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Markets · Options · Signal
April 14, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 09:39 ET
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S&P 500
689.31
+0.47%
|
Nasdaq
622.31
+0.80%
|
Dow
483.57
+0.30%
|
Russell 2k
267.27
+0.83%
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VIX
18.25
-4.55%
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20Y Bond
86.71
-0.05%
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Gold
440.71
+1.23%
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Silver
70.87
+3.79%
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Oil
126.62
-1.44%
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USD
27.29
-0.33%
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CNN Fear & Greed
43
Fear
wk +15 · mo +22
|
AAII Survey 2026-04-08
▲ 35.7%
/
▼ 43.0%
/
21.3%
spread -7.3 · avg bull 35.0%
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 672.86 |
Res: 689.70 |
RSI: 65.6 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 599.89 |
Res: 626.74 |
RSI: 65.7 |
|
Econ Calendar |
6 high-impact · Tue Apr 14 – Thu Apr 16 · as of 09:39 ET |
| Tue Apr 14 |
| 08:30 |
US |
PPI (MoM) (Mar) — est. 1.1%, prev. 0.5% |
| Wed Apr 15 |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — prev. 3.081M |
| Thu Apr 16 |
| 02:00 |
GB |
GDP (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.1%, prev. 0.0% |
| 05:00 |
EU |
CPI (YoY) (Mar) — est. 2.5%, prev. 2.5% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 215K, prev. 219K |
| 08:30 |
US |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) — est. 10.5, prev. 18.1 |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.30% |
+0bps |
| Spread |
+49bps |
Normal |
| DXY |
98.08 |
-0.29% |
| VIX/3M |
0.85 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.89% |
+0.06% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.3012
$132.49 · $439.90
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z +1.02 · Neutral · ρ 84%
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| BTC |
$74,999 |
+0.7% |
| ETH |
$2,395 |
+1.0% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0319 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
09:43 ET |
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Cons. Discr.
+1.43%
XLY
|
Technology
+0.80%
XLK
|
Communication
+0.76%
XLC
|
|
Health Care
+0.36%
XLV
|
Financials
+0.14%
XLF
|
Industrials
+0.13%
XLI
|
|
Real Estate
+0.00%
XLRE
|
Materials
-0.17%
XLB
|
Cons. Staples
-0.63%
XLP
|
|
Utilities
-0.70%
XLU
|
Energy
-1.89%
XLE
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In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a risk-on rotation into cyclical leaders like Consumer Discretionary and Technology, while defensives like Utilities lag.
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Regime Timeline
HMM V6 · 4-state model · 42 features
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 3 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a Recovery regime for 3 days, with the S&P 500 up 0.47% and Nasdaq up 0.80% from the previous close, as sector rotation favors growth over value. Worth watching is the divergence between dovish comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who now says it's OK for the Fed to wait to lower rates, and the ECB's push for a banking union amid severe economic scenario warnings from the IMF.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:42 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
|
ANY
mixed
53
“The physical oil market is screaming there is a supply shock yet equities still …”
WSB 824 pts · 5/5 subs
|
SPY
mixed
33
“Full ported $673 SPY poots”
WSB 278 pts · 4/5 subs
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|
R
mixed
20
“Daily Discussion Thread for April 14th, 2026”
WSB 108 pts · 5/5 subs
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AI
mixed
14
“MNDY $1.9mm YOLO (with another $1mm notional puts sold), currently down $737k”
WSB 62 pts · 5/5 subs
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PR
mixed
12
“The physical oil market is screaming there is a supply shock yet equities still …”
WSB 824 pts · 4/5 subs
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LAB
bullish
10
“$RKLB CEO Peter Beck reduces his salary to 1$ and cancels all his stock plans, t…”
WSB 1383 pts
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WISH
bullish
10
“The Grande Dame of wsb”
WSB 2210 pts · 4/5 subs
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E
mixed
6
“J.P.Morgan, Morgan Stanley urge buying the dip as US earnings stay resilient”
STK 530 pts · 5/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1293 Form 4s filed · 09:39 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-09 to 2026-04-14
Director George Gregory is aggressively buying MESO, while Roku's President and a Hershey trustee sell; otherwise, insider buying activity picks up in Financials with Goldman Sachs insiders.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| BUY |
MESO |
George Gregory Director |
$26.1M |
| SELL |
ROKU |
Collier Charles President, Roku Media |
$21.6M |
| BUY |
MESO |
George Gregory Director |
$11.4M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$4.1M |
| BUY |
SG |
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Insider |
$3.4M |
| BUY |
SG |
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Insider |
$3.4M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 09:43 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
|
| DNTH |
19.5% |
7.1d |
+13.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.3% |
11.1d |
-4.3% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
15.3% |
3.4d |
-28.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| CVNA |
14.6% |
5.3d |
+16.9% |
MODERATE
|
| AAOI |
13.7% |
1.0d |
-3.0% |
LOW
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 09:39 ET |
ECB seeks to break insurance ‘deadlock’ in push for banking union
FT 4h ago
The ECB's efforts to address insurance-related issues could lead to increased market confidence in European financial stability, potentially strengthening the EUR and tightening European bank bond spreads. Keep an eye on the EU summit outcomes and ECB policy announcements for further guidance. A successful push for a banking union could have positive effects on EUR and European bank stocks.
| BBG |
Stocks Rise, Oil Prices Slide on Peace Push Hopes: Markets Wrap
Rising hopes for peace talks are driving risk-on sentiment, with stocks rising and oil prices sliding. Monitor developments in peace negotiations and commodity price movements, as a failure in peace talks could lead to increased geopolitical risk and a surge in oil prices. For now, the primary chain of events suggests a continued risk-on tone.
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15h ago |
| FJ |
IMF Managing Director Georgieva: Severe scenario will put some economies into outright recessions with global inflation above 6% and inflation expectations hard to contain
The IMF's warning of a severe economic scenario, including potential recessions and high inflation, could lead to increased risk aversion and defensive positioning. Watch global economic data releases and IMF and World Bank meetings for further guidance on the likelihood and severity of economic downturns. A severe scenario could have significant effects on equity markets and safe-haven assets.
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38m ago |
| FJ |
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: The IMF and World Bank leaders have gotten the US's message, and are moving forward in a positive way.
Positive communication between the US and international institutions, such as the IMF and World Bank, could lead to increased cooperation expectations and confidence in US assets. Keep an eye on upcoming IMF and World Bank meetings and US economic data releases for further guidance. This development could have positive effects on US assets and the dollar.
|
9m ago |
| CNBC |
Treasury Secretary Bessent now says it's OK for the Fed to wait to lower rates amid oil surge
The US Treasury Secretary's comments supporting the Fed's wait-and-see approach amid high inflation could lead to less aggressive Fed expectations and a positive reception for US assets. Monitor Fed meetings and US economic data releases for further guidance on the Fed's reaction function. A less aggressive Fed could have implications for US economic growth and financial markets.
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44m ago |
| FJ |
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: The IMF and the World Bank should get back to basics.
The US Treasury Secretary's call for the IMF and World Bank to refocus on basics could lead to increased scrutiny and reform expectations, potentially reappraising global economic governance. Watch IMF and World Bank meetings and global economic data releases for further guidance on potential changes in these institutions. A reappraisal of global economic governance could have delayed effects on global economic growth and trade.
|
10m ago |
| FJ |
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: The World Bank has made good pivot on energy.
|
19m ago |
| FT |
Young trader who made $250mn on Russian crude sets sights on Guyana
|
9h ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 09:39 ET |
| FJ |
IMF Warns of Energy Shock
Central banks must be vigilant on wage-price spiral
|
19m ago |
| FJ |
Fed's Goolsbee Speaks
Market awaits Fed's comments on monetary policy
|
1m ago |
| FJ |
Global Imbalances Buildup
US Treasury Secretary warns of risks from China's $1 trln surpluses
|
26m ago |
| FJ |
Oil Prices May Rise
IEA warns of potential oil price increase amid supply disruptions
|
27m ago |
| FJ |
Middle East War Risks
IMF warns of adverse scenario amid conflict and energy price shocks
|
24m ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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AVGO
$378.00
-0.4%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 63 |
1M +17.9% |
3M +7.8% |
1Y +120.4% |
UP |
| Technology |
$1.8T |
P/E 21.1 |
β 1.25 |
SI 1.1% |
Target $473 |
Rev 30% |
Broadcom (AVGO) gained attention after announcing a long-term agreement with Google, fueling growth prospects in AI. Goldman Sachs and Mizuho reiterated their Buy ratings, with price targets at $480. The stock's composite score is 63/100, with a 1-year return of 120.4% and forward P/E of 21.1.
|
|
WDC
$346.09
-2.1%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 74 |
1M +28.6% |
3M +65.1% |
1Y +9.0% |
FLAT |
| Technology |
$118B |
P/E 25.4 |
β 1.83 |
SI 9.2% |
Target $336 |
Rev 25% |
Western Digital's (WDC) stock price has gained 13% this week, with Citi raising its price target, citing AI-driven storage demand. WDC's forward P/E is 25.4, with a market capitalization of $118B and revenue growth of 25%. Risks include high beta (1.83) and short interest (9.2%), potentially mispricing the stock's upside.
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ORCL
$167.25
+5.3%
|
Bullish
|
| Technology |
$481B |
P/E 21.0 |
β 1.60 |
SI 1.6% |
Target $246 |
Rev 22% |
Oracle (ORCL) agreed to purchase up to 2.8 gigawatts of fuel-cell power from Bloom Energy to supply data centers for artificial intelligence work, with an initial 1.2 gigawatts contracted for use this year and in 2027. This expanded deal drove Bloom Energy's stock surge. ORCL's revenue growth is 22% and its forward P/E is 21.0.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
Earnings This Week |
Apr 14 – Apr 28 · 09:43 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| JNJ <0d |
Apr 14 ☀ |
N/A |
| Investors will closely watch Stelara sales performance in JNJ's upcoming Q1 earnings on Apr 14, as recent reports indicated the drug's sales disappointed despite a quarterly profit beat. |
| JPM <0d |
Apr 14 ☀ |
N/A |
| JPMorgan Chase's upcoming Q1 earnings on April 14 are expected to move the stock, with investors likely focusing on the bank's performance in navigating "increasingly complex" economic risks. |
| GEV |
Apr 22 |
N/A |
| Investors should watch GE Vernova's (GEV) upcoming earnings on Apr 22, as Goldman Sachs' recent price target lift may set a high bar for the company's financial performance. |
| TSLA |
Apr 22 ☽ |
N/A |
| Tesla's upcoming earnings on April 22 will be closely watched for updates on Full Self-Driving (FSD) adoption and regulatory progress, following Dutch approval. |
| AMZN |
Apr 23 ☽ |
N/A |
| Amazon's acquisition of satellite operator Globalstar for $90 a share may be a key area of focus during its upcoming earnings on April 23. |
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 14 |
MYXXU
Maywood Acquisition Corp. 2
|
— |
$115M |
| Apr 15 |
EMI
Encore Medical, Inc.
|
— |
$17M |
| Apr 16 |
ARXS
Arxis, Inc.
|
— |
$1.2B |
| Apr 16 |
MAIR
Madison Air Solutions Corp
|
— |
$2.6B |
| Apr 17 |
AVEX
AEVEX Corp.
|
— |
$372M |
| Apr 17 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| Apr 24 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 09:43 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
1,695,566 |
726,760 |
968,806 |
1.33
|
$685C 87,887 vol |
| SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C ratio of 1.33 suggests bearish or protective hedging ahead of potential market volatility. |
| QQQ |
931,264 |
426,203 |
505,061 |
1.19
|
$613C 61,569 vol |
| QQQ: Moderate call buying, especially at $613C, indicates bullish positioning or speculative bets on tech stocks. |
| TSLA |
409,749 |
231,519 |
178,230 |
0.77
|
$355C 36,236 vol |
| TSLA: Call-heavy flow, P/C ratio of 0.77, and $355C buying imply bullish bets on Tesla's recovery. |
| NVDA |
280,031 |
158,784 |
121,247 |
0.76
|
$190C 63,756 vol |
| NVDA: Call buying, particularly at $190C, suggests bullish positioning or expectations for NVIDIA's growth. |
| AMD |
173,745 |
88,409 |
85,336 |
0.97
|
$250C 15,275 vol |
| AMD: Mixed flow, nearly neutral P/C ratio of 0.97, with $250C buying indicating some bullish interest. |
|
|
PL
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$11B
· Earnings Mar 19
|
| $29P |
31 DTE |
+42.6% ann. |
+19.8% OTM |
Δ 0.23 |
POP 77% |
|
| Planet Labs PBC $PL sees a CSP opportunity with 29.0 strike price and 31 days to expiration, offering 42.6% annual return. |
|
AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$3B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $60P |
31 DTE |
+211.9% ann. |
+10.5% OTM |
Δ 0.32 |
POP 68% |
|
| AXTI stock surged 23% today, according to Quiver Quantitative, and reached an all-time high as Q1 ended, as reported by Yahoo Finance. |
|
MRVL
CSP
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$117B
· Earnings Mar 05
· Div 0.2%
|
| $109P |
38 DTE |
+11.5% ann. |
+19.8% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
|
| Marvell Technology's stock is hitting record highs, with Amazon cited as a contributing factor, according to a report by Barron's. |
|
MU
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$484B
· Earnings Mar 18
· Div 0.1%
|
| $470C |
31 DTE |
+57.1% ann. |
+9.1% OTM |
Δ 0.08 |
POP 92% |
|
| Analysts are predicting a potential 40% gain for Micron stock, according to a recent note from Barron's citing a specific catalyst. |
|
AAOI
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$11B
· Earnings Feb 26
|
| $160C |
24 DTE |
+217.2% ann. |
+7.8% OTM |
Δ 0.08 |
POP 92% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is experiencing a retail frenzy and its stock is on a ninth straight gain amid a data center boom. |
|
TSM
CC
Safest
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
· Earnings Jan 15
· Div 0.8%
|
| $425C |
45 DTE |
+17.2% ann. |
+12.9% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| TSM is set to report its quarterly results, one of three major reports to watch this week, alongside NFLX and PEP. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $690 · QQQ $622 · VIX 18.2 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 18.2 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$685P |
64d |
1 |
$14.62 |
$1,462 |
8.3% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$705P |
64d |
1 |
$22.87 |
$2,287 |
13.0% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$675P |
64d |
2 |
$11.89 |
$2,378 |
13.6% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $705P 64d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$655 |
117% |
$98,450 |
| Correction -10% |
$621 |
99% |
$97,648 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$586 |
93% |
$96,846 |
| Crash -20% |
$552 |
90% |
$96,044 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$555P |
64d |
1 |
$163.03 |
$16,303 |
93.0% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$635P |
64d |
1 |
$23.89 |
$2,389 |
13.6% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$555P |
64d |
2 |
$163.03 |
$32,606 |
186.0% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $635P 64d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$591 |
103% |
$97,757 |
| Correction -10% |
$560 |
88% |
$96,618 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$529 |
83% |
$95,479 |
| Crash -20% |
$498 |
81% |
$94,339 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 09:43 ET
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 14 (MTD) · Hit rate: 30/40 · Avg return: +8.2% · YTD: +9.2%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+58.7% |
Ann. |
85.1% |
Sharpe |
2.78 |
Max DD |
-9.8% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+75.7% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$158,691 |
| Full backtest · 2017-01–2026-03 · 111 months |
| Total |
2,122% |
Ann. |
39.8% |
Sharpe |
1.66 |
Max DD |
-15.6% |
| Win% |
69% |
Alpha |
+29.2% |
SPY |
154% |
$100K → |
$2,221,633 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
14.4% |
-1.6% |
| XOM |
14.0% |
-8.7% |
| JNJ |
13.4% |
-2.8% |
| CNL |
7.7% |
+4.1% |
| AUGO |
6.1% |
+24.1% |
| FDX |
5.1% |
+2.2% |
| TPR |
3.6% |
+5.8% |
| EMEQ |
3.5% |
+11.2% |
| GEV |
2.8% |
+10.3% |
| NDSN |
2.5% |
+3.6% |
| BTSG |
2.3% |
+10.8% |
| MU |
1.9% |
+16.6% |
| EOG |
1.8% |
-5.3% |
| DNTH |
1.7% |
+8.6% |
| AAOI |
1.7% |
+71.4% |
| PCAR |
1.2% |
+7.7% |
| LQDA |
1.2% |
+7.2% |
| TBN |
1.2% |
-19.6% |
| AAMI |
1.0% |
+13.8% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+2.6% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-2.1% |
| COST |
0.9% |
-2.7% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
+0.7% |
| TERN |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+16.6% |
| AGX |
0.6% |
+4.8% |
| MUX |
0.6% |
+14.5% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+9.1% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+2.0% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-6.2% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+17.1% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+8.9% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+20.6% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-0.0% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+6.7% |
| META |
0.5% |
+11.6% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+6.1% |
| MKOR |
0.5% |
+11.7% |
| ANAB |
0.4% |
+17.8% |
| SYRE |
0.4% |
+30.7% |
|
|
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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