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MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
April 01, 2026 · All times ET
Regime BEAR Day 24
Market Snapshot · 17:26 ET
S&P 500
655.23
+0.75%
Nasdaq
583.99
+1.18%
Dow
465.62
+0.52%
Russell 2k
249.65
+0.67%
VIX
24.54
-2.81%
20Y Bond
86.46
+0.13%
Gold
437.02
+1.56%
Silver
67.99
-0.22%
Oil
123.49
-2.95%
USD
27.73
-0.18%
CNN Fear & Greed
16 Extreme Fear
wk -2 · mo -25
AAII Survey 2026-03-25
▲ 32.1% / ▼ 49.8% / 18.1%
spread -17.7 · avg bull 32.0%
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bearish Sup: 629.28 Res: 659.27 RSI: 46.0
QQQ Trend: Bearish Sup: 555.60 Res: 590.17 RSI: 46.5
Econ Calendar
8 high-impact · Wed Apr 01 – Wed Apr 01 · as of 17:26 ET
Wed Apr 01
08:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) — est. 41K, prev. 66K
08:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.0%
08:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.5%, prev. -0.1%
09:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) — est. 52.4, prev. 51.6
10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) — est. 52.3, prev. 52.4
10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Mar) — est. 74.0, prev. 70.5
10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories — est. 1.800M, prev. 6.926M
21:00 US U.S. President Trump Speaks
Macro Snapshot
17:29 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 3.80% -0bps
10Y Yield 4.32% +1bps
Spread +52bps Steepening
DXY 99.57 -0.39%
VIX/3M 0.99 Flat
HY OAS 7.25% -0.17%
BTC $68,486 +0.4%
ETH $2,156 +2.5%
ETH/BTC 0.0315
Sector Rotation · Today
17:29 ET
Industrials
+1.67%
XLI
Technology
+1.51%
XLK
Materials
+0.98%
XLB
Health Care
+0.76%
XLV
Cons. Discr.
+0.75%
XLY
Utilities
+0.48%
XLU
Communication
+0.34%
XLC
Real Estate
+0.29%
XLRE
Financials
+0.14%
XLF
Cons. Staples
-0.63%
XLP
Energy
-3.74%
XLE
From the Desk · BEAR Day 24 (prev. close)
“The BEAR regime, now on day 24, shows resilience with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq leading gains at +0.75% and +1.18% respectively, despite last month's picks delivering a flat average return of +0.0% from 11 positive out of 33 trades. Worth watching is the divergence between safe-haven assets like gold and the equities rally, as government bonds and gold gain traction amid headlines on Iran war and potential rate cuts.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
“Republicans fully support our Great Men and Women of Law Enforcement, maybe the word should be, LOVE! America thanks each and every one of our wonderful Police, Border Patrol, ICE, and others, for their work to protect our Cities, Towns, Streets and, indeed, our Country itself.Unlike Republicans, Democrats want to DEFUND the Police, Border Patrol, and all Immigration Enforcement. They want to allow Criminals, the Mentally Insane, and Lunatics from all over the World to come into our Country, totally unvetted and unchecked, putting Americans in serious danger.That’s why we are going forward to fund our incredible ICE Agents and Border Patrol through a process that doesn’t need Radical Left Democrat votes, and bypasses the Senate Filibuster (which should be repealed, IMMEDIATELY!), working in close conjunction with House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Leader John Thune. We are going to work as fast, and as focused, as possible to replenish funding for our Border and ICE Agents, and the Radical Left Democrats won’t be able to stop us. We will not allow them to hurt the families of these Great Patriots by defunding them. I am asking that the Bill be on my desk NO LATER than June 1st. Our Law Enforcement Officers and the American People should not have to wait until the Democrats see reason or, learn the hard way through the Polls. Hopefully, everyone will be voting REPUBLICAN for the Midterms. Through simple unification, Republicans can do this without the Democrats!In the meantime, we will continue to use funding from THE GREAT BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL, which is giving Record Tax Rebates to Citizens all over the Country, to ensure that ICE and Border Patrol Agents are paid ON TIME, and IN FULL, as we have been doing for them throughout the Democrat Shutdown. Immigration Enforcement will continue, and our Border will remain secure, with no Murderers, Drug Dealers, or Criminals of any kind entering our Country.The American People should use this opportunity to reflect on the tens of millions of Illegal Aliens, including many Violent Criminals such as Murderers, Rapists, Human Traffickers, Child Molesters, and more, that Joe Biden and his Far Left Liberal Democrat Cronies in Congress (led by Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer) invited and allowed into our Country for the four years before I took office. These Radical, Weak, and Incompetent Democrats have made clear that if they resume power, they will never again provide funding to secure our Border, or enforce our Immigration Laws. The Democrats are the Party of Open Borders for Criminals, Crime, Zero Immigration Enforcement, Defunding the Police, and Allowing the Worst of the Worst to have “Get Out of Jail Free” Cards. They want America to be OPEN AND AVAILABLE to Violent Criminals, Thugs, and Lowlifes, not our Great and Loving American Patriots. Don’t forget that in November. WIN THE MIDTERMS! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
4h ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
“Wow! Congratulations to Nissan, and Christian Meunier, Americas Chairman, on the tremendous success they are having in the U.S. They have moved most of their production to our great Country, largely because of Tariffs, and the results are AMAZING!!!”
8h ago
$FXI$SPYAuto Sector
“In the Ballroom case, the Judge said we have to get Congressional approval. He is WRONG! Congressional approval has never been given on anything, in these circumstances, big or small, having to do with construction at the White House. In this case, even less so, because the Ballroom is being built with Private Donations, no Federal Taxpayer Money! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
22h ago
$SPYCorporatesSmall Caps
“Birthright Citizenship has to do with the babies of slaves, not Chinese Billionaires who have 56 kids, all of whom “become” American Citizens. One of the many Great Scams of our time! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
“The National Trust for Historic Preservation sues me for a Ballroom that is under budget, ahead of schedule, being built at no cost to the Taxpayer, and will be the finest Building of its kind anywhere in the World. I then get sued by them over the renovation of the dilapidated and structurally unsound former Kennedy Center, now, The Trump Kennedy Center (A show of Bipartisan Unity, a Republican and Democrat President!), where all I am doing is fixing, cleaning, running, and “sprucing up” a terribly maintained, for many years, Building, but a Building of potentially great importance. Yet, The National Trust for Historic Preservation, a Radical Left Group of Lunatics whose funding was stopped by Congress in 2005, is not suing the Federal Reserve for a Building which has been decimated and destroyed, inside and out, by an incompetent and possibly corrupt Fed Chairman. The once magnificent Building is BILLIONS over budget, may never be completed, and may never open. All of the beautiful walls inside have been ripped down, never to be built again, but the National “Trust” for Historic Preservation never did anything about it! Or, have they sued on Governor Gavin Newscum’s “RAILROAD TO NOWHERE” in California that is BILLIONS over Budget and, probably, will never open or be used. So, the White House Ballroom, and The Trump Kennedy Center, which are under budget, ahead of schedule, and will be among the most magnificent Buildings of their kind anywhere in the World, gets sued by a group that was cut off by Government years ago, but all of the many DISASTERS in our Country are left alone to die. Doesn’t make much sense, does it? President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
$SPY$TLTBanksCorporates
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 17:29 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
META bearish 16
“2026 Q1 regarded gains”
WSB 61 pts · 5/5 subs
GE bullish 16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 1983 pts · 3/5 subs
DELL mixed 16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 1983 pts · 2/5 subs
IBM mixed 16
“IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East”
WSB 1983 pts · 2/5 subs
SPY mixed 12
“spy puts”
WSB 95 pts · 5/5 subs
FIX mixed 12
“The Dow!!!”
SM 10029 pts · 4/5 subs
MU mixed 10
“200k in puts, fuck your pump and fuck your calls”
WSB 1505 pts · 4/5 subs
NYT bullish 10
“US FDA is expected to lift restriction on certain peptides, NYT reports”
WSB 1246 pts · 2/5 subs
Insider Wire
2336 Form 4s filed · 17:26 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-03-27 to 2026-04-01
Ticker Insider Value
SELL AVGO SAMUELI HENRY Director $250.0M
SELL CRWV McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer $10.0M
SELL HSY HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider $6.4M
SELL UTHR EDGEMOND JAMES CFO AND TREASURER $5.9M
SELL WLFC WILLIS CHARLES F IV Executive Chairman $2.7M
SELL GOOGL WALKER JOHN KENT President, Global Affairs, CLO $2.5M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 17:29 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
UPST 33.4% 4.8d +17.9% ELEVATED
BYND 29.7% 4.0d -9.4% ELEVATED
AMC 22.4% 4.0d -6.1% ELEVATED
SMCI 19.7% 3.6d +2.7% ELEVATED
DNTH 19.5% 7.1d +13.5% ELEVATED
LQDA 17.2% 5.9d +3.5% ELEVATED
TERN 16.7% 9.1d -2.3% ELEVATED
GME 15.7% 12.8d -4.0% ELEVATED
Market Headlines
7 sources · 17:26 ET
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven
FT 19h ago
Chinese bonds may outperform Treasuries as safe-haven demand rises, impacting $TLT and $SHY.
BBG Gold Extends Gains on Rate-Cut Bets and Hopes of War Nearing End
Rising gold prices ($GC=F) signal dovish Fed expectations, boosting gold miners like $GG and $KGC.
22h ago
BBG Stocks Extend Rally on Hopes of End to Iran War; SpaceX Eyes IPO
Risk-on sentiment lifts equities, but $SPY's rally may be short-lived in BEAR regime.
9h ago
FT Airlines in crisis mode as Iran war hits jet fuel supplies
Iran war threatens $DAL, $LUV, and $UAL as jet fuel supplies dwindle.
13h ago
FT High street banks could learn from Revolut’s fee bonanza 17h ago
FT SpaceX filing kicks off largest IPO process in history
$SPY's tech sector gets boost from potential $SPACE IPO, but BEAR regime may cap gains.
3h ago
FT Earnings forecasts up, stocks . . .  down 10h ago
BBG AI Boom, Energy Risks Shape M&A Landscape, Morgan Stanley Says 1h ago
Research Digest
17:29 ET
PL $30.71 +8.9% Bullish
Composite 72 1M +10.5% 3M +41.6% 1Y +7.3% FLAT
Industrials $11B P/E -1535.5 β 1.96 SI 12.4% Target $34 Rev 41%
Planet Labs (PL) trades at $27.89, with a 15.5% return over the past 30 days and 36.6% year to date, raising questions about whether the stock's premium is justified. A potential SpaceX IPO could draw attention to smaller space companies like PL, according to Motley Fool. The stock's high valuation and 12.4% short interest create tension, as the market may be mispricing the risk of a pullback.
ZAC Planet Labs Trades at a Premium: Should You Still Buy the Stock?
MOT A SpaceX IPO Could Open the Door for More Investment Into Smaller Space Companies Like Rocket Lab an
SIM Is Planet Labs (PL) Getting Too Hot After 7x Surge And Satellite Contract Buzz
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Earnings This Week
Apr 01 – Apr 15 · 17:29 ET
Ticker Date Exp. Move
JNJ Apr 14 ±1%
Investors will closely monitor Johnson & Johnson's upcoming earnings on April 14, as the stock's momentum may be influenced by its performance within the current market trends.
JPM Apr 14 ±2%
JPMorgan Chase's upcoming earnings on April 14 will be closely watched for its performance in small business lending, amid its American Dream Initiative long-term push.
Analyst Moves
17:29 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Period
AMZN Buy 71 / 5 / 0 2026-03-01
WMT Buy 45 / 4 / 0 2026-03-01
NVDA Buy 67 / 5 / 1 2026-03-01
CNL Buy 10 / 1 / 0 2026-03-01
MSFT Buy 60 / 6 / 0 2026-03-01
ARMN Buy 9 / 1 / 0 2026-03-01
META Buy 65 / 7 / 0 2026-03-01
AAPL Buy 36 / 16 / 2 2026-03-01
IPO Calendar
17:29 ET
Date Company Range Size
Apr 01 HMH HMH Holding Inc — $266M
Apr 08 TMCR Metals Royalty Co Inc. — —
Apr 15 EMI Encore Medical, Inc. — $17M
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 17:29 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 8,184,394 3,450,165 4,734,229
1.37
$658C 544,710 vol
QQQ 4,457,196 1,745,894 2,711,302
1.55
$585C 281,021 vol
TSLA 1,216,225 609,237 606,988
1.00
$380C 170,816 vol
NVDA 632,677 380,029 252,648
0.66
$178C 180,207 vol
MU 451,086 269,148 181,938
0.68
$380C 25,574 vol
Income Plays
17:29 ET
AXTI CSP Best Quality Very High · max 3% $3B · Earnings Apr 30
$40P 16 DTE +119.8% ann. +15.5% OTM Δ 0.24 POP 76%
AXT Inc. (AXTI) stock is surging, reaching an all-time high as the first quarter ends, with reported annual returns of up to 124.4%.
CYTK CSP Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $8B · Earnings May 06
$60P 16 DTE +178.7% ann. +10.3% OTM Δ 0.32 POP 68%
Cytokinetics' CEO sold 7,500 shares, valued at approximately $499,000, while still retaining a large stake in the company.
STX CSP Safest Very High · max 3% $95B · Earnings May 05 · Div 76.0%
$340P 44 DTE +34.4% ann. +19.9% OTM Δ 0.19 POP 81%
Seagate Technology's stock, STX, has a reported 10b5-1 sale of shares by Mosley across January to March 2026, according to stocktitan.net.
MU CC Best Quality Very High · max 3% $415B · Earnings Jun 24 · Div 18.0%
$410C 44 DTE +44.2% ann. +10.6% OTM Δ 0.09 POP 91%
Micron Technology's stock price target was slashed after a plunge, according to Investor's Business Daily, potentially impacting investor sentiment and stock movement.
AXTI CC Craziest Return Low · max 1% $3B · Earnings Apr 30
$50C 30 DTE +200.5% ann. +5.6% OTM Δ 0.20 POP 80%
AXT Inc. (AXTI) stock is surging, reaching an all-time high as the first quarter ends, with reported annual returns of up to 124.4%.
UTHR CC Safest Moderate · max 1.5% $25B · Earnings Apr 29
$650C 44 DTE +10.3% ann. +13.0% OTM Δ 0.05 POP 95%
United Therapeutics (UTHR) stock is up 11.5% following positive Phase 3 IPF data for nebulized Tyvaso, driving it to a 52-week high.
Portfolio Hedge
SPY $655 · QQQ $584 · VIX 24.5
Layered put combos for a generic $100K portfolio · Near (30d) / Bridge-Core (60d) / Anchor-Tail (90d) · 5-8-12% OTM across three time horizons
SPY Hedge
Budget $2,763
Minimum viable hedge · Max loss: $2,763
Leg Strike OTM Exp Qty Prem Cost
Near $620P 5% 30d 1 $5.75 $575
Core $605P 8% 60d 2 $7.42 $1,484
Tail $575P 12% 90d 1 $7.04 $704
Scenario Price P&L ROI
Correction -7% $609 $-1,678 -61%
Bear leg -10% $590 $+3,387 +123%
Crash -15% $557 $+15,037 +544%
Black swan -25% $491 $+41,237 +1492%
Balanced ● REC $7,268
Multi-layer protection · Max loss: $7,268
Leg Strike OTM Exp Qty Prem Cost
Near $620P 5% 30d 2 $5.75 $1,150
Bridge $620P 5% 60d 1 $9.90 $990
Core $605P 8% 60d 2 $7.42 $1,484
Anchor $605P 8% 90d 2 $11.18 $2,236
Tail $575P 12% 90d 2 $7.04 $1,408
Scenario Price P&L ROI
Correction -7% $609 $-4,013 -55%
Bear leg -10% $590 $+8,082 +111%
Crash -15% $557 $+34,657 +477%
Black swan -25% $491 $+93,607 +1288%
QQQ Hedge
Budget $3,401
Minimum viable hedge · Max loss: $3,401
Leg Strike OTM Exp Qty Prem Cost
Near $555P 5% 30d 1 $7.25 $725
Core $540P 8% 60d 2 $8.96 $1,792
Tail $515P 12% 90d 1 $8.84 $884
Scenario Price P&L ROI
Correction -7% $543 $-2,213 -65%
Bear leg -10% $526 $+2,419 +71%
Crash -15% $496 $+13,039 +383%
Black swan -25% $438 $+36,399 +1070%
Balanced ● REC $8,795
Multi-layer protection · Max loss: $8,795
Leg Strike OTM Exp Qty Prem Cost
Near $555P 5% 30d 2 $7.25 $1,450
Bridge $555P 5% 60d 1 $11.89 $1,189
Core $540P 8% 60d 2 $8.96 $1,792
Anchor $540P 8% 90d 2 $12.98 $2,596
Tail $515P 12% 90d 2 $8.84 $1,768
Scenario Price P&L ROI
Correction -7% $543 $-5,231 -59%
Bear leg -10% $526 $+5,785 +66%
Crash -15% $496 $+29,945 +340%
Black swan -25% $438 $+82,505 +938%
April 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Apr 01 – Apr 01 (MTD) · Hit rate: 11/33 · Avg return: +0.0% · YTD: +3.4%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 9 months
Return +57.3% Ann. 82.9% Sharpe 2.80 Max DD -9.6%
Win% 89% Alpha +73.5% SPY +7.0% $100K → $157,272
Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-03 · 112 months
Total 2,373% Ann. 41.0% Sharpe 1.64 Max DD -12.7%
Win% 71% Alpha +30.3% SPY 159% $100K → $2,473,199
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
WMT 18.2% -0.1%
XOM 17.9% -0.5%
JNJ 17.1% +0.4%
CNL 7.4% -1.0%
AUGO 5.2% -1.6%
EMEQ 3.5% +0.0%
AAOI 2.6% +0.7%
MU 2.4% +0.7%
LQDA 1.8% +1.4%
DNTH 1.7% -0.3%
GEV 1.6% +0.2%
TERN 1.3% -0.2%
BTSG 1.3% -0.7%
TBN 1.2% +0.0%
COST 0.9% +0.1%
GLD 0.9% -0.2%
LLY 0.9% +0.2%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
PGR 0.9% +0.3%
MUX 0.9% +0.0%
PSI 0.7% +0.5%
ANAB 0.6% +1.9%
TSLA 0.5% -0.1%
NVDA 0.5% +0.0%
AMZN 0.5% -0.0%
MSFT 0.5% +0.2%
META 0.5% -0.0%
AAPL 0.5% -0.1%
GOOGL 0.5% -0.1%
BRK.B 0.5% +0.0%
AVGO 0.5% -0.2%
JPM 0.5% -0.0%
MKOR 0.5% +0.0%
AGX 0.4% -0.2%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
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