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MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
April 02, 2026 · All times ET
Regime BEAR Day 25
Market Snapshot · 09:39 ET
S&P 500
645.48
-1.49%
Nasdaq
572.26
-2.06%
Dow
459.24
-1.34%
Russell 2k
245.10
-1.79%
VIX
27.65
+12.67%
20Y Bond
86.24
-0.02%
Gold
421.63
-3.70%
Silver
63.59
-6.68%
Oil
139.49
+12.41%
USD
27.88
+0.54%
CNN Fear & Greed
14 Extreme Fear
wk -1 · mo -20
AAII Survey 2026-04-01
▲ 33.6% / ▼ 51.4% / 15.0%
spread -17.8 · avg bull 33.0%
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bearish Sup: 629.28 Res: 657.57 RSI: 40.9
QQQ Trend: Bearish Sup: 555.60 Res: 588.38 RSI: 41.1
Econ Calendar
5 high-impact · Thu Apr 02 – Fri Apr 03 · as of 09:40 ET
Thu Apr 02
08:30 US Initial Jobless Claims — est. 212K, prev. 211K
Fri Apr 03
08:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.4%
08:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) — est. 65K, prev. -92K
08:30 US Unemployment Rate (Mar) — est. 4.4%, prev. 4.4%
09:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) — est. 51.1, prev. 51.7
Macro Snapshot
09:44 ET
Indicator Value Change
DXY 100.11 +0.46%
VIX/3M 1.11 Backwardation
BTC $65,804 -3.3%
ETH $2,019 -5.6%
ETH/BTC 0.0307
Sector Rotation · Today
09:43 ET
Energy
+3.14%
XLE
Cons. Staples
+0.48%
XLP
Utilities
+0.17%
XLU
Real Estate
-0.24%
XLRE
Health Care
-0.39%
XLV
Materials
-0.65%
XLB
Communication
-1.32%
XLC
Financials
-1.57%
XLF
Industrials
-1.95%
XLI
Cons. Discr.
-2.33%
XLY
Technology
-2.56%
XLK
From the Desk · BEAR Day 25 (prev. close)
“The data shows that the S&P 500 has now declined for 25 consecutive days in the BEAR regime, with today's -1.49% move taking the index to its lowest level in months. Worth watching is the divergence between surging US crude and tumbling bonds, with yields implied to rise on inflation angst even as the IMF says the Fed has little scope for interest-rate cuts this year.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
“Republicans fully support our Great Men and Women of Law Enforcement, maybe the word should be, LOVE! America thanks each and every one of our wonderful Police, Border Patrol, ICE, and others, for their work to protect our Cities, Towns, Streets and, indeed, our Country itself.Unlike Republicans, Democrats want to DEFUND the Police, Border Patrol, and all Immigration Enforcement. They want to allow Criminals, the Mentally Insane, and Lunatics from all over the World to come into our Country, totally unvetted and unchecked, putting Americans in serious danger.That’s why we are going forward to fund our incredible ICE Agents and Border Patrol through a process that doesn’t need Radical Left Democrat votes, and bypasses the Senate Filibuster (which should be repealed, IMMEDIATELY!), working in close conjunction with House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Leader John Thune. We are going to work as fast, and as focused, as possible to replenish funding for our Border and ICE Agents, and the Radical Left Democrats won’t be able to stop us. We will not allow them to hurt the families of these Great Patriots by defunding them. I am asking that the Bill be on my desk NO LATER than June 1st. Our Law Enforcement Officers and the American People should not have to wait until the Democrats see reason or, learn the hard way through the Polls. Hopefully, everyone will be voting REPUBLICAN for the Midterms. Through simple unification, Republicans can do this without the Democrats!In the meantime, we will continue to use funding from THE GREAT BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL, which is giving Record Tax Rebates to Citizens all over the Country, to ensure that ICE and Border Patrol Agents are paid ON TIME, and IN FULL, as we have been doing for them throughout the Democrat Shutdown. Immigration Enforcement will continue, and our Border will remain secure, with no Murderers, Drug Dealers, or Criminals of any kind entering our Country.The American People should use this opportunity to reflect on the tens of millions of Illegal Aliens, including many Violent Criminals such as Murderers, Rapists, Human Traffickers, Child Molesters, and more, that Joe Biden and his Far Left Liberal Democrat Cronies in Congress (led by Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer) invited and allowed into our Country for the four years before I took office. These Radical, Weak, and Incompetent Democrats have made clear that if they resume power, they will never again provide funding to secure our Border, or enforce our Immigration Laws. The Democrats are the Party of Open Borders for Criminals, Crime, Zero Immigration Enforcement, Defunding the Police, and Allowing the Worst of the Worst to have “Get Out of Jail Free” Cards. They want America to be OPEN AND AVAILABLE to Violent Criminals, Thugs, and Lowlifes, not our Great and Loving American Patriots. Don’t forget that in November. WIN THE MIDTERMS! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
20h ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
“Wow! Congratulations to Nissan, and Christian Meunier, Americas Chairman, on the tremendous success they are having in the U.S. They have moved most of their production to our great Country, largely because of Tariffs, and the results are AMAZING!!!”
1d ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
“In the Ballroom case, the Judge said we have to get Congressional approval. He is WRONG! Congressional approval has never been given on anything, in these circumstances, big or small, having to do with construction at the White House. In this case, even less so, because the Ballroom is being built with Private Donations, no Federal Taxpayer Money! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
“Birthright Citizenship has to do with the babies of slaves, not Chinese Billionaires who have 56 kids, all of whom “become” American Citizens. One of the many Great Scams of our time! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:43 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
SPY mixed 23
“Regard said my bear thesis aged like milk. Oil ripped 8% that night.”
WSB 994 pts · 5/5 subs
META bearish 16
“10k 0dte spx puts gain”
WSB 99 pts · 4/5 subs
GE bullish 16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 2003 pts · 3/5 subs
DELL mixed 16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 2003 pts · 3/5 subs
IBM mixed 16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 2003 pts · 2/5 subs
WISH mixed 12
“Wish it were an April Fools Joke”
WSB 546 pts · 5/5 subs
CAT bearish 11
“No One is Right Twice: The Problem With Market Timing”
STK 39 pts · 3/5 subs
MU mixed 10
“200k in puts, fuck your pump and fuck your calls”
WSB 1558 pts · 4/5 subs
Insider Wire
2146 Form 4s filed · 09:40 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-03-28 to 2026-04-02
Ticker Insider Value
SELL CRWV McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer $10.0M
SELL TSLA Wilson-Thompson Kathleen Director $9.3M
SELL HSY HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider $6.3M
SELL UTHR EDGEMOND JAMES CFO AND TREASURER $5.9M
SELL PBF Fedena James E. Senior Vice President $4.8M
SELL GOOGL WALKER JOHN KENT President, Global Affairs, CLO $2.5M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 09:44 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
UPST 33.4% 4.8d +17.9% ELEVATED
BYND 29.7% 4.0d -9.4% ELEVATED
AMC 22.4% 4.0d -6.1% ELEVATED
SMCI 19.7% 3.6d +2.7% ELEVATED
DNTH 19.5% 7.1d +13.5% ELEVATED
LQDA 17.2% 5.9d +3.5% ELEVATED
TERN 16.7% 9.1d -2.3% ELEVATED
GME 15.7% 12.8d -4.0% ELEVATED
Market Headlines
7 sources · 09:40 ET
IMF Says Fed Has Little Scope for Interest-Rate Cuts This Year
BBG 24m ago
Limits Fed's ability to ease policy, maintaining pressure on interest-rate sensitive sectors like Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE).
BBG US Bonds Fall as Trump’s Iran Threats Add to Inflation Angst
Rising inflation concerns boost yields, weighing on bond prices, specifically 10-year Treasury yields (TNX) and long-duration bonds.
10h ago
BBG Stocks and Bonds Tumble as US Crude Surges: Markets Wrap
Risk-off sentiment drives declines in equities (SPY) and bonds (AGG), with WTI crude (USO) surging above $60.
15h ago
FT World’s top energy traders wrongfooted in early days of Iran war 9h ago
BBG RBI Clampdown on Rupee Speculation Triggers Market Dislocation
Heightened currency volatility impacts emerging market assets, including Indian stocks (INDA) and bonds (iPath MSCI India Index ETN).
51m ago
FT SpaceX filing kicks off largest IPO process in history
Potential record-breaking IPO could draw attention away from fixed income and equities, benefiting cash (SHV) and short-term bonds.
16h ago
BBG US Economy: Jobless Claims Fall, Trade Deficit Widens Less Than Forecast 21m ago
BBG Apollo’s Zelter Says Private Credit Concerns Are Just Growing Pains 1h ago
Research Digest
09:43 ET
AGX $553.05 -3.0% Bullish
Composite 80 1M +23.3% 3M +82.4% 1Y +325.0% FLAT
Industrials $8B P/E 37.1 β 0.56 SI 4.3% Target $473 Rev 13%
Argan (AGX) surged 19.6% after reporting record backlog and strong FY 2026 results, with quarterly sales of $262.05 million and net income of $49.21 million, and full-year sales of $944.61 million and net income of $137.77 million. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 37.1 with a 13% revenue growth rate. Risk: high valuation may not be justified if growth slows.
ZAC 3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook Argan (AGX)
ZAC Are Construction Stocks Lagging Comfort Systems USA (FIX) This Year?
ZAC Company News for Mar 30, 2026
MRVL $101.65 -4.5% Bullish
Composite 59 1M +36.7% 3M +25.6% 1Y +70.3% FLAT
Technology $89B P/E 18.8 β 1.99 SI 4.6% Target $121 Rev 22%
Marvell Technology (MRVL) surged on a $2 billion deal with Nvidia to expand their technology partnership, focusing on AI system communication and scalability. MRVL has a forward P/E of 18.8, with a 22% revenue growth rate and a market capitalization of $89B. The market may be overlooking potential execution risks in the AI partnership.
GUR Nvidia and Marvell Team Up to Power Next Wave of AI
BEI NVIDIA Stock Rallied 8%, But 3 Signals Point to a Reversal
BEN Nvidia Makes Equity Investment In Marvell Technology, Deepens NVLink Fusion Partnership
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Earnings This Week
Apr 02 – Apr 16 · 09:44 ET
Ticker Date Exp. Move
JNJ Apr 14 N/A
Investors will closely watch Johnson & Johnson's upcoming earnings on April 14 to assess the company's progress following its recent re-rating and potential changes in market perception.
JPM Apr 14 N/A
As a holding in the SD50 portfolio, investors should watch JPM's upcoming earnings on Apr 14 for signs of resilience in its business given the uncertain macro environment.
Analyst Moves
09:44 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
NVDA Buy 66 / 4 / 1 2026-04-01
AMZN Buy 71 / 5 / 0 2026-04-01
WMT Buy 44 / 4 / 0 2026-04-01
AUGO Buy 11 / 1 / 0 2026-04-01
CNL Buy 10 / 1 / 0 2026-04-01
ARMN Buy 10 / 1 / 0 2026-04-01
MSFT Buy 59 / 6 / 0 2026-04-01
META Buy 64 / 8 / 0 2026-04-01
IPO Calendar
09:44 ET
Date Company Range Size
Apr 08 TMCR Metals Royalty Co Inc. — —
Apr 15 EMI Encore Medical, Inc. — $17M
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 09:44 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 2,235,620 885,646 1,349,974
1.52
$660C 106,377 vol
QQQ 1,607,737 541,094 1,066,643
1.97
$588C 59,081 vol
TSLA 684,164 349,547 334,617
0.96
$380C 45,269 vol
NVDA 498,582 281,032 217,550
0.77
$180C 81,889 vol
MU 451,086 269,148 181,938
0.68
$380C 25,574 vol
Income Plays
09:43 ET
PL CSP Best Quality Very High · max 3% $11B · Earnings Jun 03
$26P 15 DTE +70.2% ann. +14.3% OTM Δ 0.20 POP 80%
Planet Labs (PL) has a CSP Opportunity with a 26.0P strike price and 15DTE, offering a 70.2% annualized return.
AXTI CSP Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $2B · Earnings Apr 30
$40P 15 DTE +136.9% ann. +12.9% OTM Δ 0.24 POP 76%
AXT stock is down 3.4% due to investor concerns over dilution and China export-permit overhang, according to Quiver Quantitative.
EWY CSP Safest Very High · max 3% $9B · Div 135.0%
$95P 43 DTE +18.8% ann. +19.5% OTM Δ 0.16 POP 84%
EWY has dropped 10% recently, with some attributing the decline to a chip selloff rather than an oil shock, according to ETF.com.
MU CC Best Quality High · max 2% $388B · Earnings Jun 24 · Div 16.0%
$380C 43 DTE +52.4% ann. +9.8% OTM Δ 0.10 POP 90%
Micron stock is falling today due to mixed analyst opinions and possibly influenced by a recent Seeking Alpha article prompting investors to double down.
AXTI CC Craziest Return Low · max 1% $2B · Earnings Apr 30
$47C 22 DTE +209.3% ann. +5.0% OTM Δ 0.18 POP 82%
AXT stock is down 3.4% due to investor concerns over dilution and China export-permit overhang, according to Quiver Quantitative.
FIX CC Safest High · max 2% $49B · Earnings Apr 23 · Div 16.0%
$1580C 43 DTE +42.7% ann. +13.0% OTM Δ 0.05 POP 95%
Nike's stock is declining due to its ongoing struggles in China, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
Portfolio Hedge
SPY $646 · QQQ $572 · VIX 27.6
Layered put combos for a generic $100K portfolio · Near (30d) / Bridge-Core (60d) / Anchor-Tail (90d) · 5-8-12% OTM across three time horizons
SPY Hedge
Budget $11,383
Minimum viable hedge · Max loss: $11,383
Leg Strike OTM Exp Qty Prem Cost
Near $615P 5% 30d 1 $21.78 $2,178
Core $595P 8% 60d 2 $29.43 $5,886
Tail $570P 12% 90d 1 $33.19 $3,319
Scenario Price P&L ROI
Correction -7% $601 $-9,961 -88%
Bear leg -10% $581 $-5,303 -47%
Crash -15% $549 $+6,477 +57%
Black swan -25% $484 $+32,317 +284%
Balanced ● REC $27,779
Multi-layer protection · Max loss: $27,779
Leg Strike OTM Exp Qty Prem Cost
Near $615P 5% 30d 2 $21.78 $4,356
Bridge $615P 5% 60d 1 $32.75 $3,275
Core $595P 8% 60d 2 $29.43 $5,886
Anchor $595P 8% 90d 2 $38.12 $7,624
Tail $570P 12% 90d 2 $33.19 $6,638
Scenario Price P&L ROI
Correction -7% $601 $-23,513 -85%
Bear leg -10% $581 $-12,259 -44%
Crash -15% $549 $+14,531 +52%
Black swan -25% $484 $+72,671 +262%
QQQ Hedge
Budget $9,972
Minimum viable hedge · Max loss: $9,972
Leg Strike OTM Exp Qty Prem Cost
Near $545P 5% 30d 1 $19.25 $1,925
Core $525P 8% 60d 2 $25.57 $5,114
Tail $505P 12% 90d 1 $29.33 $2,933
Scenario Price P&L ROI
Correction -7% $532 $-8,668 -87%
Bear leg -10% $515 $-4,912 -49%
Crash -15% $486 $+5,548 +56%
Black swan -25% $429 $+28,428 +285%
Balanced ● REC $24,399
Multi-layer protection · Max loss: $24,399
Leg Strike OTM Exp Qty Prem Cost
Near $545P 5% 30d 2 $19.25 $3,850
Bridge $545P 5% 60d 1 $28.99 $2,899
Core $525P 8% 60d 2 $25.57 $5,114
Anchor $525P 8% 90d 2 $33.35 $6,670
Tail $505P 12% 90d 2 $29.33 $5,866
Scenario Price P&L ROI
Correction -7% $532 $-20,487 -84%
Bear leg -10% $515 $-11,259 -46%
Crash -15% $486 $+12,521 +51%
Black swan -25% $429 $+64,001 +262%
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 02 (MTD) · Hit rate: 9/34 · Avg return: -1.9% · YTD: +3.0%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months
Return +57.3% Ann. 82.9% Sharpe 2.80 Max DD -9.6%
Win% 89% Alpha +73.5% SPY +7.0% $100K → $157,272
Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months
Total 2,373% Ann. 41.0% Sharpe 1.64 Max DD -12.7%
Win% 71% Alpha +30.3% SPY 159% $100K → $2,473,199
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
WMT 18.2% +0.4%
XOM 17.9% +3.3%
JNJ 17.1% +1.2%
CNL 7.4% -5.8%
AUGO 5.2% -5.2%
ARMN 4.9% +0.0%
EMEQ 3.5% -5.1%
AAOI 2.6% +0.4%
MU 2.4% -7.0%
LQDA 1.8% +0.1%
DNTH 1.7% -1.3%
GEV 1.6% -2.6%
TERN 1.3% -0.1%
BTSG 1.3% -3.5%
TBN 1.2% +1.1%
COST 0.9% +1.3%
GLD 0.9% -3.7%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
LLY 0.9% -0.4%
PGR 0.9% +0.4%
MUX 0.9% -4.2%
PSI 0.7% -4.0%
ANAB 0.6% +1.9%
TSLA 0.5% -3.9%
NVDA 0.5% -2.4%
AMZN 0.5% -2.4%
MSFT 0.5% -1.1%
META 0.5% -3.0%
AAPL 0.5% -1.8%
GOOGL 0.5% -2.6%
BRK.B 0.5% -0.2%
AVGO 0.5% -3.5%
JPM 0.5% -1.8%
MKOR 0.5% -6.0%
AGX 0.4% -3.6%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
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