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MOS
Markets · Options · Signal
March 31, 2026 · All times ET
Regime BEAR Day 20
Market Snapshot · 10:56 ET
S&P 500
638.14
+0.98%
Nasdaq
564.32
+1.08%
Dow
454.86
+0.62%
Russell 2k
242.38
+1.15%
VIX
27.54
-10.03%
20Y Bond
86.69
-0.10%
Gold
422.24
+1.85%
Silver
66.14
+4.12%
Oil
130.07
+0.19%
USD
27.88
-0.36%
P/C Ratio: 1.20
CNN Fear & Greed
13 Extreme Fear
wk -5 · mo -28
AAII Survey 2026-03-25
▲ 32.1% / ▼ 49.8% / 18.1%
spread -17.7 · avg bull 32.0%
Key Technical Levels
SPY Trend: Bearish Sup: 629.28 Res: 660.10 RSI: 34.0
QQQ Trend: Bearish Sup: 555.60 Res: 590.85 RSI: 34.3
Futures
10:59 ET
/ES
$6,463.25
+1.2% +75.00
/NQ
$23,458.25
+1.4% +318.50
/YM
$45,806
+0.8% +341
/RTY
$2,461.60
+1.4% +33.40
/GC
$4,633.40
+2.4% +107.40
/SI
$73.665
+4.8% +3.341
/CL
$104.08
+1.2% +1.20
/ZN
$110.969
+0.1% +0.156
/ZB
$113.531
+0.0% +0.031
/BTC
$67,090
+0.6% +415
Econ Calendar
8 high-impact · Tue Mar 31 – Wed Apr 01 · as of 10:56 ET
Tue Mar 31
02:00 GB GDP (QoQ) (Q4) — est. 0.1%, prev. 0.1%
02:00 GB GDP (YoY) (Q4) — est. 1.0%, prev. 1.2%
05:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Mar) — est. 2.6%, prev. 1.9%
09:45 US Chicago PMI (Mar) — est. 54.8, prev. 57.7
10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) — est. 87.8, prev. 91.0
10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Feb) — est. 6.890M, prev. 7.240M
Wed Apr 01
08:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) — est. 41K, prev. 63K
08:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.0%
Macro Snapshot
10:59 ET
Indicator Value Change
2Y Yield 3.80% +0bps
10Y Yield 4.33% -1bps
Spread +53bps Flattening
DXY 100.13 -0.38%
VIX/3M 1.02 Flat
HY OAS 7.42% -0.06%
BTC $66,503 -0.3%
ETH $2,040 +0.8%
ETH/BTC 0.0307
Sector Rotation · Today
10:59 ET
Technology
+1.57%
XLK
Industrials
+1.26%
XLI
Energy
+1.23%
XLE
Cons. Discr.
+1.19%
XLY
Communication
+0.88%
XLC
Health Care
+0.63%
XLV
Materials
+0.58%
XLB
Real Estate
+0.46%
XLRE
Financials
+0.39%
XLF
Cons. Staples
-0.85%
XLP
Utilities
-1.37%
XLU
From the Desk · BEAR Day 20 (prev. close)
“The BEAR regime continues on day 20, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up slightly over the past day, though last month's picks remain mired in a 3/35 positive record with an average return of -9.5%. Worth watching is the contrast between Brent crude's record monthly price rise and Barclays' prediction of growing Treasury market troubles that may require bailouts.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
“Melania and I are pleased to announce that Their Majesties, the King and Queen of the United Kingdom, will visit the United States for a Historic State Visit from April 27-30th, which will include a beautiful Banquet Dinner at the White House on the evening of April 28th. This momentous occasion will be even more special this year, as we commemorate the 250th Anniversary of our Great Country. I look forward to spending time with the King, whom I greatly respect. It will be TERRIFIC!DONALD J. TRUMPPRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA”
1h ago
“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT”
3h ago
$USO$XLEDefenseEnergy Sector
“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1d ago
$USO$XLEDefenseEnergy Sector
“Birthright Citizenship is not about rich people from China, and the rest of the World, who want their children, and hundreds of thousands more, FOR PAY, to ridiculously become citizens of the United States of America. It is about the BABIES OF SLAVES! We are the only Country in the World that dignifies this subject with even discussion. Look at the dates of this long ago legislation - THE EXACT END OF THE CIVIL WAR! The World is getting rich selling citizenships to our Country, while at the same time laughing at how STUPID our U.S. Court System has become (TARIFFS!). “Dumb Judges and Justices will not a great Country make!””
1d ago
$BABA$FXI$KWEB$SPY
Crowd Signal
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:59 ET
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
MSFT mixed 29
“The "AI is dead because oil" guy has clearly never read an income statement”
WSB 2128 pts · 5/5 subs
SPY mixed 19
“How did WSB's stock picks of 2026 perform in Q1”
WSB 520 pts · 5/5 subs
NVDA mixed 11
“The "AI is dead because oil" guy has clearly never read an income statement”
WSB 2128 pts · 5/5 subs
QQQ mixed 10
“The entire AI play, and most US stocks are dead”
WSB 7248 pts · 5/5 subs
LNG mixed 10
“How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out”
WSB 2682 pts · 3/5 subs
AMC bearish 10
“YOLO my life savings”
WSB 1124 pts
FIX mixed 10
“Inflation - Why the Iran War Will Impact CPI (a follow up)”
STK 0 pts · 4/5 subs
TSLA mixed 9
“How did WSB's stock picks of 2026 perform in Q1”
WSB 520 pts · 5/5 subs
Insider Wire
1549 Form 4s filed · 10:56 ET
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-03-26 to 2026-03-31
Ticker Insider Value
SELL AVGO SAMUELI HENRY Director $250.0M
SELL HSY HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider $6.4M
SELL METC Lawrence Bryan H. Insider $5.8M
SELL LUNR Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed Director $5.3M
SELL WLFC WILLIS CHARLES F IV Executive Chairman $2.7M
SELL ANAB Faga Daniel President, CEO $1.1M
Short Interest Monitor
25 scanned · 10:59 ET
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
Ticker SI % DTC MoM Squeeze
UPST 33.4% 4.8d +17.9% ELEVATED
BYND 29.7% 4.0d -9.4% ELEVATED
AMC 22.4% 4.0d -6.1% ELEVATED
SMCI 19.7% 3.6d +2.7% ELEVATED
TERN 16.7% 9.1d -2.3% ELEVATED
GME 15.7% 12.8d -4.0% ELEVATED
AAOI 13.7% 1.0d -3.0% LOW
RIVN 13.6% 4.4d +1.6% MODERATE
Market Headlines
7 sources · 10:56 ET
US Junk Bonds Headed for Worst Quarterly Returns Since 2022
BBG 1h ago
High-yield bond weakness signals potential equity downside, impacting sectors like Energy and Retail.
BBG Private Equity Racks Up $94 Billion Debt in 2025 to Fund Payouts
Private equity debt binge may foreshadow credit market stress, affecting leveraged buyouts and LBO-heavy sectors.
 1h ago
FT Brent crude on course for largest monthly price rise on record
Soaring Brent crude prices could accelerate stagflation, hurting Consumer Staples and boosting Energy stocks.
 3h ago
BBG Barclays Predicts Growing Treasury Market Will Need Bailouts
Treasury market bailouts may become necessary, influencing US interest rates and USD liquidity.
 1h ago
FT Inflation worries become growth worries
Growth concerns arise as inflation worries intensify, potentially shifting focus from rate hikes to recession risks.
 8h ago
FT Distressed-debt funds target private credit downturn as ‘greatest opportunity’ since 2008
Distressed-debt funds positioning for private credit downturn may indicate severe economic contraction ahead.
 19h ago
FT Qatar-backed US LNG plant starts production as Iran war hits global supply 22h ago
BBG Brent Oil Set for Record Monthly Rally While Trump Mulls War End 16h ago
Research Digest
10:59 ET
DELL $157.74 -3.5% Bearish
Composite 63 1M +7.2% 3M +29.2% 1Y +78.4% FLAT
Dell's stock fell amid a broader market decline triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. No specific news or catalysts were mentioned for Dell. The market is currently pricing in CSP opportunities with 20-26% annual returns.
YAH Dell, GE Aerospace: Only one has 'one of the worst setups' possible
BBG ‘Uninvestable’ Super Micro sends investors racing to the exits
THE Western Digital upgraded, PayPal initiated: Wall Street's top analyst calls
GSAT $64.66 +3.7% Bullish
Composite 46 1M -0.3% 3M +3.1% 1Y +190.5% DOWN
Globalstar (GSAT) shares surged 10.3% in the last session, driven by increased trading volume. The stock's recent movement follows a trend of earnings estimate revisions, although this may not translate into further price increases. The market may be mispricing the risk of geopolitical tensions impacting the telecom sector.
STO Mirion, Globalstar, Knowles, Stride, and Driven Brands Shares Plummet, What You Need To Know
STO Spotting Winners: Globalstar (NASDAQ:GSAT) And Telecommunication Services Stocks In Q4
MT RBC Keeps MDA Space's Outperform Rating, C$50 Price Target
APGE $82.29 +4.2% Bullish
Composite 62 1M +11.0% 3M +3.1% 1Y +98.2% UP
Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) surged 17.8% after completing a $403 million follow-on equity offering, fueled by positive 52-week Phase 2 data for its atopic dermatitis drug candidate, zumilokibart. The offering priced 5,750,000 common shares at $70.00 each. However, APGE's CEO recently sold 20,000 shares, potentially signaling a peak in the stock's rally.
SIM Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) Is Up 17.8% After $403 Million Follow-On Tied To Zumilokibart Data
MOT Apogee CEO Sells 20,000 Shares as Stock Surges Nearly 100% in a Year, but Here's What Really Matters
ZAC APGE Stock Up as Skin Disease Drug Shows Sustained 52-Week Efficacy
Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
Earnings This Week
Mar 31 – Apr 14 · 10:59 ET
Ticker Date Exp. Move
TERN <0d Mar 31 ☽ N/A
Investors will watch Terns Pharmaceuticals' upcoming earnings on March 31 for updates on its financials following a significant investment and a proposed acquisition by Merck for $6.7 billion.
JNJ Apr 14 N/A
Johnson & Johnson's stock performance has been strong, surging 60%, and investors will likely scrutinize its upcoming earnings on April 14 in the context of this momentum.
JPM Apr 14 N/A
JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) upcoming earnings on April 14 will be closely watched for signs of strength in its growth investing arm, amid recent additions to its team.
Analyst Moves
10:59 ET
Ticker Rating Buy / Hold / Sell Target
AMZN Buy 71 / 5 / 0 —
WMT Buy 45 / 4 / 0 —
NVDA Buy 67 / 5 / 1 —
MU Buy 49 / 3 / 2 —
MSFT Buy 60 / 6 / 0 —
META Buy 65 / 7 / 0 —
AAOI Buy 9 / 4 / 0 —
AAPL Buy 36 / 16 / 2 —
IPO Calendar
10:59 ET
Date Company Range Size
Apr 01 HMH HMH Holding Inc — $266M
Apr 08 TMCR Metals Royalty Co Inc. — —
Unusual Options Volume
15 scanned · 10:59 ET
Ticker Total Vol Calls Puts P/C Hottest Strike
SPY 1,902,366 864,605 1,037,761
1.20 		$642C 102,889 vol
QQQ 1,102,275 505,749 596,526
1.18 		$568C 58,841 vol
TSLA 268,759 162,272 106,487
0.66 		$365C 38,619 vol
NVDA 234,568 138,643 95,925
0.69 		$170C 56,798 vol
MU 150,203 83,422 66,781
0.80 		$350C 8,974 vol
Income Plays
10:59 ET
TSEM CSP Best Quality Very High · max 3% $19B · Earnings Feb 11
$140P 17 DTE +42.9% ann. +16.0% OTM Δ 0.16 POP 84%
Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) shares are down 7.8% and have had a parabolic move in the last few weeks, prompting Jim Cramer to suggest taking profits.
LQDA CSP Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $3B · Earnings Mar 05
$32P 17 DTE +198.2% ann. +12.2% OTM Δ 0.30 POP 70%
The Chief Commercial Officer of Liquidia sold 80,000 shares for $2.8M, potentially indicating a change in insider sentiment towards LQDA stock.
CLMT CSP Safest High · max 2% $3B · Earnings Feb 27
$29P 45 DTE +19.6% ann. +19.9% OTM Δ 0.16 POP 84%
HC Wainwright raised its price target for CLMT to $60 with a Buy rating, contributing to the stock's 6-day winning streak.
MU CC Best Quality Very High · max 3% $364B · Earnings Mar 18 · Div 0.2%
$360C 45 DTE +47.6% ann. +10.2% OTM Δ 0.09 POP 91%
Wall Street's decreased excitement about Micron stock is driving MU right now, according to a report from 24/7 Wall St.
LQDA CC Craziest Return Moderate · max 1.5% $3B · Earnings Mar 05
$40C 31 DTE +176.9% ann. +8.3% OTM Δ 0.10 POP 90%
The Chief Commercial Officer of Liquidia sold 80,000 shares for $2.8M, potentially indicating a change in insider sentiment towards LQDA stock.
FN CC Safest High · max 2% $18B · Earnings Feb 02
$570C 45 DTE +59.4% ann. +13.2% OTM Δ 0.05 POP 95%
Fabrinet's stock has jumped 25% in a month, sparking questions about whether there is more room for growth, according to Yahoo Finance.
March 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Mar 01 – Mar 31 (MTD) · Hit rate: 3/35 · Avg return: -9.5% · YTD: +1.8%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
 
Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 8 months
Return +75.0% Ann. 131.5% Sharpe 6.62 Max DD 0.0%
Win% 100% Alpha +111.5% SPY +12.9% $100K → $174,982
Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-02 · 111 months
Total 2,617% Ann. 42.9% Sharpe 1.71 Max DD -12.8%
Win% 72% Alpha +31.4% SPY 173% $100K → $2,716,908
Growth of $100K — SD50 Portfolio vs benchmarks
Chart not visible? View on web
Ticker Wt% Return
WMT 22.7% -3.0%
JNJ 16.7% -2.0%
SLVR 14.2% -29.9%
MU 13.2% -21.8%
XOM 3.0% +12.8%
AAOI 2.6% -19.7%
AHR 2.4% -10.9%
EMEQ 2.4% -14.9%
CNL 2.4% -17.2%
LAR 1.9% -17.1%
TERN 1.8% +25.6%
NATO 1.7% -14.1%
GAU 1.3% -32.1%
FOWF 1.2% -10.3%
GLD 0.9% -13.8%
LLY 0.9% -10.6%
PGR 0.9% -7.4%
COST 0.9% -1.1%
 
Ticker Wt% Return
MUX 0.9% -30.8%
ANAB 0.6% +1.4%
IDVZ 0.6% -4.3%
NVDA 0.5% -7.0%
AMZN 0.5% -1.9%
TSLA 0.5% -10.3%
BRK.B 0.5% -1.0%
META 0.5% -15.5%
AAPL 0.5% -6.6%
JPM 0.5% -2.9%
AVGO 0.5% -5.4%
GOOGL 0.5% -8.4%
MSFT 0.5% -8.8%
NUKZ 0.5% -14.0%
SHLD 0.4% -10.0%
SPHR 0.4% -4.0%
TEKX 0.4% -15.7%
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MOS · EST. 2025 · NEW YORK
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