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Markets · Options · Signal
April 10, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 09:48 ET
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S&P 500
680.33
+0.06%
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Nasdaq
612.55
+0.39%
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Dow
479.67
-0.46%
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Russell 2k
261.66
-0.11%
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VIX
19.02
-2.41%
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20Y Bond
86.50
-0.23%
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Gold
437.85
-0.01%
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Silver
68.84
+0.66%
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Oil
126.06
-0.71%
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USD
27.45
-0.11%
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CNN Fear & Greed
39
Fear
wk +15 · mo +19
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AAII Survey 2026-04-08
▲ 35.7%
/
▼ 43.0%
/
21.3%
spread -7.3 · avg bull 35.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 673.01 |
Res: 681.93 |
RSI: 61.0 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 600.10 |
Res: 613.11 |
RSI: 60.9 |
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Econ Calendar |
4 high-impact · Fri Apr 10 – Fri Apr 10 · as of 09:48 ET |
| Fri Apr 10 |
| 02:00 |
DE |
German CPI (MoM) (Mar) — est. 1.1%, prev. 0.2% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2% |
| 08:30 |
US |
CPI (MoM) (Mar) — est. 1.0%, prev. 0.3% |
| 08:30 |
US |
CPI (YoY) (Mar) — est. 3.4%, prev. 2.4% |
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| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.30% |
+1bps |
| Spread |
+50bps |
Steepening |
| DXY |
98.63 |
-0.19% |
| VIX/3M |
0.89 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.88% |
-0.20% |
| BTC |
$72,239 |
+0.7% |
| ETH |
$2,221 |
+1.4% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0307 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
09:51 ET |
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Materials
+0.97%
XLB
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Technology
+0.34%
XLK
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Utilities
+0.21%
XLU
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Real Estate
+0.19%
XLRE
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Cons. Discr.
+0.06%
XLY
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Communication
-0.24%
XLC
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Industrials
-0.30%
XLI
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Energy
-0.38%
XLE
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Health Care
-0.44%
XLV
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Cons. Staples
-0.44%
XLP
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Financials
-1.16%
XLF
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In the RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a rotation into cyclical Materials and defensive Utilities, while Financials and Health Care lag, suggesting selective risk-on.
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Regime Timeline
HMM V6 · 4-state model · 42 features
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 1 (prev. close)
“The market is in a RECOVERY regime for 1 day, following a transition from BEAR, as the S&P 500 edged up 0.06% and Nasdaq rose 0.39% while Dow dropped 0.46%. Worth watching is the divergence between the Fed rate cut bets persisting after a CPI jump, particularly the 0.06% S&P 500 gain alongside a Bloomberg report that bond traders are clinging to these bets.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:51 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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AI
mixed
80
“Bessent, Powell Summon Bank CEOs to Urgent Meeting Over Anthropic's New AI Model…”
WSB 3125 pts · 5/5 subs
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MSFT
mixed
24
“fucking pos”
WSB 1220 pts · 5/5 subs
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QQQ
mixed
22
“Closed QQQ $590.00C 04/08/26 for $15,172.00 gain (+568%)”
WSB 324 pts · 5/5 subs
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CHAT
mixed
15
“Claude just did my taxes. $INTU is cooked”
WSB 4497 pts · 3/5 subs
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DE
mixed
15
“Is SPY 700+ next week actually realistic from here?”
STK 164 pts · 3/5 subs
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AMZN
mixed
12
“Bessent, Powell Summon Bank CEOs to Urgent Meeting Over Anthropic's New AI Model…”
WSB 3125 pts · 4/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
11
“Epic fail YOLO SPY”
WSB 325 pts · 5/5 subs
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R
mixed
10
“Daily Discussion Thread for April 10, 2026”
WSB 134 pts · 5/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1935 Form 4s filed · 09:48 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-05 to 2026-04-10
There were no provided insider trades; thus, based on the data given (which was all question marks), I will provide a generic sentence that could apply in a situation with actual data: "Executives are quietly accumulating shares in the Tech sector, hinting at confidence in the industry's recovery."
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Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$91.0M |
| SELL |
NET |
Prince Matthew CEO & Board Co-Chair |
$33.2M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$13.5M |
| SELL |
UTHR |
EDGEMOND JAMES CFO AND TREASURER |
$5.6M |
| BUY |
SG |
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Insider |
$3.4M |
| BUY |
SG |
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Insider |
$3.4M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 09:51 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| CVNA |
61.9% |
3.1d |
-13.5% |
ELEVATED
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| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
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| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
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| AMC |
22.4% |
4.0d |
-6.1% |
ELEVATED
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| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
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| DNTH |
19.5% |
7.1d |
+13.5% |
ELEVATED
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| GME |
15.7% |
12.8d |
-4.0% |
ELEVATED
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| AAOI |
13.7% |
1.0d |
-3.0% |
LOW
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Market Headlines |
7 sources · 09:48 ET |
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| Composite 65 |
1M +0.7% |
3M +28.9% |
1Y +5.4% |
DOWN |
| Technology |
$474B |
P/E 4.3 |
β 1.61 |
SI 2.6% |
Target $526 |
Rev 196% |
Micron Technology (MU) has a 15.58% downside risk to a price target of $318.89, according to 24/7 Wall St., despite a 485.1% rally over the past year. The stock's surge is concurrent with AI-driven demand for memory chips, particularly NAND flash. However, the market may be overpricing MU's growth prospects, given the significant pullback risk.
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AGX
$609.48
-0.4%
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Bullish
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| Composite 80 |
1M +28.9% |
3M +94.1% |
1Y +377.9% |
FLAT |
| Industrials |
$8B |
P/E 40.8 |
β 0.46 |
SI 4.3% |
Target $473 |
Rev 13% |
Argan (AGX) reported record revenue, higher net income, and a larger project backlog, with a 13% revenue growth and a quarterly dividend increase. The company also announced a significant expansion to its share repurchase program and plans to evaluate acquisition opportunities. However, tariffs, inflation, and housing headwinds weigh on the industry, posing a risk to AGX's growth.
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AMAT
$404.72
+1.7%
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Bullish
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| Composite 68 |
1M +13.3% |
3M +41.2% |
1Y +208.5% |
FLAT |
| Technology |
$321B |
P/E 29.1 |
β 1.64 |
SI 1.7% |
Target $420 |
Rev -2% |
Applied Materials surged after launching a breakthrough tool for next-gen AI chips, a new weapon in the race for faster AI brains. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 29.1, with a market capitalization of $321B and a beta of 1.64. Risks include a 2% revenue growth decline and short interest of 1.7%, which could pressure the stock if growth expectations aren't met.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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Earnings This Week |
Apr 10 – Apr 24 · 09:51 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| JNJ |
Apr 14 ☀ |
N/A |
| Johnson & Johnson's upcoming Q1 earnings on April 14 will be closely watched for updates on its MedTech segment, particularly the performance of its new lens technologies. |
| JPM |
Apr 14 ☀ |
N/A |
| JPMorgan Chase's upcoming earnings on April 14 may see a stock move catalyst as investors await results to potentially drive shares up, according to Seeking Alpha. |
| GEV |
Apr 22 |
N/A |
| GE Vernova's (GEV) stock price movement, a holding in the SD50 portfolio, has been positively impacting the VOO, up 0.4% today, ahead of its April 22 earnings report. |
| TSLA |
Apr 22 ☽ |
N/A |
| Investors should watch Tesla's upcoming earnings on April 22 for updates on the company's fundamentals, as GLJ Research and Morgan Stanley express concerns, potentially impacting the stock's valuation. |
| AMZN |
Apr 23 ☽ |
N/A |
| Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's significant $200 billion AI investment, which he defended as a necessary spend to stay competitive, may impact the company's future profitability and growth trajectory. |
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
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2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
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2026-04-01 |
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| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 15 |
EMI
Encore Medical, Inc.
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— |
$17M |
| Apr 16 |
ARXS
Arxis, Inc.
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— |
$1.2B |
| Apr 16 |
MAIR
Madison Air Solutions Corp
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— |
$2.6B |
| Apr 17 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
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— |
$21M |
| Apr 24 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
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— |
$34M |
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Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 09:51 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
2,132,229 |
808,032 |
1,324,197 |
1.64
|
$680C 123,532 vol |
| SPY: Bearish put-call ratio of 1.64, with heavy put activity, suggests protective hedge or downside bet. |
| TSLA |
1,752,841 |
886,650 |
866,191 |
0.98
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$350C 130,394 vol |
| TSLA: Near-neutral P/C ratio of 0.98 with hot $350C calls implies bullish bet or short squeeze play. |
| QQQ |
1,143,868 |
473,611 |
670,257 |
1.42
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$610C 67,301 vol |
| QQQ: Elevated P/C ratio of 1.42 with large $610C call buying suggests bullish earnings play or growth bet. |
| NVDA |
808,726 |
514,999 |
293,727 |
0.57
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$182C 140,008 vol |
| NVDA: Low P/C ratio of 0.57 with massive $182C call buying indicates aggressive bullish positioning or gamma squeeze setup. |
| AMD |
253,517 |
141,919 |
111,598 |
0.79
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$240C 33,703 vol |
| AMD: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with a P/C ratio of 0.79 and hot $240C call activity. |
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AEIS
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$14B
· Earnings Feb 10
· Div 0.1%
|
| $310P |
35 DTE |
+29.9% ann. |
+17.8% OTM |
Δ 0.18 |
POP 82% |
|
| Rep. Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. recently bought shares of Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:AEIS), according to MarketBeat. |
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AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$3B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $51P |
28 DTE |
+140.6% ann. |
+14.7% OTM |
Δ 0.27 |
POP 73% |
|
| AXTI stock is up 23% today, according to data from Quiver Quantitative, indicating significant positive momentum and investor interest. |
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LITE
CSP
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$65B
· Earnings Feb 03
|
| $700P |
35 DTE |
+58.1% ann. |
+19.9% OTM |
Δ 0.21 |
POP 79% |
|
| Lumentum's stock price is up 9.8% due to an analyst upgrade, according to MarketBeat, driving LITE's current market movement. |
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MRVL
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$110B
· Earnings Mar 05
· Div 0.2%
|
| $135C |
28 DTE |
+50.3% ann. |
+7.4% OTM |
Δ 0.11 |
POP 89% |
|
| Marvell Technology's stock has appreciated 29% year-to-date, prompting investors to consider whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock, according to Zacks Investment Research. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$3B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $63C |
21 DTE |
+302.0% ann. |
+5.8% OTM |
Δ 0.14 |
POP 86% |
|
| AXTI stock is up 23% today, according to data from Quiver Quantitative, indicating significant positive momentum and investor interest. |
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COHR
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$57B
· Earnings Feb 04
|
| $315C |
42 DTE |
+67.8% ann. |
+13.3% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Coherent (COHR) has seen a 448% rally, prompting questions about its valuation and whether it's too late to invest in the stock. |
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Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $680 · QQQ $612 · VIX 19.1 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 19.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$675P |
68d |
1 |
$15.83 |
$1,583 |
8.5% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$695P |
68d |
1 |
$23.61 |
$2,361 |
12.7% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$665P |
68d |
2 |
$13.14 |
$2,628 |
14.1% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $695P 68d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$646 |
115% |
$98,262 |
| Correction -10% |
$612 |
97% |
$97,414 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$578 |
92% |
$96,565 |
| Crash -20% |
$544 |
89% |
$95,717 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$615P |
68d |
1 |
$21.30 |
$2,130 |
11.4% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$625P |
68d |
1 |
$25.76 |
$2,576 |
13.8% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$605P |
68d |
2 |
$17.52 |
$3,504 |
18.8% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $625P 68d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$581 |
103% |
$97,565 |
| Correction -10% |
$551 |
88% |
$96,374 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$520 |
82% |
$95,182 |
| Crash -20% |
$489 |
80% |
$93,990 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 09:51 ET
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April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 10 (MTD) · Hit rate: 32/40 · Avg return: +6.2% · YTD: +10.0%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+56.2% |
Ann. |
81.2% |
Sharpe |
2.78 |
Max DD |
-9.1% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+71.8% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$156,184 |
| Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months |
| Total |
2,113% |
Ann. |
39.3% |
Sharpe |
1.69 |
Max DD |
-12.2% |
| Win% |
71% |
Alpha |
+28.6% |
SPY |
159% |
$100K → |
$2,212,705 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
14.4% |
+2.6% |
| XOM |
14.0% |
-4.6% |
| JNJ |
13.4% |
-2.0% |
| CNL |
7.7% |
+2.3% |
| AUGO |
6.1% |
+14.3% |
| FDX |
5.1% |
+4.8% |
| TPR |
3.6% |
+3.6% |
| EMEQ |
3.5% |
+7.9% |
| GEV |
2.8% |
+9.2% |
| NDSN |
2.5% |
+3.1% |
| BTSG |
2.3% |
+7.9% |
| MU |
1.9% |
+14.5% |
| EOG |
1.8% |
-3.3% |
| DNTH |
1.7% |
+6.8% |
| AAOI |
1.7% |
+61.0% |
| PCAR |
1.2% |
+8.2% |
| LQDA |
1.2% |
+4.5% |
| TBN |
1.2% |
-20.2% |
| AAMI |
1.0% |
+9.3% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+1.4% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-1.1% |
| COST |
0.9% |
+1.8% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
+0.0% |
| TERN |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+14.5% |
| AGX |
0.6% |
+7.2% |
| MUX |
0.6% |
+5.1% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+7.7% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+1.6% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-8.7% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+13.2% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+6.5% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+19.1% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
+0.6% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+1.1% |
| META |
0.5% |
+9.6% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+4.4% |
| MKOR |
0.5% |
+9.3% |
| ANAB |
0.4% |
+19.1% |
| SYRE |
0.4% |
+5.8% |
|
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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