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Markets · Options · Signal
April 06, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 09:38 ET
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S&P 500
656.02
+0.03%
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Nasdaq
586.16
+0.20%
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Dow
464.54
-0.11%
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Russell 2k
251.64
+0.14%
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VIX
25.14
+5.32%
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20Y Bond
86.47
-0.37%
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Gold
428.75
-0.15%
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Silver
65.68
-0.17%
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Oil
139.11
+0.86%
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USD
27.80
-0.22%
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CNN Fear & Greed
19
Extreme Fear
wk +5 · mo -6
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AAII Survey 2026-04-01
▲ 33.6%
/
▼ 51.4%
/
15.0%
spread -17.8 · avg bull 33.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bearish |
Sup: 629.28 |
Res: 657.41 |
RSI: 47.0 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bearish |
Sup: 555.60 |
Res: 588.46 |
RSI: 48.6 |
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Econ Calendar |
6 high-impact · Mon Apr 06 – Wed Apr 08 · as of 09:38 ET |
| Mon Apr 06 |
| 10:00 |
US |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) — est. 54.8, prev. 56.1 |
| 10:00 |
US |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Mar) — prev. 63.0 |
| Tue Apr 07 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) — est. -1.0%, prev. 0.0% |
| Wed Apr 08 |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — prev. 5.451M |
| 13:00 |
US |
10-Year Note Auction — prev. 4.217% |
| 14:00 |
US |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
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| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.81% |
+0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.34% |
+3bps |
| Spread |
+54bps |
Steepening |
| DXY |
99.85 |
-0.18% |
| VIX/3M |
1.02 |
Flat |
| HY OAS |
7.14% |
+0.00% |
| BTC |
$69,305 |
+0.5% |
| ETH |
$2,142 |
+1.6% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0309 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
09:45 ET |
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Financials
+0.51%
XLF
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Technology
+0.50%
XLK
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Cons. Discr.
+0.41%
XLY
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Communication
+0.29%
XLC
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Energy
+0.24%
XLE
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Cons. Staples
+0.01%
XLP
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Real Estate
-0.07%
XLRE
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Utilities
-0.13%
XLU
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Industrials
-0.43%
XLI
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Health Care
-0.46%
XLV
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Materials
-0.68%
XLB
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Regime Timeline
HMM V6 · 5-state model · 18 features
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From the Desk · BEAR Day 26 (prev. close)
“The data shows that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are attempting to stabilize in the BEAR regime on day 26, with gains of 0.03% and 0.20% respectively, while the Russell 2k outperforms with a 0.14% gain. Worth watching is the divergence between the slumping private equity buyouts, down on AI fears and war denting dealmaking, and the IPO market, where industrial firm Madison Air and senior housing-focused REIT National Healthcare are seeking to raise $2.23 billion and file for a US IPO respectively.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“I have known and respected Steve Hilton, who is running for Governor of California, for many years. He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell. Gavin Newscum and the Democrats have done an absolutely horrendous job. People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World. Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so! With Federal help, and a Great Governor, like Steve Hilton, California can be better than ever before! Steve Hilton has my COMPLETE & TOTAL ENDORSEMENT. He will be a GREAT Governor and, importantly, WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
8h ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
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“It’s too bad that the Supreme Court can’t watch and study the Mark Levin Show tonight on the Birthright Citizenship Scam. If they saw it they would never allow that money making HOAX to continue. THEY SHOULD USE THEIR POWERS OF COMMON SENSE FOR THE GOOD OF OUR COUNTRY. They failed miserably on Tariffs, needlessly costing the USA Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in potential rebates for the benefit haters and scammers. Why??? Don’t do it again! The Country can only withstand so many bad decisions from a Court that just doesn’t seem to care.”
8h ago
$DXY$FXI$SPY$UUP
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“FROM PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMPWE GOT HIM! My fellow Americans, over the past several hours, the United States Military pulled off one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S. History, for one of our incredible Crew Member Officers, who also happens to be a highly respected Colonel, and who I am thrilled to let you know is now SAFE and SOUND! This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour, but was never truly alone because his Commander in Chief, Secretary of War, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and fellow Warfighters were monitoring his location 24 hours a day, and diligently planning for his rescue. At my direction, the U.S. Military sent dozens of aircraft, armed with the most lethal weapons in the World, to retrieve him. He sustained injuries, but he will be just fine. This miraculous Search and Rescue Operation comes in addition to a successful rescue of another brave Pilot, yesterday, which we did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardize our second rescue operation. This is the first time in military memory that two U.S. Pilots have been rescued, separately, deep in Enemy Territory. WE WILL NEVER LEAVE AN AMERICAN WARFIGHTER BEHIND! The fact that we were able to pull off both of these operations, without a SINGLE American killed, or even wounded, just proves once again, that we have achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies. This is a moment that ALL Americans, Republican, Democrat, and everyone else, should be proud of and united around. We truly have the best, most professional, and lethal Military in the History of the World. GOD BLESS AMERICA, GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS, AND HAPPY EASTER TO ALL!”
1d ago
$USO$XLEDefense
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:42 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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SPY
mixed
43
“Lost hundreds of thousands in SPY options”
WSB 2168 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
bearish
18
“Nearly half of planned US data centers have been delayed or canceled limited by …”
WSB 5973 pts · 4/5 subs
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LLY
mixed
16
“LLY just dropped a $149/month weight loss pill shipping today - analysts project…”
WSB 1534 pts · 3/5 subs
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SPCE
bullish
15
“How I'm playing the SpaceX IPO for a possible 400 bagger”
WSB 2412 pts
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NVDA
mixed
13
“i spent my weekend reading 98 s&p 500 10-Ks for tariff and war risks. the result…”
WSB 2441 pts · 4/5 subs
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BRO
mixed
12
“Can an issuer vacuum up its own preferred at dumpster prices, then nuke the left…”
WSB 30 pts · 5/5 subs
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WISH
mixed
11
“20K loss day trading SPY 0DTE puts and calls”
WSB 508 pts · 4/5 subs
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VOO
mixed
11
“Lost hundreds of thousands in SPY options”
WSB 2168 pts · 4/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
4786 Form 4s filed · 09:38 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-04-01 to 2026-04-06
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Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Intrator Michael N CEO and President |
$35.0M |
| SELL |
OKLO |
DeWitte Jacob Co-Founder, CEO |
$10.1M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$10.0M |
| SELL |
TSLA |
Wilson-Thompson Kathleen Director |
$9.3M |
| SELL |
CVNA |
JENKINS MARK W. Chief Financial Officer |
$4.0M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$1.6M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 09:45 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| CVNA |
61.9% |
3.1d |
-13.5% |
ELEVATED
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| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
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| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
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| AMC |
22.4% |
4.0d |
-6.1% |
ELEVATED
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| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
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| LQDA |
17.2% |
5.9d |
+3.5% |
ELEVATED
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| TERN |
16.2% |
9.1d |
-2.3% |
ELEVATED
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| GME |
15.7% |
12.8d |
-4.0% |
ELEVATED
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Market Headlines |
7 sources · 09:38 ET |
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AGX
$577.55
+0.2%
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Bullish
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| Composite 80 |
1M +33.7% |
3M +76.5% |
1Y +316.7% |
FLAT |
| Industrials |
$8B |
P/E 38.7 |
β 0.46 |
SI 4.3% |
Target $473 |
Rev 13% |
Argan (AGX) reported record revenue, net income, and a $2.9B backlog, with a 3rd straight dividend increase, driving a 1M +33.7% and 3M +76.5% return. The stock trades at a 38.7 Fwd P/E with a 13% revenue growth expectation. Sustainability of growth and stability are key concerns.
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WDC
$303.36
+3.1%
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Bullish
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| Composite 73 |
1M +13.9% |
3M +57.1% |
1Y +6.1% |
FLAT |
| Technology |
$104B |
P/E 22.2 |
β 1.83 |
SI 9.2% |
Target $328 |
Rev 25% |
Western Digital (WDC) is seeing renewed focus amid AI-driven storage demand and upcoming Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings, with analyst calls turning upbeat. The stock has been volatile, with a forward P/E of 22.2 and a market capitalization of $104B. However, with a short interest of 9.2% and a beta of 1.83, the market may be mispricing potential execution risks.
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SATS
$127.18
-2.9%
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Bullish
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| Composite 67 |
1M +16.1% |
3M +14.7% |
1Y +389.5% |
UP |
| Communication Services |
$37B |
P/E -86.8 |
β 1.00 |
SI 27.2% |
Target $130 |
Rev -4% |
EchoStar (SATS) agreed to sell its AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses to SpaceX for about $17b, fueling a 11.7% 7-day and 16.1% 30-day surge in its share price to $128.68. The deal may provide balance sheet relief and boost investor sentiment. However, with a rich valuation (fwd P/E -86.8) and high short interest (27.2%), the market may be overestimating the company's prospects.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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Earnings This Week |
Apr 06 – Apr 20 · 09:45 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| JNJ |
Apr 14 |
N/A |
| Investors will closely watch Johnson & Johnson's upcoming earnings on April 14, as a strong performance in its pharmaceutical segment, particularly with ICOTYDE psoriasis data, could drive stock movement. |
| JPM |
Apr 14 |
N/A |
| JPMorgan Chase's upcoming earnings on April 14 will be closely watched for signs of resilience in its consumer and investment banking businesses amid a volatile market. |
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
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2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
37 / 15 / 2
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2026-04-01 |
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| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 08 |
TMCR
Metals Royalty Co Inc.
|
— |
— |
| Apr 15 |
EMI
Encore Medical, Inc.
|
— |
$17M |
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Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 09:45 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
1,292,963 |
507,597 |
785,366 |
1.55
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$655C 63,540 vol |
| QQQ |
949,863 |
365,412 |
584,451 |
1.60
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$589C 41,116 vol |
| TSLA |
543,257 |
290,905 |
252,352 |
0.87
|
$380C 49,248 vol |
| NVDA |
334,934 |
164,277 |
170,657 |
1.04
|
$180C 44,855 vol |
| AMD |
165,646 |
95,245 |
70,401 |
0.74
|
$220C 14,152 vol |
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AXTI
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$2B
· Earnings Apr 30
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| $40P |
39 DTE |
+152.1% ann. |
+15.5% OTM |
Δ 0.23 |
POP 77% |
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| AXTI slips 3.4% due to investor concerns over dilution and China export-permit overhang, according to Quiver Quantitative. |
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AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
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$2B
· Earnings Apr 30
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| $40P |
18 DTE |
+129.3% ann. |
+15.5% OTM |
Δ 0.20 |
POP 80% |
|
| AXTI slips 3.4% due to investor concerns over dilution and China export-permit overhang, according to Quiver Quantitative. |
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AAOI
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
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$9B
· Earnings May 07
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| $90P |
18 DTE |
+76.6% ann. |
+19.8% OTM |
Δ 0.28 |
POP 72% |
|
| Applied Optoelectronics' stock is moving due to a $200 million deal that has caught analyst attention, according to Yahoo Finance. |
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MU
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$428B
· Earnings Jun 24
· Div 16.0%
|
| $400C |
25 DTE |
+72.0% ann. |
+6.9% OTM |
Δ 0.12 |
POP 88% |
|
| Micron stock is rising in pre-market trading on 4/6/26, according to TipRanks. |
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AAOI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$9B
· Earnings May 07
|
| $121C |
32 DTE |
+187.9% ann. |
+5.7% OTM |
Δ 0.17 |
POP 83% |
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| Applied Optoelectronics' stock is moving due to a $200 million deal that has caught analyst attention, according to Yahoo Finance. |
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SNEX
CC
Safest
Moderate · max 1.5%
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$7B
· Earnings May 06
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| $95C |
39 DTE |
+27.1% ann. |
+13.6% OTM |
Δ 0.06 |
POP 94% |
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| StoneX Group (SNEX) stock is up 7.7% after launching new securitization and ag-tech partnerships, according to simplywall.st. |
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April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 06 (MTD) · Hit rate: 16/31 · Avg return: +1.1% · YTD: +5.6%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+58.5% |
Ann. |
84.8% |
Sharpe |
2.95 |
Max DD |
-8.7% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+75.4% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$158,507 |
| Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months |
| Total |
2,338% |
Ann. |
40.8% |
Sharpe |
1.63 |
Max DD |
-13.0% |
| Win% |
70% |
Alpha |
+30.1% |
SPY |
159% |
$100K → |
$2,438,342 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
18.2% |
+1.1% |
| XOM |
17.9% |
+0.4% |
| JNJ |
17.1% |
-0.8% |
| CNL |
7.7% |
-1.2% |
| AUGO |
6.1% |
+1.9% |
| EMEQ |
3.5% |
-0.5% |
| AAOI |
2.6% |
+31.0% |
| MU |
2.4% |
+1.3% |
| BTSG |
2.3% |
+1.9% |
| GEV |
1.9% |
+0.7% |
| LQDA |
1.8% |
+1.7% |
| TERN |
1.3% |
-0.2% |
| AAMI |
1.0% |
-0.5% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+0.7% |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-2.7% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
-2.1% |
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| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| COST |
0.9% |
+1.3% |
| MUX |
0.9% |
+0.6% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+1.9% |
| ANAB |
0.6% |
+5.2% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
-0.0% |
| META |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+0.2% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+0.2% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
-0.8% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-4.3% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
+0.7% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
| MKOR |
0.5% |
-2.5% |
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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