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MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
April 06, 2026 · All times ET
Regime BEAR Day 26
Market Snapshot · 09:38 ET
S&P 500
656.02
+0.03%
Nasdaq
586.16
+0.20%
Dow
464.54
-0.11%
Russell 2k
251.64
+0.14%
VIX
25.14
+5.32%
20Y Bond
86.47
-0.37%
Gold
428.75
-0.15%
Silver
65.68
-0.17%
Oil
139.11
+0.86%
USD
27.80
-0.22%
CNN Fear & Greed
19 Extreme Fear
wk +5 · mo -6
AAII Survey 2026-04-01
▲ 33.6% / ▼ 51.4% / 15.0%
spread -17.8 · avg bull 33.0%
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bearish Sup: 629.28 Res: 657.41 RSI: 47.0
QQQ Trend: Bearish Sup: 555.60 Res: 588.46 RSI: 48.6
Econ Calendar
6 high-impact · Mon Apr 06 – Wed Apr 08 · as of 09:38 ET
Mon Apr 06
10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) — est. 54.8, prev. 56.1
10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Mar) — prev. 63.0
Tue Apr 07
08:30 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) — est. -1.0%, prev. 0.0%
Wed Apr 08
10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories — prev. 5.451M
13:00 US 10-Year Note Auction — prev. 4.217%
14:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Macro Snapshot
09:45 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 3.81% +0bps
10Y Yield 4.34% +3bps
Spread +54bps Steepening
DXY 99.85 -0.18%
VIX/3M 1.02 Flat
HY OAS 7.14% +0.00%
BTC $69,305 +0.5%
ETH $2,142 +1.6%
ETH/BTC 0.0309
Sector Rotation · Today
09:45 ET
Financials
+0.51%
XLF
Technology
+0.50%
XLK
Cons. Discr.
+0.41%
XLY
Communication
+0.29%
XLC
Energy
+0.24%
XLE
Cons. Staples
+0.01%
XLP
Real Estate
-0.07%
XLRE
Utilities
-0.13%
XLU
Industrials
-0.43%
XLI
Health Care
-0.46%
XLV
Materials
-0.68%
XLB
Regime Timeline
HMM Regime Detection — SPY 90-day timeline
HMM V6 · 5-state model · 18 features
From the Desk · BEAR Day 26 (prev. close)
“The data shows that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are attempting to stabilize in the BEAR regime on day 26, with gains of 0.03% and 0.20% respectively, while the Russell 2k outperforms with a 0.14% gain. Worth watching is the divergence between the slumping private equity buyouts, down on AI fears and war denting dealmaking, and the IPO market, where industrial firm Madison Air and senior housing-focused REIT National Healthcare are seeking to raise $2.23 billion and file for a US IPO respectively.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
“I have known and respected Steve Hilton, who is running for Governor of California, for many years. He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell. Gavin Newscum and the Democrats have done an absolutely horrendous job. People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World. Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so! With Federal help, and a Great Governor, like Steve Hilton, California can be better than ever before! Steve Hilton has my COMPLETE & TOTAL ENDORSEMENT. He will be a GREAT Governor and, importantly, WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
8h ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
“It’s too bad that the Supreme Court can’t watch and study the Mark Levin Show tonight on the Birthright Citizenship Scam. If they saw it they would never allow that money making HOAX to continue. THEY SHOULD USE THEIR POWERS OF COMMON SENSE FOR THE GOOD OF OUR COUNTRY. They failed miserably on Tariffs, needlessly costing the USA Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in potential rebates for the benefit haters and scammers. Why??? Don’t do it again! The Country can only withstand so many bad decisions from a Court that just doesn’t seem to care.”
8h ago
$DXY$FXI$SPY$UUP
“FROM PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMPWE GOT HIM! My fellow Americans, over the past several hours, the United States Military pulled off one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S. History, for one of our incredible Crew Member Officers, who also happens to be a highly respected Colonel, and who I am thrilled to let you know is now SAFE and SOUND! This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour, but was never truly alone because his Commander in Chief, Secretary of War, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and fellow Warfighters were monitoring his location 24 hours a day, and diligently planning for his rescue. At my direction, the U.S. Military sent dozens of aircraft, armed with the most lethal weapons in the World, to retrieve him. He sustained injuries, but he will be just fine. This miraculous Search and Rescue Operation comes in addition to a successful rescue of another brave Pilot, yesterday, which we did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardize our second rescue operation. This is the first time in military memory that two U.S. Pilots have been rescued, separately, deep in Enemy Territory. WE WILL NEVER LEAVE AN AMERICAN WARFIGHTER BEHIND! The fact that we were able to pull off both of these operations, without a SINGLE American killed, or even wounded, just proves once again, that we have achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies. This is a moment that ALL Americans, Republican, Democrat, and everyone else, should be proud of and united around. We truly have the best, most professional, and lethal Military in the History of the World. GOD BLESS AMERICA, GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS, AND HAPPY EASTER TO ALL!”
1d ago
$USO$XLEDefense
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:42 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
SPY mixed 43
“Lost hundreds of thousands in SPY options”
WSB 2168 pts · 5/5 subs
META bearish 18
“Nearly half of planned US data centers have been delayed or canceled limited by …”
WSB 5973 pts · 4/5 subs
LLY mixed 16
“LLY just dropped a $149/month weight loss pill shipping today - analysts project…”
WSB 1534 pts · 3/5 subs
SPCE bullish 15
“How I'm playing the SpaceX IPO for a possible 400 bagger”
WSB 2412 pts
NVDA mixed 13
“i spent my weekend reading 98 s&p 500 10-Ks for tariff and war risks. the result…”
WSB 2441 pts · 4/5 subs
BRO mixed 12
“Can an issuer vacuum up its own preferred at dumpster prices, then nuke the left…”
WSB 30 pts · 5/5 subs
WISH mixed 11
“20K loss day trading SPY 0DTE puts and calls”
WSB 508 pts · 4/5 subs
VOO mixed 11
“Lost hundreds of thousands in SPY options”
WSB 2168 pts · 4/5 subs
Insider Wire
4786 Form 4s filed · 09:38 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-01 to 2026-04-06
Ticker Insider Value
SELL CRWV Intrator Michael N CEO and President $35.0M
SELL OKLO DeWitte Jacob Co-Founder, CEO $10.1M
SELL CRWV McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer $10.0M
SELL TSLA Wilson-Thompson Kathleen Director $9.3M
SELL CVNA JENKINS MARK W. Chief Financial Officer $4.0M
SELL CRWV McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer $1.6M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 09:45 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
CVNA 61.9% 3.1d -13.5% ELEVATED
UPST 33.4% 4.8d +17.9% ELEVATED
BYND 29.7% 4.0d -9.4% ELEVATED
AMC 22.4% 4.0d -6.1% ELEVATED
SMCI 19.7% 3.6d +2.7% ELEVATED
LQDA 17.2% 5.9d +3.5% ELEVATED
TERN 16.2% 9.1d -2.3% ELEVATED
GME 15.7% 12.8d -4.0% ELEVATED
Market Headlines
7 sources · 09:38 ET
Rupee Holds Gain After Biggest Surge in 12 Years on RBI Moves
BBG 8h ago
RBI intervention may stabilize INR, impacting emerging market sentiment and potentially boosting risk assets.
BBG Senior Housing-Focused REIT National Healthcare Files for US IPO 40m ago
FT Private equity buyouts slump as AI fears and war dent dealmaking
Private equity slump may signal economic slowdown, affecting Financials and M&A-heavy sectors like Industrials.
9h ago
BBG US Stock Futures Rise as Dip Buyers Return Amid Ceasefire Hopes
Dip buying in US futures suggests short-term bullishness, contradicting BEAR regime, but may be short-lived.
59m ago
BBG Industrial Firm Madison Air Seeks to Raise $2.23 Billion in IPO 2h ago
BBG India Raises Gas Supply for Fertilizer Firms as Imports Improve
Increased gas supply for Indian fertilizer firms may benefit Commodities and Materials sectors, specifically urea producers.
2h ago
BBG Stocks Waver as Traders Gauge Ceasefire Chances: Markets Wrap 17h ago
BBG US Premarket Movers: Boot Barn, Carvana, Dow, Netflix, Kratos 1h ago
Research Digest
09:44 ET
AGX $577.55 +0.2% Bullish
Composite 80 1M +33.7% 3M +76.5% 1Y +316.7% FLAT
Industrials $8B P/E 38.7 β 0.46 SI 4.3% Target $473 Rev 13%
Argan (AGX) reported record revenue, net income, and a $2.9B backlog, with a 3rd straight dividend increase, driving a 1M +33.7% and 3M +76.5% return. The stock trades at a 38.7 Fwd P/E with a 13% revenue growth expectation. Sustainability of growth and stability are key concerns.
SIM Argan (AGX) Valuation Check After Record Earnings Backlog Expansion And Third Straight Dividend Incr
INV Stock Market Leaders Have Earnings Power, Top-Notch Ratings For Earnings Per Share
ZAC Argan's Backlog Rebuild Signals Recovery: Is the Growth Sustainable?
WDC $303.36 +3.1% Bullish
Composite 73 1M +13.9% 3M +57.1% 1Y +6.1% FLAT
Technology $104B P/E 22.2 β 1.83 SI 9.2% Target $328 Rev 25%
Western Digital (WDC) is seeing renewed focus amid AI-driven storage demand and upcoming Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings, with analyst calls turning upbeat. The stock has been volatile, with a forward P/E of 22.2 and a market capitalization of $104B. However, with a short interest of 9.2% and a beta of 1.83, the market may be mispricing potential execution risks.
BBG Micron Is Slumping and Rival’s $10 Billion US Listing Won’t Help
INS Jim Cramer on Sandisk: “I Always Tell You This Is Inherently a Boom and Bust Industry”
MOT Prediction: 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Will Quietly Double While the Market Panics Over Tu
SATS $127.18 -2.9% Bullish
Composite 67 1M +16.1% 3M +14.7% 1Y +389.5% UP
Communication Services $37B P/E -86.8 β 1.00 SI 27.2% Target $130 Rev -4%
EchoStar (SATS) agreed to sell its AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses to SpaceX for about $17b, fueling a 11.7% 7-day and 16.1% 30-day surge in its share price to $128.68. The deal may provide balance sheet relief and boost investor sentiment. However, with a rich valuation (fwd P/E -86.8) and high short interest (27.2%), the market may be overestimating the company's prospects.
SIM Is It Too Late To Reassess EchoStar (SATS) After Its Surging Share Price?
SIM EchoStar (SATS) Valuation Check After US$17b SpaceX Spectrum Sale Agreement And Ongoing Market Momen
INV NASA Artemis Mission Almost Halfway To Moon; Space Stock Charts Improve
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Earnings This Week
Apr 06 – Apr 20 · 09:45 ET
Ticker Date Exp. Move
JNJ Apr 14 N/A
Investors will closely watch Johnson & Johnson's upcoming earnings on April 14, as a strong performance in its pharmaceutical segment, particularly with ICOTYDE psoriasis data, could drive stock movement.
JPM Apr 14 N/A
JPMorgan Chase's upcoming earnings on April 14 will be closely watched for signs of resilience in its consumer and investment banking businesses amid a volatile market.
Analyst Moves
09:45 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
NVDA Buy 66 / 4 / 1 2026-04-01
AMZN Buy 71 / 5 / 0 2026-04-01
WMT Buy 44 / 4 / 0 2026-04-01
AUGO Buy 11 / 1 / 0 2026-04-01
CNL Buy 10 / 1 / 0 2026-04-01
MSFT Buy 59 / 6 / 0 2026-04-01
META Buy 64 / 8 / 0 2026-04-01
AAPL Buy 37 / 15 / 2 2026-04-01
IPO Calendar
09:45 ET
Date Company Range Size
Apr 08 TMCR Metals Royalty Co Inc. — —
Apr 15 EMI Encore Medical, Inc. — $17M
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 09:45 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 1,292,963 507,597 785,366
1.55
$655C 63,540 vol
QQQ 949,863 365,412 584,451
1.60
$589C 41,116 vol
TSLA 543,257 290,905 252,352
0.87
$380C 49,248 vol
NVDA 334,934 164,277 170,657
1.04
$180C 44,855 vol
AMD 165,646 95,245 70,401
0.74
$220C 14,152 vol
Income Plays
09:45 ET
AXTI CSP Best Quality Very High · max 3% $2B · Earnings Apr 30
$40P 39 DTE +152.1% ann. +15.5% OTM Δ 0.23 POP 77%
AXTI slips 3.4% due to investor concerns over dilution and China export-permit overhang, according to Quiver Quantitative.
AXTI CSP Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $2B · Earnings Apr 30
$40P 18 DTE +129.3% ann. +15.5% OTM Δ 0.20 POP 80%
AXTI slips 3.4% due to investor concerns over dilution and China export-permit overhang, according to Quiver Quantitative.
AAOI CSP Safest Very High · max 3% $9B · Earnings May 07
$90P 18 DTE +76.6% ann. +19.8% OTM Δ 0.28 POP 72%
Applied Optoelectronics' stock is moving due to a $200 million deal that has caught analyst attention, according to Yahoo Finance.
MU CC Best Quality Very High · max 3% $428B · Earnings Jun 24 · Div 16.0%
$400C 25 DTE +72.0% ann. +6.9% OTM Δ 0.12 POP 88%
Micron stock is rising in pre-market trading on 4/6/26, according to TipRanks.
AAOI CC Craziest Return Low · max 1% $9B · Earnings May 07
$121C 32 DTE +187.9% ann. +5.7% OTM Δ 0.17 POP 83%
Applied Optoelectronics' stock is moving due to a $200 million deal that has caught analyst attention, according to Yahoo Finance.
SNEX CC Safest Moderate · max 1.5% $7B · Earnings May 06
$95C 39 DTE +27.1% ann. +13.6% OTM Δ 0.06 POP 94%
StoneX Group (SNEX) stock is up 7.7% after launching new securitization and ag-tech partnerships, according to simplywall.st.
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 06 (MTD) · Hit rate: 16/31 · Avg return: +1.1% · YTD: +5.6%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months
Return +58.5% Ann. 84.8% Sharpe 2.95 Max DD -8.7%
Win% 89% Alpha +75.4% SPY +7.0% $100K → $158,507
Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months
Total 2,338% Ann. 40.8% Sharpe 1.63 Max DD -13.0%
Win% 70% Alpha +30.1% SPY 159% $100K → $2,438,342
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
WMT 18.2% +1.1%
XOM 17.9% +0.4%
JNJ 17.1% -0.8%
CNL 7.7% -1.2%
AUGO 6.1% +1.9%
EMEQ 3.5% -0.5%
AAOI 2.6% +31.0%
MU 2.4% +1.3%
BTSG 2.3% +1.9%
GEV 1.9% +0.7%
LQDA 1.8% +1.7%
TERN 1.3% -0.2%
AAMI 1.0% -0.5%
PGR 0.9% +0.7%
LLY 0.9% -2.7%
GLD 0.9% -2.1%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
COST 0.9% +1.3%
MUX 0.9% +0.6%
PSI 0.7% +1.9%
ANAB 0.6% +5.2%
GOOGL 0.5% -0.4%
JPM 0.5% -0.0%
META 0.5% -0.3%
MSFT 0.5% +0.2%
NVDA 0.5% +0.2%
BRK.B 0.5% -0.1%
AVGO 0.5% -0.8%
TSLA 0.5% -4.3%
AAPL 0.5% +0.7%
AMZN 0.5% -0.3%
MKOR 0.5% -2.5%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
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