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Markets · Options · Signal
April 09, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 13:22 ET
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S&P 500
680.54
+0.67%
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Nasdaq
609.58
+0.58%
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Dow
482.79
+0.76%
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Russell 2k
262.76
+0.88%
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VIX
19.83
-5.75%
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20Y Bond
87.10
+0.21%
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Gold
440.09
+1.28%
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Silver
68.97
+2.23%
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Oil
124.07
-0.41%
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USD
27.45
-0.27%
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CNN Fear & Greed
36
Fear
wk +17 · mo +14
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AAII Survey 2026-04-08
▲ 35.7%
/
▼ 43.0%
/
21.3%
spread -7.3 · avg bull 35.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 673.28 |
Res: 681.02 |
RSI: 61.1 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 600.50 |
Res: 611.66 |
RSI: 60.0 |
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Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Thu Apr 09 – Fri Apr 10 · as of 13:22 ET |
| Thu Apr 09 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.4%, prev. 0.4% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) — est. 3.0%, prev. 3.1% |
| 08:30 |
US |
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) — est. 0.7%, prev. 4.4% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 210K, prev. 203K |
| 13:00 |
US |
30-Year Bond Auction — prev. 4.871% |
| Fri Apr 10 |
| 02:00 |
DE |
German CPI (MoM) (Mar) — est. 1.1%, prev. 0.2% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2% |
| 08:30 |
US |
CPI (MoM) (Mar) — est. 1.0%, prev. 0.3% |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.26% |
-3bps |
| Spread |
+46bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
98.67 |
-0.37% |
| VIX/3M |
0.91 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.88% |
-0.20% |
| BTC |
$72,347 |
+1.7% |
| ETH |
$2,216 |
+1.2% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0306 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
13:25 ET |
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Cons. Discr.
+1.70%
XLY
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Utilities
+1.64%
XLU
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Real Estate
+1.50%
XLRE
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Industrials
+1.47%
XLI
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Cons. Staples
+0.97%
XLP
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Financials
+0.51%
XLF
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Communication
+0.39%
XLC
|
Health Care
+0.21%
XLV
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Materials
+0.01%
XLB
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Technology
-0.11%
XLK
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Energy
-1.40%
XLE
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In today's RECOVERY regime, we're seeing a defensive tilt with Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, and Real Estate leading, while cyclicals like Materials and Energy lag.
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Regime Timeline
HMM V6 · 4-state model · 42 features
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From the Desk · RECOVERY Day 1 (prev. close)
“The market is in a RECOVERY regime for 1 day, following a transition from BEAR, with the S&P 500 up 0.67% and Russell 2k up 0.88% from the previous close. Worth watching is the divergence between surging oil prices and eroding profits for Exxon and Chevron, as mentioned in the headlines, alongside a 30-year Treasury auction that may test investor appetite.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“None of these people, including our own, very disappointing, NATO, understood anything unless they have pressure placed upon them!!!”
4h ago
$ITADefense Sector
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“NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!! President DJT”
17h ago
$ITADefense Sector
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“A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions! President DJT”
1d ago
$FXI$SPY$USO$XLE
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“The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
$EEM$FXI$SPY$USO
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“It is my Great Honor to endorse Dr. Brian Schmutzler, a MAGA Warrior and REAL Republican running for Indiana's 11th State Senate District, against RINO incumbent Linda Rogers! A Proven Leader, Brian serves his Community as a Highly Respected Anesthesiologist and Medical Director. In the State Senate, he will fight tirelessly to Protect "Hoosier" Values, Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Champion American Energy DOMINANCE, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, Advance Election Integrity, Promote School Choice, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment. Dr. Brian Schmutzler has my Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next State Senator from Indiana's 11th Senate District. Unlike incumbent Linda Rogers, a “RINO” LOSER who has failed the wonderful people of Indiana so badly, DR. BRIAN SCHMUTZLER IS A WINNER WHO WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
1d ago
$INDA$ITA$SPY$XLE
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 13:25 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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ANY
mixed
88
“Straight of Hormuz still closed”
WSB 6413 pts · 5/5 subs
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AI
mixed
35
“Claude just did my taxes. $INTU is cooked”
WSB 606 pts · 5/5 subs
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CHAT
mixed
21
“Claude just did my taxes. $INTU is cooked”
WSB 606 pts · 3/5 subs
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GAME
bullish
20
“This is not a bull market today, it’s all bull shit and people are going to slip…”
STK 1146 pts · 5/5 subs
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QQQ
mixed
18
“Straight of Hormuz still closed”
WSB 6413 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
mixed
15
“Meta commits to spending additional $21 billion with CoreWeave as AI costs keep …”
WSB 159 pts · 4/5 subs
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MSFT
mixed
15
“fucking pos”
WSB 1089 pts · 4/5 subs
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DE
mixed
14
“Just a reminder of the Trump playbook”
STK 2190 pts · 3/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1527 Form 4s filed · 13:22 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-04 to 2026-04-09
There are no insider trades provided to synthesize, please provide the data to generate a one-sentence summary of notable insider trades.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$91.0M |
| SELL |
NET |
Prince Matthew CEO & Board Co-Chair |
$33.2M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$13.5M |
| SELL |
UTHR |
EDGEMOND JAMES CFO AND TREASURER |
$5.6M |
| SELL |
FANG |
Meloy Charles Alvin Director |
$3.1M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$2.0M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 13:25 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| CVNA |
61.9% |
3.1d |
-13.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
22.4% |
4.0d |
-6.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
|
| DNTH |
19.5% |
7.1d |
+13.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.7% |
12.8d |
-4.0% |
ELEVATED
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| AAOI |
13.7% |
1.0d |
-3.0% |
LOW
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Market Headlines |
7 sources · 13:22 ET |
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AMAT
$395.86
+3.3%
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Bullish
|
| Composite 68 |
1M +11.5% |
3M +32.0% |
1Y +190.3% |
FLAT |
| Technology |
$314B |
P/E 28.4 |
β 1.64 |
SI 1.7% |
Target $420 |
Rev -2% |
Applied Materials surged after launching a breakthrough tool for next-gen AI chips, expanding its offerings in the rapidly growing market. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 28.4, with a market capitalization of $314B and a beta of 1.64. However, with revenue growth projected at -2%, the market may be overestimating the company's near-term prospects.
|
| Composite 55 |
1M -4.7% |
3M +35.9% |
1Y +7.5% |
DOWN |
| Industrials |
$44B |
P/E 53.6 |
β 3.19 |
SI 11.6% |
Target $144 |
Rev 36% |
Bloom Energy (BE) surged after CoreWeave's $21 billion deal with Meta Platforms, as investors bet on BE's ability to meet rising AI power demands. BE's stock has returned 48.7% YTD and 7.5% over the past year, with a forward P/E of 53.6 and a market capitalization of $44B. However, with a 1-year surge of 7x, the market may be overestimating BE's growth prospects.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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Earnings This Week |
Apr 09 – Apr 23 · 13:25 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| JNJ |
Apr 14 ☀ |
±1% |
| Investors will closely monitor Johnson & Johnson's Q1 earnings report on April 14, as the stock's recent re-rating and ±1% expected move suggest a potentially significant reaction. |
| JPM |
Apr 14 ☀ |
±1% |
| JPMorgan Chase's Q1 earnings on April 14 will be closely watched for signs of resilience in a volatile geopolitical backdrop, a key concern for investors. |
| GEV |
Apr 22 |
±2% |
| GE Vernova (GEV) is set to report Q4 earnings on April 22, with investors likely watching for key updates amid a ±2% expected stock move. |
| TSLA |
Apr 22 ☽ |
±2% |
| Investors should watch Tesla's upcoming earnings on April 22 for updates on the company's performance amidst a volatile market, as Jim Cramer notes a potentially overlooked factor. |
| AXTI |
Apr 23 |
±9% |
| AXT's stock price may experience significant volatility, with an expected move of ±9%, as investors await the company's earnings report on April 23. |
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
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2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 15 |
EMI
Encore Medical, Inc.
|
— |
$17M |
| Apr 16 |
MAIR
Madison Air Solutions Corp
|
— |
$2.6B |
| Apr 17 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| Apr 24 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 13:25 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
4,523,266 |
2,041,616 |
2,481,650 |
1.22
|
$676C 297,897 vol |
| SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C=1.22, suggests bearish or protective hedging ahead of potential market volatility. |
| QQQ |
2,337,999 |
1,206,923 |
1,131,076 |
0.94
|
$606C 165,665 vol |
| QQQ: Call-heavy flow with $606C leading, P/C=0.94, implies bullish positioning in tech. |
| TSLA |
1,220,010 |
636,700 |
583,310 |
0.92
|
$350C 87,034 vol |
| TSLA: Moderate call buying, $350C hot, P/C=0.92, signals cautiously bullish sentiment. |
| NVDA |
598,049 |
388,353 |
209,696 |
0.54
|
$182C 119,235 vol |
| NVDA: Aggressive call buying, $182C leading, P/C=0.54, indicates strong bullish conviction. |
| AMD |
187,671 |
106,961 |
80,710 |
0.75
|
$235C 26,553 vol |
| AMD: Call-heavy flow, $235C hot, P/C=0.75, suggests bullish expectations for stock performance. |
|
|
STX
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$112B
· Earnings Jan 27
· Div 0.6%
|
| $400P |
36 DTE |
+29.1% ann. |
+19.8% OTM |
Δ 0.17 |
POP 84% |
|
| Seagate's stock price surge has sparked debate on whether it's too late to invest, following a recent share price increase. |
|
AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$3B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $51P |
29 DTE |
+177.7% ann. |
+13.9% OTM |
Δ 0.30 |
POP 70% |
|
| AXTI stock is experiencing significant price movement, with one report noting a 23% increase and another a 17% increase. |
|
AEIS
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
|
$14B
· Earnings Feb 10
· Div 0.1%
|
| $300P |
36 DTE |
+24.7% ann. |
+20.0% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
|
| Rep. Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. sold shares of Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:AEIS), potentially indicating a change in his investment outlook. |
|
AAOI
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$10B
· Earnings Feb 26
|
| $130C |
23 DTE |
+165.0% ann. |
+7.7% OTM |
Δ 0.08 |
POP 92% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics received a $200m 1.6T order, contributing to its stock surge of 237% this year and 40% this month. |
|
CF
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$18B
· Earnings Feb 18
· Div 1.5%
|
| $117C |
23 DTE |
+268.2% ann. |
+4.9% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| The US-Iran ceasefire has eroded a key competitive edge for CF Industries, according to recent reports, following an 83% one-year stock surge. |
|
ADI
CC
Safest
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$172B
· Earnings Feb 18
· Div 1.3%
|
| $390C |
44 DTE |
+10.8% ann. |
+12.9% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Citi has put Analog Devices on a 30-day positive catalyst watch, indicating potential for a stock price increase in the near term. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $680 · QQQ $609 · VIX 19.8 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 19.8 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$675P |
69d |
1 |
$16.07 |
$1,607 |
8.5% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$695P |
69d |
1 |
$23.69 |
$2,369 |
12.5% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$665P |
69d |
2 |
$13.41 |
$2,682 |
14.2% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $695P 69d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$646 |
114% |
$98,236 |
| Correction -10% |
$612 |
97% |
$97,389 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$578 |
91% |
$96,541 |
| Crash -20% |
$544 |
89% |
$95,693 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$615P |
69d |
1 |
$22.41 |
$2,241 |
11.9% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$620P |
69d |
1 |
$24.60 |
$2,460 |
13.0% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$605P |
69d |
2 |
$18.52 |
$3,704 |
19.6% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $620P 69d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$579 |
97% |
$97,391 |
| Correction -10% |
$549 |
84% |
$96,189 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$518 |
80% |
$94,986 |
| Crash -20% |
$488 |
78% |
$93,783 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 13:25 ET
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|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 09 (MTD) · Hit rate: 34/40 · Avg return: +6.0% · YTD: +10.5%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+56.2% |
Ann. |
81.2% |
Sharpe |
2.78 |
Max DD |
-9.1% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+71.8% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$156,184 |
| Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months |
| Total |
2,102% |
Ann. |
39.3% |
Sharpe |
1.69 |
Max DD |
-12.2% |
| Win% |
71% |
Alpha |
+28.6% |
SPY |
159% |
$100K → |
$2,202,477 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
14.4% |
+3.8% |
| XOM |
14.0% |
-3.6% |
| JNJ |
13.4% |
-0.2% |
| CNL |
7.7% |
+2.1% |
| AUGO |
6.1% |
+13.9% |
| FDX |
5.1% |
+5.6% |
| TPR |
3.6% |
+6.9% |
| EMEQ |
3.5% |
+7.8% |
| GEV |
2.8% |
+9.2% |
| NDSN |
2.5% |
+4.5% |
| BTSG |
2.3% |
+10.7% |
| MU |
1.9% |
+11.0% |
| EOG |
1.8% |
-3.3% |
| DNTH |
1.7% |
+7.1% |
| AAOI |
1.7% |
+50.4% |
| PCAR |
1.2% |
+7.7% |
| LQDA |
1.2% |
+7.2% |
| TBN |
1.2% |
-22.1% |
| AAMI |
1.0% |
+7.7% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+3.6% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
+0.7% |
| COST |
0.9% |
+3.8% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
+0.5% |
| TERN |
0.8% |
-0.4% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+11.9% |
| AGX |
0.6% |
+7.7% |
| MUX |
0.6% |
+4.5% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+7.3% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+1.7% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-8.9% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+9.9% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+4.5% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+13.9% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
+1.9% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+0.8% |
| META |
0.5% |
+9.2% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+5.6% |
| MKOR |
0.5% |
+9.8% |
| ANAB |
0.4% |
+19.7% |
| SYRE |
0.4% |
+7.5% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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