United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR) presents an intriguing opportunity at $570.27, with a bullish probability of 60% and a sector-beating 1Y return of 92.4%, despite a current price drop. The recent positive IPF Phase 3 Tyvaso data, which met key endpoints, has driven a 12.5% stock price increase, but elevated options volatility (IV/RV 2.36x) and thin liquidity make options unattractive. The market is now pricing the risk that the company's revenue growth (7%) and margin (42%) may not sustain the current valuation multiple (Fwd P/E: 16.8) relative to its $624 target.
Composite
73
/ 100
1M
+18.9%
3M
+19.5%
6M
+41.5%
1Y
+92.4%
Trend
FLAT
Sharpe
0.40
Fundamentals
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Market Cap
$25B
Fwd P/E
16.8
Trail P/E
20.5
Beta
0.86
Short Interest
8.6%
Analyst Target
$624
Margin
42%
Rev Growth
7%
EPS Growth
24%
ROE
20%
D/E
1%
From 52w High
-6.2%
From 52w Low
+113.6%
Consensus
Buy
Research Digest
United Therapeutics (UTHR) surged 11.5-12.5% after its Phase 3 TETON-1 trial of nebulized Tyvaso for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis met its primary endpoint, showing a statistically significant improvement in lung function. The positive data triggered price target hikes from BofA and Wells Fargo. However, the market may be overreacting, and the FDA filing process poses a risk to the stock's momentum.
Options are NOT attractive. IV/RV 2.4x — options severely overpriced; Thin chain — wide spreads, poor fills; Only 5% forward probability of a 15% move.