APLD's 139% revenue growth and $50 target price belie its extremely expensive options market, with an IV/RV ratio of 15.35x and thin liquidity, making options unattractive. The stock's current dislocation is driven by a bullish probability of 50% and an expected move of 27.6%, but its negative margin (-59%) and high short interest (30.6%) create tension. The key risk is whether APLD's growth can sustain its valuation, or if elevated customer concentration will lead to a contraction, which the market is currently pricing in.
Fundamentals
Sector
Technology
Industry
Information Technology Services
Market Cap
$9B
Fwd P/E
-58.7
Beta
7.27
Short Interest
30.6%
Analyst Target
$50
Margin
-59%
Rev Growth
139%
ROE
-6%
D/E
110%
From 52w High
-25.1%
From 52w Low
+856.2%
Consensus
Strong Buy
Research Digest
Applied Digital (APLD) shares jumped 14.3% after Bloom Energy's deal with Oracle sparked a rally in AI infrastructure plays, despite APLD's Q1 results beating expectations but receiving a negative market response. APLD's management cited its early investment in high-power, AI-focused data centers as a growth driver, with lease revenue from its 100-megawatt facility. However, APLD's elevated customer concentration poses a risk to growth.
Options are NOT attractive. IV/RV 15.4x — options severely overpriced; Thin chain — wide spreads, poor fills; Only 5% forward probability of a 15% move.