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Markets · Options · Signal
March 30, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 02:49 ET
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S&P 500
630.54
-0.23%
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Nasdaq
556.04
-1.16%
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Dow
451.25
-0.18%
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Russell 2k
238.60
-0.42%
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VIX
30.61
-1.42%
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20Y Bond
86.52
+1.03%
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Gold
414.43
-0.04%
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Silver
63.33
-0.30%
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Oil
132.47
+2.03%
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USD
27.98
-0.00%
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P/C Ratio: 1.16
wk -9 · mo -32
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bearish |
Sup: 629.28 |
Res: 662.08 |
RSI: 27.5 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bearish |
Sup: 555.60 |
Res: 592.64 |
RSI: 28.7 |
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/ES
$6,430.50
+0.7% +42.25
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/NQ
$23,277.50
+0.6% +137.75
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/YM
$45,808
+0.8% +343
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/RTY
$2,456.40
+1.2% +28.20
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/GC
$4,586.00
+1.3% +60.00
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/SI
$72.145
+2.6% +1.821
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/CL
$103.00
+0.1% +0.12
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/ZN
$110.922
+0.1% +0.109
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/ZB
$113.625
+0.1% +0.125
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/BTC
$67,535
+1.3% +860
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Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Mon Mar 30 – Tue Mar 31 · as of 02:49 ET |
| Mon Mar 30 |
| 08:00 |
DE |
German CPI (MoM) (Mar) — est. 1.1%, prev. 0.2% |
| 10:30 |
US |
Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
| Tue Mar 31 |
| 02:00 |
GB |
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) — est. 0.1%, prev. 0.1% |
| 02:00 |
GB |
GDP (YoY) (Q4) — est. 1.0%, prev. 1.2% |
| 05:00 |
EU |
CPI (YoY) (Mar) — est. 2.6%, prev. 1.9% |
| 09:45 |
US |
Chicago PMI (Mar) — est. 54.8, prev. 57.7 |
| 10:00 |
US |
CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) — est. 87.8, prev. 91.2 |
| 10:00 |
US |
JOLTS Job Openings (Feb) — est. 6.890M, prev. 6.946M |
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Macro Snapshot · 02:52 ET
| 2Y |
3.80% |
+0bps |
10Y |
4.34% |
-10bps |
Spread |
+55bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
100.49 |
-0.02% |
VIX/3M |
1.05 |
Backwardation |
HY OAS |
7.48% |
+0.18% |
| BTC |
$67,390 |
+1.0% |
ETH |
$2,058 |
+1.7% |
ETH/BTC |
0.0305 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
02:52 ET |
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From the Desk · BEAR Day 19 (prev. close)
“The BEAR regime persists on day 19, with the S&P 500 down 0.23% and Nasdaq down 1.16%, as last month's picks underperformed with only 2/35 positive returns and an average return of -11.0%. Worth watching is the divergence between gold prices forecast by Goldman to reach $5,400 by year-end and the current market moves, particularly in the context of rising credit risk in Asia.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — @realDonaldTrump
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“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
19h ago
$USO$XLEDefenseEnergy Sector
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“Birthright Citizenship is not about rich people from China, and the rest of the World, who want their children, and hundreds of thousands more, FOR PAY, to ridiculously become citizens of the United States of America. It is about the BABIES OF SLAVES! We are the only Country in the World that dignifies this subject with even discussion. Look at the dates of this long ago legislation - THE EXACT END OF THE CIVIL WAR! The World is getting rich selling citizenships to our Country, while at the same time laughing at how STUPID our U.S. Court System has become (TARIFFS!). “Dumb Judges and Justices will not a great Country make!””
20h ago
$BABA$FXI$KWEB$SPY
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 02:52 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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AI
mixed
66
“The entire AI play, and most US stocks are dead”
WSB 5880 pts · 5/5 subs
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MSFT
mixed
31
“The "AI is dead because oil" guy has clearly never read an income statement”
WSB 1593 pts · 5/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
20
“How did WSB's stock picks of 2026 perform in Q1”
WSB 189 pts · 5/5 subs
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QQQ
mixed
19
“The entire AI play, and most US stocks are dead”
WSB 5880 pts · 5/5 subs
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BRO
mixed
17
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LNG
mixed
14
“How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out”
WSB 2680 pts · 3/5 subs
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NVDA
mixed
10
“The "AI is dead because oil" guy has clearly never read an income statement”
WSB 1593 pts · 5/5 subs
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FIX
mixed
10
“The Dow!!!”
SM 8948 pts · 4/5 subs
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Insider Wire |
1952 Form 4s filed · 02:49 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-03-25 to 2026-03-30
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Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
AVGO |
SAMUELI HENRY Director |
$250.0M |
| SELL |
CRWV |
McBee Brannin Chief Development Officer |
$11.9M |
| SELL |
KYMR |
Chadwick Jeremy G Chief Operating Officer |
$9.0M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$6.4M |
| SELL |
METC |
Lawrence Bryan H. Insider |
$5.8M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$4.3M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 02:52 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
33.4% |
4.8d |
+17.9% |
ELEVATED
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| BYND |
29.7% |
4.0d |
-9.4% |
ELEVATED
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| AMC |
22.4% |
4.0d |
-6.1% |
ELEVATED
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| SMCI |
19.7% |
3.6d |
+2.7% |
ELEVATED
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| TERN |
16.7% |
9.1d |
-2.3% |
ELEVATED
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| GME |
15.7% |
12.8d |
-4.0% |
ELEVATED
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| AAOI |
13.7% |
1.0d |
-3.0% |
LOW
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| RIVN |
13.6% |
4.4d |
+1.6% |
MODERATE
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Market Headlines |
6 sources · 02:49 ET |
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PLTR
$137.55
-2.8%
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Neutral
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| Composite 12 |
1M -5.2% |
3M -25.3% |
1Y +60.2% |
UP |
Palantir (PLTR) expanded its AI partnership with Stellantis, which halted production at a Mexico plant due to a supplier dispute, potentially mitigating production risks. PLTR's valuation is high, but its growth rate is also significant; the stock closed down 3.85% at $137.55. If growth slows or high valuation concerns resurface, PLTR could face selling pressure.
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AMD
$196.04
-1.9%
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Bearish
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| Composite 30 |
1M -1.3% |
3M -9.1% |
1Y +89.9% |
UP |
AMD closed at $196.04, a -2.95% move from the prior day, amid a broader semiconductor sector selloff. The company's revenue could take off with the launch of its next-generation chips, potentially driving growth in the second half of 2026. However, the market may be overestimating AMD's near-term prospects, and a sector-wide downturn could weigh on the stock.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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Earnings This Week |
Mar 30 – Apr 13 · 02:52 ET |
| Ticker |
Date |
Exp. Move |
| TERN <1d |
Mar 31 🌙 |
N/A |
| Merck's acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals for $53 per share in cash, valued at $6.7 billion, may overshadow TERN's upcoming earnings report on March 31. |
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Target |
| AMZN |
Buy |
71 / 5 / 0
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— |
| WMT |
Buy |
45 / 4 / 0
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— |
| NVDA |
Buy |
67 / 5 / 1
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— |
| MU |
Buy |
49 / 3 / 2
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— |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
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— |
| META |
Buy |
65 / 7 / 0
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— |
| AAOI |
Buy |
9 / 4 / 0
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— |
| AAPL |
Buy |
36 / 16 / 2
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— |
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| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| Apr 01 |
HMH
HMH Holding Inc
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— |
$266M |
| Apr 08 |
TMCR
Metals Royalty Co Inc.
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— |
— |
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Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 02:52 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
1,900,332 |
881,528 |
1,018,804 |
1.16
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$640C 65,661 vol |
| QQQ |
1,294,632 |
570,856 |
723,776 |
1.27
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$565C 46,273 vol |
| TSLA |
363,323 |
192,159 |
171,164 |
0.89
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$360C 30,485 vol |
| MU |
343,829 |
162,042 |
181,787 |
1.12
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$350C 14,538 vol |
| NVDA |
266,417 |
154,382 |
112,035 |
0.73
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$170C 56,362 vol |
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INTC
CSP
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
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$205B
· Earnings Jan 22
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| $36P |
18 DTE |
+37.2% ann. |
+11.8% OTM |
Δ 0.18 |
POP 82% |
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| Intel's stock price has surged 81% over the past year, sparking debate about whether it has run too far, according to simplywall.st. |
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UVXY
CSP
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
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$395M
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| $56P |
18 DTE |
+201.0% ann. |
+10.1% OTM |
Δ 0.34 |
POP 66% |
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| The VIX hit its highest level since October, contributing to UVXY's current movement as investors consider it a tactical hedge. |
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TQQQ
CSP
Safest
Very High · max 3%
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$21B
· Div 0.7%
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| $30P |
32 DTE |
+43.7% ann. |
+19.7% OTM |
Δ 0.18 |
POP 82% |
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| TQQQ is sliding toward $40 as a Nasdaq correction tests the leveraged QQQ trade, with Sherman Wealth Management acquiring 42,668 shares. |
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BMNR
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
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$8B
· Earnings Jan 13
· Div 0.1%
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| $20C |
45 DTE |
+80.7% ann. |
+9.6% OTM |
Δ 0.12 |
POP 88% |
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| BitMine's stock is rising due to its recent completion of the Pier Two acquisition, which expands its Ethereum staking capabilities. |
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UVIX
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
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$431M
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| $12C |
24 DTE |
+273.3% ann. |
+9.2% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
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| UVIX price action is critical for tactical trading, according to a report by Stock Traders Daily, likely driven by its 2x long VIX futures exposure. |
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VXF
CC
Safest
Low · max 1%
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$24B
· Earnings Feb 27
· Div 1.3%
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| $225C |
45 DTE |
+4.3% ann. |
+13.2% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
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| VXF is experiencing a surge as a small cap rotation is outpacing the S&P 500, according to 24/7 Wall St. |
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Protective Puts |
SPY $631 · QQQ $556 · 02:52 ET |
Cheapest puts at 5%, 8%, 12% OTM across 30/60-day expirations · /$100K = total hedge cost for $100K exposure
SPY Puts
| Strike |
OTM |
DTE |
Premium |
Per Contract |
/$100K |
| $600P |
5% |
30d |
$23.98 |
$2,398 |
3.80% |
| $580P |
8% |
30d |
$19.97 |
$1,997 |
3.17% |
| $555P |
12% |
30d |
$14.00 |
$1,400 |
2.22% |
| $600P |
5% |
60d |
$35.74 |
$3,574 |
5.67% |
| $580P |
8% |
60d |
$32.62 |
$3,262 |
5.17% |
| $555P |
12% |
60d |
$27.31 |
$2,731 |
4.33% |
| $600P |
5% |
90d |
$44.55 |
$4,455 |
7.07% |
| $580P |
8% |
90d |
$41.91 |
$4,191 |
6.65% |
| $555P |
12% |
90d |
$37.23 |
$3,723 |
5.90% |
QQQ Puts
| Strike |
OTM |
DTE |
Premium |
Per Contract |
/$100K |
| $530P |
5% |
30d |
$21.29 |
$2,129 |
3.83% |
| $510P |
8% |
30d |
$17.28 |
$1,728 |
3.11% |
| $490P |
12% |
30d |
$12.48 |
$1,248 |
2.24% |
| $530P |
5% |
60d |
$31.63 |
$3,163 |
5.69% |
| $510P |
8% |
60d |
$28.49 |
$2,849 |
5.12% |
| $490P |
12% |
60d |
$24.22 |
$2,422 |
4.36% |
| $530P |
5% |
90d |
$39.37 |
$3,937 |
7.08% |
| $510P |
8% |
90d |
$36.72 |
$3,672 |
6.60% |
| $490P |
12% |
90d |
$32.95 |
$3,295 |
5.93% |
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March 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
Mar 01 – Mar 30 (MTD) · Hit rate: 2/35 · Avg return: -11.0% · YTD: +0.4%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 8 months |
| Return |
+75.0% |
Ann. |
131.5% |
Sharpe |
6.62 |
Max DD |
0.0% |
| Win% |
100% |
Alpha |
+111.5% |
SPY |
+12.9% |
$100K → |
$174,982 |
| Full backtest · 2016-12–2026-02 · 111 months |
| Total |
2,617% |
Ann. |
42.9% |
Sharpe |
1.71 |
Max DD |
-12.8% |
| Win% |
72% |
Alpha |
+31.4% |
SPY |
173% |
$100K → |
$2,716,908 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| WMT |
22.7% |
-2.7% |
| JNJ |
16.7% |
-2.5% |
| SLVR |
14.2% |
-33.8% |
| MU |
13.2% |
-23.8% |
| XOM |
3.0% |
+11.7% |
| AAOI |
2.6% |
-18.9% |
| AHR |
2.4% |
-9.8% |
| EMEQ |
2.4% |
-15.9% |
| CNL |
2.4% |
-21.2% |
| LAR |
1.9% |
-19.1% |
| TERN |
1.8% |
+25.1% |
| NATO |
1.7% |
-16.3% |
| GAU |
1.3% |
-35.9% |
| FOWF |
1.2% |
-10.3% |
| GLD |
0.9% |
-15.4% |
| LLY |
0.9% |
-13.0% |
| PGR |
0.9% |
-6.1% |
| COST |
0.9% |
-0.6% |
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| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| MUX |
0.9% |
-33.8% |
| ANAB |
0.6% |
-0.4% |
| IDVZ |
0.6% |
-5.9% |
| NVDA |
0.5% |
-10.4% |
| AMZN |
0.5% |
-3.9% |
| TSLA |
0.5% |
-12.7% |
| BRK.B |
0.5% |
-1.1% |
| META |
0.5% |
-18.2% |
| AAPL |
0.5% |
-7.4% |
| JPM |
0.5% |
-4.9% |
| AVGO |
0.5% |
-8.5% |
| GOOGL |
0.5% |
-11.1% |
| MSFT |
0.5% |
-10.1% |
| NUKZ |
0.5% |
-15.0% |
| SHLD |
0.4% |
-11.4% |
| SPHR |
0.4% |
-7.5% |
| TEKX |
0.4% |
-15.7% |
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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