MOS · Deep Dive

LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.
2026-05-07 07:15 ET · Analysis took 45.4s
$904.00 -4.3% Bullish
LITE's 13.7% 1Y return and 87.2% 3M surge have stalled with a -4.3% gap, presenting a potential buying opportunity at $904.00, especially with a bullish probability of 62% and a Street target of $1081, implying 20% upside. However, expensive options with an IV/RV ratio of 12.25x and an expected move of 23.3% suggest market participants are pricing in significant uncertainty. The key risk is whether LITE's 90% revenue growth and 18% margin can justify its 50.1 Fwd P/E and justify the current valuation.
Composite
72
/ 100
1M
+5.4%
3M
+87.2%
6M
+401.3%
1Y
+13.7%
Trend
DOWN
Sharpe
0.74

Fundamentals
Sector
Technology
Industry
Communication Equipment
Market Cap
$70B
Fwd P/E
50.1
Trail P/E
159.6
Beta
1.53
Short Interest
13.9%
Analyst Target
$1081
Margin
18%
Rev Growth
90%
ROE
23%
D/E
111%
From 52w High
-11.4%
From 52w Low
+1314.0%
Consensus
Buy

Research Digest
Lumentum (LITE) was initiated with a Buy rating by Rothschild Redburn, with a price target of $1,270, citing potential upside. The stock fell after Q3 earnings, missing revenue expectations, but analyst targets remain high at $919. Market enthusiasm may be mispricing earnings volatility.
Headlines
Inside Rothschild Redburn Gives Lumentum (LITE) a Buy Rating
Barron Lumentum Earnings Paused the Stock’s Rally. Why Wall Street Isn’t Worried.
Barron First Lumentum, Now Coherent. Why Earnings Aren’t Boosting the AI Laser Stock.
Simply How The Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Narrative Is Shifting With Nvidia Deal And AI Demand
Motley Lumentum (LITE) Q3 2026 Earnings Transcript

Signals
Bullish Probability
62%
Expected Move (45d)
23.3%
Insider Activity
Score 59.0

Options Intelligence
Options are NOT attractive. IV/RV 12.2x — options severely overpriced; Only 5% forward probability of a 15% move.
IV / RV Ratio
12.25x
VERY EXPENSIVE (IV >> RV)
Implied Vol
92.0%
Fwd Prob (±15%)
5%
Option Score
69
/ 100
Open Interest
951
Volume
12
Bid-Ask Spread
9.5%
Liquidity
Moderate

Cash Secured Puts
StrikeDTEPremiumAnn. ReturnOTM %Delta
$800.0 15d $26.50 80.6% 11.6% 0.24
$800.0 42d $60.80 66.0% 11.6% 0.30
$760.0 42d $46.90 53.6% 16.0% 0.24
$800.0 22d $35.70 74.0% 11.6% 0.27
$770.0 42d $50.20 56.7% 14.9% 0.26

Covered Calls
StrikeDTEPremiumAnn. ReturnOTM %Delta
$1000.0 42d $80.90 77.7% 10.5% 0.09
$970.0 22d $55.15 101.1% 7.2% 0.09
$990.0 36d $73.70 82.6% 9.4% 0.09
$980.0 29d $65.40 91.0% 8.3% 0.09
$1010.0 42d $76.50 73.5% 11.6% 0.07

Call Leverage
StrikeDTECostPrem %BE Move+15% ROIDeltaIVScore
$890.0 41d $121.80 13.5% 11.8% 24% 0.57 92% 69
$830.0 35d $144.60 16.0% 7.7% 46% 0.66 93% 36
$835.0 35d $141.20 15.6% 7.9% 46% 0.65 93% 36
$840.0 35d $138.80 15.3% 8.2% 45% 0.65 94% 35
$845.0 35d $135.95 15.0% 8.4% 44% 0.64 93% 35
MOS · Deep Dive · 2026-05-07 07:15 ET
Generated in 45.4s · mosbrief.com