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MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
April 03, 2026 · All times ET
Regime BEAR Day 25
Market Snapshot · 10:43 ET
S&P 500
655.83
+0.09%
Nasdaq
584.98
+0.11%
Dow
465.06
-0.09%
Russell 2k
251.29
+0.69%
VIX
23.87
-2.73%
20Y Bond
86.79
+0.61%
Gold
429.41
-1.92%
Silver
65.79
-3.45%
Oil
137.92
+11.15%
USD
27.86
+0.47%
CNN Fear & Greed
19 Extreme Fear
wk +5 · mo -13
AAII Survey 2026-04-01
▲ 33.6% / ▼ 51.4% / 15.0%
spread -17.8 · avg bull 33.0%
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bearish Sup: 629.28 Res: 658.09 RSI: 46.3
QQQ Trend: Bearish Sup: 555.60 Res: 589.01 RSI: 46.9
Econ Calendar
4 high-impact · Fri Apr 03 – Fri Apr 03 · as of 10:43 ET
Fri Apr 03
08:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.4%
08:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) — est. 65K, prev. -133K
08:30 US Unemployment Rate (Mar) — est. 4.4%, prev. 4.4%
09:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) — est. 51.1, prev. 51.7
Macro Snapshot
10:47 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 3.81% +0bps
10Y Yield 4.31% -1bps
Spread +51bps Flattening
DXY 100.13 +0.10%
VIX/3M 0.97 Flat
HY OAS 7.14% -0.11%
BTC $66,823 -0.1%
ETH $2,050 -0.3%
ETH/BTC 0.0307
Sector Rotation · Today
10:47 ET
Real Estate
+1.78%
XLRE
Technology
+0.68%
XLK
Cons. Staples
+0.65%
XLP
Energy
+0.61%
XLE
Materials
+0.59%
XLB
Communication
+0.50%
XLC
Utilities
+0.43%
XLU
Financials
+0.24%
XLF
Industrials
-0.18%
XLI
Health Care
-0.59%
XLV
Cons. Discr.
-1.07%
XLY
From the Desk · BEAR Day 25 (prev. close)
“The data shows that despite a strong jobs report, with 178,000 jobs added in March and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, Treasury yields are rising and bonds are falling, as the market adjusts to a reduced outlook for Fed rate cuts. Worth watching is the divergence between the BEAR regime's 25-day persistence and the Russell 2k's +0.69% move, outpacing the S&P 500's +0.09%, suggesting a potential sector rotation into small caps.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
“With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMP”
2h ago
$USO$XLEEnergy Sector
“Vice President JD Vance is now in charge of “FRAUD” in the United States. It is massive and pervasive, and the job he will be doing, in conjunction with many great people within the Trump Administration, will be a major factor in how great the future of our Country will be. We will call him the “FRAUD CZAR,” and his focus will be “EVERYWHERE,” but primarily in those Blue States where CROOKED DEMOCRAT POLITICIANS, like those in California, Illinois, Minnesota (Somalia beware!), Maine, New York, and many others, have had a “free for all” in the unprecedented theft of Taxpayer Money. The numbers are so large that, if successful, we would literally be able to balance our American Budget. Raids have already started in L.A. Good Luck JD!”
2h ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
“I would like to thank the hardworking Commissioners and Staff of the National Capital Planning Commission, who just voted overwhelmingly, 8-1, to approve the magnificent White House Ballroom now rising on this Hallowed Ground. I am pleased to announce that even Board Member Senator Rand Paul, known as an extraordinarily difficult vote, voted a strong YES. For more than 150 years, every President has dreamt about having a Ballroom at the White House to accommodate people for Grand Parties, State Visits, and even, in the Modern Day, Inaugurations. I am honored to be the first President to finally get this much-needed project, which is on time and under budget, underway. When completed, it will be the Greatest and Most Beautiful Ballroom of its kind anywhere in the World, and a fabulous complement to our Beautiful and Storied White House! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
16h ago
$ITADefense Sector
“Pam Bondi is a Great American Patriot and a loyal friend, who faithfully served as my Attorney General over the past year. Pam did a tremendous job overseeing a massive crackdown in Crime across our Country, with Murders plummeting to their lowest level since 1900. We love Pam, and she will be transitioning to a much needed and important new job in the private sector, to be announced at a date in the near future, and our Deputy Attorney General, and a very talented and respected Legal Mind, Todd Blanche, will step in to serve as Acting Attorney General. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
21h ago
“The biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again — Much more to follow! IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE, AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF WHAT STILL COULD BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
22h ago
$USO$XLEDefense
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:46 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
SPY mixed 28
“20K loss day trading SPY 0DTE puts and calls”
WSB 384 pts · 5/5 subs
WISH mixed 17
“20K loss day trading SPY 0DTE puts and calls”
WSB 384 pts · 3/5 subs
XLE bearish 10
“Regard said my bear thesis aged like milk. Oil ripped 8% that night.”
WSB 2121 pts
DOCS bullish 10
“Michael Burry Flags 'Structural Manipulation' Risk In Nasdaq Rules Ahead Of Pote…”
STK 956 pts · 2/5 subs
CAT bearish 10
“US stock indices rally smells like a dead cat bounce”
SM 1117 pts · 2/5 subs
ONTO mixed 9
“Michael Burry Flags 'Structural Manipulation' Risk In Nasdaq Rules Ahead Of Pote…”
STK 956 pts · 4/5 subs
GOOGL mixed 6
“Wish it were an April Fools Joke”
WSB 672 pts · 4/5 subs
UI bullish 6
“10k 0dte spx puts gain”
WSB 123 pts · 4/5 subs
Insider Wire
4466 Form 4s filed · 10:44 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-03-29 to 2026-04-03
Ticker Insider Value
SELL CRWV McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer $10.0M
SELL TSLA Wilson-Thompson Kathleen Director $9.3M
SELL STX MOSLEY WILLIAM D CEO $8.4M
SELL HSY HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider $6.3M
SELL UTHR EDGEMOND JAMES CFO AND TREASURER $5.9M
SELL CRWV McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer $1.6M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 10:47 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
CVNA 61.9% 3.1d -13.5% ELEVATED
UPST 33.4% 4.8d +17.9% ELEVATED
BYND 29.7% 4.0d -9.4% ELEVATED
AMC 22.4% 4.0d -6.1% ELEVATED
SMCI 19.7% 3.6d +2.7% ELEVATED
DNTH 19.5% 7.1d +13.5% ELEVATED
LQDA 17.2% 5.9d +3.5% ELEVATED
TERN 16.2% 9.1d -2.3% ELEVATED
Market Headlines
7 sources · 10:43 ET
Labor Market ‘Stable, With a Lot of Volatility,’ Economist Roth Says
BBG 1h ago
Labor volatility may boost safe-haven assets, impacting $TLT and $IEF.
BBG Treasury Bonds Fall on Strength in March Payrolls: Markets Wrap
Treasury bond decline affects $TLT and $SPX, signaling rate cut expectations shift.
 16h ago
BBG US Adds 178,000 Jobs in March, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.3%
Lower unemployment rate supports hawkish Fed stance, pressuring growth stocks.
 22m ago
BBG US Bonds Fall as Strong Jobs Data Undermines Fed Cut Outlook
Strong jobs data reduces likelihood of Fed rate cuts, affecting $SPX and $NDX.
 1h ago
FT Fund managers snap up bonds on growth threat from Iran war
Iran war fears drive bond buying, benefiting $GOVT and defensive sectors.
 10h ago
MW Stock futures and bitcoin slip, Treasury yields climb, as hot jobs report raises more questions about Fed rate cuts
Hot jobs report sparks yield surge, weighing on $SPX and $BTC-USD.
 1h ago
BBG Bond Traders Set Up for Jobs Data With Iran War Still Main Focus 18h ago
BBG NEC’s Hassett Sees Positive Momentum Behind Jobs Report 1h ago
Research Digest
10:46 ET
MU $366.24 -1.3% Bullish
Technology $413B P/E 3.7 β 1.61 SI 2.6% Target $525 Rev 196%
Micron Technology (MU) is experiencing increased attention due to its role in the AI storage market, with Jim Cramer noting that memory rivals, including MU, are sitting on a "gold mine" amid an AI storage shortage. MU's revenue growth is 196% and its forward P/E is 3.7, with an analyst target of $525. However, AI infrastructure costs are soaring, with enterprises reportedly underestimating expenses by 30% or more, posing a risk to MU's growth.
TIP Wingstop upgraded, Wix downgraded: Wall Street’s top analyst calls
BEN Jim Cramer Says Micron Technology, Other Memory Rivals Are Sitting On 'Gold Mine' Amid AI Storage Cr
24/ Investors Chasing AI Hardware Gains May Want to Rethink ARTY Before Adding More Exposure
SATS $128.68 +4.6% Bullish
Communication Services $37B P/E -87.6 β 1.00 SI 27.2% Target $130 Rev -4%
EchoStar (SATS) gained after announcing strategic spectrum deals and a stock swap with SpaceX, which removed it from the Russell Small Cap Comp Value Index. The company reported a Market Perform rating from Raymond James following its Q4 2025 results. However, a patent infringement lawsuit filed by Adeia against Dish Network, a peer company, could pose a risk to EchoStar's wireless business.
BAR Iridium, Viasat Stocks Surge. Why a Bid for a Satellite Rival Is Good News.
INS EchoStar (SATS) Strengthens Position with Strategic Spectrum Deals
SIM The Bull Case For EchoStar (SATS) Could Change Following Its SpaceX Stock Swap And Index Removal
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Earnings This Week
Apr 03 – Apr 17 · 10:47 ET
Ticker Date Exp. Move
JNJ Apr 14 ±2%
Investors will closely monitor Johnson & Johnson's upcoming earnings on April 14, as the stock has seen a 60% breakout, leaving some on Wall Street torn about its prospects.
JPM Apr 14 ±3%
JPMorgan Chase's stock may react to its upcoming earnings report on April 14, influenced by its AI and Apple Card tailwinds, as investors assess its performance.
Analyst Moves
10:47 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
NVDA Buy 66 / 4 / 1 2026-04-01
AMZN Buy 71 / 5 / 0 2026-04-01
WMT Buy 44 / 4 / 0 2026-04-01
AUGO Buy 11 / 1 / 0 2026-04-01
CNL Buy 10 / 1 / 0 2026-04-01
ARMN Buy 10 / 1 / 0 2026-04-01
MSFT Buy 59 / 6 / 0 2026-04-01
META Buy 64 / 8 / 0 2026-04-01
IPO Calendar
10:47 ET
Date Company Range Size
Apr 08 TMCR Metals Royalty Co Inc. — —
Apr 15 EMI Encore Medical, Inc. — $17M
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 10:47 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 1,292,919 507,570 785,349
1.55 		$655C 63,540 vol
QQQ 949,375 365,017 584,358
1.60 		$589C 41,116 vol
TSLA 543,197 290,847 252,350
0.87 		$380C 49,248 vol
NVDA 334,720 164,105 170,615
1.04 		$180C 44,855 vol
AMD 164,467 95,239 69,228
0.73 		$220C 14,152 vol
Income Plays
10:47 ET
VRT CSP Best Quality Very High · max 3% $100B · Earnings Feb 11 · Div 0.1%
$210P 42 DTE +25.7% ann. +19.8% OTM Δ 0.16 POP 84%
Vertiv Holdings (VRT) stock surged after earnings, with options traders currently pricing in potential gains to $210-$220 levels over the next 42 days.
AXTI CSP Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $3B · Earnings Feb 19
$45P 42 DTE +150.6% ann. +13.4% OTM Δ 0.29 POP 71%
AXT slips 3.4% as investors revisit dilution and China export-permit overhang, according to a report by Quiver Quantitative.
RVMD CSP Safest High · max 2% $20B · Earnings Feb 25
$80P 42 DTE +47.8% ann. +19.7% OTM Δ 0.22 POP 78%
Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) is advancing with its RAS(ON) platform and a global Phase 3 test in metastatic pancreatic cancer.
Portfolio Hedge
 SPY $656 · QQQ $585 · VIX 23.9
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
SPY Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
 $655P 55d 1 $18.71 $1,871 12.4%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
 $670P 55d 1 $24.84 $2,484 16.5%
Aggressive
β=1.10
 $645P 55d 2 $15.46 $3,092 20.5%
Scenario: 1× SPY $670P 55d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario SPY Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $623 110% $97,954
Correction -10% $590 94% $96,983
Bear leg -15% $558 88% $96,013
Crash -20% $525 85% $95,042
QQQ Puts
Profile Strike Exp Qty Prem Cost Ann %
Defensive
β=0.65
 $590P 55d 1 $22.51 $2,251 14.9%
Balanced ●
β=0.85
 $565P 75d 2 $17.01 $3,402 16.6%
Aggressive
β=1.10
 $580P 55d 2 $18.57 $3,714 24.6%
Scenario: 2× QQQ $565P 75d (β=0.85 portfolio)
Scenario QQQ Coverage NLV
Pullback -5% $556 43% $94,192
Correction -10% $526 90% $95,790
Bear leg -15% $497 106% $97,388
Crash -20% $468 114% $98,986
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:47 ET
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 03 (MTD) · Hit rate: 17/34 · Avg return: +0.4% · YTD: +3.9%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months
Return +57.3% Ann. 82.9% Sharpe 2.80 Max DD -9.6%
Win% 89% Alpha +73.5% SPY +7.0% $100K → $157,272
Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months
Total 2,373% Ann. 41.0% Sharpe 1.64 Max DD -12.7%
Win% 71% Alpha +30.3% SPY 159% $100K → $2,473,199
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
WMT 18.2% +0.8%
XOM 17.9% -0.1%
JNJ 17.1% -0.4%
CNL 7.4% -1.2%
AUGO 5.2% +0.3%
ARMN 4.9% -1.5%
EMEQ 3.5% -2.2%
AAOI 2.6% +20.3%
MU 2.4% -0.4%
LQDA 1.8% +0.6%
DNTH 1.7% +1.7%
GEV 1.6% +0.4%
TERN 1.3% -0.1%
BTSG 1.3% +2.5%
TBN 1.2% -2.8%
COST 0.9% +1.8%
GLD 0.9% -1.9%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
LLY 0.9% -2.0%
PGR 0.9% +1.0%
MUX 0.9% +0.4%
PSI 0.7% +0.5%
ANAB 0.6% +1.7%
TSLA 0.5% -5.4%
NVDA 0.5% +0.9%
AMZN 0.5% -0.4%
MSFT 0.5% +1.1%
META 0.5% -0.8%
AAPL 0.5% +0.1%
GOOGL 0.5% -0.5%
BRK.B 0.5% -0.2%
AVGO 0.5% +0.3%
JPM 0.5% -0.3%
MKOR 0.5% -2.5%
AGX 0.4% +0.7%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
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