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Markets · Options · Signal
April 01, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 17:26 ET
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S&P 500
655.23
+0.75%
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Nasdaq
583.99
+1.18%
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Dow
465.62
+0.52%
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Russell 2k
249.65
+0.67%
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VIX
24.54
-2.81%
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20Y Bond
86.46
+0.13%
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Gold
437.02
+1.56%
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Silver
67.99
-0.22%
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Oil
123.49
-2.95%
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USD
27.73
-0.18%
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CNN Fear & Greed
16
Extreme Fear
wk -2 · mo -25
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AAII Survey 2026-03-25
▲ 32.1%
/
▼ 49.8%
/
18.1%
spread -17.7 · avg bull 32.0%
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bearish |
Sup: 629.28 |
Res: 659.27 |
RSI: 46.0 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bearish |
Sup: 555.60 |
Res: 590.17 |
RSI: 46.5 |
|
Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Wed Apr 01 – Wed Apr 01 · as of 17:26 ET |
| Wed Apr 01 |
| 08:15 |
US |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) — est. 41K, prev. 66K |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.0% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.5%, prev. -0.1% |
| 09:45 |
US |
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) — est. 52.4, prev. 51.6 |
| 10:00 |
US |
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) — est. 52.3, prev. 52.4 |
| 10:00 |
US |
ISM Manufacturing Prices (Mar) — est. 74.0, prev. 70.5 |
| 10:30 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — est. 1.800M, prev. 6.926M |
| 21:00 |
US |
U.S. President Trump Speaks |
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| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
3.80% |
-0bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.32% |
+1bps |
| Spread |
+52bps |
Steepening |
| DXY |
99.57 |
-0.39% |
| VIX/3M |
0.99 |
Flat |
| HY OAS |
7.25% |
-0.17% |
| BTC |
$68,486 |
+0.4% |
| ETH |
$2,156 |
+2.5% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0315 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
17:29 ET |
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Industrials
+1.67%
XLI
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Technology
+1.51%
XLK
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Materials
+0.98%
XLB
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Health Care
+0.76%
XLV
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Cons. Discr.
+0.75%
XLY
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Utilities
+0.48%
XLU
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Communication
+0.34%
XLC
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Real Estate
+0.29%
XLRE
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Financials
+0.14%
XLF
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Cons. Staples
-0.63%
XLP
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Energy
-3.74%
XLE
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From the Desk · BEAR Day 24 (prev. close)
“The BEAR regime, now on day 24, shows resilience with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq leading gains at +0.75% and +1.18% respectively, despite last month's picks delivering a flat average return of +0.0% from 11 positive out of 33 trades. Worth watching is the divergence between safe-haven assets like gold and the equities rally, as government bonds and gold gain traction amid headlines on Iran war and potential rate cuts.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“Republicans fully support our Great Men and Women of Law Enforcement, maybe the word should be, LOVE! America thanks each and every one of our wonderful Police, Border Patrol, ICE, and others, for their work to protect our Cities, Towns, Streets and, indeed, our Country itself.Unlike Republicans, Democrats want to DEFUND the Police, Border Patrol, and all Immigration Enforcement. They want to allow Criminals, the Mentally Insane, and Lunatics from all over the World to come into our Country, totally unvetted and unchecked, putting Americans in serious danger.That’s why we are going forward to fund our incredible ICE Agents and Border Patrol through a process that doesn’t need Radical Left Democrat votes, and bypasses the Senate Filibuster (which should be repealed, IMMEDIATELY!), working in close conjunction with House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Leader John Thune. We are going to work as fast, and as focused, as possible to replenish funding for our Border and ICE Agents, and the Radical Left Democrats won’t be able to stop us. We will not allow them to hurt the families of these Great Patriots by defunding them. I am asking that the Bill be on my desk NO LATER than June 1st. Our Law Enforcement Officers and the American People should not have to wait until the Democrats see reason or, learn the hard way through the Polls. Hopefully, everyone will be voting REPUBLICAN for the Midterms. Through simple unification, Republicans can do this without the Democrats!In the meantime, we will continue to use funding from THE GREAT BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL, which is giving Record Tax Rebates to Citizens all over the Country, to ensure that ICE and Border Patrol Agents are paid ON TIME, and IN FULL, as we have been doing for them throughout the Democrat Shutdown. Immigration Enforcement will continue, and our Border will remain secure, with no Murderers, Drug Dealers, or Criminals of any kind entering our Country.The American People should use this opportunity to reflect on the tens of millions of Illegal Aliens, including many Violent Criminals such as Murderers, Rapists, Human Traffickers, Child Molesters, and more, that Joe Biden and his Far Left Liberal Democrat Cronies in Congress (led by Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer) invited and allowed into our Country for the four years before I took office. These Radical, Weak, and Incompetent Democrats have made clear that if they resume power, they will never again provide funding to secure our Border, or enforce our Immigration Laws. The Democrats are the Party of Open Borders for Criminals, Crime, Zero Immigration Enforcement, Defunding the Police, and Allowing the Worst of the Worst to have “Get Out of Jail Free” Cards. They want America to be OPEN AND AVAILABLE to Violent Criminals, Thugs, and Lowlifes, not our Great and Loving American Patriots. Don’t forget that in November. WIN THE MIDTERMS! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
4h ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
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“Wow! Congratulations to Nissan, and Christian Meunier, Americas Chairman, on the tremendous success they are having in the U.S. They have moved most of their production to our great Country, largely because of Tariffs, and the results are AMAZING!!!”
8h ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
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“In the Ballroom case, the Judge said we have to get Congressional approval. He is WRONG! Congressional approval has never been given on anything, in these circumstances, big or small, having to do with construction at the White House. In this case, even less so, because the Ballroom is being built with Private Donations, no Federal Taxpayer Money! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
22h ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
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“Birthright Citizenship has to do with the babies of slaves, not Chinese Billionaires who have 56 kids, all of whom “become” American Citizens. One of the many Great Scams of our time! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
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“The National Trust for Historic Preservation sues me for a Ballroom that is under budget, ahead of schedule, being built at no cost to the Taxpayer, and will be the finest Building of its kind anywhere in the World. I then get sued by them over the renovation of the dilapidated and structurally unsound former Kennedy Center, now, The Trump Kennedy Center (A show of Bipartisan Unity, a Republican and Democrat President!), where all I am doing is fixing, cleaning, running, and “sprucing up” a terribly maintained, for many years, Building, but a Building of potentially great importance. Yet, The National Trust for Historic Preservation, a Radical Left Group of Lunatics whose funding was stopped by Congress in 2005, is not suing the Federal Reserve for a Building which has been decimated and destroyed, inside and out, by an incompetent and possibly corrupt Fed Chairman. The once magnificent Building is BILLIONS over budget, may never be completed, and may never open. All of the beautiful walls inside have been ripped down, never to be built again, but the National “Trust” for Historic Preservation never did anything about it! Or, have they sued on Governor Gavin Newscum’s “RAILROAD TO NOWHERE” in California that is BILLIONS over Budget and, probably, will never open or be used. So, the White House Ballroom, and The Trump Kennedy Center, which are under budget, ahead of schedule, and will be among the most magnificent Buildings of their kind anywhere in the World, gets sued by a group that was cut off by Government years ago, but all of the many DISASTERS in our Country are left alone to die. Doesn’t make much sense, does it? President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
$SPY$TLTBanksCorporates
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 17:29 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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META
bearish
16
“2026 Q1 regarded gains”
WSB 61 pts · 5/5 subs
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GE
bullish
16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 1983 pts · 3/5 subs
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DELL
mixed
16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 1983 pts · 2/5 subs
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IBM
mixed
16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 1983 pts · 2/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
12
“spy puts”
WSB 95 pts · 5/5 subs
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FIX
mixed
12
“The Dow!!!”
SM 10029 pts · 4/5 subs
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MU
mixed
10
“200k in puts, fuck your pump and fuck your calls”
WSB 1505 pts · 4/5 subs
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NYT
bullish
10
“US FDA is expected to lift restriction on certain peptides, NYT reports”
WSB 1246 pts · 2/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
2336 Form 4s filed · 17:26 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-03-27 to 2026-04-01
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Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
AVGO |
SAMUELI HENRY Director |
$250.0M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$10.0M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$6.4M |
| SELL |
UTHR |
EDGEMOND JAMES CFO AND TREASURER |
$5.9M |
| SELL |
WLFC |
WILLIS CHARLES F IV Executive Chairman |
$2.7M |
| SELL |
GOOGL |
WALKER JOHN KENT President, Global Affairs, CLO |
$2.5M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 17:29 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
|
| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| AMC |
22.4% |
4.0d |
-6.1% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
|
| DNTH |
19.5% |
7.1d |
+13.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| LQDA |
17.2% |
5.9d |
+3.5% |
ELEVATED
|
| TERN |
16.7% |
9.1d |
-2.3% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
15.7% |
12.8d |
-4.0% |
ELEVATED
|
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Market Headlines |
7 sources · 17:26 ET |
|
| Composite 72 |
1M +10.5% |
3M +41.6% |
1Y +7.3% |
FLAT |
| Industrials |
$11B |
P/E -1535.5 |
β 1.96 |
SI 12.4% |
Target $34 |
Rev 41% |
Planet Labs (PL) trades at $27.89, with a 15.5% return over the past 30 days and 36.6% year to date, raising questions about whether the stock's premium is justified. A potential SpaceX IPO could draw attention to smaller space companies like PL, according to Motley Fool. The stock's high valuation and 12.4% short interest create tension, as the market may be mispricing the risk of a pullback.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
Earnings This Week |
Apr 01 – Apr 15 · 17:29 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| JNJ |
Apr 14 |
±1% |
| Investors will closely monitor Johnson & Johnson's upcoming earnings on April 14, as the stock's momentum may be influenced by its performance within the current market trends. |
| JPM |
Apr 14 |
±2% |
| JPMorgan Chase's upcoming earnings on April 14 will be closely watched for its performance in small business lending, amid its American Dream Initiative long-term push. |
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
|
2026-03-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
45 / 4 / 0
|
2026-03-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
67 / 5 / 1
|
2026-03-01 |
| CNL |
Buy |
10 / 1 / 0
|
2026-03-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
|
2026-03-01 |
| ARMN |
Buy |
9 / 1 / 0
|
2026-03-01 |
| META |
Buy |
65 / 7 / 0
|
2026-03-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
36 / 16 / 2
|
2026-03-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 01 |
HMH
HMH Holding Inc
|
— |
$266M |
| Apr 08 |
TMCR
Metals Royalty Co Inc.
|
— |
— |
| Apr 15 |
EMI
Encore Medical, Inc.
|
— |
$17M |
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 17:29 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
8,184,394 |
3,450,165 |
4,734,229 |
1.37
|
$658C 544,710 vol |
| QQQ |
4,457,196 |
1,745,894 |
2,711,302 |
1.55
|
$585C 281,021 vol |
| TSLA |
1,216,225 |
609,237 |
606,988 |
1.00
|
$380C 170,816 vol |
| NVDA |
632,677 |
380,029 |
252,648 |
0.66
|
$178C 180,207 vol |
| MU |
451,086 |
269,148 |
181,938 |
0.68
|
$380C 25,574 vol |
|
|
AXTI
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$3B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $40P |
16 DTE |
+119.8% ann. |
+15.5% OTM |
Δ 0.24 |
POP 76% |
|
| AXT Inc. (AXTI) stock is surging, reaching an all-time high as the first quarter ends, with reported annual returns of up to 124.4%. |
|
CYTK
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$8B
· Earnings May 06
|
| $60P |
16 DTE |
+178.7% ann. |
+10.3% OTM |
Δ 0.32 |
POP 68% |
|
| Cytokinetics' CEO sold 7,500 shares, valued at approximately $499,000, while still retaining a large stake in the company. |
|
STX
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
|
$95B
· Earnings May 05
· Div 76.0%
|
| $340P |
44 DTE |
+34.4% ann. |
+19.9% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
|
| Seagate Technology's stock, STX, has a reported 10b5-1 sale of shares by Mosley across January to March 2026, according to stocktitan.net. |
|
MU
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$415B
· Earnings Jun 24
· Div 18.0%
|
| $410C |
44 DTE |
+44.2% ann. |
+10.6% OTM |
Δ 0.09 |
POP 91% |
|
| Micron Technology's stock price target was slashed after a plunge, according to Investor's Business Daily, potentially impacting investor sentiment and stock movement. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$3B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $50C |
30 DTE |
+200.5% ann. |
+5.6% OTM |
Δ 0.20 |
POP 80% |
|
| AXT Inc. (AXTI) stock is surging, reaching an all-time high as the first quarter ends, with reported annual returns of up to 124.4%. |
|
UTHR
CC
Safest
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$25B
· Earnings Apr 29
|
| $650C |
44 DTE |
+10.3% ann. |
+13.0% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| United Therapeutics (UTHR) stock is up 11.5% following positive Phase 3 IPF data for nebulized Tyvaso, driving it to a 52-week high. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $655 · QQQ $584 · VIX 24.5 |
Layered put combos for a generic $100K portfolio · Near (30d) / Bridge-Core (60d) / Anchor-Tail (90d) · 5-8-12% OTM across three time horizons
SPY Hedge
Minimum viable hedge · Max loss: $2,763
| Leg |
Strike |
OTM |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
| Near |
$620P |
5% |
30d |
1 |
$5.75 |
$575 |
| Core |
$605P |
8% |
60d |
2 |
$7.42 |
$1,484 |
| Tail |
$575P |
12% |
90d |
1 |
$7.04 |
$704 |
| Scenario |
Price |
P&L |
ROI |
| Correction -7% |
$609 |
$-1,678 |
-61% |
| Bear leg -10% |
$590 |
$+3,387 |
+123% |
| Crash -15% |
$557 |
$+15,037 |
+544% |
| Black swan -25% |
$491 |
$+41,237 |
+1492% |
Multi-layer protection · Max loss: $7,268
| Leg |
Strike |
OTM |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
| Near |
$620P |
5% |
30d |
2 |
$5.75 |
$1,150 |
| Bridge |
$620P |
5% |
60d |
1 |
$9.90 |
$990 |
| Core |
$605P |
8% |
60d |
2 |
$7.42 |
$1,484 |
| Anchor |
$605P |
8% |
90d |
2 |
$11.18 |
$2,236 |
| Tail |
$575P |
12% |
90d |
2 |
$7.04 |
$1,408 |
| Scenario |
Price |
P&L |
ROI |
| Correction -7% |
$609 |
$-4,013 |
-55% |
| Bear leg -10% |
$590 |
$+8,082 |
+111% |
| Crash -15% |
$557 |
$+34,657 |
+477% |
| Black swan -25% |
$491 |
$+93,607 |
+1288% |
QQQ Hedge
Minimum viable hedge · Max loss: $3,401
| Leg |
Strike |
OTM |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
| Near |
$555P |
5% |
30d |
1 |
$7.25 |
$725 |
| Core |
$540P |
8% |
60d |
2 |
$8.96 |
$1,792 |
| Tail |
$515P |
12% |
90d |
1 |
$8.84 |
$884 |
| Scenario |
Price |
P&L |
ROI |
| Correction -7% |
$543 |
$-2,213 |
-65% |
| Bear leg -10% |
$526 |
$+2,419 |
+71% |
| Crash -15% |
$496 |
$+13,039 |
+383% |
| Black swan -25% |
$438 |
$+36,399 |
+1070% |
Multi-layer protection · Max loss: $8,795
| Leg |
Strike |
OTM |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
| Near |
$555P |
5% |
30d |
2 |
$7.25 |
$1,450 |
| Bridge |
$555P |
5% |
60d |
1 |
$11.89 |
$1,189 |
| Core |
$540P |
8% |
60d |
2 |
$8.96 |
$1,792 |
| Anchor |
$540P |
8% |
90d |
2 |
$12.98 |
$2,596 |
| Tail |
$515P |
12% |
90d |
2 |
$8.84 |
$1,768 |
| Scenario |
Price |
P&L |
ROI |
| Correction -7% |
$543 |
$-5,231 |
-59% |
| Bear leg -10% |
$526 |
$+5,785 |
+66% |
| Crash -15% |
$496 |
$+29,945 |
+340% |
| Black swan -25% |
$438 |
$+82,505 |
+938% |
|
|
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 01 (MTD) · Hit rate: 11/33 · Avg return: +0.0% · YTD: +3.4%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months |
| Return |
+57.3% |
Ann. |
82.9% |
Sharpe |
2.80 |
Max DD |
-9.6% |
| Win% |
89% |
Alpha |
+73.5% |
SPY |
+7.0% |
$100K → |
$157,272 |
| Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months |
| Total |
2,373% |
Ann. |
41.0% |
Sharpe |
1.64 |
Max DD |
-12.7% |
| Win% |
71% |
Alpha |
+30.3% |
SPY |
159% |
$100K → |
$2,473,199 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
18.2% |
-0.1% |
| XOM |
17.9% |
-0.5% |
| JNJ |
17.1% |
+0.4% |
| CNL |
7.4% |
-1.0% |
| AUGO |
5.2% |
-1.6% |
| EMEQ |
3.5% |
+0.0% |
| AAOI |
2.6% |
+0.7% |
| MU |
2.4% |
+0.7% |
| LQDA |
1.8% |
+1.4% |
| DNTH |
1.7% |
-0.3% |
| GEV |
1.6% |
+0.2% |
| TERN |
1.3% |
-0.2% |
| BTSG |
1.3% |
-0.7% |
| TBN |
1.2% |
+0.0% |
| COST |
0.9% |
+0.1% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
| LLY |
0.9% |
+0.2% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| PGR |
0.9% |
+0.3% |
| MUX |
0.9% |
+0.0% |
| PSI |
0.7% |
+0.5% |
| ANAB |
0.6% |
+1.9% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
+0.0% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
-0.0% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
+0.2% |
| META |
0.5% |
-0.0% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
+0.0% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
-0.0% |
| MKOR |
0.5% |
+0.0% |
| AGX |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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