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Markets · Options · Signal
April 02, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 09:39 ET
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S&P 500
645.48
-1.49%
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Nasdaq
572.26
-2.06%
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Dow
459.24
-1.34%
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Russell 2k
245.10
-1.79%
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VIX
27.65
+12.67%
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20Y Bond
86.24
-0.02%
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Gold
421.63
-3.70%
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Silver
63.59
-6.68%
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Oil
139.49
+12.41%
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USD
27.88
+0.54%
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CNN Fear & Greed
14
Extreme Fear
wk -1 · mo -20
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AAII Survey 2026-04-01
▲ 33.6%
/
▼ 51.4%
/
15.0%
spread -17.8 · avg bull 33.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bearish |
Sup: 629.28 |
Res: 657.57 |
RSI: 40.9 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bearish |
Sup: 555.60 |
Res: 588.38 |
RSI: 41.1 |
|
Econ Calendar |
5 high-impact · Thu Apr 02 – Fri Apr 03 · as of 09:40 ET |
| Thu Apr 02 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 212K, prev. 211K |
| Fri Apr 03 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.4% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) — est. 65K, prev. -92K |
| 08:30 |
US |
Unemployment Rate (Mar) — est. 4.4%, prev. 4.4% |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) — est. 51.1, prev. 51.7 |
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| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| DXY |
100.11 |
+0.46% |
| VIX/3M |
1.11 |
Backwardation |
| BTC |
$65,804 |
-3.3% |
| ETH |
$2,019 |
-5.6% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0307 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
09:43 ET |
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Energy
+3.14%
XLE
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Cons. Staples
+0.48%
XLP
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Utilities
+0.17%
XLU
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Real Estate
-0.24%
XLRE
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Health Care
-0.39%
XLV
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Materials
-0.65%
XLB
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Communication
-1.32%
XLC
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Financials
-1.57%
XLF
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Industrials
-1.95%
XLI
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Cons. Discr.
-2.33%
XLY
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Technology
-2.56%
XLK
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From the Desk · BEAR Day 25 (prev. close)
“The data shows that the S&P 500 has now declined for 25 consecutive days in the BEAR regime, with today's -1.49% move taking the index to its lowest level in months. Worth watching is the divergence between surging US crude and tumbling bonds, with yields implied to rise on inflation angst even as the IMF says the Fed has little scope for interest-rate cuts this year.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“Republicans fully support our Great Men and Women of Law Enforcement, maybe the word should be, LOVE! America thanks each and every one of our wonderful Police, Border Patrol, ICE, and others, for their work to protect our Cities, Towns, Streets and, indeed, our Country itself.Unlike Republicans, Democrats want to DEFUND the Police, Border Patrol, and all Immigration Enforcement. They want to allow Criminals, the Mentally Insane, and Lunatics from all over the World to come into our Country, totally unvetted and unchecked, putting Americans in serious danger.That’s why we are going forward to fund our incredible ICE Agents and Border Patrol through a process that doesn’t need Radical Left Democrat votes, and bypasses the Senate Filibuster (which should be repealed, IMMEDIATELY!), working in close conjunction with House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Leader John Thune. We are going to work as fast, and as focused, as possible to replenish funding for our Border and ICE Agents, and the Radical Left Democrats won’t be able to stop us. We will not allow them to hurt the families of these Great Patriots by defunding them. I am asking that the Bill be on my desk NO LATER than June 1st. Our Law Enforcement Officers and the American People should not have to wait until the Democrats see reason or, learn the hard way through the Polls. Hopefully, everyone will be voting REPUBLICAN for the Midterms. Through simple unification, Republicans can do this without the Democrats!In the meantime, we will continue to use funding from THE GREAT BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL, which is giving Record Tax Rebates to Citizens all over the Country, to ensure that ICE and Border Patrol Agents are paid ON TIME, and IN FULL, as we have been doing for them throughout the Democrat Shutdown. Immigration Enforcement will continue, and our Border will remain secure, with no Murderers, Drug Dealers, or Criminals of any kind entering our Country.The American People should use this opportunity to reflect on the tens of millions of Illegal Aliens, including many Violent Criminals such as Murderers, Rapists, Human Traffickers, Child Molesters, and more, that Joe Biden and his Far Left Liberal Democrat Cronies in Congress (led by Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer) invited and allowed into our Country for the four years before I took office. These Radical, Weak, and Incompetent Democrats have made clear that if they resume power, they will never again provide funding to secure our Border, or enforce our Immigration Laws. The Democrats are the Party of Open Borders for Criminals, Crime, Zero Immigration Enforcement, Defunding the Police, and Allowing the Worst of the Worst to have “Get Out of Jail Free” Cards. They want America to be OPEN AND AVAILABLE to Violent Criminals, Thugs, and Lowlifes, not our Great and Loving American Patriots. Don’t forget that in November. WIN THE MIDTERMS! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
20h ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
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“Wow! Congratulations to Nissan, and Christian Meunier, Americas Chairman, on the tremendous success they are having in the U.S. They have moved most of their production to our great Country, largely because of Tariffs, and the results are AMAZING!!!”
1d ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
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“In the Ballroom case, the Judge said we have to get Congressional approval. He is WRONG! Congressional approval has never been given on anything, in these circumstances, big or small, having to do with construction at the White House. In this case, even less so, because the Ballroom is being built with Private Donations, no Federal Taxpayer Money! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
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“Birthright Citizenship has to do with the babies of slaves, not Chinese Billionaires who have 56 kids, all of whom “become” American Citizens. One of the many Great Scams of our time! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 09:43 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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SPY
mixed
23
“Regard said my bear thesis aged like milk. Oil ripped 8% that night.”
WSB 994 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
bearish
16
“10k 0dte spx puts gain”
WSB 99 pts · 4/5 subs
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GE
bullish
16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 2003 pts · 3/5 subs
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DELL
mixed
16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 2003 pts · 3/5 subs
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IBM
mixed
16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 2003 pts · 2/5 subs
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WISH
mixed
12
“Wish it were an April Fools Joke”
WSB 546 pts · 5/5 subs
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CAT
bearish
11
“No One is Right Twice: The Problem With Market Timing”
STK 39 pts · 3/5 subs
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MU
mixed
10
“200k in puts, fuck your pump and fuck your calls”
WSB 1558 pts · 4/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
2146 Form 4s filed · 09:40 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-03-28 to 2026-04-02
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Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$10.0M |
| SELL |
TSLA |
Wilson-Thompson Kathleen Director |
$9.3M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$6.3M |
| SELL |
UTHR |
EDGEMOND JAMES CFO AND TREASURER |
$5.9M |
| SELL |
PBF |
Fedena James E. Senior Vice President |
$4.8M |
| SELL |
GOOGL |
WALKER JOHN KENT President, Global Affairs, CLO |
$2.5M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 09:44 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
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| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
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| AMC |
22.4% |
4.0d |
-6.1% |
ELEVATED
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| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
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| DNTH |
19.5% |
7.1d |
+13.5% |
ELEVATED
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| LQDA |
17.2% |
5.9d |
+3.5% |
ELEVATED
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| TERN |
16.7% |
9.1d |
-2.3% |
ELEVATED
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| GME |
15.7% |
12.8d |
-4.0% |
ELEVATED
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Market Headlines |
7 sources · 09:40 ET |
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AGX
$553.05
-3.0%
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Bullish
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| Composite 80 |
1M +23.3% |
3M +82.4% |
1Y +325.0% |
FLAT |
| Industrials |
$8B |
P/E 37.1 |
β 0.56 |
SI 4.3% |
Target $473 |
Rev 13% |
Argan (AGX) surged 19.6% after reporting record backlog and strong FY 2026 results, with quarterly sales of $262.05 million and net income of $49.21 million, and full-year sales of $944.61 million and net income of $137.77 million. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 37.1 with a 13% revenue growth rate. Risk: high valuation may not be justified if growth slows.
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MRVL
$101.65
-4.5%
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Bullish
|
| Composite 59 |
1M +36.7% |
3M +25.6% |
1Y +70.3% |
FLAT |
| Technology |
$89B |
P/E 18.8 |
β 1.99 |
SI 4.6% |
Target $121 |
Rev 22% |
Marvell Technology (MRVL) surged on a $2 billion deal with Nvidia to expand their technology partnership, focusing on AI system communication and scalability. MRVL has a forward P/E of 18.8, with a 22% revenue growth rate and a market capitalization of $89B. The market may be overlooking potential execution risks in the AI partnership.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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Earnings This Week |
Apr 02 – Apr 16 · 09:44 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| JNJ |
Apr 14 |
N/A |
| Investors will closely watch Johnson & Johnson's upcoming earnings on April 14 to assess the company's progress following its recent re-rating and potential changes in market perception. |
| JPM |
Apr 14 |
N/A |
| As a holding in the SD50 portfolio, investors should watch JPM's upcoming earnings on Apr 14 for signs of resilience in its business given the uncertain macro environment. |
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-04-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
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2026-04-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| AUGO |
Buy |
11 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| ARMN |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
59 / 6 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 8 / 0
|
2026-04-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 08 |
TMCR
Metals Royalty Co Inc.
|
— |
— |
| Apr 15 |
EMI
Encore Medical, Inc.
|
— |
$17M |
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Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 09:44 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
2,235,620 |
885,646 |
1,349,974 |
1.52
|
$660C 106,377 vol |
| QQQ |
1,607,737 |
541,094 |
1,066,643 |
1.97
|
$588C 59,081 vol |
| TSLA |
684,164 |
349,547 |
334,617 |
0.96
|
$380C 45,269 vol |
| NVDA |
498,582 |
281,032 |
217,550 |
0.77
|
$180C 81,889 vol |
| MU |
451,086 |
269,148 |
181,938 |
0.68
|
$380C 25,574 vol |
|
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PL
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$11B
· Earnings Jun 03
|
| $26P |
15 DTE |
+70.2% ann. |
+14.3% OTM |
Δ 0.20 |
POP 80% |
|
| Planet Labs (PL) has a CSP Opportunity with a 26.0P strike price and 15DTE, offering a 70.2% annualized return. |
|
AXTI
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$2B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $40P |
15 DTE |
+136.9% ann. |
+12.9% OTM |
Δ 0.24 |
POP 76% |
|
| AXT stock is down 3.4% due to investor concerns over dilution and China export-permit overhang, according to Quiver Quantitative. |
|
EWY
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
|
$9B
· Div 135.0%
|
| $95P |
43 DTE |
+18.8% ann. |
+19.5% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
|
| EWY has dropped 10% recently, with some attributing the decline to a chip selloff rather than an oil shock, according to ETF.com. |
|
MU
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$388B
· Earnings Jun 24
· Div 16.0%
|
| $380C |
43 DTE |
+52.4% ann. |
+9.8% OTM |
Δ 0.10 |
POP 90% |
|
| Micron stock is falling today due to mixed analyst opinions and possibly influenced by a recent Seeking Alpha article prompting investors to double down. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$2B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $47C |
22 DTE |
+209.3% ann. |
+5.0% OTM |
Δ 0.18 |
POP 82% |
|
| AXT stock is down 3.4% due to investor concerns over dilution and China export-permit overhang, according to Quiver Quantitative. |
|
FIX
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$49B
· Earnings Apr 23
· Div 16.0%
|
| $1580C |
43 DTE |
+42.7% ann. |
+13.0% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| Nike's stock is declining due to its ongoing struggles in China, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $646 · QQQ $572 · VIX 27.6 |
Layered put combos for a generic $100K portfolio · Near (30d) / Bridge-Core (60d) / Anchor-Tail (90d) · 5-8-12% OTM across three time horizons
SPY Hedge
Minimum viable hedge · Max loss: $11,383
| Leg |
Strike |
OTM |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
| Near |
$615P |
5% |
30d |
1 |
$21.78 |
$2,178 |
| Core |
$595P |
8% |
60d |
2 |
$29.43 |
$5,886 |
| Tail |
$570P |
12% |
90d |
1 |
$33.19 |
$3,319 |
| Scenario |
Price |
P&L |
ROI |
| Correction -7% |
$601 |
$-9,961 |
-88% |
| Bear leg -10% |
$581 |
$-5,303 |
-47% |
| Crash -15% |
$549 |
$+6,477 |
+57% |
| Black swan -25% |
$484 |
$+32,317 |
+284% |
Multi-layer protection · Max loss: $27,779
| Leg |
Strike |
OTM |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
| Near |
$615P |
5% |
30d |
2 |
$21.78 |
$4,356 |
| Bridge |
$615P |
5% |
60d |
1 |
$32.75 |
$3,275 |
| Core |
$595P |
8% |
60d |
2 |
$29.43 |
$5,886 |
| Anchor |
$595P |
8% |
90d |
2 |
$38.12 |
$7,624 |
| Tail |
$570P |
12% |
90d |
2 |
$33.19 |
$6,638 |
| Scenario |
Price |
P&L |
ROI |
| Correction -7% |
$601 |
$-23,513 |
-85% |
| Bear leg -10% |
$581 |
$-12,259 |
-44% |
| Crash -15% |
$549 |
$+14,531 |
+52% |
| Black swan -25% |
$484 |
$+72,671 |
+262% |
QQQ Hedge
Minimum viable hedge · Max loss: $9,972
| Leg |
Strike |
OTM |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
| Near |
$545P |
5% |
30d |
1 |
$19.25 |
$1,925 |
| Core |
$525P |
8% |
60d |
2 |
$25.57 |
$5,114 |
| Tail |
$505P |
12% |
90d |
1 |
$29.33 |
$2,933 |
| Scenario |
Price |
P&L |
ROI |
| Correction -7% |
$532 |
$-8,668 |
-87% |
| Bear leg -10% |
$515 |
$-4,912 |
-49% |
| Crash -15% |
$486 |
$+5,548 |
+56% |
| Black swan -25% |
$429 |
$+28,428 |
+285% |
Multi-layer protection · Max loss: $24,399
| Leg |
Strike |
OTM |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
| Near |
$545P |
5% |
30d |
2 |
$19.25 |
$3,850 |
| Bridge |
$545P |
5% |
60d |
1 |
$28.99 |
$2,899 |
| Core |
$525P |
8% |
60d |
2 |
$25.57 |
$5,114 |
| Anchor |
$525P |
8% |
90d |
2 |
$33.35 |
$6,670 |
| Tail |
$505P |
12% |
90d |
2 |
$29.33 |
$5,866 |
| Scenario |
Price |
P&L |
ROI |
| Correction -7% |
$532 |
$-20,487 |
-84% |
| Bear leg -10% |
$515 |
$-11,259 |
-46% |
| Crash -15% |
$486 |
$+12,521 |
+51% |
| Black swan -25% |
$429 |
$+64,001 |
+262% |
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 02 (MTD) · Hit rate: 9/34 · Avg return: -1.9% · YTD: +3.0%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+57.3% |
Ann. |
82.9% |
Sharpe |
2.80 |
Max DD |
-9.6% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+73.5% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$157,272 |
| Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months |
| Total |
2,373% |
Ann. |
41.0% |
Sharpe |
1.64 |
Max DD |
-12.7% |
| Win% |
71% |
Alpha |
+30.3% |
SPY |
159% |
$100K → |
$2,473,199 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
18.2% |
+0.4% |
| XOM |
17.9% |
+3.3% |
| JNJ |
17.1% |
+1.2% |
| CNL |
7.4% |
-5.8% |
| AUGO |
5.2% |
-5.2% |
| ARMN |
4.9% |
+0.0% |
| EMEQ |
3.5% |
-5.1% |
| AAOI |
2.6% |
+0.4% |
| MU |
2.4% |
-7.0% |
| LQDA |
1.8% |
+0.1% |
| DNTH |
1.7% |
-1.3% |
| GEV |
1.6% |
-2.6% |
| TERN |
1.3% |
-0.1% |
| BTSG |
1.3% |
-3.5% |
| TBN |
1.2% |
+1.1% |
| COST |
0.9% |
+1.3% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
-3.7% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-0.4% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+0.4% |
| MUX |
0.9% |
-4.2% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
-4.0% |
| ANAB |
0.6% |
+1.9% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-3.9% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
-2.4% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
-2.4% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
-1.1% |
| META |
0.5% |
-3.0% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
-1.8% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
-2.6% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
-3.5% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
-1.8% |
| MKOR |
0.5% |
-6.0% |
| AGX |
0.4% |
-3.6% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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