Our Military Patriots desperately need FISA 702, and it is one of the reasons we have had such tremendous SUCCESS on the battlefield. I have spoken with many in our Military who say FISA is necessary in order to protect our Troops overseas, as well as our people here at home, from the threat of Foreign Terror Attacks. It has already prevented MANY such Attacks, and it is very important that it remain in full force and effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
6h ago
$RSXEnergyWheat
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“JEROME STARKEY: If hot air was a weapon Starmer would have rearmed Britain – but words don’t win wars:https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/38819687/starmer-words-dont-win-wars-iran-russia-jerome-starkey/”
8h ago
$RSX$USO$XLEDefense
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“China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I am doing it for them, also - And the World. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran. President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are working together smartly, and very well! Doesn’t that beat fighting??? BUT REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting, if we have to - far better than anyone else!!! President DJT”
8h ago
$BABA$FXI$KWEB$USO
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“Chokehold: Iran could run out of oil storage with Trump blockade, wreaking havoc with its economy: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/energy/strait-hormuz-blockaded-globe-has-limited-options-address-energy-shortfall”
16h ago
$USO$XLEClean EnergyDefense
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“'Abuse of discretion': Appeals court slaps down Judge Boasberg over contempt probe: https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/appeals-court-shuts-down-boasberg-contempt-investigation”
16h ago
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 16:25 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
|
AI
mixed
84
“Allbirds shares jump over 400% on plans to pivot to AI from sneakers”
WSB 2604 pts · 5/5 subs
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ANY
mixed
19
“The genuinely bullish thesis my 🌈 🐻 self never saw coming”
WSB 160 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
SPY
mixed
15
“$700 SPY history in the making”
WSB 392 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
mixed
7
“Due Diligence on Take Two Interactive (TTWO) before Grand Theft Auto VI.”
WSB 29 pts · 4/5 subs
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VOO
bullish
5
“Short Put Verticals”
TG 15 pts · 4/5 subs
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BRO
mixed
5
“BIRD, the question no one is asking”
STK 160 pts · 4/5 subs
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V
bullish
5
“Options Questions Safe Haven periodic megathread | April 6 2026”
OPT 6 pts · 5/5 subs
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MSFT
bullish
5
“The genuinely bullish thesis my 🌈 🐻 self never saw coming”
WSB 160 pts · 5/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1349 Form 4s filed · 16:23 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-10 to 2026-04-15
Biotech/Meso sector insiders on fire, with CEO Huang and Director George aggressively buying MESO, while tech executives pare down stakes in ROKU and RDDT.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| BUY |
COE |
Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer |
$35.3M |
| BUY |
MESO |
George Gregory Director |
$26.1M |
| SELL |
ROKU |
Collier Charles President, Roku Media |
$21.6M |
| BUY |
MESO |
George Gregory Director |
$11.4M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$4.1M |
| SELL |
RDDT |
Slowe Christopher Brian Chief Technology Officer |
$2.3M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 16:27 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
|
| DNTH |
19.5% |
7.1d |
+13.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.3% |
11.1d |
-4.3% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.3% |
3.4d |
-28.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| CVNA |
14.6% |
5.3d |
+16.9% |
MODERATE
|
| AAOI |
13.7% |
1.0d |
-3.0% |
LOW
|
|
Market Headlines |
8 sources · 16:23 ET |
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Hit Records as Ceasefire Hopes Fuel Rally
BBG 6h ago
With ceasefire hopes fueling the rally, it's likely that risk assets will continue to gain, potentially leading to a decrease in safe-haven assets like bonds and gold. However, the durability of the ceasefire and its impact on market sentiment remains to be seen. Keep an eye on developments in US-China trade talks and Middle East tensions.
| BBG |
Morgan Stanley Raises $10 Billion After Strong Earnings Report
Morgan Stanley's strong earnings report and successful $10 billion fundraising effort may boost confidence in the financial sector, potentially leading to increased investor appetite and a positive impact on stock prices. The key question is whether this momentum can be sustained, particularly in light of upcoming earnings reports from other financial institutions.
|
5h ago |
| FT |
‘Bifs’ replace ‘Piigs’ as Europe’s bond market whipping boys
The shift in focus towards Belgium's bonds, or 'Bifs', could lead to a widening of spreads relative to German bunds, potentially causing a ripple effect in European bond markets. Investors should monitor the ECB's stance and upcoming economic data releases for further clues on the implications of this trend.
|
16h ago |
| BBG |
Wave of $15B US IPOs Set to Hit Market
The wave of $15 billion US IPOs set to hit the market may inject liquidity into equities, potentially leading to increased allocations to new listings. However, the performance of recently listed companies and the overall market conditions will be crucial in determining the sustainability of this trend.
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Fed's Musalem: Easing tariff impact will help lower inflation. Housing inflation also moving in right direction.
The easing of tariff impacts and decreasing housing inflation, as noted by Fed's Musalem, may lead to lower inflation expectations and a less aggressive Fed stance. This could, in turn, boost bonds and long-duration equities, but investors should remain vigilant ahead of upcoming CPI and PCE releases.
|
1h ago |
| BBG |
Hedge Funds Pivot to Bearish Dollar Bets on US-Iran Talks Optimism
Optimism about US-Iran talks may lead to a decrease in safe-haven demand for the USD, potentially causing a decline in its value against other currencies. Hedge funds' bearish USD bets may gain traction, but the durability of this trend hinges on the progress of US-Iran talks and their impact on market sentiment.
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11h ago |
| BBG |
China’s $51 Trillion Savings Help Bonds to Outperform During War
|
23m ago |
| FT |
S&P 500 hits record high as markets surge back from Iran shock
|
2h ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 16:23 ET |
| FJ |
Fed Signals Slower Growth
Fed's Musalem sees GDP growth between 1.5-2% this year
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Crude Prices Rise
Brent crude settles at $94.93/bbl, up 0.15%
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
US-Iran Tensions Simmer
US and Iran hold talks in Pakistan next week
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
Yen Weakness Helps Japan
IMF says weak yen has aided Japan's economy
|
49m ago |
| FJ |
Central Banks Monitor Inflation
ECB's Villeroy sees limited impact on underlying inflation
|
1h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
|
|
AVGO
$396.72
+0.9%
|
Bullish
|
| Technology |
$1.9T |
P/E 22.0 |
β 1.25 |
SI 1.1% |
Target $473 |
Rev 30% |
Broadcom's stock rose after announcing an extended partnership with Meta Platforms to develop custom AI processors, which could be a goldmine for the company. The partnership is seen as a positive catalyst, but geopolitical risk is still a concern. Broadcom's forward P/E is 22.0, with a market capitalization of $1.9T and revenue growth of 30%, but the market may be mispricing the risk of US-Iran tensions.
|
|
WDC
$365.00
+0.3%
|
Bullish
|
| Technology |
$125B |
P/E 26.8 |
β 1.83 |
SI 9.2% |
Target $336 |
Rev 25% |
Western Digital (WDC) received an upgrade from Bernstein on March 31 to Outperform with a raised price target from $170 to $340, citing the company's role in providing reliable data storage solutions for the AI-driven economy. The stock has a forward P/E of 26.8, market capitalization of $125B, and analyst target price of $336. Risks include high beta of 1.83 and short interest of 9.2%.
|
|
The Middle East ceasefire eases tensions, potentially reducing safe-haven demand for gold and impacting the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). GDX's performance is being compared to other mining ETFs, such as SLVP and SGDM, with differences in fees, yield, and risk. A 172.7x minute spike in insider activity with an insider score of 95 suggests bullish sentiment among insiders.
|
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|
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
Earnings This Week |
Apr 15 – Apr 29 · 16:26 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| GEV |
Apr 22 |
±3% |
| Investors should watch GE Vernova's (GEV) ability to balance offshore wind legal risks with growing power needs from AI data centers in its upcoming earnings report on April 22. |
| TSLA |
Apr 22 ☽ |
±0% |
| Investors will watch Tesla's upcoming earnings on April 22 to see if the company's AI progress, highlighted by its recent AI5 milestone, translates into improved financial performance. |
| AMZN |
Apr 23 ☽ |
±0% |
| Amazon's upcoming earnings on April 23 will be closely watched for updates on its growth trajectory, particularly after a recent rally fueled by its Globalstar acquisition. |
| PCAR |
Apr 28 ☀ |
±2% |
| Investors should watch Paccar's (PCAR) upcoming earnings on Apr 28 for signs of resilience amidst a potentially challenging macro environment, given recent stock declines and insider selling. |
| MSFT |
Apr 29 ☽ |
±0% |
| Microsoft's stock is positioned to react to its upcoming earnings report on April 29, with investors eyeing key results to gauge the company's performance. |
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 16 |
ARXS
Arxis, Inc.
|
— |
$1.2B |
| Apr 16 |
MAIR
Madison Air Solutions Corp
|
— |
$2.6B |
| Apr 17 |
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
|
— |
$613M |
| Apr 17 |
ALMR
Alamar Biosciences, Inc.
|
— |
$183M |
| Apr 17 |
AVEX
AEVEX Corp.
|
— |
$372M |
| Apr 17 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| Apr 22 |
NHP
National Healthcare Properties, Inc.
|
— |
$708M |
| Apr 22 |
YSWY
Yesway, Inc.
|
— |
$369M |
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 16:26 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
5,914,192 |
3,655,812 |
2,258,380 |
0.62
|
$697C 756,152 vol |
| SPY: Call-heavy flow with P/C=0.62 and 756,152 $697C suggests bullish directional bet. |
| TSLA |
3,052,679 |
1,990,631 |
1,062,048 |
0.53
|
$390C 275,534 vol |
| TSLA: Aggressive call buying with P/C=0.53 and 275,534 $390C implies bullish position. |
| NVDA |
1,369,602 |
937,297 |
432,305 |
0.46
|
$200C 416,502 vol |
| NVDA: Low P/C=0.46 and massive 416,502 $200C volume indicates strong bullish conviction. |
| QQQ |
867,412 |
657,334 |
210,078 |
0.32
|
$635C 327,152 vol |
| QQQ: Extremely low P/C=0.32 with 327,152 $635C suggests aggressive bullish bet. |
| AMD |
137,750 |
75,134 |
62,616 |
0.83
|
$260C 15,161 vol |
| AMD: Mixed flow with P/C=0.83 and no standout strike, no clear directional signal. |
|
|
PL
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$12B
· Earnings Jun 03
|
| $29P |
31 DTE |
+42.6% ann. |
+19.8% OTM |
Δ 0.23 |
POP 77% |
|
| Planet Labs' stock is up 2% today, according to Quiver Quantitative, and has a CSP opportunity with 29.0P and 42.6% annual return. |
|
AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$3B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $60P |
31 DTE |
+211.9% ann. |
+10.5% OTM |
Δ 0.32 |
POP 68% |
|
| AXTI fell 12.8% after announcing plans to boost share capacity to fund its AI-focused indium phosphide expansion. |
|
MRVL
CSP
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$118B
· Earnings May 28
· Div 18.0%
|
| $109P |
38 DTE |
+11.5% ann. |
+19.8% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
|
| Oppenheimer boosted Marvell Technology's price target to $17, citing a growth outlook that prompted bullish views on the stock. |
|
MU
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$515B
· Earnings Jun 24
· Div 13.0%
|
| $470C |
31 DTE |
+57.1% ann. |
+9.1% OTM |
Δ 0.08 |
POP 92% |
|
| Micron Technology's stock fell 5% amid a broader decline in memory stocks, with SanDisk also dropping 7%, according to Yahoo Finance. |
|
AAOI
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$11B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $160C |
24 DTE |
+217.2% ann. |
+7.8% OTM |
Δ 0.08 |
POP 92% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics' stock price recently jumped 18.9% and also faced a 6.2% decline due to insider selling, according to recent market reports. |
|
TSM
CC
Safest
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$1.9T
· Earnings Apr 16
· Div 92.0%
|
| $425C |
45 DTE |
+17.2% ann. |
+12.9% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| TSM's stock is expected to move significantly after earnings, with options pricing in a 19.6% annual return for a 31-day CSP opportunity. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $700 · QQQ $637 · VIX 18.1 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$695P |
63d |
1 |
$14.54 |
$1,454 |
8.4% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$715P |
63d |
1 |
$22.88 |
$2,288 |
13.3% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$685P |
63d |
2 |
$11.79 |
$2,358 |
13.7% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $715P 63d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$665 |
118% |
$98,468 |
| Correction -10% |
$630 |
100% |
$97,717 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$595 |
94% |
$96,967 |
| Crash -20% |
$560 |
91% |
$96,217 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$640P |
63d |
1 |
$20.52 |
$2,052 |
11.9% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$650P |
63d |
1 |
$25.12 |
$2,512 |
14.6% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$630P |
63d |
2 |
$16.66 |
$3,332 |
19.3% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $650P 63d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$606 |
105% |
$97,685 |
| Correction -10% |
$574 |
90% |
$96,622 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$542 |
85% |
$95,559 |
| Crash -20% |
$510 |
82% |
$94,496 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 16:26 ET
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 15 (MTD) · Hit rate: 31/40 · Avg return: +9.4% · YTD: +9.9%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+59.5% |
Ann. |
86.3% |
Sharpe |
2.80 |
Max DD |
-9.7% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+76.9% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$159,467 |
| Full backtest · 2017-01–2026-03 · 111 months |
| Total |
2,050% |
Ann. |
39.3% |
Sharpe |
1.64 |
Max DD |
-15.6% |
| Win% |
70% |
Alpha |
+28.7% |
SPY |
154% |
$100K → |
$2,149,942 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
14.4% |
-0.0% |
| XOM |
14.0% |
-7.3% |
| JNJ |
13.4% |
-2.7% |
| CNL |
7.7% |
+4.7% |
| AUGO |
6.2% |
+19.0% |
| FDX |
5.1% |
+1.6% |
| TPR |
3.6% |
+4.9% |
| EMEQ |
3.5% |
+13.1% |
| GEV |
2.8% |
+10.2% |
| NDSN |
2.5% |
+2.9% |
| BTSG |
2.2% |
+8.7% |
| MU |
1.9% |
+23.2% |
| EOG |
1.8% |
-5.7% |
| DNTH |
1.7% |
+13.2% |
| AAOI |
1.7% |
+64.3% |
| PCAR |
1.2% |
+4.6% |
| LQDA |
1.2% |
+7.1% |
| TBN |
1.2% |
-20.1% |
| AAMI |
1.0% |
+18.7% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+4.1% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-5.2% |
| COST |
0.9% |
-1.3% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
+0.6% |
| TERN |
0.8% |
-0.1% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+17.1% |
| AGX |
0.6% |
+6.1% |
| MUX |
0.6% |
+15.4% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+13.1% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+4.1% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
+3.1% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+17.6% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+12.9% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+26.0% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-0.9% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+11.2% |
| META |
0.5% |
+15.8% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+4.2% |
| MKOR |
0.5% |
+14.5% |
| ANAB |
0.4% |
+18.2% |
| SYRE |
0.4% |
+39.3% |
|
|
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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