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Markets · Options · Signal
April 08, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 09:41 ET
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S&P 500
674.90
+2.38%
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Nasdaq
606.23
+3.00%
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Dow
479.09
+2.84%
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Russell 2k
261.23
+3.29%
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VIX
20.13
-21.92%
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20Y Bond
87.18
+0.62%
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Gold
438.65
+1.58%
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Silver
69.27
+5.05%
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Oil
120.05
-13.06%
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USD
27.50
-0.92%
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CNN Fear & Greed
27
Fear
wk +13 · mo +2
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AAII Survey 2026-04-01
▲ 33.6%
/
▼ 51.4%
/
15.0%
spread -17.8 · avg bull 33.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 673.53 |
Res: 681.50 |
RSI: 58.5 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Neutral |
Sup: 600.93 |
Res: 612.52 |
RSI: 58.6 |
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Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Wed Apr 08 – Thu Apr 09 · as of 09:41 ET |
| Wed Apr 08 |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — est. -1.000M, prev. 5.451M |
| 13:00 |
US |
10-Year Note Auction — prev. 4.217% |
| 14:00 |
US |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
| Thu Apr 09 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.4%, prev. 0.4% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) — est. 3.0%, prev. 3.1% |
| 08:30 |
US |
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) — est. 0.7%, prev. 0.7% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 210K, prev. 202K |
| 13:00 |
US |
30-Year Bond Auction — prev. 4.871% |
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| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.25% |
-9bps |
| Spread |
+44bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
98.74 |
-0.91% |
| VIX/3M |
0.79 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
7.06% |
-0.08% |
| BTC |
$71,689 |
-0.4% |
| ETH |
$2,239 |
-0.1% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0312 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
09:45 ET |
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Industrials
+3.84%
XLI
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Cons. Discr.
+3.78%
XLY
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Technology
+3.61%
XLK
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Financials
+2.92%
XLF
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Materials
+1.76%
XLB
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Communication
+1.66%
XLC
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Real Estate
+1.41%
XLRE
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Health Care
+0.88%
XLV
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Cons. Staples
+0.74%
XLP
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Utilities
+0.04%
XLU
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Energy
-4.93%
XLE
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In today's BEAR regime bounce, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology lead, while defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples lag, a classic risk-on rotation.
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Regime Timeline
HMM V6 · 5-state model · 18 features
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From the Desk · BEAR Day 30 (prev. close)
“The market has been in a bear regime for 30 calendar days, yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 2.38% and 3.00% respectively from the previous close, suggesting a tension between the regime classification and recent price action. Worth watching is the divergence between the VIX's decline to pre-war levels and the surge in European bonds, as traders trim bets on interest rate rises.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions! President DJT”
2h ago
$FXI$SPY$USO$XLE
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“The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
2h ago
$EEM$FXI$SPY$USO
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“It is my Great Honor to endorse Dr. Brian Schmutzler, a MAGA Warrior and REAL Republican running for Indiana's 11th State Senate District, against RINO incumbent Linda Rogers! A Proven Leader, Brian serves his Community as a Highly Respected Anesthesiologist and Medical Director. In the State Senate, he will fight tirelessly to Protect "Hoosier" Values, Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Champion American Energy DOMINANCE, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, Advance Election Integrity, Promote School Choice, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment. Dr. Brian Schmutzler has my Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next State Senator from Indiana's 11th Senate District. Unlike incumbent Linda Rogers, a “RINO” LOSER who has failed the wonderful people of Indiana so badly, DR. BRIAN SCHMUTZLER IS A WINNER WHO WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
17h ago
$INDA$ITA$SPY$XLE
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“State Senator Jim Tomes is an America First Patriot who is doing an incredible job representing Indiana’s 49th State Senate District! A Brave U.S. Army Vietnam Veteran, and Chairman of the Indiana Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs and the Military, Jim knows the Wisdom and Courage required to Defend our Country, Support our Military/Veterans, and Ensure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH. In the State Senate, he is fighting tirelessly to Protect “Hoosier” Values, Stop Migrant Crime, Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Unleash American Energy DOMINANCE, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Safeguard our Elections, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment. Jim Tomes has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
17h ago
$INDA$ITA$SPY$XLE
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“State Senator Daryl Schmidt is doing a tremendous job representing the Great People of Indiana’s 48th State Senate District! A Fifth Generation Family Farmer, Daryl is a strong and effective Voice for Indiana Agriculture, and our amazing Farmers and Ranchers. In the State Senate, he is fighting tirelessly to Protect “Hoosier” Values, Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A. and American Energy DOMINANCE, Safeguard our Elections, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment. Daryl Schmidt has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
17h ago
$INDA$ITA$SPY$XLE
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:44 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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TSLA
bearish
25
“JPMorgan warns Tesla stock could sink 60% in new note.”
WSB 5966 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
mixed
17
“Nearly half of planned US data centers have been delayed or canceled limited by …”
WSB 8250 pts · 4/5 subs
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BRO
mixed
16
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LLY
mixed
16
“LLY just dropped a $149/month weight loss pill shipping today - analysts project…”
WSB 2929 pts · 2/5 subs
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ACT
mixed
10
“This is not a bull market today, it’s all bull shit and people are going to slip…”
STK 1110 pts · 5/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
8
“Spy loss ✌️🥀”
WSB 484 pts · 5/5 subs
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MAR
mixed
6
“Spy loss ✌️🥀”
WSB 484 pts · 2/5 subs
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JPM
mixed
6
“Why JPMorgan is warning Tesla stock may crash 60%”
STK 694 pts · 3/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
2591 Form 4s filed · 09:41 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-03 to 2026-04-08
There are no insider trades provided to synthesize, please provide the data to generate a one-sentence summary of notable insider trades.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$111.6M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Intrator Michael N CEO and President |
$35.0M |
| SELL |
OKLO |
DeWitte Jacob Co-Founder, CEO |
$10.1M |
| SELL |
OKLO |
Cochran Caroline Co-Founder, COO |
$10.1M |
| SELL |
UTHR |
EDGEMOND JAMES CFO AND TREASURER |
$5.6M |
| SELL |
CVNA |
JENKINS MARK W. Chief Financial Officer |
$4.0M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 09:45 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| CVNA |
61.9% |
3.1d |
-13.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| SATS |
27.2% |
7.5d |
+5.8% |
HIGH
|
| AMC |
22.4% |
4.0d |
-6.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
|
| LQDA |
17.2% |
5.9d |
+3.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.7% |
12.8d |
-4.0% |
ELEVATED
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Market Headlines |
7 sources · 09:41 ET |
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LRCX
$247.79
+5.7%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 63 |
1M +4.2% |
3M +10.5% |
1Y +260.7% |
UP |
| Technology |
$311B |
P/E 36.0 |
β 1.79 |
SI 2.4% |
Target $278 |
Rev 22% |
Lam Research (LRCX) presented at the Cantor Fitzgerald conference, highlighting AI-driven growth and operational performance. The stock has surged 275% over the past year, with a recent close at $224.35, and a forward P/E of 36.0. Rich valuation and technical setup pose risks to the stock's momentum.
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AMAT
$386.27
+4.5%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 63 |
1M +2.4% |
3M +21.3% |
1Y +166.7% |
DOWN |
| Technology |
$307B |
P/E 27.8 |
β 1.64 |
SI 1.7% |
Target $418 |
Rev -2% |
Goldman Sachs sees upside for AMAT stock amid chip sector strength. The stock has returned +2.4% in 1M and +166.7% in 1Y, with a forward P/E of 27.8 and a market capitalization of $307B. However, the market may be mispricing the risk of a -2% revenue growth.
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CLS
$313.12
+1.1%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 52 |
1M +10.5% |
3M -2.8% |
1Y +322.4% |
UP |
| Technology |
$36B |
P/E 24.3 |
β 1.35 |
SI 3.2% |
Target $381 |
Rev 44% |
Celestica (CLS) has broken out, with shares rising higher than the market, per Yahoo Finance. The stock has a composite score of 52/100, with a trend of UP, and has returned +10.5% over the past month and +322.4% over the past year. However, CLS was downgraded to a "Hold" rating by Zacks Research, which could limit upside.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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Earnings This Week |
Apr 08 – Apr 22 · 09:45 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| JPM |
Apr 14 ☀ |
N/A |
| JPMorgan Chase's CEO Jamie Dimon has recently warned about risks related to war, inflation, and AI, which may impact the company's performance and investor sentiment ahead of its April 14 earnings report. |
| GEV |
Apr 22 |
N/A |
| Investors should watch for CEO pay and insider selling trends, as well as analyst sentiment, which may impact GE Vernova's stock performance post-earnings on April 22. |
| TSLA |
Apr 22 ☽ |
N/A |
| Investors should watch if Tesla's upcoming earnings on April 22 address JPMorgan's concerns, which could potentially lead to a 60% stock decline, according to the analyst's note. |
| WAB |
Apr 22 ☀ |
N/A |
| Investors will likely monitor WAB's ability to sustain its recent momentum, as the stock has reached an all-time high, when the company reports earnings on April 22. |
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| BTSG |
Buy |
21 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| GEV |
Buy |
34 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 08 |
TMCR
Metals Royalty Co Inc.
|
— |
— |
| Apr 15 |
EMI
Encore Medical, Inc.
|
— |
$17M |
| Apr 16 |
MAIR
Madison Air Solutions Corp
|
— |
$2.6B |
| Apr 17 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
|
— |
$21M |
| Apr 24 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
|
— |
$34M |
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 09:45 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
1,432,831 |
596,184 |
836,647 |
1.40
|
$660C 67,356 vol |
| SPY: Bearish hedge or directional bet, with a hot $660C strike, but P/C ratio of 1.40 suggests downside protection. |
| TSLA |
1,107,830 |
496,384 |
611,446 |
1.23
|
$350C 63,822 vol |
| TSLA: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with a slightly elevated P/C ratio of 1.23 and hot $350C strike. |
| QQQ |
999,921 |
489,224 |
510,697 |
1.04
|
$585C 44,156 vol |
| QQQ: Neutral to slightly bearish flow, with a P/C ratio of 1.04 and hot $585C strike, unclear intentions. |
| NVDA |
546,152 |
249,547 |
296,605 |
1.19
|
$178C 66,409 vol |
| NVDA: Bearish flow with a P/C ratio of 1.19 and hot $178C strike, possibly a protective hedge. |
| AMD |
199,480 |
98,134 |
101,346 |
1.03
|
$222C 12,708 vol |
| AMD: Mixed flow, no clear directional signal, with a P/C ratio of 1.03 and relatively low hot $222C strike volume. |
|
|
VRT
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$109B
· Earnings Apr 29
· Div 10.0%
|
| $240P |
37 DTE |
+29.2% ann. |
+14.2% OTM |
Δ 0.22 |
POP 78% |
|
| Vertiv Holdings (VRT) stock is up today, with a notable CSP opportunity showing a 29.2% annual return for a 37-day expiration. |
|
AAOI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$10B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $100P |
37 DTE |
+104.6% ann. |
+17.8% OTM |
Δ 0.25 |
POP 75% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics' stock rally is driven by a $200M order catalyst, although one analyst sees limited upside to their $108.18 target. |
|
CAVA
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
|
$10B
· Earnings May 14
|
| $70P |
37 DTE |
+30.4% ann. |
+20.0% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| CAVA Group's stock price is down 4.1% according to marketbeat.com, amidst a year-to-date gain of 41% as reported by TIKR.com. |
|
AAOI
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$10B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $130C |
23 DTE |
+165.0% ann. |
+7.7% OTM |
Δ 0.08 |
POP 92% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics' stock rally is driven by a $200M order catalyst, although one analyst sees limited upside to their $108.18 target. |
|
CF
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$18B
· Earnings May 06
· Div 149.0%
|
| $117C |
23 DTE |
+268.2% ann. |
+4.9% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| CF Industries Holdings Inc. stock is outperforming competitors on a strong trading day, according to a report on marketwatch.com. |
|
ADI
CC
Safest
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$169B
· Earnings May 21
· Div 124.0%
|
| $390C |
44 DTE |
+10.8% ann. |
+12.9% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Citi has put Analog Devices on a 30-day positive catalyst watch, according to a report by Investor's Business Daily. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $675 · QQQ $606 · VIX 20.1 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 20.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$670P |
60d |
1 |
$17.43 |
$1,743 |
10.6% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$690P |
60d |
1 |
$33.97 |
$3,397 |
20.7% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$660P |
60d |
2 |
$14.59 |
$2,918 |
17.8% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $690P 60d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$641 |
114% |
$97,216 |
| Correction -10% |
$608 |
97% |
$96,341 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$574 |
91% |
$95,467 |
| Crash -20% |
$540 |
88% |
$94,593 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$555P |
70d |
1 |
$163.03 |
$16,303 |
85.0% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$555P |
70d |
1 |
$163.03 |
$16,303 |
85.0% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$555P |
70d |
2 |
$163.03 |
$32,606 |
170.0% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $555P 70d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$576 |
0% |
$79,447 |
| Correction -10% |
$546 |
11% |
$76,129 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$515 |
31% |
$74,911 |
| Crash -20% |
$485 |
41% |
$73,692 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 09:45 ET
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 08 (MTD) · Hit rate: 28/35 · Avg return: +3.9% · YTD: +4.5%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+53.5% |
Ann. |
77.0% |
Sharpe |
2.54 |
Max DD |
-9.8% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+67.6% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$153,452 |
| Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months |
| Total |
1,629% |
Ann. |
35.7% |
Sharpe |
1.63 |
Max DD |
-13.7% |
| Win% |
71% |
Alpha |
+25.0% |
SPY |
159% |
$100K → |
$1,729,008 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| XOM |
37.6% |
-4.9% |
| AUGO |
8.9% |
+7.8% |
| WMT |
6.0% |
-0.4% |
| WAB |
5.1% |
+5.1% |
| GEV |
3.9% |
+6.7% |
| BTSG |
3.8% |
+10.0% |
| WMB |
3.6% |
-0.1% |
| FCX |
2.5% |
+5.9% |
| BWET |
2.0% |
+4.9% |
| PCAR |
1.8% |
+5.0% |
| SRBK |
1.7% |
+3.5% |
| AAOI |
1.7% |
+39.7% |
| LAR |
1.3% |
+4.5% |
| SATS |
1.2% |
+4.6% |
| LQDA |
1.2% |
+1.4% |
| DNTH |
1.2% |
+3.2% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+1.9% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
+0.2% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-1.9% |
| COST |
0.9% |
+1.7% |
| TERN |
0.8% |
-0.4% |
| MUX |
0.6% |
+4.6% |
| TBN |
0.6% |
-17.8% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+5.2% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-6.7% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+10.9% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
+5.2% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+0.5% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
+0.5% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+2.6% |
| META |
0.5% |
+4.0% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+6.9% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+4.0% |
| ANAB |
0.4% |
+11.9% |
| AGX |
0.4% |
+5.7% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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