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Markets · Options · Signal
April 07, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 09:40 ET
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S&P 500
655.30
-0.55%
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Nasdaq
584.85
-0.62%
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Dow
463.48
-0.70%
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Russell 2k
250.58
-0.71%
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VIX
25.45
+5.30%
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20Y Bond
86.24
-0.48%
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Gold
426.89
-0.18%
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Silver
64.88
-1.84%
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Oil
141.92
+2.14%
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USD
27.83
+0.02%
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CNN Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
wk +8 · mo -2
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AAII Survey 2026-04-01
▲ 33.6%
/
▼ 51.4%
/
15.0%
spread -17.8 · avg bull 33.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bearish |
Sup: 629.28 |
Res: 656.46 |
RSI: 46.2 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bearish |
Sup: 555.60 |
Res: 587.39 |
RSI: 47.0 |
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Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Tue Apr 07 – Thu Apr 09 · as of 09:40 ET |
| Tue Apr 07 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) — est. -1.1%, prev. -0.5% |
| Wed Apr 08 |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — prev. 5.451M |
| 13:00 |
US |
10-Year Note Auction — prev. 4.217% |
| 14:00 |
US |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
| Thu Apr 09 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.4%, prev. 0.4% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) — est. 3.0%, prev. 3.1% |
| 08:30 |
US |
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) — est. 0.7%, prev. 0.7% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 210K, prev. 202K |
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| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.33% |
-0bps |
| Spread |
+53bps |
Normal |
| DXY |
99.97 |
-0.01% |
| VIX/3M |
1.03 |
Flat |
| HY OAS |
7.14% |
+0.00% |
| BTC |
$68,391 |
-0.7% |
| ETH |
$2,080 |
-1.3% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0304 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
09:43 ET |
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Energy
+0.73%
XLE
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Utilities
+0.02%
XLU
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Communication
-0.14%
XLC
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Materials
-0.41%
XLB
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Technology
-0.45%
XLK
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Cons. Staples
-0.57%
XLP
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Financials
-0.62%
XLF
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Industrials
-0.72%
XLI
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Real Estate
-0.74%
XLRE
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Health Care
-0.85%
XLV
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Cons. Discr.
-1.17%
XLY
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Regime Timeline
HMM V6 · 5-state model · 18 features
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From the Desk · BEAR Day 28 (prev. close)
“The data shows the S&P 500 has declined for 28 consecutive days in the current BEAR regime, with today's -0.55% move taking the index to a new low. Worth watching is the divergence between elevated headline inflation expectations, as Fed's Williams expects inflation to remain elevated due to the Ukraine war, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which has not reacted commensurately, currently at 4.47%, suggesting bond traders may be mispricing the inflation risk.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“RT @realDonaldTrumpTwo more major pharmaceutical companies to launch products through TrumpRx: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/two-more-major-pharmaceutical-companies-launch-products-through-trumprx”
27m ago
$XBI$XLVHealthcare
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“Two more major pharmaceutical companies to launch products through TrumpRx: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/two-more-major-pharmaceutical-companies-launch-products-through-trumprx”
1h ago
$XBI$XLVHealthcare
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“Tell Shannon Bream of FoxNews that it’s not the Save Act, it’s the Save America Act, a big difference! Also, when she insists on having lightweight Democrat Congressmen, such as Jake Auchincloss, on her not very hard hitting show, she should correct them when they spew out Democrat propaganda and lies. She never does! I always close deals, unlike the Dems, and did great with China in every way, also, unlike the Dems! For Fox executives only, take Jessica Tarlov off the air. She is, from her voice, to her lies, and everything else about her, one of the worst “personalities” on television, a real loser! People cannot stand watching her. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT”
11h ago
$BABA$FXI$KWEB
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“There is a very important Special Election tomorrow, Tuesday, April 7th, in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District! I am asking all Republicans, America First Patriots, and MAGA Warriors, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for a fantastic Candidate, Clay Fuller, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement! GA-14: Polls are open from 7:00 A.M to 7:00 P.M. IF YOU ARE IN LINE BY 7 P.M., STAY IN LINE, AND THEY MUST LET YOU VOTE! Election Day is TOMORROW, April 7th. GET OUT AND VOTE, VOTE, VOTE FOR CLAY FULLER — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN! Find your Voting Location at: https://swampthevoteusa.com/georgia/”
12h ago
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“Trump Allies Near ‘Total Victory’ in Wiping Out U.S. Climate Regulation: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/climate/endangerment-finding.html”
17h ago
$XLFBanksCompliance
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:43 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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SPY
mixed
29
“Lost hundreds of thousands in SPY options”
WSB 2211 pts · 5/5 subs
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BRO
mixed
28
“Can an issuer vacuum up its own preferred at dumpster prices, then nuke the left…”
WSB 41 pts · 5/5 subs
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TSLA
mixed
25
“JPMorgan warns Tesla stock could sink 60% in new note.”
WSB 5543 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
mixed
20
“Nearly half of planned US data centers have been delayed or canceled limited by …”
WSB 7995 pts · 4/5 subs
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JPM
mixed
16
“i spent my weekend reading 98 s&p 500 10-Ks for tariff and war risks. the result…”
WSB 2552 pts · 3/5 subs
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LLY
mixed
16
“LLY just dropped a $149/month weight loss pill shipping today - analysts project…”
WSB 2878 pts · 3/5 subs
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SPCE
bullish
15
“How I'm playing the SpaceX IPO for a possible 400 bagger”
WSB 2722 pts
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VOO
mixed
11
“Lost hundreds of thousands in SPY options”
WSB 2211 pts · 4/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
4382 Form 4s filed · 09:40 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-07
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Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$111.6M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Intrator Michael N CEO and President |
$35.0M |
| SELL |
OKLO |
DeWitte Jacob Co-Founder, CEO |
$10.1M |
| SELL |
OKLO |
Cochran Caroline Co-Founder, COO |
$10.1M |
| SELL |
STX |
MOSLEY WILLIAM D CEO |
$8.4M |
| SELL |
CVNA |
JENKINS MARK W. Chief Financial Officer |
$4.0M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 09:43 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| CVNA |
61.9% |
3.1d |
-13.5% |
ELEVATED
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| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
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| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
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| AMC |
22.4% |
4.0d |
-6.1% |
ELEVATED
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| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
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| DNTH |
19.5% |
7.1d |
+13.5% |
ELEVATED
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| LQDA |
17.2% |
5.9d |
+3.5% |
ELEVATED
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| TERN |
16.2% |
9.1d |
-2.3% |
ELEVATED
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Market Headlines |
7 sources · 09:40 ET |
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AGX
$568.66
-0.8%
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Bullish
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| Composite 80 |
1M +38.2% |
3M +68.6% |
1Y +344.5% |
FLAT |
| Industrials |
$8B |
P/E 38.1 |
β 0.46 |
SI 4.3% |
Target $473 |
Rev 13% |
Argan (AGX) reported record revenue, higher net income, and a $2.9B backlog rebuild with major new contracts, fueling a 344.5% 1Y return and 13% revenue growth. The company raised its quarterly dividend for the third straight time and is evaluating acquisition opportunities. However, with a 38.1 Fwd P/E and 4.3% short interest, the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.
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WDC
$306.83
+0.8%
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Bullish
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| Composite 73 |
1M +24.0% |
3M +61.9% |
1Y +7.9% |
FLAT |
| Technology |
$105B |
P/E 22.5 |
β 1.83 |
SI 9.2% |
Target $328 |
Rev 25% |
Western Digital (WDC) shares jumped 4.5% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target, citing robust demand for hard disk drives (HDDs). WDC's 1M and 3M returns are +24.0% and +61.9%, respectively, with a forward P/E of 22.5 and a market capitalization of $105B. The market may be overlooking potential risks, such as Seagate (STX) being named as Morgan Stanley's new "top pick" in the sector.
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MRVL
$107.67
-0.0%
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Bullish
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| Composite 61 |
1M +22.3% |
3M +21.4% |
1Y +96.8% |
FLAT |
| Technology |
$94B |
P/E 20.0 |
β 1.82 |
SI 4.6% |
Target $121 |
Rev 22% |
Marvell Technology (MRVL) surged on Nvidia's $2 billion investment and strong earnings guidance, sparking huge unusual options trades. MRVL's forward P/E is 20.0, with a market capitalization of $94B and 22% revenue growth. The market is pricing in optimism, but a potential mispricing could be the sustainability of Nvidia's investment and MRVL's growth trajectory.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 09:43 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
1,096,108 |
475,033 |
621,075 |
1.31
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$658C 67,973 vol |
| QQQ |
712,192 |
278,350 |
433,842 |
1.56
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$590C 33,824 vol |
| TSLA |
502,349 |
265,760 |
236,589 |
0.89
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$360C 42,491 vol |
| AMD |
277,740 |
170,316 |
107,424 |
0.63
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$230C 30,922 vol |
| MU |
230,376 |
159,584 |
70,792 |
0.44
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$400C 32,303 vol |
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VRT
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
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$99B
· Earnings Feb 11
· Div 0.1%
|
| $210P |
38 DTE |
+27.2% ann. |
+18.4% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
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| Vertiv Holdings Co. stock surged after earnings, with Fulton Breakefield Broenniman LLC buying 34,045 shares, and a CSP opportunity showing a 27.2% annual return. |
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AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
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$2B
· Earnings Feb 19
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| $35P |
24 DTE |
+143.4% ann. |
+17.1% OTM |
Δ 0.27 |
POP 73% |
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| AXTI shares are down 12.8% after the company boosted share capacity to fund its AI-focused indium phosphide expansion. |
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BE
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
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$38B
· Earnings Feb 05
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| $110P |
17 DTE |
+48.8% ann. |
+19.9% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
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| Bloom Energy stock has surged amid a rise in oil prices, with one report citing $110 oil as a catalyst for the stock's recent gains. |
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MU
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
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$424B
· Earnings Mar 18
· Div 0.2%
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| $420C |
38 DTE |
+48.9% ann. |
+11.2% OTM |
Δ 0.07 |
POP 93% |
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| Micron's stock is experiencing increased attention due to concerns ahead of a rival's $10 billion US listing, according to Yahoo Finance. |
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AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$2B
· Earnings Feb 19
|
| $45C |
24 DTE |
+259.2% ann. |
+6.5% OTM |
Δ 0.15 |
POP 85% |
|
| AXTI shares are down 12.8% after the company boosted share capacity to fund its AI-focused indium phosphide expansion. |
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AXTI
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$2B
· Earnings Feb 19
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| $48C |
45 DTE |
+164.1% ann. |
+13.6% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| AXTI shares are down 12.8% after the company boosted share capacity to fund its AI-focused indium phosphide expansion. |
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April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 07 (MTD) · Hit rate: 18/35 · Avg return: +0.8% · YTD: +5.0%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+57.1% |
Ann. |
82.6% |
Sharpe |
2.90 |
Max DD |
-9.0% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+73.2% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$157,060 |
| Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months |
| Total |
2,385% |
Ann. |
41.1% |
Sharpe |
1.64 |
Max DD |
-12.9% |
| Win% |
71% |
Alpha |
+30.4% |
SPY |
159% |
$100K → |
$2,485,161 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
18.2% |
+0.1% |
| XOM |
17.9% |
+2.4% |
| JNJ |
17.1% |
-2.9% |
| CNL |
7.7% |
-1.4% |
| AUGO |
6.1% |
+2.1% |
| EMEQ |
3.5% |
-0.1% |
| GEV |
2.8% |
-0.4% |
| AAOI |
2.6% |
+28.2% |
| MU |
2.4% |
+2.3% |
| BTSG |
2.3% |
+2.8% |
| LQDA |
1.8% |
-1.0% |
| DNTH |
1.7% |
-0.4% |
| TERN |
1.3% |
-0.3% |
| TBN |
1.2% |
-2.8% |
| AAMI |
1.0% |
-0.4% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+0.9% |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-5.5% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
-2.5% |
|
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| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| COST |
0.9% |
+1.7% |
| MUX |
0.9% |
+1.1% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+1.9% |
| ANAB |
0.6% |
+7.9% |
| AGX |
0.6% |
-0.5% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-0.7% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
-1.7% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-9.1% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
+4.5% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
+1.5% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+0.2% |
| META |
0.5% |
-1.6% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
+0.5% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+0.5% |
| MKOR |
0.5% |
+0.1% |
| SYRE |
0.4% |
+0.8% |
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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