Starbucks (SBUX) presents an intriguing setup, with a bullish probability of 50% and an expected move of 9.9%, juxtaposed with severely overpriced options, as evidenced by the IV/RV ratio of 2.36x. The stock's recent price action, marked by a 1-month return of +8.2% and a forward P/E of 34.2, suggests a tug-of-war between growth expectations and rich valuations. As earnings approach on April 28, the key risk is whether the company can meet growth expectations, currently priced at a 5% forward probability of a 15% move, to justify the current $99.52 price and $101 target.
Composite
38
/ 100
1M
+8.2%
3M
+3.9%
6M
+15.9%
1Y
+21.7%
Trend
UP
Sharpe
0.05
Fundamentals
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Restaurants
Market Cap
$113B
Fwd P/E
34.2
Trail P/E
82.9
Beta
0.94
Dividend
2.5%
Short Interest
4.2%
Analyst Target
$101
Margin
4%
Rev Growth
6%
EPS Growth
-62%
From 52w High
-5.1%
From 52w Low
+31.8%
Consensus
Buy
Research Digest
Starbucks (SBUX) has a renewed partnership with Nestlé to manufacture and distribute Starbucks-branded K Cup pods in North America, expanding their global licensing agreement. The deal focuses on wider distribution in the at-home coffee market. SBUX reports earnings on April 28, with analyst target at $106, but risks include a potentially misplaced market excitement about its recovery.